Last night BTC surged; it turns out it was speculation about interest rate cuts. However, recently, funds have not accumulated, and it is likely that the main players are using the news to drive the market up and entice more buyers.
Many people are shouting that the bull market is back; I cannot agree with this. From the perspective of retail investors, a rise means it's a bull market. From the perspective of the main players, it's not that simple. If they really want to prepare for a round of increases, there must first be sufficient turnover and accumulation, neither of which is present at the moment. Therefore, I will not adopt an overall bullish view, nor will I join the bulls.
Is there a possibility that suddenly good news will break out, and the market will start to rise broadly? The probability of this is almost nonexistent or very low. Because the cryptocurrency market is controlled by the main players and operators, if the operators haven't accumulated in advance, it's impossible for them to work for retail investors.
Therefore, I still choose to short at important resistance levels, but the funds accumulated last night have not left, so in the short term, it may not drop quickly. It might continue to surge, forming a double top or even a triple top.
Currently, the market situation is that BTC has dropped from 126,000 to around 80,000, and ETH has fallen from 4,900 to around 2,600. The current market is in a rebound after a decline. BTC rebounded to 94,000 from 80,000 and then retraced to the current level of around 90,000, resulting in a rebound of 14,000 points. The rebound has been quite strong. ETH rose from 2,624 to 3,240, with a rebound of 600 points, and has retraced to around 3,100 now.
To summarize, this increase is entirely a rebound after a significant drop; it is not a bull market or a major market rally. Therefore, the reason I am not bullish now is that the market cannot rise significantly. Even if it does, the upside is limited, and there are no favorable events in the market that could sustain a rally for half a month or a long time. Thus, going long is meaningless; this is why I am not bullish.
If there is going to be a rally, why is the market still so weak? Why is there no positive news driving the market continuously? Don't think that just because the price of cryptocurrencies is low, you should go long. I tell you, in a bear market, prices will only go lower.
If the market had not rebounded, I would definitely try going long to catch this rebound after the significant drop. However, the market is already in a rebound phase, and I had previously advised you to go long at the 80,000 rebound level, mentioning that this is a key position.
So now my thought is to find a high position to short. If I were to go long, I would need another significant drop from the current level; I might consider attempting a rebound. Other than that, I am a loyal bear. Finally, to summarize, if the market has significant positive news that can sustain a rally, then consider going long. Otherwise, it is better to short at highs. For intraday trading, still focus on the lowest and highest points on the four-hour chart for operations. This is my recent thought and overall direction, which you all can refer to or base your decisions on $BTC $ETH .
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates! Will Bitcoin skyrocket? Will Powell announce a large-scale printing plan? By the way, let's talk about the opportunities for ZEC and BCH.
Right now, the market is most concerned not about the interest rate cut, as it is already 100% priced in. What the market is concerned about is
1. Whether the Federal Reserve will announce a large-scale plan, commonly referred to as printing money, and 2. Powell's speech. It is possible that the announcement of the printing plan will happen; I estimate that the probability of it being implemented in March is quite high, depending on the economic situation.
Regarding subsequent interest rate cuts, I am quite sure that Powell will most likely take a hawkish stance, and the probability of a rate cut in January is very low. The only variable is the start time of the first printing plan; if it happens sooner, it will indeed give the market a surprise.
ZEC has started to rebound crazily from 300 and is currently at the first line of defense near 420. However, we successfully shorted it down to 300 before. This time, I tend to be more conservative and will place short orders at the resistance of 450-460; if it reaches, I will short it, if not, I will short other coins, very relaxed.
BCH is also declining again at the strong resistance of 600. We shorted it last week, from 600 down to around 550. This time, we have shorted it again and are already in profit, hoping to successfully take short-term profits near 550, such as at 560.
In the long run, BCH can actually be held onto, as there is still quite a bit of downward space. It just depends on when the bulls will take profits; its price will collapse just like ZEC.
ZEC took us nearly a month to short down, and BCH may not be so quick either. The whale needs to attract enough bulls before starting to reverse and reap profits. Our operations in the past few weeks have been quite profitable, and I hope everything goes smoothly this time too~$BCH $ZEC
The long position of this coin $CLO can basically be withdrawn, brothers who bought the dip after reading the posts should take the profits and be at ease, the long position at 0.22 has yielded enough by now, there is no need to hold out any longer $ETH
The long position of this coin $CLO can basically be withdrawn, brothers who bought the dip after reading the posts should take the profits and be at ease, the long position at 0.22 has yielded enough by now, there is no need to hold out any longer $ETH
@Binance Risk Buddy Hello, please take a look at my account. It has been over a month, and I haven't done anything, yet my withdrawal has been prohibited.
Binance Risk Buddy
--
👋 Hey there! Welcome to Binance Risk Buddy!
Think of us as your go-to risk helper—here to help you spot and deal with risk issues, and share easy-to-understand tips to keep your Binance journey safe and smooth. Got questions or something to share about risk? Just @ us or drop a comment anytime — we're always around to help and keep the community safe together!
Can you take a look at my account? I've had a withdrawal frozen for a month, and now 2000u is frozen again. Can you show me @Binance Risk Buddy? I haven't cheated and I'm not a studio; I can provide all relevant evidence.
Binance Risk Buddy
--
👋 Hey there! Welcome to Binance Risk Buddy!
Think of us as your go-to risk helper—here to help you spot and deal with risk issues, and share easy-to-understand tips to keep your Binance journey safe and smooth. Got questions or something to share about risk? Just @ us or drop a comment anytime — we're always around to help and keep the community safe together!
Exclusive benefits for fans are here🎁 Exclusive red envelopes for fans🧧 Limited quantity, first come first served🧧 Exclusive for fans $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调