Crypto cryptic 2050

Bitcoin prices were capped on Friday at a descending trendline formed by connecting multiple highs since early October, subsequently falling nearly 7% and retesting Monday's $85,569 support level. This trendline coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the October all-time high of $126,199) makes it a key resistance level. Bitcoin continued its decline as of Tuesday, trading near $86,100.

If Bitcoin continues its pullback and closes below $85,569 (coinciding with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level), it could fall further to the psychological level of $80,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 36, below its neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening. Furthermore, the MACD indicator formed a death cross on Tuesday, further supporting the downtrend. If Bitcoin's price rebounds, it could potentially return above $90,000.

$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)

When trading Futures, most traders only care about Entry price and Leverage. But there is a factor more critical to account survival during a crash Collateral Type. Derivatives money flow is split into two main categories: USDT-Margined (Using Stablecoin as collateral) and Coin-Margined (Using the Coin itself as collateral). Misunderstanding them exposes you will face double risks.
🔸 USDT-Margined, this is the modern market standard. You use USDT to Long, Short BTC.
No matter how Bitcoin price fluctuates, 1 USDT in your margin wallet is always 1 dollar.When Price Drops you only suffer losses on the position PnL. The risk is linear and easy to calculate.
🔸 Coin-Margined, this is the graveyard for many traders in a Downtrend. You use BTC to Long BTC.
Suppose you Long BTC. When BTC price crashes:Your Long position goes negative.The value of the BTC you used as collateral also drops.Liquidation Price arrives twice as fast as you calculated. The exchange liquidates you sooner because your collateral value is evaporating rapidly.When Coin-Margined OI is high, crashes are extremely brutal. Because upon liquidation, the exchange must sell the collateral onto the market 👉 Creating more sell pressure 👉 Price drops further 👉 More liquidations.
🔹 When to use Coin-M? Only when you are a Longterm Holder looking to Short for Hedging. When price drops, you profit in BTC from the Short, offsetting the drop in BTC price 👉 Preserving USD value.
When to use USDT-M? In all shortterm speculation cases. Keep your collateral in Stablecoin for psychological stability.Do not be greedy using Coin-M to Long in an Uptrend hoping for compound profit . When the market turns, compound profit turns into compound loss" and wipes out your account.

Be honest, have you ever blown up a Coin-M account because you did not account for the collateral value dropping?
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.

Something broke in Bitcoin's code on October 6, 2025.

Not the protocol. The analytical frameworks that have guided fifteen years of cycle trading.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index collapsed to zero on November 6. All ten components simultaneously bearish. This has occurred exactly once before in history: January 2023, when Bitcoin traded at $16,000.

The indicator is flashing capitulation readings while Bitcoin trades above $85,000.

The machines are seeing something the humans refuse to acknowledge.

Consider what the validated data reveals:

NUPL at 0.39, the lowest since October 2023.

Long-term holders distributed 761,000 BTC in thirty days, the second-largest monthly outflow in recorded history.

ETF ecosystem AUM collapsed from $169.5 billion to $120.7 billion in sixty days. November alone: $3.79 billion in net outflows.

BlackRock's IBIT recorded $2.7 billion in redemptions over five weeks. The "permanent institutional bid" became permanent institutional selling.

The October liquidity event liquidated $19.13 billion across 1.6 million traders in forty minutes. Order book depth collapsed 98%. Bid-ask spreads expanded 1,321 times.

Yet six classical cycle-top indicators remain untriggered. Pi Cycle silent. Rainbow Chart in accumulation zone. Reserve Risk green.

The 200-week moving average sits at $56,291, not the $80,000 figure circulating in research reports. Someone confused metrics. The error propagated everywhere.

Tomorrow the Bank of Japan hikes to 0.75%, the highest rate since 1995. Markets price 98% probability.

Every previous BOJ hike triggered 23-31% Bitcoin declines.

The cycle either ended without triggering any classical indicator, a first in history, or transformed into something our frameworks cannot comprehend.

The reckoning is not coming.

It is here.
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