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2025 Performance:
Silver: 130%
Gold: 65%
Copper: 35%
NASDAQ: 20%
S&P 500: 16%
Russell 2000: 13%
BTC: -6%
ETH: -12%
Other cryptocurrencies: -42%
The crypto market has officially become the worst-performing asset of 2025.

Four-Year Myth or Reality: Why Bitcoin is Writing a Brutal 70% Crash
Despite ongoing claims that market maturity has neutralized traditional patterns, Bitcoin is currently following its four-year halving cycle with eerie precision. Historically, Bitcoin peaked distinctly in the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2021, and this trajectory aligns perfectly with the historical highs expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. For professional market analysts, this cyclical symmetry indicates that the current distribution phase is not a random drop, but rather the beginning of a structural macro adjustment.
Data-driven predictions suggest that major bear market resets typically take about 365 days to reach exhaustion. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be a clear price bottom before the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the potential start of the subsequent four-year ascent. If historical pullbacks of around 70% repeat, Bitcoin is mathematically destined to bottom within the liquidity zone of $40,000 to $50,000. Smart money has already begun to shift; successful traders have liquidated significant positions to stay on the sidelines, waiting for this anticipated window. Before this sell-off occurs, the most viable strategy is to tactically short rebounds rather than accumulate too early. $BTC

75 million dollars stop-loss: Why even top whales succumb to market volatility
A masterclass on disciplined risk management has just unfolded on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, as one of the platform's most successful traders executed a massive withdrawal. This whale closed a significant long position of 25,000 ETH worth approximately 75 million dollars by triggering a strategic stop-loss. This decision resulted in a realized loss of 2.1 million dollars, occurring right as the market saw a minor rebound. While retail traders often view stop-losses as failures, for institutional players, it is a key tool for protecting capital during unpredictable structural changes.
This liquidation marks the decisive end of the trader's impressive twelve-trade winning streak. Despite suffering this multi-million dollar setback, the entity remains a dominant force in the ecosystem, with cumulative profits on Hyperliquid still reaching 23.9 million dollars. This event underscores a key reality in the current market dynamics: even in high-conviction setups, the path to sustained profitability requires the humility to exit before losing trades evolve into catastrophic drawdowns. The whale's ability ensures that their liquidity remains intact for the next major cycle. $ETH

The Great Turnaround: Has the Sovereign Power of Gold Replaced the Momentum of Bitcoin?
2025 witnessed a significant and surprising shift in the relative strength of digital versus physical safe-haven assets, significantly affecting the ratio of Bitcoin to gold. This ratio experienced a sharp decline of 50% over the year, marking a significant outperformance of traditional metals.
The rise in gold was driven by sustained sovereign purchases, with central banks setting record total purchase volumes. This aggressive accumulation, coupled with strong ETF inflows into the metal, created intense upward pressure. $PAXG
In contrast, the momentum of Bitcoin has significantly weakened. The core factors driving this cooling demand are twofold: significant outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, suggesting institutional distribution, and heavy selling pressure from long-term holders. This divergence indicates that the market environment temporarily favors gold's promise of stability and the central bank-driven narrative, rather than Bitcoin's inherent volatility, fundamentally challenging the narrative of BTC as a superior store of value in 2025. $BTC

$BTC 《The Paradox of 85K: Why Positive Long-term Narratives Fail Under Short-term Liquidity Shocks
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is experiencing a typical market dislocation, sharply dropping to the edge of the $85,000 support zone. Although the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, short-term pricing is rapidly deteriorating due to a perfect storm of negative factors.
This downward pressure can be understood as the simultaneous overlay of five major structural forces: worsening liquidity expectations (tightening financial conditions), weakened demand-side dynamics, continued outflows from ETFs, widespread deleveraging, and a generally low liquidity trading environment. If any two of these factors are missing, the market may maintain upward momentum in December.
Considering the current uncertainty, including the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, key U.S. inflation/employment data releases, and volatile ETF liquidity, the basic scenario should involve high volatility, range-bound oscillation, and a slight downward bias. Without sustained positive demand-side improvements (such as continued net inflows into ETFs, favorable news on interest rate cuts, or broad recovery in risk assets), sustained unilateral upward movement is highly unlikely.
Risk management advice:
Analysts recommend reducing risk exposure without panic selling. A prudent approach is to first determine your maximum acceptable drawdown over the next month (e.g., -20% or -30%). Based on this, consider lowering your overall cryptocurrency allocation from the usual 80% to 60%-70% (prioritizing accumulation of stablecoins to reach 30%-40%), and as a reinvestment condition when ETF inflows stabilize or $BTC prices remain firm. The goal is to reduce anxiety while patiently observing structural changes.

Vietnam's 0.1% Crypto Tax: A $100 Million Regulatory Game Changer?
The National Assembly of Vietnam has approved a landmark amendment to the personal income tax law, introducing a 0.1% tax rate on all digital asset transfer transactions, effective July 1, 2026. This significant legislation marks the first formal inclusion of cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum) into the national tax framework.
The tax mechanism is similar to that applied to gold bars and stock transfers: it is levied based on the total value of the transaction, regardless of whether the transaction results in a profit or loss.
This regulatory initiative aligns with the broader mission outlined in Resolution No. 05 issued by the government on September 9, 2025, aimed at piloting and strictly controlling the emerging crypto asset market. Academic research indicates that domestic crypto trading volume exceeds hundreds of billions of dollars annually. At a 0.1% tax rate, assuming the current market size remains unchanged, this tax could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in budget revenue each year. $ETH
Additionally, the new law follows the codification of 'digital assets' in the Digital Technology Industry Law in June 2025, which legally categorizes assets into three types (virtual assets, crypto assets, and other digital assets). The government also plans to authorize five domestic crypto exchanges and establish a Crypto Asset Market Management Committee under the National Securities Commission to ensure strict regulatory oversight and investor protection. $BTC

Strategic Exclusion: Does Washington still view Bitcoin as speculative noise rather than a national security infrastructure?
The new national security strategy released by the Trump administration has left the crypto community quite disappointed, as it clearly overlooks Bitcoin and blockchain technology. The document focuses almost exclusively on "core" technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and quantum computing, which are crucial for maintaining America's global technological edge.
This exclusion is perplexing analytically, as the government's friendly stance towards the industry throughout the year has been evident. Recent supportive actions include withdrawing controversial policies from the Biden era, establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, forming a dedicated crypto task force within the Securities and Exchange Commission, and actively promoting the GENIUS Act for stablecoin legislation.
The omission of cryptocurrency in a top-tier security strategy document indicates a fundamental disconnect in Washington's perception. It suggests that despite favorable changes in the regulatory environment, policymakers still primarily regard Bitcoin as a speculative financial asset rather than a strategic infrastructure layer—one that is essential for long-term national competitiveness and digital sovereignty. This oversight brings risks that could limit the strategic integration of blockchain advantages into America's technological dominance. $BTC

The National Bank of the United States has obtained the right to act as an intermediary for cryptocurrency transactions.
In a groundbreaking decision by the U.S. financial sector released on December 9, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirmed that national banks can serve as intermediaries for "risk-free" cryptocurrency transactions. This means banks can purchase crypto assets from one client and simultaneously sell them to another client without taking significant risks on their balance sheets. The decision is elaborated in explanatory letter 1188, based on an analysis of four factors: similarities to traditional banking, benefits to customers, the nature of the risks, and state-level legality.
This initiative is part of a broader deregulation of crypto assets in 2025. Previously, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) lifted pre-approval requirements for certain crypto activities, while the Federal Reserve System (Fed) incorporated crypto regulation into standard procedures, abandoning special plans for "new activities." Now, banks like JPMorgan or Bank of America can legally act as brokers in transactions involving Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins, thus enhancing market liquidity.
Experts predict this will accelerate the integration of cryptocurrencies into the mainstream banking system, lower transaction costs, and strengthen competition with cryptocurrency exchanges. However, regulators emphasize risk management: cybersecurity, volatility, and anti-money laundering protocols. For investors, this signals an increased trust in digital assets — the crypto market has grown by 25% since the beginning of the year.
#美联储降息 $BTC

Non-Quantitative Easing, Non-2019: Why the Federal Reserve's $40 Billion Treasury Bill Operations Signal Macro Pressure for BTC and SPX
The Federal Reserve has decided to resume purchasing short-term Treasury bills, injecting approximately $40 billion into the market each month starting December 12. This decision has drawn comparisons to the late 2019 'Non-Quantitative Easing' event. While the tool remains unchanged—essentially expanding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—the underlying driving factors are fundamentally different, signaling potential divergence for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTC).
The 2019 intervention was a purely technical fix to a liquidity crisis in the repo market, occurring against a backdrop of strong economic growth and historically low unemployment rates. In contrast, the 2025 plan is being implemented in the context of macro pressures: slowing growth, credit tightening, and an unemployment rate that has been rising for nearly two years. This time, the 'why' is economic weakness, not just pipeline issues. This distinction indicates that while the liquidity injections of 2019 strongly propelled BTC and SPX upward, the current environment—characterized by deteriorating fundamentals—may prevent a simple repeat of that price behavior, making the upcoming unemployment rate data (December 16) a key metric for assessing the effectiveness of the intervention.

Ethereum exchange supply reaches a ten-year low, indicating potential volatility
Ethereum ($ETH ) supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) has dropped to just 8.7%, the lowest level recorded since the network launched in 2015. This historic decrease reflects a strong and persistent trend of users moving ETH to cold storage or decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, suggesting high confidence among long-term holders.
Analysts point out that this significant tightening of liquidity could become a powerful catalyst for major price fluctuations. When demand inevitably returns to the market, the limited available supply on exchanges could trigger a rapid and strong rebound. This dynamic indicates that Ethereum is currently poised for price volatility due to extremely low liquid supply.

Italy requires cryptocurrency companies to urgently transition to MiCAR by 2025.
Italy has become one of the first countries in the EU to strictly advance the regulation of the cryptocurrency market (MiCAR). The decree No. 218/2024, published on December 30, 2024, will come into effect on January 1, 2025: all cryptocurrency companies cooperating with Italian residents (exchanges, custodial wallets, stablecoins, NFT platforms) must obtain a CASP (Cryptocurrency Asset Service Provider) license within 6 months (by June 30, 2025), or they will cease operations in the country.
The regulatory body designated is the Organismo Agenti e Mediatori (OAM), which is already conducting public VASP registrations. Fines for non-compliance can be as high as 10 million euros or 15% of annual turnover. The requirements for stablecoin issuers are particularly strict: 1:1 reserves, monthly audits, and a ban on algorithmic tokens without bank licenses.
By December 2025, only 87 companies have applied for MiCAR licenses out of more than 400 companies that previously operated in Italy. Binance, Crypto.com, and Kraken have confirmed their transformation, while some smaller participants have announced their exit from the market.
Italy is effectively testing the strictest scenario of MiCAR in the EU. If Rome does not soften its stance, over 70% of small crypto services may leave Italian users by the summer of 2026.

Binance shocks the crypto community: launches crypto earning service for children.
The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has announced the launch of Binance Kids Earn—a product designed specifically for children aged 8 and above, allowing them to earn through stablecoins and learning tokens under parental supervision. The service will start on December 3, 2025, and is available in 47 countries.
Parents create sub-accounts for their children, funding them with USDT or BUSD, while children choose 'learning tasks': watching a 3-minute blockchain video, taking quizzes, and earning up to 8% annual interest in stablecoins. All operations must be monitored by parents: fund withdrawals can only be transferred to parents' wallets.
Binance positions this product as 'the first step towards financial literacy in the Web3 era.' Over 180,000 child accounts were registered on the first day. Experts say this initiative is revolutionary, but regulators are already preparing to inquire: the EU and the US are investigating whether this product complies with child protection laws.
Binance Kids Earn – not just about making money, this is a new era of crypto education.

Yearn Finance successfully recovered $2.4 million after the attack, but the hacker transferred the funds to Tornado Cash
The Yearn Finance team achieved its first victory in the race to recover assets, successfully tracking and reclaiming $2.4 million of an estimated total loss of nearly $9 million. The attack stemmed from a computational vulnerability that allowed the hacker to mint almost unlimited amounts of yETH, which were then used to extract liquidity from Curve's yETH stable swap and yETH-WETH pool. $YFI
Despite the initial recovery success, the complex "rescue" operation faces significant obstacles. Reports confirm that the attacker quickly transferred at least 1,000 ETH and an undisclosed amount of liquid-staked tokens to the notorious mixer Tornado Cash. The use of this anonymous tool severely complicates the follow-up tracking and recovery of the remaining stolen funds. This incident marks the third security vulnerability targeting Yearn since 2021, comparable in complexity to the recent Balancer hack. $ETH

The whale from the era of Satoshi Nakamoto has almost liquidated all of its ETH holdings after a brief pause.
An ancient Ethereum whale, who acquired a large amount of ETH during the Initial Coin Offering (ICO), has now resumed selling and has nearly liquidated all of their remaining balance. On-chain analysts have tracked the movements of this "ancient whale," who initially held 254,900 ETH from the ICO.
After a week of pause, this whale transferred an additional 3,000 ETH, worth 8.4 million dollars, to the exchange. Over the past week, this original investor has deposited a total of 23,000 ETH to the exchange. If these tokens are sold entirely, this whale will realize a considerable profit of about 66.53 million dollars, as their acquisition cost was extremely low, at just 0.31 dollars per ETH. After this latest sale, the address holds only 69.83 ETH, worth approximately 195,000 dollars, marking the near complete dissolution of a historic position. $ETH

The profitability of Bitcoin mining has fallen to a record low, pushing the industry into a critical stage of survival competition. According to the report from the Miner Weekly, the sharp decline in Bitcoin prices in November caused revenue per unit of hash rate to plummet from $55 per PH/s to just $35. This figure is now below the estimated average total cost of most listed mining companies at around $44 per PH/s.
As the overall network hash rate climbs to 1.1 ZH/s, the payback period for the latest mining equipment now exceeds 1000 days, far exceeding the countdown to the next halving event. In response, miners are prioritizing financial prudence: CleanSpark recently paid off its Bitcoin mortgage and raised over $1 billion, while Cipher and TeraWulf jointly raised over $5 billion in the fourth quarter. This industry-wide deleveraging and liquidity protection initiative marks the beginning of a new, highly selective survival cycle. $BTC

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The cryptocurrency industry has experienced a devastating "Black November," recording approximately 15 significant attacks with total losses nearing $194 million. According to PeckShield's analysis, this figure represents an astonishing 969% increase compared to the $18.18 million lost in October.
The enormous scale of the losses was driven by several large-scale exploitation events. Balancer v2 and its forks suffered the biggest hit, accounting for total losses of $137.4 million, although a portion of this ($39 million) was successfully recovered. Other significant victims include the exchange Upbit, with losses of $36 million, Yearn Finance with losses of $9 million, and HLP, which faces a loss of $4.95 million due to bad debts. Additionally, GANA PayFi was exploited, resulting in a loss of $3.1 million. This dramatic rise in the number of successful attacks highlights the persistent security vulnerabilities within the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

#Visa has announced a strategic partnership with digital asset company Aquanow to utilize stablecoins (such as USDC) for payment processing in the Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EEMEA) region. The main goal of this collaboration is to significantly reduce costs and shorten the settlement time for international transfers, achieving 24/7 payment liquidity while bypassing the traditional multi-intermediary banking system.
Stablecoins are rapidly transitioning from crypto-native tools to mainstream financial solutions. This trend is further supported by major traditional financial institutions: for example, the German stock exchange Deutsche Börse is preparing to integrate euro-backed stablecoins into its custody and settlement infrastructure. Although the regulatory framework is still under discussion, the clear institutional push from giants like Visa indicates that stablecoins are becoming a core modern solution for efficient global payment systems. $USDC