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Keep it up with the jokes—what are the US stocks betting on? Is it the news, the sentiment, the good side of things, or something else? Or, are people betting on earnings reports? Shouldn’t asking these questions of Doubao and GPT be enough?

US stocks have categories, of course. There’s the AI hype—when storage demand surges, SanDisk and Micron’s stock prices perfectly reflect it.

Some say “there’s an AI bubble” 🫧. But if there were no bubble, how would you make money? A bubble is just money. Saying there’s no bubble is basically you’re not on the train—you’re afraid to chase the price increase; in the end it’s just that you don’t have money. The key point is that you’re scared.

If you say storage has topped out, or that there’s a bubble—where exactly is the top, where exactly is the bubble? Explain it for me. If you can’t explain it clearly, then there’s no logic. What nonsense is this—just talk with a hammer 🔨.

Let me give an example.

You’re familiar with those small yellow bikes, right—OFO? Mobike? HelloBike? Hello Qingju (Qingju)? When a brand starts to take off, user numbers surge, bringing revenue to upstream bike manufacturers. And manufacturing bikes also boosts other industries, like bearings and steel, right?

But when the small yellow bikes fall and those city bike factories leave behind piles of OFO, is that right? At this point, a few brands rise up and start fighting each other, right? In the end, only a few remain. Finally, total production surges into overcapacity—that’s the whole process.

Back to US stocks: have AI companies started fighting wars yet? I don’t think we’re at that stage. So storage will still be in short supply. It’s just real demand—basic necessity. When these AI companies begin to slaughter each other, a huge batch of companies will inevitably go under. At that point, will the technologies and chips they have right now still be useful? Will they sell them to the winners? When the winners consolidate resources, will chips still be as in-demand as they are now? Or will it turn into capacity oversupply.

The battle is only just beginning—nothing has topped out yet. There’s no “top” from the battle that hasn’t even really started. It’s an emotions-driven trading range—hesitation, endless talk, like the surging river of two banks—waves after waves until the slaughter begins.

It’s fine—ask GPT more. Don’t go researching wildly. Because you didn’t study deeply enough; once you lose money, you naturally research more. The more you research, the more you understand. And the more you understand, the more your cognition improves—that’s the process, which is unavoidable.

Keep posting tricks: the stuff about technicals, indicators, trends, take profit and stop loss—what on earth is all this? Is analysis really useful? Are you sure it doesn’t depend on price and volume? Is it really easy for BTC and ETH to run? I summarize some methods. They’re not “tech” exactly. I don’t like to just go straight in and rant. I’ll outclass any technical-indicator analysis. I don’t trade BTC—doesn’t mean I won’t trade. Since I spoke, please read it carefully. What’s called “technical analysis” isn’t worth much compared to methods.

A thousand people, a thousand faces—it's hard to satisfy everyone. There’s no right or wrong in anything. “Right and wrong” is just something your subjective mind gives to it. As for what’s right or wrong—it varies from person to person.

The screenshots in the picture are of BTC and ETH. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the 8-hour chart trend of BTC and ETH. Figure 3 is my ETH 4-hour chart trend. Look closely: whenever you enter a long position at any point, your stop loss is still placed at the lowest point of the previous swing-level K-line. For example, in Figure 1 and Figure 2, we’re looking at 8-hour K-lines. Then whether you enter at any 8-hour K-line, you set the stop loss at the low of that previous level. In that case, during this upswing, you can’t possibly miss it.

In Figure 3, it’s ETH on the 4-hour level. Whether you enter on any 4-hour or 8-hour K-line, your stop loss is always at the low of the preceding K-line. If you don’t get stopped out, how could you possibly fail to hold until it rises how much? Is this “secret”? Is this “technical”? Do you need to draw lines? Do you need to look at K-lines? Do you need to know indicators? What’s needed?

Is this a secret? Is this technical? I’m not saying it—who would publish it? Or most people just wouldn’t. Next, whoever explains these methods—those folks are younger. Alright? Since I dare to output it, I’m not afraid you’ll copy it. Bring it on. Or you can also tell what you know.

Let’s get into it, let’s all roll up our sleeves—I want to learn, I want to improve. Seniors, please teach me.

When a trend comes, you won’t be stopped out. If you’re stopped out, that can only mean it’s not a trend.

When BTC dropped 120,000, during the rebound the peak didn’t continue breaking the previous rebound peak—doesn’t that just mean an empty (bearish) trend?

From a rebound around 50,000 to 60,000, if the rebounds keep breaking the previous rebound highs—doesn’t that just mean a bullish trend?

If you say it will drop three tens of thousands and rise to forty thousand, and you provide accurate exact levels—actually that’s just looking at the weekly chart, referencing past movement, the dense trading zones, and the institutional entry points. Isn’t that it? Is drawing a line all it takes to be “high level”? No, I think it’s really low. Who can guarantee it will definitely go down? Aren’t stop loss and take profit used to get hit? And aren’t moving average indicators used to break through too?

Keep the jokes going—everyone wants to learn how to read volume, right? Come on, straight to the practical stuff. Isn’t reading volume simple?

Figure 1-2-3: a company with a market cap of 30 million rises 10% plus volume of 3 million. Does this count as volume? Of course it does. Don’t rush—I haven’t said the key point yet.

Figure 4: a stock with a market cap of tens of billions, with the same percentage gain, but it prints 75 million volume. Then if you don’t look at market cap, which volume is better?

A 5 million or a 100 million market cap—on the 15-minute chart, it prints 1 million volume. It keeps releasing 1 million volume continuously and keeps increasing. Now tell me, does this count as volume? At this moment, market cap doesn’t matter anymore—volume is the only thing that matters. Volume can prove that big money is operating. Decide for yourself whether it will rise or fall.

First scenario: a 10% rise with 1.5 million volume. Generally, when price rises, volume first expands in sync with price. So we treat it as an actual rise. As long as it keeps going up, even on pullbacks it can still rise, and the volume will continue to grow.

Second scenario: a 10% rise with only 500,000 volume. In most cases, it’s probably a pump-and-dump to lure people in. It basically rises from where it started and then drops back to where it came from.

Third scenario: a 10% rise with 1 million volume. Next it keeps going up—5% more with 3 million volume, and then 5 million volume. Tell me—will it rise? Or will it fall? Do your own research.

The market has no absolute right or wrong. The market is always right. People, however, will be right or wrong. Only gods won’t make mistakes—are humans always wrong? The so-called “master who always makes money” is a god.

For an article with this depth, the “everlasting master” should write one for me. If I don’t write it, no one else will, right? But I wrote it—so come imitate me. And then you want to step on me again, is that it? Take it and don’t thank me. Don’t ignore me.

When a certain host recommends a coin to you, and as long as the trading volume is below 1 million, you should know: that’s them coming to eat your liquidity. You’re the grass (a target), and they’re here to eat you.

If someone who has long been doing the big talk suddenly recommends a shanzhai coin (an imitation) out of nowhere—think about what the reason is. Are you their fan, or are you the grass, or is it just that you are their liquidity?

I’ll say it: I’m willing to go head-to-head. If you don’t agree, come fire at me. What I said—is it right or wrong? You decide.

Brothers, pay attention to @0x派大星 . Next, he will also go live. A first-hand bring-up, brothers—please give him a follow and see how his livestream is. Welcome to leave your suggestions.

Keep teasing, today I’ll only talk about “Yao Coins,” okay? The methods I talked about earlier are just hindsight after the fact. Has anyone told you which Yao Coins are coming next? This statement is specifically about the Yao Coins that are coming next. I can give you a method and a filter so you can narrow it down—so you can stand out among 600 shanzhai coins and catch the move quickly.

Let me make one thing clear: everything I say is based on my own experience. I won’t imitate anyone. I came up with the concrete playbook first, and I shared all my insights first. What I said today is: after this, if I talk about my method again—that would be imitation, right? If it looks like imitation, then so be it.

As for whether Yao Coins or other shanzhai coins will rise, the first thing is volume and price. When you understand volume and price, at the very least you’ll know how you’re losing money and how you’re making money. When you can read volume and price, your choice of targets will shrink from 600 down to 6—filtering out 99% of the junk directly.

Yao Coin, first point:

Alpha (on-chain). It has no spot. There are futures contracts. The chips are concentrated, and it’s easy to control the market.

Yao Coin, second point:

After listing, it goes through a sell-off and washout, and then returns to the opening price. During the breakout phase, once it makes a new high, it then becomes endless new highs.

Yao Coin, third point:

Technical analysis for any shanzhai coin doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is volume and price. If there is volume and price, it means there is capital operating it—then there will be volatility, and we’ll have opportunities.

Yao Coin, fourth point:

Open interest. If open interest is greater than 50% of the market cap, then it’s impossible for it to become a Yao Coin. The chips aren’t concentrated enough; futures open interest isn’t concentrated enough; there are too many retail traders. If retail funds are greater than the main force, then either it gets washed out or abandoned.

Yao Coin, fifth point:

Trading fees. Before a new high, if trading volume suddenly expands significantly, but the price doesn’t make a new high—yet the volume makes a new high—and the funding rate is -1% or -2%, or it changes from every 4 hours to every 1 hour—then pay attention: the main force is either going to explode upward, or plunge hard downward. Sideways movement is almost zero.

Yao Coin, sixth point:

Daily unlocks. In the recent period, if there hasn’t been any big unlock, and the project team doesn’t break promises and doesn’t have non-substantial unlocks—only if it meets these conditions could it have a chance to become a Yao Coin.

All the statements above are drunk talk, for reference only, and don’t have real significance.

MAGMA关AAAA

US关注AAAA

UAI关注AAA

VELVET关注AAA

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Remember: as long as there is spot, the basics don’t need to be considered, and there is no possibility—only look at coins without spot and with futures contracts.

Go out wearing pajamas; in such hot weather you still have to sunbathe. Granny doesn't care and Uncle doesn't love him. He says sunbathing can help you get calcium.

Drop a curveball—many people are into memes. There are just too many “level-one” memes. If you’re lucky enough to catch one, it might multiply by hundreds or even thousands, but the number of people who actually catch one is extremely small. The market maker will use the butterfly effect to build hype: once they push, people rush in like moths to a flame.

“Level-two” memes are even easier to understand. The meme pioneer has to be doge. Next comes shib, then pepe, and then pengu—its Chinese name is “Bilibili life” (币安人生). For everything else, you don’t need to look.

So when choosing a target, the things mentioned above are what we should choose—not picking random low-market-cap options like hippos, squirrels, cats, pigs, etc. You might think a low market cap means higher upside, but don’t forget: it’s the market’s choice that’s right, and your choice may not be. A meme that survives after being washed and filtered by the market, still has a not-too-low market cap, and has real liquidity/spot trading availability—of course it used to be extremely popular. That’s the best candidate to consider.

So who are the big shots behind each meme? And who are the institutions? For example, behind doge is Musk. That’s one reason many people like playing dogecoin: they’re partly going after Musk as the “pusher.” Musk’s companies have a combined market cap exceeding one trillion (US$). So when Musk pushes doge, people will also use this method to extrapolate and imagine doge reaching a trillion.

Shib is a product of the previous bull market, and pepe is a product of the one before that. So if we’re playing memes, I think buying one doge is enough—and pepe is also worth considering.

Meme selection depends on attention/heat, order flow, and depth. You’ll find that the memes mentioned above all match these criteria very well. As for other memes? Take a quick look—you’ll basically know some of them should have been delisted long ago.

Small market caps exist for a reason. Don’t think you can just “lay in wait” and nail the entry. In a bear market, steadiness is the only rule. In a bull market, being more aggressive is fine. So when choosing a target, you have to distinguish whether you want to hold long-term or for the short term.

When the heat of a large market-cap meme comes in, it usually can last about a week. With small market-cap memes, it’s mostly driven by sentiment. Most memes don’t have a “market maker,” so there’s also no need for a planned buildup. The key is that in the future, it may not have any heat at all. If you buy in, you basically won’t see any waves 🌊—it just sinks straight to the bottom.

Keep the jokes coming—copycat coin picks and sector categorization aren’t actually that hard. The prerequisite is to understand the sector categories clearly. Then you’ll know who will rise with the move, and which coins belong to the same sector.

In normal logic, when the Big Cake pump happens, Ethereum also pumps—does that logic hold? If XRP rises, then XLM should also rise; they’re in the same sector and have deep roots, after all, the two founders previously co-founded XRP.

As for the anonymous sector, it’s basically three coins: DASH, ZEC, and XRM. ZEN used to be part of it too, but it has since pivoted—so just focus on the anonymous three great ones and ignore the rest.

AI sector tokens are numerous. We don’t need to study too much. WLD, FET, TAO—pay attention only to these. Actually, FET is a “three-in-one” coin, so it’s also not that useful; you can ignore it. Just focus on WLD and TAO.

For the staking sector, focus on ETHFI and LDO; you don’t need to关注 anything else. With this setup, when one goes up the other follows—doesn’t that make it simple?

For the lending sector, it’s AAVE and MORPHO. The former has had issues, but it has gone through two cycles of bull and bear. The latter’s back-end is strongly supported by institutions, while the former serves mostly retail users.

For the oracle sector, LINK and PYTH are enough. Also, you can directly ignore API3, UMA, and TRB—just know which coins they are. Once your categorization is clear, when the行情 arrives you can quickly find the corresponding coins.

For the NFT sector: TNSR, ME, and BLUR—only these three. When the heat comes, you can quickly spot the relevant coins. Time is money.

Spot is spot; alpha is alpha; futures are futures. Spot + futures generally won’t have a huge upside unless it’s a long-term sustainable trend hotspot—for example, DEFI, metaverse games, or MEME—where a hundredfold move can appear. Currently, the probability of a hundredfold occurring via on-chain + futures is high, and the key feature is that you can’t have spot involvement.

So about knowledge points: it’s not just about learning—you also need to learn through losses. The more you lose, the more experience you gain, and naturally you’ll get it. Losing money is your most expensive tuition in life. The market is the best teacher. Other people teaching you might not work out—you’re just trying to avoid fewer detours, not that you won’t take them.

The market is like a strict father. You should study hard, get a good major, and work diligently. You shouldn’t start a business—there’s a pit up ahead, don’t jump into it. So we’ll all step on the pits and still jump into them; the detours have to be taken too.

Continue to play the jokes while using “technology” logic. As long as you can explain it with logic, then it’s a technique. Use letters in the pattern of the走势, add some terms that confuse beginners.

V-shaped: drop down, then come back up into a V. Whether it’s a deep V or a big V—those are just memes. You don’t need to memorize the memes; the patterns themselves don’t help much for you.

M-shaped: it represents a double-top structure. When you see a high point, a pullback to test it, and then the market forms a new high that matches the previous one, isn’t that just an M? As long as it doesn’t break out or fails to hold, the M forms.

U-shaped: a curved base—when the market draws out a U-shaped arc and then forms an upward trend (⬆️), we remember these shapes. Once you see this kind of pattern, the probability of moving upward increases, and we can catch the opportunity.

W-shaped: it represents a double-bottom structure. When a double-bottom forms, the market will most likely move up over the next period. Once you know this structure forms, isn’t trading this setup easier?

Patterns are just patterns—they don’t represent volume. Price is just price—it can’t represent volume. First there must be volume, and then price follows. Price without volume is just a con. Volume without price is accumulation. When there is both volume and price, then it’s time to take off 🛫

Bottoming to go long: W bottoms, triple bottoms, rounded U, deep V, island bottoms. Topting to go short: M tops, triple tops, inverted U-rounded tops, inverted V, island tops, plus mid-way consolidation (depending on the breakout direction): triangles, trading ranges, flags, and wedges.

All patterns must be combined with volume and price. If you only look at patterns and ignore volume and price, basically it’s useless. All these patterns are just references, not 100%.

Shake out a bundle, alright—let me put it simply and talk about how “shanzhai coins” (copycat coins) are played. After this, I won’t talk about this anymore—I’m just sharing. If it’s useful, take it; if it’s not, discard it.

From last year to this year, how many 100x coins are there, and what are their characteristics? The unified characteristic is “alpha.” There are no 100x opportunities in spot. In the past three years, including the bull market, Binance spot had not a single 100x coin. Only alpha appeared to produce 100x coins. When MYX became the first 100x coin, it meant this playstyle had already been proven. Next, other pack-leaders (big operators) copied and mimicked it. COAI and AIA soon followed closely. After that, more and more 100x coins emerged—everyone knows the rest.

Whether you call it insider information or knowing the operators, it’s all a playstyle that’s been around since after 2017. If you were an operator, would you tell everyone what you’re going to trade and how you’ll manage the position? When you “pump,” how much capital do you have to pay? And to pump, it takes real money. Operators are not charitable people, so use your brain.

Next, I’ll tell you the traits of these “yao coins.” As for whether they can actually emerge, nobody knows—only the main force (the big players) knows. Because the car is too heavy. The main force either carries out a brutal washout, or simply abandons the position. Only when the car is lighter would the main force spend less money to do bigger things—so there’s really no such thing as “insider info.”

Trait 1: Only alpha and contracts. If there’s spot involved, basically don’t consider it. In the past three years, not a single spot coin produced a 100x.

Trait 2: Near the new high, there’s a breakout-waiting stage—volume and price move together, with transaction volume surging dramatically. That alone is enough to conclude: after the new high, it becomes an infinite new high. You can refer to the US stock market—after a stock makes a historical high, does it then keep making new highs forever? Think of Micron/Micron, or SanDisk—after they hit new highs, do they not keep making new highs?

Now the narrative comes in—market sentiment comes in, and then the capital comes in.

As for the current “yao coins,” you can just pick any four coin posts and you can only put out four images—take a look and match them to yourself. It’s not that hard. You just need to pay attention: see who releases volume first, see who makes a new high first, see who keeps making new highs. That’s the result you’re looking for.

For the next “yao coins,” based on the current view, there are only two charts—Chart 1 and Chart 2. Only their volume is sufficient. As for which one it is, that depends on personal preference—of course, it’s also possible that neither of them is the right one. For Chart 3 and Chart 4, just pay attention. When they break out and make a new high with volume—that’s the moment to act.

How to define a “new high”: Don’t count price spikes/needles beyond historical highs. Only look for integer levels.

I admit I’m black, but you can’t say I have no hair on my legs. If one day I remove the hair on my legs for you, you can’t not take responsibility for me 😘

$US This time you can’t keep fooling around with hookups anymore, can we get a pump going? The main players still want to pull up the price; volume is gradually picking up. Hold steady at 0.02—I have to get above 0.03.

$ETH The fluctuations of Ether are still too small. I’m used to playing clones. I suddenly can’t adapt. Don’t be obsessed with clones.

If you’re fixated on clones, then in the end you’ll only get picked off. The liquidity of clone projects isn’t like Ether and the big pie. I’ll go face the wall and think for a bit after this.

$MIRA This thing’s trend and volume have really picked up. Other than the market cap being a bit small, there’s basically no big issue. Set your stop-loss and just go for it—if it hits your target, take the profit and move on.

$CRCL two days ago, 140 companies jointly issued OUSD. At the time, the stock price was 61—what did I say? You can just buy it directly, because when 140 companies jointly work on a certain project.

Who takes the lead, who makes the decisions, and how do they coordinate? If it were a top-tier company, I think that’s fine. But 140 companies? To me, it’s no different from the 18 warlords.

In the Three Kingdoms, the 18 warlords led by Yuan Shao—what was the end result? In the end, they were just a bunch of opportunists…

The bragging is loud. In the short term, it creates a negative sentiment for CRCL. But in the long run, with 140 plus companies that can’t deliver products—or the products are below expectations—that’s not a benefit for CRCL, is it?

On one compliant path, people walk it for ten years. Suddenly, the 18 warlords show up saying, “I’m going to take you out and replace you.” Just look at the Three Kingdoms…

Unlimited long-term potential—short term doesn’t affect your accumulation. In the future three to five years, will it still be 60?

$SPCX Small flying stick—first half of the year is all about unlocking; in the second half, it’s all unlocking as well. Above it, everything is trapped-share supply. It won’t drop much, but it also won’t rise much. So as long as it spikes upward, you can just sit in it.

In the early stage, 5% of the float is circulating chips—about 650 million shares. In the second half, about 4.577 billion shares will be unlocked, and by 2026 roughly 35% of the shares’ chips will be floating.

After June 12, 2027, there will still be about 49% of the shares unlocked, plus unlocking by institutions and others. By 2027, cumulative unlocking will be around 64% of the float.

The unlocking across 2026 + 2027 totals 100% of the float. Extending the unlock period by having Musk maintain the stock price and create positive catalysts is also not impossible.

When it listed, it had a 30% premium—rising to around 230, nearly doubling. People in the market who chase momentum—can they be sure of getting out of the position in the short term? That’s why I can’t possibly go long in the short term on this “burning fire stick.”

So for the small flying stick, long-term outlook is bearish. With the 135 issue price, unless it breaks the issue price, I will firmly not consider going long. Where it falls to—nobody knows. Mars migration right now is just a gimmick; neither you nor I can see it. Whether our children in the future will be able to see it is still uncertain.