蟹老板的进击之路
迎接比特币最疯狂的牛市，公众号（进击的蟹老板之路）
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$BTC seems to have a grudge against anything starting with 9, it doesn't even stand for a moment, it just draws a door
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Near 185.1 $aave, preparing to gradually bottom out, three reasons.
1. The SEC's 4-year investigation has concluded, enhancing Aave's credibility with institutions and compliance.
2. The impact on the entire DeFi governance paradigm case 'AAVE token alignment' proposal, although it sparked community controversy,
3. The announcement of the 2026 three strategic pillar vision is substantial, and the data is also very good,
Blue chip coins have very comprehensive plans for future development and pathways waiting for subsequent efforts.
1. The SEC's 4-year investigation has concluded, enhancing Aave's credibility with institutions and compliance.
2. The impact on the entire DeFi governance paradigm case 'AAVE token alignment' proposal, although it sparked community controversy,
3. The announcement of the 2026 three strategic pillar vision is substantial, and the data is also very good,
Blue chip coins have very comprehensive plans for future development and pathways waiting for subsequent efforts.
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Japan is very likely to raise interest rates this Friday.
Specific news will be announced on December 19th. The biggest question now is not whether this time will raise or not, but whether it will continue to raise, because the current interest rate is only 0.5%. Even if it is raised once, it will only increase to 0.75%, which is still quite low.
Previous analyses have suggested that the interest rate needs to return to a more normal level, approximately up to 1.25%. Therefore, many people speculate that if there is a raise this time, there may be two more raises afterwards, totaling three raises.
The last time Japan raised interest rates consecutively was from March 2024, lasting until January 2025, taking almost 10 months to finally raise the interest rate from a negative -0.1% to 0.5%.
Currently, the situation in Japan is that prices have been rising, and the inflation rate has exceeded 2% for three years. The public often complains that the central bank is raising interest rates too slowly, which cannot keep up with the pace of price increases, so the actual cost of borrowing is still very low.
Now, in the market, everyone is not only worried about this interest rate hike but also about whether there will be consecutive increases afterwards. Additionally, December coincides with Christmas and New Year holidays, resulting in fewer traders in the market and slow capital flow, making any small movement likely to cause significant fluctuations.
In previous years, December has always been a time to assess the situation at the end of the month; currently, it can only be said that the risks outweigh the rewards.
Specific news will be announced on December 19th. The biggest question now is not whether this time will raise or not, but whether it will continue to raise, because the current interest rate is only 0.5%. Even if it is raised once, it will only increase to 0.75%, which is still quite low.
Previous analyses have suggested that the interest rate needs to return to a more normal level, approximately up to 1.25%. Therefore, many people speculate that if there is a raise this time, there may be two more raises afterwards, totaling three raises.
The last time Japan raised interest rates consecutively was from March 2024, lasting until January 2025, taking almost 10 months to finally raise the interest rate from a negative -0.1% to 0.5%.
Currently, the situation in Japan is that prices have been rising, and the inflation rate has exceeded 2% for three years. The public often complains that the central bank is raising interest rates too slowly, which cannot keep up with the pace of price increases, so the actual cost of borrowing is still very low.
Now, in the market, everyone is not only worried about this interest rate hike but also about whether there will be consecutive increases afterwards. Additionally, December coincides with Christmas and New Year holidays, resulting in fewer traders in the market and slow capital flow, making any small movement likely to cause significant fluctuations.
In previous years, December has always been a time to assess the situation at the end of the month; currently, it can only be said that the risks outweigh the rewards.
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This bear market will be very brutal, and it is even possible that in the end, even CZ will have to deliver takeout
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Bitcoin was dragged down by the US stock market last night, hitting a low around 85000. The 90000 USD barrier, which had held for several days, has finally broken down effectively, currently hovering around 86000, with no support signals on the 4-hour level.
This week will be the most important week, with non-farm payrolls tonight, and the 19th is Japan's interest rate hike day. There will be intense fluctuations this week, and after this week, panic sentiment will continue to dissipate.
Currently, all that can be done is to reduce leverage to take risks, allowing oneself to survive.
This week will be the most important week, with non-farm payrolls tonight, and the 19th is Japan's interest rate hike day. There will be intense fluctuations this week, and after this week, panic sentiment will continue to dissipate.
Currently, all that can be done is to reduce leverage to take risks, allowing oneself to survive.
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Non-farm + CPI, Japan's interest rate hike super data week is coming, is the market a bit precarious?
Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, but strangely, the long-term U.S. Treasury yield not only did not decrease but actually increased. This indicates that the bond market does not really believe that inflation will drop as smoothly as the official forecast suggests, and the potential tax reduction policies next year may worsen the fiscal deficit issue.
This week is even more critical, with two major economic data releases scheduled for the same week: non-farm employment data on Tuesday and CPI inflation data on Thursday.
There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Officials occasionally come out to share their views, and it may only be the combination of stable inflation and poor employment data that could slightly unify their perspectives, allowing the expectations for interest rate cuts to be reignited next year.
This week is even more critical, with two major economic data releases scheduled for the same week: non-farm employment data on Tuesday and CPI inflation data on Thursday.
There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Officials occasionally come out to share their views, and it may only be the combination of stable inflation and poor employment data that could slightly unify their perspectives, allowing the expectations for interest rate cuts to be reignited next year.
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Bitcoin has once again fallen below the 21-day moving average of approximately 91,000. The trend looks relatively weak; although it bounced back again at 88,000, the strength of the rebound is not strong. Overall, it is still a volatile market. From a larger trend perspective, the 200-day moving average has been broken and has begun to shift from flat to downward, so the short-term outlook remains pessimistic.
Ethereum has retraced to the trend line but has not broken below it. If it can stabilize above 3,000, there is still a chance for a rebound. However, if it breaks below, it would be best not to hold onto any illusions.
Additionally, this week is also a typical week influenced by macro data, with news coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting all coming together, making it clear that this week will not pass quietly.
Ethereum has retraced to the trend line but has not broken below it. If it can stabilize above 3,000, there is still a chance for a rebound. However, if it breaks below, it would be best not to hold onto any illusions.
Additionally, this week is also a typical week influenced by macro data, with news coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting all coming together, making it clear that this week will not pass quietly.
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Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a liquidity exhaustion trend over the weekend, with the 4-hour level being a flat line, and then starting to decline yesterday, breaking below 90000 USD. However, the market did not panic, and after the market opened this morning, it pulled back up, but it still hasn't regained the 90000 USD level.
The 4-hour level is still maintaining a wide range of fluctuations, and the Bank of Japan will continue to suppress bullish trends until the interest rate hike is implemented.
The 4-hour level is still maintaining a wide range of fluctuations, and the Bank of Japan will continue to suppress bullish trends until the interest rate hike is implemented.
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The market for pancakes is moving as if there is no liquidity. In previous years, December was always bustling with activity. Has the dog dealer started celebrating the new year early this year $BTC
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Increased position on $doyr
Reason:
1: Yesterday, the main sister said that the official V number's perspective is not being monitored, which means that the official account of Binance is unlikely to release any perspective during this period. As for the future, it will depend on whether the perspective holds.
2: After the launch of $doyr alpha, it faced criticism, and this label has indirectly caught the attention of Binance.
3: $doyr is likely to follow the same trajectory as #恶俗企鹅, continuing after the alpha launch, but the name label of $DOYR also has bold expectations for launching contracts and even spot trading.
ca:0x925c8ab7a9a8a148e87cd7f1ec7ecc3625864444
Reason:
1: Yesterday, the main sister said that the official V number's perspective is not being monitored, which means that the official account of Binance is unlikely to release any perspective during this period. As for the future, it will depend on whether the perspective holds.
2: After the launch of $doyr alpha, it faced criticism, and this label has indirectly caught the attention of Binance.
3: $doyr is likely to follow the same trajectory as #恶俗企鹅, continuing after the alpha launch, but the name label of $DOYR also has bold expectations for launching contracts and even spot trading.
ca:0x925c8ab7a9a8a148e87cd7f1ec7ecc3625864444
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The Ethereum staking ETF has been called for a year, and there has been no movement at all.
However, it must be admitted that the only story left to tell in the crypto circle is the staking ETF.
However, it must be admitted that the only story left to tell in the crypto circle is the staking ETF.
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What can we expect from the market next?
It's money, that's right, the most intuitive increase this year is actually driven by the inflow of capital from consortiums and ETFs. While there is occasionally some inflow into ETFs, I believe the main force is still the consortiums, as they are new to the market this year and can be said to have not experienced a bear market. Think back to your early days in the market; how did you operate when it suddenly turned bearish?
The consortiums have obviously not given up on the crypto market, so we need to pay attention to when these institutions start to buy back heavily, as that would clearly indicate a reversal by the main force.
Perhaps when the market has adjusted enough, the consortiums will re-enter, or it might be stimulated by some news.
In short, this is a key signal to pay attention to for those looking to buy the dip.
It's money, that's right, the most intuitive increase this year is actually driven by the inflow of capital from consortiums and ETFs. While there is occasionally some inflow into ETFs, I believe the main force is still the consortiums, as they are new to the market this year and can be said to have not experienced a bear market. Think back to your early days in the market; how did you operate when it suddenly turned bearish?
The consortiums have obviously not given up on the crypto market, so we need to pay attention to when these institutions start to buy back heavily, as that would clearly indicate a reversal by the main force.
Perhaps when the market has adjusted enough, the consortiums will re-enter, or it might be stimulated by some news.
In short, this is a key signal to pay attention to for those looking to buy the dip.
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Why did the market surge and then drop after the rate cut? Next, we need to watch these two important matters!
At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve officially cut rates by 25 basis points, and the market surged by about 10%. This was mainly due to expectations of the rate cut, but the dot plot shows that the expectation for a rate cut in 2026 is only once, and if there is to be an increase, it will depend on various data to decide whether to increase the frequency of rate cuts.
After the dot plot was released, the market fell from 94,000 to around 90,000, and the current price has already dropped below 90,000.
Two important things were mentioned at the meeting:
There will not be an interest rate hike in the near term. According to the forecast chart, there will be a rate cut once in 2026 and another in 2027.
Some people think that such a small cut is useless, but the usefulness is not just measured by how much it is cut; many other factors must also be considered.
After the dot plot was released, the market fell from 94,000 to around 90,000, and the current price has already dropped below 90,000.
Two important things were mentioned at the meeting:
There will not be an interest rate hike in the near term. According to the forecast chart, there will be a rate cut once in 2026 and another in 2027.
Some people think that such a small cut is useless, but the usefulness is not just measured by how much it is cut; many other factors must also be considered.
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The interest rate cut of 25 basis points in the early morning is in line with expectations, while the dot plot shows that there is only one 25 basis point cut in 2026. To increase the number of rate cuts in the future, we can only wait for the subsequent macro data to be released before deciding to increase.
Additionally, on the 19th of this month, Japan will most likely raise interest rates. During the institutional settlement phase around Christmas this year, it will be very difficult to navigate.
Additionally, on the 19th of this month, Japan will most likely raise interest rates. During the institutional settlement phase around Christmas this year, it will be very difficult to navigate.
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Are we still sleeping tonight? The interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December is a done deal, the key point is the dot plot and the expectations for next year!
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The new year 2026 is approaching. Just a reminder for everyone
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Bitcoin suddenly surged last night during U.S. stock market hours, reaching a peak of $94,640, before being knocked down to around $92,000. The continuous premium effect from CB reappears, indicating that institutions are crazily buying on dips.
Recently, Cathie Wood, CZ, and others have come out to announce the end of the 4-year cycle. Currently, mainstream institutional confidence in the market has greatly increased, but retail investor confidence remains very weak. To restore retail confidence, there must be a surge that brings Bitcoin back to $10,000; at that time, retail investors will go crazy again.
As mentioned before, the 4-hour level for Bitcoin indicates a confirmed rebound trend. The upper resistance is in the range of $96,000 to $98,000. If this range is effectively broken and held, a new round of increases will come, otherwise, it will continue to oscillate and adjust.
Recently, Cathie Wood, CZ, and others have come out to announce the end of the 4-year cycle. Currently, mainstream institutional confidence in the market has greatly increased, but retail investor confidence remains very weak. To restore retail confidence, there must be a surge that brings Bitcoin back to $10,000; at that time, retail investors will go crazy again.
As mentioned before, the 4-hour level for Bitcoin indicates a confirmed rebound trend. The upper resistance is in the range of $96,000 to $98,000. If this range is effectively broken and held, a new round of increases will come, otherwise, it will continue to oscillate and adjust.
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