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Tonight's non-farm payroll data is coming in strong, and gold needs to strengthen its risk defense line, strictly adhering to risk control rules. Before the data is released: the trend is mainly oscillating with a slight bullish bias.

1. Expectation level: This time the core indicators of non-farm payrolls present an expected combination of "employment weakness + wage stickiness"—the expected non-farm employment population for November is only 50,000 (on the low side), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4% (at a relatively high level), while the year-on-year/month-on-month average hourly wage is expected to be 3.6%/0.3% (wages still have stickiness). This combination will lead the market to bet on the Federal Reserve's easing expectations in advance, providing support for gold.
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2. Technical linkage: If gold has not previously broken through key support (such as the 4260 you mentioned), the market will maintain a slightly bullish mindset based on the support level, testing resistance levels of 4300, 4320, etc., with a high probability of oscillating with a slight bullish trend before the data is released.

II. After the data is released: two-way fluctuations, looking at the deviation between actual values and expectations.

1. If the data is below expectations (bullish for gold)
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- Non-farm employment population < 50,000, unemployment rate > 4.4%: indicates that the U.S. job market is weakening, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will increase, causing gold to quickly break through 4300, 4320, and even further test higher resistance.
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- Wage data below expectations (year-on-year < 3.6%/month-on-month < 0.3%): inflationary pressures ease, which will also strengthen easing expectations and boost gold prices.
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2. If the data exceeds expectations (bearish for gold)
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- Non-farm employment population > 50,000, unemployment rate < 4.4%: labor market resilience exceeds expectations, cooling expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and gold will break below the 4260 support, testing lower support levels of 4240, 4220, etc.
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- Wage data higher than expectations: concerns about inflation stickiness will worsen, further suppressing gold trends.
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3. If the data meets expectations: gold will likely maintain its original oscillation range (4260-4320), with narrower fluctuations, needing to wait for subsequent signals from other fundamentals. #黄金

Yesterday, gold experienced a volatile rollercoaster, with a second attempt to challenge Friday's high facing resistance and retreating, stabilizing after dipping to 4285, and the daily line closing with a doji. In terms of gold's own performance, today's operations can focus on shorting around rebounds or high-selling and low-buying, leaning more towards a bullish strategy for the day, while being cautious of continued market fluctuations.

4313 is the key resistance and the dividing line between bulls and bears for the day: if this level holds, gold prices may retreat to test yesterday's low, with strong support seen at 4275-4250; once stabilized above 4313 or 4317, the upside potential will open up, targeting directly at 4328-4344, and even reaching the area of yesterday's high. If it can stabilize above the critical level of 4350 in the future, gold prices will launch an assault towards the previous high of 4380 #黄金

Golden Afternoon Thoughts

In the early morning, the Federal Reserve finalized its last rate cut of 2025, with a 25 basis point drop as expected! At the same time, it officially announced monthly bond purchases of $40 billion, which is merely a measure to alleviate short-term financing pressure. The Federal Reserve uses this tactic to reassure the market, emphasizing that the economy is resilient, not a massive stimulus, so don't think too much about it. Currently, the long-term rate cut cycle remains unchanged, but concerns over trade conflicts and employment inflation make the Federal Reserve's stance cautious. After the rate cut, gold did not stir up waves, but continued its back-and-forth fluctuating trend.

From the hourly cycle analysis, although gold broke through 4220 and reached $4250, the previous high resistance level was not effectively breached; during the pullback, it is necessary to rely on the previous low to build key support. The $4220 level is not a turning point between highs and lows, and under the fluctuating pattern, it is essential to anchor the bottom support layout.

Today, after gold surged to $4250, it quickly fell back, confirming strong selling pressure above. In the afternoon, if the market falls and first touches $4190-$4195, one can consider going long, and if it rebounds to $4230-$4235, one can consider going short #黄金 #美联储降息 #黄金下跌 .

Yesterday, gold showed a typical "first rise then fall" volatility trend. After opening at 4197.4 in the morning, it quickly surged, reaching a daily high of 4219.1. However, the bulls lacked follow-up momentum, and the market subsequently retreated, dropping to a low of 4175.9. This pattern highlights that the current market's long and short positions are in a stalemate, making it difficult to identify a clear trend in the short term, with a high probability of continuing the volatility pattern.

Short-term long positions: can be arranged in the 4180-4190 range, with targets looking at 4220-4230.
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Short-term short positions: can enter when the market rebounds to the 4230-4237 range, with targets looking down at 4200-4190#比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 #黄金下跌

Although the gold early session opened high and then fell, the volatility was moderate, and the 4200 level remains the core area of fluctuation. The weekend review has already accurately indicated: as long as the 4170 support holds, the bullish pattern will be stable! Currently, the short-term support is anchored at 4190, and positions should be built directly in the 4190-4195 range in the early session. Aggressive partners can enter near 4200, targeting the profit range of 4230! #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 #黄金下跌

12.6 Friday's gold ended perfectly, once showing a strong bullish stance during trading, peaking at 4259 before a sudden drop, ultimately closing at 4196, once again breaking below the 4200 mark. Previously, the hourly chart had broken through the triangular consolidation and the day's high, while the drop in the early hours of Saturday made next week's layout clearer.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment data saw a surprising decrease of 32,000 (expected increase of 10,000), which should have been a great benefit for gold, but it ended up peaking and then retreating; on Thursday, the initial claims for unemployment benefits did not increase but instead decreased, creating a contradiction in employment data that led to a rebound; on Friday, low inflation confirmed the expectation of interest rate cuts, yet gold directly surged and then plummeted below 4200! For three consecutive days, U.S. data has deviated from market predictions, so why is the gold market not following the 'script' at all?
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From the market environment perspective, before the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting on Friday, global financial markets were in a wait-and-see mode, with the dollar slightly down, gold rising moderately, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slightly up, overall trading was light, reflecting investor caution. The core contradiction in the current market has shifted from verifying economic data to pricing in advance the policy path divergence of global central banks (especially the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan)—the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates and expectations that the Bank of Japan may end negative rates have become core variables affecting capital flow and asset pricing. The policy silence period is precisely the brewing stage of a new trend, and the fluctuation in gold essentially represents a game before the direction of bulls and bears becomes clear.

Currently, the gold market's washout is not over; the 4-hour level adjustment is still insufficient, and even favorable data makes it difficult to maintain a sustained strong one-sided trend; only when the Federal Reserve begins to normalize interest rate cuts and clearly tolerates high inflation in 2026 will gold prices regain the large one-sided trend seen from August to October. Next week's market is likely to oscillate, with the weekly second rebound being a bait for bulls; we need to wait for the market's bullish sentiment to cool down before the real bullish trend can start. Grasping the rhythm is key to profitability.

If your recent operations have not been satisfactory, Lingxin can help you avoid detours in gold investment. Feel free to communicate at any time! #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 #黄金下跌

Wishing everyone a happy weekend! This week, following Lingxin's footsteps, we have perfectly harvested! Looking back at this week's market, it fluctuated widely around the 4200 mark, with no clear winner between long and short positions. The short-term has not stabilized above 4200, and the probability of a pullback next week is high, so risks must be anticipated in advance!

After a previous surge, gold has now entered a high-level consolidation phase. The area above 4200 is a key technical zone. On December 1, there was a spike followed by a pullback, indicating divergence and profit-taking pressure at high levels. The 4200-4250 range has also shown a double top prototype; if it can't break through, it will retest the 4150-4180 support level. However, the monthly and weekly charts still have upward momentum, and the long and short positions will continue to tug at each other.

Next week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision + Powell's press conference will be key points. Focus on two major aspects: First, the number of dissenting votes from committee members; 5 people have already questioned the easing, and the number of dissenting votes directly reflects policy divergence. Second, Powell's stance on interest rate cuts must be clarified; it should be understood whether this rate cut is to support the market or to initiate a new round of easing, as this will directly determine the overall direction of gold! #黄金 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC代币化股票交易计划

Gold morning entry at 4202, take profit at 4227, 25 points, earned 12000 dollars #黄金 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #外汇黄金

Recently, the gold price has seen frequent fluctuations between bulls and bears, but the 4200 level has never been lost! The trend is highly consistent with yesterday, rising in the morning and then retreating before noon. Currently, support is showing at 4193, with clear short-term bullish signals. Maintain a low long strategy, first targeting the 4216 profit-taking level! #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金下跌 #黄金

Yesterday, non-farm data caused fluctuations, and after a surge, gold retreated, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the 4180-4250 range without a significant breakthrough. However, gold has shown a clear "bottoming rebound" characteristic, with the 4200 level proving to be a solid support after multiple tests. The short-term bottoming rebound logic aligns perfectly with previous predictions.

Currently, the bullish trend structure is complete, and a pullback layout remains the optimal solution. It is recommended to firmly adopt a bullish mindset and execute trades anchored at key points.

It is suggested to open long positions directly when gold pulls back to the 4195-4205 range, with a stop loss at 4180 and a target aiming at 4265-4280! #黄金 #外汇黄金

Key Attention! Tonight's ADP non-farm payroll data is crucial. The big non-farm data will only be available after the interest rate meeting, and the only employment data the Federal Reserve can look at right now is the ADP.

The November ADP layoff data was already worse than expected, and as long as there is no extreme reversal tonight, the soft employment tone will not change; if the data is even weaker, expectations for a rate cut in December will have to rise again, and the cryptocurrency market may welcome a key catalyst. #币安区块链周 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #ETH走势分析 $ETH $ZEC $SUI

Wednesday's gold opened strong! After probing the bottom overnight, gold held the key level of 4200, surged to 4221 in the morning and then pulled back, currently around 4217!

After successfully breaking above 4220 to 4221, gold faced pressure and pulled back. The high target has been reached, and a continuation strategy around 4213 is suggested, with a defense at 4207, still aiming for the target at 4226! A breakout looks towards 4230#黄金 #黄金下跌

Buy low at 4208, reach the highest point at 4218, take down 9300🔪#黄金 #黄金下跌

The bullish trend for gold remains unchanged!

Yesterday, gold surged to 4264.6 before experiencing a nighttime fluctuation and drop. Today, the core focus is on the 4200-4208 support range! The foundation of the bullish trend remains intact, and operations continue to focus on buying on dips!

Strategy: Open long positions decisively in the 4200-4209 range, with a stop loss at 4188. First target is the key level at 4265; if broken, look for higher potential! #黄金 #黄金下跌 #原油 #外汇黄金

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Fourth consecutive win! Da Bing had already set up a short position in the early morning, shorting at 91400, and held it until exiting at 87300, a 4000-point space! Harvested 20,000 oil! The consecutive wins just keep coming and can't be stopped! $BTC $SUI $SOL #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #ETH巨鲸增持