约货和现交流会

Cryptocurrency Course Representative

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, so let's talk about this matter again.

First of all, we need to understand that Japan's interest rate hikes mainly affect BTC prices through the mechanism of 'yen carry trade unwinding'. In simpler terms, investors borrow low-interest yen to buy BTC and other high-risk assets. However, an interest rate hike will lead to increased borrowing costs and yen appreciation, forcing investors to sell assets and repay yen, thus triggering a sell-off in the risk market.

This time, given that there is more than a 97% probability that the market has already priced in this interest rate hike, it is normal that there is no volatility now. It is even normal to see a rebound due to 'bad news being fully priced in', so don't be surprised.

In the past couple of days, I have also analyzed the charts. After the interest rate hikes in March and July 2024 and January 2025, Bitcoin fell by 20%-30% within 4-6 weeks, but during this period, other news also influenced the prices. As for whether this time will be the same, it mainly depends on the subsequent steps of the Bank of Japan and the policy game with other major central banks led by the Federal Reserve. The current environment is very different.

Overall, if the Bank of Japan starts a continuous interest rate hike cycle in 2026, then in the long term, sustained interest rate hikes will continually raise global yen borrowing costs, long-term suppressing market risk appetite, which will naturally pose a continuous negative impact on assets like BTC.

Additionally, we are likely in the middle to later stages of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, so... sigh, next year will be very tough. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

Just finished watching the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan after the interest rate hike in Japan.

Okay, let me give you a colloquial, key point version of 1-2-3-4 summary:

1. This interest rate hike is not a 'shift to tightening,' but a small step towards normalization.

The Governor repeatedly emphasized that Japan has not entered an aggressive rate hike cycle; this is more about moving slightly from 'extremely loose' to a normal state, so do not interpret it as a comprehensive withdrawal.

2. Whether to continue raising interest rates depends on data, not a preset path.

He clearly stated that the Bank of Japan does not have a fixed path for interest rate hikes and will not follow a set rhythm like the Federal Reserve; everything depends on whether inflation, wages, and economic data hold up.

3. Whether wages and inflation can form a positive cycle is a core observation point.

What is currently most concerning is not short-term prices, but whether companies can continue to raise wages and whether inflation can stabilize near the target. If wages do not keep up, they will not rashly tighten further.

4. Volatility in the financial markets will be closely monitored, as they do not wish to cause shocks.

The Governor specifically mentioned that they will closely watch Japanese bonds, exchange rates, and overall market reactions and do not want interest rate hikes to trigger severe volatility; the Bank of Japan will still remain 'very cautious.'

This interest rate hike is more like 'testing the waters,' not declaring war, with a slow pace, soft attitude, and leaving room for maneuver $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

December 19 DOGE Trading Reference

I. Entry Strategy

Focus on the range of 0.12900-0.13100, it is recommended to build positions in the middle or lower part of the range, and chasing high prices is strictly prohibited; adopt a small position trial and gradually increase the position mode to reduce entry risk.

II. Target Setting

1. First target: around 0.12650, reduce position by 50% to lock in profits after reaching.

2. Second target: around 0.12400 (this time's final target), if the market does not effectively break through, decisively take profits.

III. Risk Control Requirements

Set stop-loss in advance according to your own risk tolerance; immediately stop-loss if the price breaks the support level, do not hold positions or fight stubbornly, firmly maintain the principal safety bottom line $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

When he entered the cryptocurrency world, there was only a line of numbers in his account and a pile of unfulfilled aspirations.

Over 30,000 U was the money he had saved from working for several years. At first, he only heard friends say, "The opportunity has come," and then he saw various stories of doubling, so he entered the market with a try-it-out mentality. He didn’t know how to look at cycles, didn’t understand positions, and didn’t even know what risk control meant. When the price went up, he chased it; when it went down, he held on; and when he lost money, he thought about using a larger position to recover.

As a result, the market quickly gave him a sobering slap in the face.

His account changed from green to deep green, and then to a point where he almost didn’t dare to open it.

Over 30,000 U, he lost down to just a little leftover.

During that time, he was truly panicked.

It wasn’t how terrifying the market was, but rather realizing he understood nothing.

He didn’t know what to do next, nor did he know if he could continue.

It was also at this time that he met Brother Long through a friend.

There were no miraculous operations, nor any promises of "you'll recover your losses."

Brother Long's first words were surprisingly calm:

"Your current issue isn’t losing money, it’s a lack of understanding. Rushing to operate will only lead to faster losses."

So the first thing he did wasn’t to trade, but to stop.

He reanalyzed his losses: Why did he enter? Why did he hold on? Why did he keep losing?

He began to understand that the market was never the enemy; the real problem lay within himself.

Later, he slowly resumed trading.

No heavy positions, no betting on direction, no frequent trades.

Before every trade, he would think: What if I’m wrong, rather than what if I make money.

The market isn’t exaggerated, nor are there miracles.

It’s just a series of small but certain opportunities taken seriously.

In just a short time, his account slowly recovered, and he had made back over 10,000 U.

He said that at that moment he wasn’t very excited.

More so, he breathed a sigh of relief.

Not because he made money, but because he finally knew what he was doing.

He is now very clear:

This isn’t a turnaround, nor is it the end.

It’s just moving from "chaos" to "methodical."

The cryptocurrency world never lacks opportunities.

What’s lacking is whether you have the ability to survive before the opportunity arrives.

If you are also feeling lost,

Don’t rush to recover your losses,

Clarify your understanding,

It might be much more important than your next trade $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

Recently, various countries' interest rate policies
United States——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
United Kingdom——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Sweden——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Egypt——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Canada——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
United Arab Emirates——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Israel——cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Japan——raise interest rates by 25 basis points

The world is cutting interest rates, but Japan is taking an unconventional path, going against the world and continuing to raise interest rates $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

Investment is actually the same.
Don't make it so complicated.
What works and what doesn't, everyone knows.
The cryptocurrency market is not doing well right now, US AI stocks have recently come under pressure, and precious metals are performing well.
Isn't it enough that you know these things?
You insist on going through a whole set of value investing principles, whether Japan raises interest rates or not, whether the US lowers interest rates or not. ​$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

On Friday, the large pancake's two-pancake strategy
After rebounding from the previous low point of the large pancake's correction, it has continuously formed a rising structure, with the Bollinger Bands showing a narrowing and then gradually opening trend. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross near the zero axis, with the red bars continuously increasing in volume, coupled with the KDJ three lines diverging upwards and not entering the overbought zone, indicating that bullish momentum is in a healthy accumulation phase. The volume level shows a mild expansion characteristic, confirming the validity of the current upward trend. If it can stabilize around the middle track near 87000, it will open up the space for a surge towards the 88000-89000 range; conversely, if it loses the middle track and falls below the support zone of 84500-84000, it may trigger a phase correction to around 82000.
The 1-hour candlestick level is steadily rising with small bullish candles, forming a clear upward channel. The short-term moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, the MACD golden cross continues to diverge, and the RSI indicator has risen from a low position to above 50, entering a strong zone. The three major indicators form a bullish resonance signal, solidifying the short-term upward structure, with no obvious correction pressure.

Daytime operations
The large pancake corrects to the 86000-86500 range, targeting 88000 and looking towards 89500.
The two-pancake corrects to the 2850-2900 range, targeting 2950, looking towards 3020$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

Bitcoin is really about to crash——According to a report by K33 Research Company, the number of bitcoins that have not been transferred for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million since the beginning of 2023, with a total value of approximately 140 billion dollars. In just the year 2025 alone, nearly 300 billion dollars worth of bitcoins that had been dormant for over a year will re-enter the market. Data released by blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant shows that in the past 30 days, the scale of selling by long-term bitcoin holders has reached one of the highest peaks in over five years. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

Narrow fluctuations → Rapid rise → Engulfing candle, this is a very typical false breakout path. The second pancake has already experienced this structure twice in a 1-hour timeframe. If you get swept in a short position twice in a row, don’t rush to doubt yourself. A false breakout is part of the market; getting swept just means you made a mistake this time, not that your strategy is flawed. Manage your emotions well, and just focus on placing the next order correctly. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

The future of blockchain is definitely bright.

It's a simple truth that people are always greedy and will never be satisfied with the present; they will constantly explore various possibilities. If you overlook it and don't dig, there will naturally be others who will.

Currently, the world of blockchain is a blue ocean, and in the future, there will definitely be many varieties that are tenfold, or even a hundredfold. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

The posture shows a four-hour line dominated by the Kline head, the EMA trend indicator shows a downward alternating diffusion trend, the MACD shows a bottom divergence and a decrease in volume, and the DIF and DEA continue to diffuse downwards. Although the Kline head momentum has not significantly expanded, the Kline head trend has not yet reversed.

Posture: Kline near 2850. Target 2780$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

Thursday Night Big Pancake and Second Pancake Strategy

The big pancake daily line is still in the downward channel since the high in October, suppressed by multiple moving averages. The MACD death cross continues to diverge downwards. Yesterday, it surged to 90336 before a "high platform dive," closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle. The pressure at the 90000 level is prominent.

The strong support zone below 85000-85500 is both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near yesterday's low of 85278 and supported by on-chain buying. The hourly RSI quickly rebounded from the oversold area, indicating a demand for technical recovery;
The short-term resistance above focuses on the 88000-89000 range, which is both a previous consolidation middle resistance and is suppressed by the 4-hour moving average death cross, making it difficult for a volume-less rebound to break through.

Evening Operation Strategy
The big pancake retraces to the 85500-86000 range, targeting 87500, looking up to 89000.

The second pancake retraces to the 2780-2800 range, targeting 2900, looking up to 2980$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Thursday large pie Ethereum evening analysis:

Last night's market accurately fulfilled the forecast, with the strategy of shorting at highs before the 19th being effectively executed, and the entry points provided in advance directly yielded a profit of four to five thousand points on the segment!

Today's strategy remains unchanged, continuing to rely on resistance levels to short at highs, noting that the rebound strength is likely to be weaker than yesterday.

The short-term key resistance level for the large pie is locked at 87000; if this level is not broken, the downward trend will continue, with the first target looking at the 85000-84000 range; if the market dips down to 81000, one can decisively enter long positions, targeting straight towards 76000; if there is an unexpected breakthrough of the 87000 resistance, then monitor the resistance in the 88000-89000 range.

Ethereum is also looking bearish, with a short-term resistance level at 2890; if this level is under pressure, the downward trend will not change, with the target looking towards the 2700-2600 range; if it dips near 2600, one can choose to enter long positions; if the rebound breaks through the 2890 resistance level, further attention should be paid to the 2980-3000 range resistance.

Operation tips: Strictly control positions, set stop losses, and follow the trend! $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

I used to not understand what happiness was, only knowing that having money equated to happiness and that it was hard to be happy without it (which is both right and wrong). So I crazily wanted to make a lot of money. Seeing others with luxury cars, spacious homes, and high-end goods, their balances longer than my birthdate, I was determined to be someone important. If others had it, I had to have it too, and I could have it. But often, things are very linear, especially in the crypto world, where having abalone makes you want lobster.

In these years of trading cryptocurrency, and this being the third time I've chosen a laid-back solitary life, looking at the clams that have been soaked and salted in preparation for purging sand, the green broccoli, the red chili, the green chili, and the straight green onions, while gazing at the bright sunlight reflecting back with dazzling rays, I understood this is happiness, this is freedom.

To do specific things, to personally touch the stones by the roadside, the large trees in the green belts, to bask in the sun, take a walk, read books, calm the heart, patiently hone myself, being a stone that can build walls and stack bricks is better than being a gem that shines brilliantly but can only lie on a crown!

Do not let grand narratives, price fluctuations, empowerment, DeFi, asset tokenization, and other things that you can say are completely unrelated to you trouble you. $BTC $BNB $ETH #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

Is liquidity drying up? The market has become a "frightened bird," with both bulls and bears hesitant to take action. Can Ethereum hold its ground for the last stand in 2025? Analysis on two levels!

During this period of confusion, key technical levels are more important than news. The core support zone is: 2710-2650. This level is not drawn arbitrarily; it is the starting platform from multiple previous rebounds after declines, and can be understood as the "strategic buffer zone" for bulls on the daily level. If this level is broken with significant volume, it means the psychological defense line of bulls is collapsing, and the space for decline will open up. If the price, due to market panic, revisits the 2710-2650 area and there are clear signs of slowing down or stopping the decline on the daily chart (such as a long lower shadow), then this is a daily level rebound opportunity worth betting on. The logic is: key area + panic emotion easily forms short-term consensus.

From the 4-hour level, after the price drops to the above area, we need to see signs of "not being able to fall further" on the 4-hour chart. For example, continuous bottom divergences, completion of TD sequence counting, or a decisive bullish engulfing candle. The area of 2780-2820 is the lower edge of the previous platform on the 4-hour level and also the initial pressure zone for this downtrend. A rebound to this level will face the first wave of selling pressure from those looking to exit, making it a key test point.

Intraday operation suggestions:
Long near 2710-2650 with a target of 2780-2820
Short near 2895-2925 with a target of 2780-2750
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

ETH is currently operating in a small range of 2800–2850, highly similar to the previous four oscillation structures.

The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the price is moving between the lower and middle bands, showing clear pressure.

The MACD is below the zero axis, with DIF and DEA in negative territory, but there are signs of a 'golden cross under water'—however, a weak rebound may just be a trap for buyers.
RSI values are all below 40, on the edge of being oversold but not yet at the bottom, leaving room for further decline.

2870-2900 range, watch 2750-2700$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向

The market is always right; the mistake lies in the self-righteous predictions.
When correct, respect the market; when wrong, reflect on oneself. The market is the teacher, and the Q bag is the answer sheet.
Beware of greed when the tide rises, and restrain luck when the tide recedes.
Real opportunities often hide in places that no one pays attention to, rather than when there is a cacophony of voices. Defense is not failure; hard resistance is the abyss. Discipline is the helmet of trading, and emotion is the fuse of losses. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

The Air Force gets addicted to going long; looking at charts every day makes one want it to drop.

The bulls feel the same way; a slight rise makes them start fantasizing about takeoff.

In the end, it's not the direction that loses, but the emotions.

Wanting too much to prove oneself right makes one more susceptible to being educated by the market.

Remember this:

The market is never wrong; it’s the people at the top who are wrong.

I will always be here to guide the direction. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储重启降息步伐