BTC ola

Crypto Alpha:
What Is Impacting ETH's Price?
Exchange supply dropped to 2016 lows (0.137 ratio), removing ETH from immediate selling pressure as investors move coins to wallets.
Bitmain bought $229M in ETH over two days, signaling institutional confidence ahead of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025.
Negative funding rates cleared short risk, lowering the chance of cascading liquidations while ETH rebounds 3.06% to $2,922.97.
Why Does It Matter: When exchange supply drops sharply, past patterns show reduced selling pressure often leads to price increases as available coins shrink. Large institutional buys like Bitmain's $229M purchase historically boost confidence and can trigger follow-through buying from other players. In 2020, similar supply drops preceded ETH's 400% rally.

Fundraises & Airdrops 💰
Lightning Network powered wallet, Speed Wallet, raises $8M in a strategic funding round led by Tether alongside Ego Death Capital.
Crypto payment network, RedotPay, raises $107M in a Series B funding round led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Circle Ventures and Blockchain Capital, among others.
Ethereum blockspace markets, ETHGas, raises $12M in a Seed round led by Polychain Capital, with other investors including Amber Group, BlueYard Capital, Tokka Labs, Stake Capital, and more.
Solana-native prediction markett, Worm.wtf, raises $4.5M in a pre-seed round, with investors including 6th Man Ventures, Solana Ventures, Alliance, Borderless, and more.
Fogo cancels their token presale amidst backlash regarding their token valuation, announcing their airdrop, which will occur with the token launch on January 13th.
Berachain liquidity protocol, Infrared Finance, airdrops 2% of the total token supply to eligible users, with claims closing on 1st January 2026.
HyperLend releases their Terms and Conditions for their upcoming airdrop. Users must sign the terms by January 18th to receive their airdrop.

Major Project Updates 🗓️
The Hyperliquid Foundation proposes a validator vote to officially recognize the HYPE tokens held in the Assistance Fund address as burned, taking them out of the circulating supply.
MetaMask extends support to include Bitcoin, enabling transfers, swaps and on-ramping directly to the Bitcoin Network.
Phantom begins the rollout of their Phantom Cash debit cards, kicking off with US customers.
Interop Labs, the initial developers of Axelar Network, have been acquired by stablecoin issuer, Circle. The AXL token and foundation remain independent.
Stripe L1, Tempo, introduces Tempo Transactions, enabling a range of features including paying network fees in any stablecoin, batching and concurrent transactions, among others.
Although the recent Hyperliquid proposal is seen as largely bullish from HYPE bulls, skeptics question the rationale behind the decision considering better uses for the funds, such as a secondary insurance fund.

Narrative of the Week 📰
The DTCC receives approval from the SEC regarding tokenized assets, opening the path for an increasingly tokenized world, bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi.

The DTCC receives the no-action letter from the SEC, greenlighting the clearing and settlement of tokenized assets, including stocks, bonds, treasuries, and more.
JP Morgan launches their first tokenized money market fund, My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY) on Ethereum.
Securitize introduces Stocks, natively-tokenized stocks on-chain, as opposed to the majority of implementations which trade the actual stocks off-chain, enabling proper ownership of the actual underlying.
Tokenization continues to be a key area of interest for traditional financial institutions in the crypto space, with developments continuing to flourish despite widespread pessimism in the market.

Market Overview 📈
Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week down 4.86%, while Ethereum (ETH) underperformed, falling 8.98% in the same period. Total crypto market cap fell 6.69% to close the week at $2.96T, down from $3.14T in the week prior.

Similar to the weeks since the 10/10 crash, liquidations continued to stay muted, with most days seeing less than $300M in liquidations. Likewise, funding rates maintained under sub-10% levels, reflecting a generally bearish stance on the market.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy acquires 10,645 BTC for a total of $980.3M, bringing their total holdings to 671,268 BTC.
Visa launches their Stablecoin Advisory Practice, seeking to assist businesses and financial institutions with stablecoin integrations and implementations.
Coinbase announces plans to rollout stock trading on their platform, starting with US customers, alongside prediction markets, powered by Kalshi.
Crypto markets broke lower over the week, amidst a weakening equities market. While a positive CPI result helped to reverse some of the damage in equities later into the week, crypto failed to catch a strong bid, with many weak altcoins continuing to fall lower. The S&P 500 closed 1.63% lower over the week, while the Nasdaq trailed behind at 2.01% down.

what's your stratégie?

Crypto Alpha:
Are Altcoins Outperforming Bitcoin?
Bitcoin dominance climbed to 58.82% (+0.35 pts in 24h) while the CMC Altcoin Season Index sits at 18/100, confirming Bitcoin Season as capital flows away from alts.
Major Layer 1s trail Bitcoin, ETH dropped 11.13% and SOL fell 5.33% over 7 days, both underperforming BTC's 5.33% decline despite strong network activity.
Stablecoin inflows flatlined at -0.5% in 24h, cutting off the liquidity altcoins need to gain momentum against Bitcoin's institutional-backed strength.
Why Does It Matter: When Bitcoin dominance rises, altcoins usually struggle because traders move money to Bitcoin for safety. Stablecoins are the fuel that powers altcoin rallies, when that fuel dries up, alts can't compete with Bitcoin's momentum. Historically, altcoin seasons begin when Bitcoin dominance drops below 40% and fresh stablecoin capital floods exchanges.

how is it going?

Dormant Silk Road Wallets Just Moved Millions

Hundreds of Silk Road-linked wallets moved $3.14 million in Bitcoin after sitting dormant for over a decade. All 176 transfers went to one unknown address on Tuesday.

Ross Ulbricht got a full pardon from Trump in January. The original Silk Road addresses still hold about $38.4 million in BTC.

How much Bitcoin could still be sitting in those undiscovered wallets?

Vitalik Says Finality Loss Isn't a Problem

Ethereum's finality mechanism had a close call when a client bug nearly disrupted block confirmations. Vitalik's response? There's "nothing wrong with losing finalization once in a while."

Some bridges and layer-2s rely on finality though.

What actually happens to your funds stuck in a bridge during finality loss?

Bitcoin's having a rough December, down nearly 14% this month and trading at $90,311.55 after another 2.07% dip.

The Fed cut rates like everyone expected, but the market's reaction? A collective shrug followed by a selloff.

Altcoin Season Index crashed to 19, basically screaming "Bitcoin Season" as investors flee to the OG crypto while everything else bleeds out.

And if that wasn't enough, we've got nine major US banks quietly restricting crypto services over the past few years. Nothing says "institutional adoption" quite like your bank showing you the door, right?

So what else is shaping the market right now?

Crypto Alpha:
What Is the Market Sentiment?
Fear persists but shows marginal improvement, CMC Fear & Greed Index climbed from 27 to 29 after 30+ days below neutral, still 31 points shy of the sentiment breakeven line.
Institutional flows defy retail retreat, ETF products absorbed $327.9M, while spot trading volume dropped 3.54%, as Bitcoin exchange reserves fell to a 10-year low of 2.93M BTC.
Derivatives volatility signals positioning. Funding rates spiked 113% weekly to +0.0026879%, while open interest dropped 6.03%, reflecting trader uncertainty ahead of Fed policy shifts.
Why Does It Matter: Prolonged fear phases historically compress price action before catalysts trigger relief rallies. When institutions accumulate during retail selloffs, it often precedes upward moves once sentiment flips. Watch BTC dominance at 58.55%, drops below 57% have historically signaled altcoin rotations, while holds above 59% extend Bitcoin-focused risk-off conditions.

🚨 Day of rate cuts!

Know that Powell's speech will be even more important than whether or not there is a rate cut.

Regarding the cut! You think it's going to propel the markets? Mistake, soldier. 😏

Wall Street has been waiting for this decision for weeks.
➡️ Everything is already priced in.
At the announcement: little pump… then curtains. 🎭

The market no longer wants a cut.
👉 It wants a plan, a vision, a confident Powell.
And if Powell is content to say "we're cutting today, we'll see later"…
Then prepare yourself: December – January – February, it could sting. 🩸📉

Because on the other side:
❌ Growth? Weak
❌ Inflation? Not controlled
❌ Markets? Overvalued
In short: a rate cut… with no fuel behind it.

And the final boss is coming from Japan 🎌
The BoJ could raise its rates on December 18.
Consequence? 💥
➡️ Japanese capital returns home.
➡️ Less liquidity in the US and Europe.
➡️ Global correction trigger activated.

So today, the market might hold on…
But the real movement is after — and it could hurt a lot.

So? 🧠
Will Powell reassure the world…
or witness the start of the winter correction? ❄️📉

Crypto Alpha:
Are Altcoins Outperforming Bitcoin?
Bitcoin Season persists with CMC Altcoin Season Index at 19/100 and BTC dominance holding 58.49%, near 2025 highs despite a minor 24-hour dip of 0.09 points.
Institutional capital flows heavily favor Bitcoin with spot BTC ETFs drawing $1.55 billion inflows this week compared to Ethereum's $300 million.
Derivatives markets show limited altcoin appetite as BTC perpetuals funding rates jumped 21.2% in 24 hours while altcoin-BTC spreads compressed to just 0.0014%.
Why Does It Matter: When Bitcoin dominance stays above 55% and funding rates favor BTC, altcoins usually struggle to gain momentum. Past cycles show that altcoin rallies need two things: falling BTC dominance and risk-on sentiment. Right now, Extreme Fear readings and macro uncertainty keep traders in Bitcoin's safer liquidity pool. Until dominance drops and sentiment shifts, most altcoins face headwinds even if a few tokens pump on specific news.

Bitcoin just jumped $3K in under an hour, climbing back above $94,000 while everyone was supposed to be playing it safe.

The timing? Less than 24 hours before the Fed's rate cut decision. The mood? Cautious optimism mixed with the kind of defensiveness that usually precedes a snapback.

What makes this interesting is what traders are positioned for. Most were bracing for more downside, piling into shorts and hedging against further weakness. Then the market did what it does best and punished the consensus.

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 30, deep in 'Fear' territory. Yet here we are, watching Bitcoin shrug off bearish positioning while $260 million in leveraged shorts got liquidated in just four hours.

So what happens next?

Crypto Alpha:
What Cryptos Are Showing Bullish Momentum?
ULTILAND (ARTX) jumped 21.85% in 24 hours and 174.73% in 7 days after launching a trading rewards program and a $50M fund to bring traditional artists on-chain.
Monad (MON) spiked 31.39% in 24 hours following its mainnet launch and $105M airdrop, with only 10% of tokens circulating and over 2M daily transactions.
BUILDon (B) rallied 12.96% in 24 hours after World Liberty Financial purchased 636,961 tokens, triggering a 530% price spike tied to Trump-linked entity activity.
Why Does It Matter: These three coins are gaining while the broader market sits in fear (CMC Fear & Greed Index at 16/100). When Bitcoin dominance is high (58.9%), small moves in niche projects can signal early capital rotation before altcoins catch up. Past cycles show that coins with new incentives, mainnet launches, or whale purchases often lead short bursts before the wider market follows.

Crypto Alpha:
What Upcoming Events May Impact Crypto?
Fed ends Quantitative Tightening on December 1, 2025, potentially injecting liquidity that historically correlates with Bitcoin rallies given its 0.75 correlation with tech stocks.
Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade launches December 3, 2025, introducing PeerDAS to cut validator costs and Layer-2 fees for networks like Arbitrum and Optimism.
FOMC rate decision on December 10, 2025 carries 57% odds of a cut per CME FedWatch, which could override weak technicals or trigger liquidations across $814B in open interest.
Why Does It Matter: When the Fed adds money to markets, Bitcoin and crypto often rise because investors look for higher returns. When Ethereum becomes cheaper to use, more people and apps use it, which can push prices up. Past Fed rate cuts have sparked crypto rallies, while rate holds or hikes have caused sharp drops.

💎 Crypto: this president is facing serious accusations!
Argentinian President Javier Milei is at the center of a major crypto-political scandal.

It all started with a project called Libra, a token he publicly supported in February 2025.

Presented as an innovative solution to stimulate the Argentine economy, the project quickly turned into a financial nightmare.

Today, a parliamentary commission accuses Milei of participating in an alleged scam, with estimated losses between 250 and 280 million dollars.

The report speaks of a high-level organized pump and dump, involving several close associates of the president.

A presidential promotion that is turning into a disaster
On February 3, 2025, Milei tweets about the Libra token, which has just been launched... three minutes earlier.

No technical foundation, no solid project, just a massive announcement effect.

In a few hours, the price of the token skyrockets, before collapsing by 90%.

The tweet is deleted, but the investors find themselves ruined.

According to analysts, this perfect timing suggests premeditated coordination.

What seemed like simple political support increasingly resembles market manipulation.

The chart of the week
📊 Bitcoin: ETF outflows are intensifying
The chart shows the cumulative flows of Bitcoin ETFs since their launch.

After a peak at $126,000, outflows have accelerated, with 44,000 BTC leaving the ETFs since October.

Here are the important takeaways from this chart:

🔻 This is the second largest wave of outflows ever recorded (the first, in February-April, reached 60,000 BTC).

⚙️ Every 10,000 BTC of outflows over 30 days reduces Bitcoin's performance by about 3.5%, so the current correction is consistent with this relationship.

🔄 The market is trapped in a cycle of liquidations: sales lead to further outflows, which increase the pressure on the price.

➡️ As long as the flows do not stabilize, the scenario remains bearish.

Ecoinometrics models point to a potential stabilization zone between $69,000 and $81,000.

For now, no signs of a sustainable reversal appear in the flows — evidence that the purge phase is not yet over.