浩永说趋势

Friends who just entered the circle must be feeling restless lately: positions are glowing green, the K-line is heading downwards, and U.S. stocks are also weakening in sync. Is the crypto market about to repeat the 'black swan'? As an analyst who has been deeply involved in the industry for 8 years, let me directly point out the key issue: this wave of decline is not due to problems with the project's fundamentals, but rather a liquidity crisis triggered by the U.S. government's 'shutdown'. The rush to cut losses is the real pitfall!
Many people only see the market decline but do not understand the underlying funding logic: The two parties in the U.S. are deadlocked, and the government has been shut down for 37 days, tying the historical record. In the absence of funds, the Treasury can only 'siphon' from the market to save itself, having drawn nearly $700 billion over the past two months. It's like a large portion of the market's funding pool has suddenly been drained, with banks' available funds sharply reduced, leading to a direct depletion of liquidity in the entire market — the Federal Reserve's bank reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 2021, indicating a severe tightening of funds.

Can you believe it? Back then, digital assets that could be exchanged for two pizzas with tomato sauce can now buy a Phantom in full with just one unit — this isn't a sci-fi movie, it's the most magical reality in the crypto market. But compared to the lament of 'missing a billion', the more heart-wrenching truth is: wealth freedom ten years from now has never been about blind luck, but about understanding the 'rhythm of trends' at this very moment.
As someone who has been watching the market for 8 years and has been through 3 bear markets, let me share some real insights today: stop getting hung up on 'where the bottom is', you need to understand 'why 1 million is just the starting point'.

Haven't you seen too many people rush into the digital asset market with dreams of getting rich, only to end up losing their principal completely? Don't be quick to blame the 'market for cutting leeks'; in fact, most people lose due to two words: messing around!
As an analyst who has been in the field for 5 years, I started with only 2000 in basic funds, and now my account has long surpassed 1 million. No insider information, never gambled on so-called 'black swan' events, relying solely on the principle of 'stability' throughout — after all, in this market of unpredictable ups and downs, staying alive is the only way to wait for the opportunity to make money.

As an old player in the crypto market with over 3000 hours of watching, who has faced three major peaks and escaped major bears, I've seen too many newbies rush in with 'get-rich dreams', only to be taught a lesson by the market in a week — either chasing highs and guarding positions or cutting losses at the floor, and then crying that 'the crypto world is all a scam'.
In fact, making money in the crypto world is never about luck, but about the 'anti-human nature' practical logic! Today, I will share the practical tips I have repeatedly verified. Newbies should remember them; at least they can avoid 3 years of detours:
Never chase a straight line uptrend! The gentlest opportunities in the market are always hidden in sideways consolidations or when corrections stabilize. Last year, a certain popular coin surged 200% in three days, and the community was filled with voices of 'going all in to get rich'. I directly advised my followers to take profits and exit — sure enough, the next day it plummeted 40%, and those who chased the high ended up trapped at the peak. Remember: when the crowd is clamoring, it's time to calmly exit; when no one is discussing, that's when you should pay more attention.

After 8 years in the industry, the most frequently asked question is: “Analyst, can 10,000 in capital turn into 1 million in the cryptocurrency world?” Today, my unified response is: Yes! But it’s not about blindly leveraging and gambling on luck; it’s about my 5 years of personal testing with a zero liquidation safe rolling method — beginners can copy the homework directly after reading, and catching one major trend can achieve a leap in wealth!
Many people have a fatal misunderstanding of rolling positions: they think “rolling positions = liquidation,” which is completely wrong! Those who get liquidated are not facing a leverage issue, but rather a lack of bottom line greed — heavy positions + high leverage + no stop-loss is not called investment; it’s called giving away money. I have always emphasized to my fans: the safe way to play with 10,000 in capital is centered around “low leverage + controlled positions.” Using 10% of the position to open 10 times leverage has a risk similar to spot trading, and is far more reliable than going all in on some altcoin.

"The missed opportunities are not about the gains, but the irreparable flaws in human nature" — I engraved this sentence on the homepage of my trading software, and every time I feel impulsive, it brings me back to reality.
Too much talk brings tears; the pits I stepped into back then were denser than the bullish candles on the K-line chart.
In 2020, I invested in a mainstream digital asset for $1,800, and after a big bearish candle hit $2,400, I immediately took profit with the mindset of 'securing the gains.' The next day, it shot straight up to $4,300! Staring at my empty account page, I slapped myself — it turns out the most ruthless harvesting in a bull market targets those who lose control of their emotions.

Consolidation is not a grind; it's large funds gathering strength! I watched a certain mainstream coin consolidate for 3 weeks, and every time it tested key support levels, the volume shrank. I decisively positioned with a small amount, and later it broke the range and surged directly by 40%; but that sudden straight-line surge of 'rocket coins,' I fell into a deadly pit in 2022 - chasing it on the day resulted in a 25% pullback, all driven by short-term emotional speculation, with no fundamental support. This kind of 'life-and-death question' I absolutely won't touch!
2. When the crowd is bustling, quietly leave the scene.
When the community and friend circles are all shouting 'hundredfold coins' and 'it's going to take off,' even your downstairs uncle comes asking about crypto, quickly reduce your position! The real safe exit point has always been before 'everyone wants to get on board.' In 2021, I lost 40% in 3 days because of greed, adding to my position at the peak of a certain altcoin's popularity. Looking back now, it still hurts - the excitement belongs to others, the losses are mine.

Who understands! As a post-90s person squeezed in a village in Guangzhou, I ventured into the cryptocurrency world with 50,000 in assets, and for the first three years, the word 'unlucky' was welded on my forehead — my positions were wiped out, platforms collapsed, and my principal was cleaned out completely, even my long-term partner couldn't take it anymore and ran away.
The most absurd thing was on 3.12, I was crying with a bottle of wine in a rental room until I lost consciousness. When I woke up and checked the market, I was shocked: some people went bankrupt and jumped off buildings overnight, while others bottom-fished and turned the tide, and I, this 'slacker,' actually managed to avoid this shocking crash thanks to a hangover.
The cryptocurrency world is never short of myths like '2,000 turning into millions,' but I am the ordinary person without a protagonist's halo. To survive in a market filled with corpses and reach eight figures, it's not luck that got me here, but the lessons learned from seven years of losses, countless hours of reviewing trades, and the four 'iron rules for survival' ingrained in my bones — this is the core logic that allows retail investors to survive and make money:

Divide your capital into 5 parts, and invest only 1 part for each trade! Set a hard stop loss at 10 points; if you make one mistake, you only lose 2% of your total capital. Even if you're unlucky and make 5 mistakes in a row, you'll only lose 10% — keeping your capital means you have infinite chances to turn things around. Profits must have a take profit set at over 10 points; never be greedy, so you will never be 'trapped' by the market, after all, 'money in hand is real money.'
2. The trend knows money better than you; going with the trend doubles your winning rate.
Don't go against the trend! A rebound in a downtrend is like the sweet talk of a scumbag; it looks tempting but will trap you without discussion. A pullback in an uptrend is the golden opportunity to pick up money. Compared to blindly bottom-fishing or going against the trend, following the big direction makes earning money twice as easy — remember: the trend is the market's 'lifeblood'; follow it to get the benefits.

Why do some people make a fortune with leverage, while others lose their principal to thin air? After 8 years in the industry and witnessing the ups and downs of thousands of trading accounts, I must speak honestly today: high leverage is never a monster; the real danger lies in the 'greed + foolish operations' that drive it!
Many people hear 'leverage' and run far away, as if it comes with a 'liquidation curse.' But you forget, when the market starts moving, a 5-point rise in spot prices combined with the right direction of high leverage can directly double your returns — this is not luck; it is the mathematical effect of leverage, a 'super bonus' for those who understand the market.

Last night, I had a small gathering with three veterans deeply involved in Web3. After a few glasses of whiskey, one senior who had been through the grind for 12 years said something that made me get up in the middle of the night to check industry data — this is not "left hand pouring into right hand"; it's clearly a big player laying out a "支付宝级" strategy for Web3!
During the dinner, when talking about the industry leader Aster, I casually remarked, "Isn't this just repackaging for profit?" My senior directly waved his hand and said, "You only see the surface, you don't understand the ambition of the ecological closed loop." His words awakened me: back then, Taobao had already monopolized e-commerce; why did Jack Ma insist on creating Alipay despite the pressure? At that time, no one believed in third-party payments, and what happened? Alipay bridged the last link of trust in transactions, solidly building an impregnable ecological moat, transforming Taobao from a "trading platform" into a "basic infrastructure for life."

Do you think making money in the crypto market relies on staying up late and listening to insider information? I've been in the industry for 8 years and have seen too many 'smart people' chase highs and lows, losing money to the point of eating instant noodles. In contrast, a senior who quietly made a fortune used 4 'foolish methods' to turn 100,000 into 42 million and even helped a brother who lost over 600,000 break even and earn a BMW X3 in half a year — Today, I will share this hardcore logic with you. Understand it and avoid taking 3 years of detours!
As an analyst who immerses in K-lines every day, I firmly believe: the core of the crypto market is not 'making quick money,' but 'surviving and making steady money.' Those shouting 'catch the bottom of hundred-fold new coins' are 99% traps for cutting leeks; the ones who can truly eat meat long-term are those who can control their hands and endure their patience, the 'anti-smart individuals.'

In 2018, with 1 million cash, I rushed into the crypto market, patting my chest and telling my wife, 'Double it in a year, buy a house in three years' — looking back now, I was simply a pure 'newbie': chasing hot trends until 3 AM, buying rebounds halfway up the mountain, fully leveraged without batting an eye, staring at the K-line chart every day imagining financial freedom, and as a result, 3 years later, my account was left with only 230,000, and the family meeting turned into a 'divorce warning meeting.' During that time, even eating instant noodles felt like a betrayal to my wife and children.
Fortunately, the stubbornness ingrained in my bones didn't make me back down. I locked myself in my study for 3 months, meticulously reviewing thousands of transaction records, only to realize: I didn't lose because of luck; I died from 'the fearless ignorance' — holding a full position against volatility, catching falling knives against the trend, and chasing skyrocketing coins as a bag holder, each step was on the edge of a loss. In the fourth year, I started anew with the remaining funds, relying on the hard-learned rules I summarized, and now my account has long surpassed 34 million. Today, I share these 6 lessons learned with real money; understanding them can save you 5 years of detours!

After struggling in the crypto world for 7 years, I've seen too many retail investors entering the market with around a thousand U — that little money is held tighter than hands in a passionate romance. They want to turn things around against the odds, yet are afraid that they will wake up one day and find themselves with nothing, turning their investments into an 'extreme heartbeat challenge.'
But to be honest, a thousand U in the crypto world doesn't even count as a 'small splash.' Relying on this little capital to survive, let alone make money, is useless when looking at the red and green fluctuations on the K-line chart. What matters is my summarized 'retail survival iron law' — this is not just motivational talk; it's practical knowledge gleaned from seeing too many people lose all their capital.

Who hasn't stumbled in the crypto market? In mid-2023, I entered with 120,000, hoping to share in the profits, but I ended up hitting a niche cryptocurrency that collectively corrected, and my account shrank to less than 3,000, which can only be described as 'falling from the clouds into a pit of mud.'
During that time, I was utterly obsessed: I stayed up until two or three in the morning, constantly watching the market, always feeling that one more trade could turn things around. I opened leverage trading only to have it blow up, and even when my 'favorite' token dropped by 50%, I clung to the fantasy that it would rebound, helplessly watching my balance dwindle to zero. That feeling of despair still gives me chills when I think back on it.

Who hasn't had a moment of heated impulse rushing into the market? I plunged into the digital asset space with a capital of 20,000, and within three months, I was beaten down by the market to only 1200 left. At three in the morning, staring at the green numbers on the screen, my finger hovered over the uninstall button for half an hour, almost saying goodbye to this love-hate place.
Later, I pulled out all the losing trades and reviewed them one by one, turning the painful lessons into 7 ironclad rules etched into my bones — no relying on luck, no relying on insider tips, purely relying on knowledge to turn the tables, rolling from 1200 to 280,000 in half a year. Today, I'm sharing these practical insights from the heart; each one is a piece of survival wisdom I earned with hard cash, and understanding them can save you three years of detours.

At 2 AM, the trading platform page showing a balance of 1200U felt like an ice pick stabbing my eyes—three months ago, when I jumped into the crypto circle with 20,000 as capital, I never imagined I would fall to the point where I couldn't even press the 'uninstall' button.
That day, I pulled out all my trading records and calculated from dawn to dusk, realizing that what I lost wasn't just money, but also the mindless greed and luck. Later, I chewed on these lessons and digested them, and six months later, my 1200U grew to 280,000U—this is not some triumphant story, but the inevitable result of replacing 'death-seeking operations' with 'survival rules'.

As a veteran in the cryptocurrency space with 10 years of in-depth cyclical research, having witnessed the wild fluctuations of the crypto market and keeping an eye on gold for over a decade, I must share a heart-wrenching truth with you today — the more gold prices soar, the less good it is! The underlying pattern here is even more accurate than the bull-bear transitions in cryptocurrencies; understanding it can save you hundreds of thousands!
Let’s get straight to the point; this is the ironclad rule I’ve summarized from 30 years of data: each major bull market in gold has almost always coincided with the rhythm of a global financial crisis! The gold frenzy from 1971 to 1980 had the 1974 global financial crisis perfectly sandwiched in the middle, directly pushing gold prices to their peak; the gold bull market that started in 2001 was even more brutal, with the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis hitting precisely, confirming the saying that 'a bull market must be accompanied by a crisis' — this is not a coincidence; it's the underlying logic of capital seeking refuge at work!

The person sending the message is Lin Jie, who manages funds. She usually works steadily, but who would have thought she would stumble in the cryptocurrency market. The turnover funds she manages were all invested due to the market frenzy at the beginning of the year, and in just a few weeks, she lost everything, leaving only 3200 basic units — this was her last chance to turn things around, and also the last straw that broke the camel's back.
No one could have imagined that this seemingly weak 'spark' would later ignite an incredible turnaround: 120,000, 280,000... until all the previous losses were covered, and the account finally settled at 1,000,000! This is not a fabricated story, but a real case that happened around me in 2023.

Who says trading coins must chase contracts and gamble on news? As a seasoned analyst who has been watching the market for 5 years, today I’m sharing a 'counter-smart' strategy from the bottom of my heart — no need to watch the market until dawn, no need to guess the main force's direction. With a capital of 100,000, just follow along. I have personally tested it for two years without any losses, and many fans executing it have already broken through 7 figures!
The core logic is simple: follow the trend and don't fight human nature. Complex indicators are traps; the methods that truly make money are often so simple that they are overlooked. The following 4 steps each contain valuable insights that I summarized after stepping into pitfalls:
The first step is to select coins that only recognize 'MACD golden cross + above the 0 axis'. Don't listen to things like 'buying the dip on undervalued assets' or 'new coin potential stocks'; I've seen too many newbies die from 'picking up bargains'. Open the daily chart on mainstream platforms and only filter for two signals: first, MACD shows a golden cross (short-term moving average crossing above the long-term moving average), and second, the position of the golden cross must be above the 0 axis. If both conditions are met, it directly filters out 90% of junk coins — a golden cross above the 0 axis indicates that the coin itself is in an upward trend, with an 80% higher probability of subsequent increases compared to below the 0 axis. It's like picking up money while standing on the shoulders of giants, saving 80% of the stock selection hassle.