The end of the year has come, and everything has started to decline.
In the first phase of the bear market, we first observe the price falling below the annual line. Cryptocurrency, the A-share market, and the US stock market all cannot escape the fate of prices falling below the annual line.
Bitcoin has fallen below the annual line, leading to a great depression of all currencies.
The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the annual line, leading to a major bear market for thousands of stocks.
The Nasdaq has fallen below the annual line, with individual stocks responding in kind.
The overall direction of the three markets is that prices are all facing the annual line, entering a major correction.
Discussion on the Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Bitcoin Prices
Many people now believe that 'a rate cut will inevitably lead to price increases, while a rate hike will inevitably lead to price declines.' Today, I am preparing to review historical data to examine the correlation between the two from a historical perspective. Bitcoin was born in 2009, at the darkest moment of the global financial crisis. Satoshi Nakamoto left the message 'Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks' in the genesis block. Chapter One (The Wild Growth of Bitcoin) The first bull market of Bitcoin, characterized by its wild growth in a loose environment, lasted from December 2008 to December 2015, during which the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, known as the zero interest rate policy period. Bitcoin experienced two epic bubbles in 2011 and 2013. However, at that time, Bitcoin was still in its infancy, and the market size was so small that the macro monetary policy was unlikely to have a significant impact on its price fluctuations; instead, it was merely a case of small groups of people speculating with each other.
Bitcoin has dropped to $70,000 The Bank of Japan (Japan's central bank) may raise interest rates. Many analysts believe that if this happens, Bitcoin could drop as well, possibly to around $70,000. Why is that? Because according to past data, since 2024, every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, Bitcoin has seen significant drops (over 20%). The logic behind this is: a rate hike by Japan will strengthen the yen, increasing the cost of borrowing (especially borrowing yen to buy other assets). Many international investors previously borrowed cheap yen and converted it into dollars to buy high-risk assets like Bitcoin (this is called “yen carry trade”). Now that the yen is being raised, they need to quickly repay their loans and sell their Bitcoin, leading to a decrease in the money supply in the market. With less money, everyone becomes more cautious about investing, making volatile assets like Bitcoin more likely to drop. Many economists predict that the Bank of Japan will announce a rate hike on December 19. The Bitcoin price chart also appears to be heading down (referred to in the news as a “bear flag pattern”). · Therefore, analysts warn that if a rate hike does occur, Bitcoin may retrace to the range of $70,000 to $72,500. When Japan tightens the “tap” (raises rates), the money in the global market decreases, and assets like Bitcoin, which rely on liquidity, may also drop. That's the point, it's not complicated; it's just a chain reaction caused by the flow of international funds. #美联储降息 $BTC
After the interest rate cut, the US stock market has also started to pull back.
In particular, AI concept stocks, like Nvidia and Oracle, have been leading the sell-off, with a decline that is much greater in both intensity and magnitude than the overall market.
These two stocks had significant gains in the past two years.
There are no stocks that only go up without ever going down; any asset will oscillate around a long-term trend line in a spiral over time.
The US stock market is also likely to enter a bear market along with the major A-shares and the cryptocurrency sector.
For now, let's keep an eye on Nvidia and Oracle's prices as they fall below the annual line. #美联储降息 $BTC
Fogo announced the cancellation of the previously announced $20 million token presale plan before the mainnet launch on January 2026 and will change the originally allocated 2% FOGO tokens for presale to airdrop to the community. The project previously planned to sell 2% of the tokens at a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1 billion. According to the latest disclosed tokenomics model, 38.98% of the tokens will be unlocked at the mainnet launch, including the airdrop portion that can be traded immediately, tokens for foundation operations, and phased unlocks for core contributors; institutional investors and advisors will receive 8.77% and 7% respectively. Additionally, Fogo has burned the 2% initial token supply originally allocated to core contributors. (The Block) #加密市场反弹 $BTC
At the end of the year, there are many spikes in the market, but no real increase.
I looked at the A-shares, US stocks, and cryptocurrency. Now it's basically like this, many large-cap stocks have a lot of upper shadows on their weekly charts.
There are very few that actually close with a solid gain.
In this kind of market, very few people can resist temptation. As soon as it rises, they chase it, and as soon as they chase it, they get trapped. Cutting losses and getting trapped, a continuous death cycle.
Over time, the account balance slowly approaches zero.
Sometimes when the market is bad, learning to stay still is also a kind of wisdom; at least staying still won't frequently get you beaten.
As for opportunities, the market has never lacked opportunities.
It only depends on whether your principal is still there when the opportunity arises. #加密市场反弹 $BTC
The Federal Reserve's boot has dropped. According to the dot plot, it shows that there may only be one rate cut next year. There are still significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, and the most important data will depend on the demand in the labor market for next year's rate cut strategy.
Now there is another boot waiting to drop, which is the matter of Japan raising interest rates. Currently, rumors widely suggest that around the 18th, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%. If Japan starts raising rates and continues with a hawkish stance, global capital will begin to change its flow. This topic has already been discussed previously, and it will definitely be bearish for Bitcoin.
From a data perspective, long-term holders have been selling continuously, and the speed is faster than before. I don't know if they have noticed something. As for ETF data, it has been relatively stable recently, maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows. #加密市场反弹 $BTC
The bull market does not require good news, while in a bear market, good news is useless.
The interest rate cut has landed, and the overall direction should still follow the established path.
Personally, I am not optimistic about the future market, and I will not change my view because of the interest rate cut; in fact, news cannot fundamentally change the overall direction.
As the saying goes:
If the overall direction is in a bull market, no matter how much bad news is spread, it cannot change the overall trend of the market moving upwards.
If the overall direction is in a bear market, no matter how much good news is spread, it cannot change the overall trend of the market moving downwards.
News can at most influence short-term fluctuations.
In other words, the bear market continuously has news to delay the decline of the market, which is why the bear market can last for a long time. #美联储降息 $BTC $ETH
How much can you earn by investing 1 million three years ago? Invested 1 million in FIL, now remaining 80,000 Invested 1 million in ICP, now remaining 30,000 Invested 1 million in EOS, now remaining 250,000 Invested 1 million in LUNA, now remaining 0.5 yuan Invested 1 million in XCH, now remaining 20,000 Invested 1 million in STEPN, now remaining 50,000 Invested 1 million in FTT, now remaining 0 Invested 1 million in note, now remaining 3 yuan, the group owner also left behind money for a bottle of cola, humanistic care $FIL #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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