币圈小喵

This round of bull market should be the worst in the history of cryptocurrencies

1. General losses: In the first half of this year, most people lost money, and only a few people made profits. Many of the losers are old investors in the currency circle. Even if they have resources and capital, this bull market is particularly harsh, and many people cannot get out of the trap.

2. Collective panic: In the past, people thought that there would be a big bull market two or three months before and after the halving of BTC, but BTC almost finished rising last year. The same is true for altcoins. When everyone thinks the market is coming, it is actually over. After missing BTC, they collectively boarded altcoins, and the result was that there was no rise after boarding.

3. Collapse of altcoins: Many altcoins will return to zero. Unlike previous rounds of bull markets, today's consensus logic and investment standards have changed. Altcoins are no longer seen as opportunities, and many people are eliminated as a result. The consensus of altcoins collapsed, and no one paid after the inside story was exposed, and a rapid collapse occurred, burying many people.

4. VC consensus collapses: Investors no longer hold high respect and faith in venture capital, and their words and actions have very low trust.

5. Project entrepreneurship becomes more difficult: Project parties need to understand future trends, community needs, marketing and community operations, which are becoming increasingly difficult. There are fewer and fewer successful projects, and retail investors' trust in project parties is also decreasing, forming a vicious cycle.

6. Cryptocurrency dividends fade: The currency circle dividends fade, and everyone is eager to quickly obtain wealth freedom, which seems very anxious. After this round of bull market, many people are worried about their future in the circle.

7. Ideological change: This round of bull market has brought many changes in ideology and consensus forms, and everyone needs to re-understand the crypto circle. Don't be impatient, don't be discouraged, don't be happy too early, and don't lose the pattern.

8. Unexpected changes: This round of bull market will make many people's years of accumulation go to waste, and things you didn't expect will happen. After so many years of happiness, it's not too much to be sad once.

The cruelty and complexity of this bull market are unprecedented, reminding us to remain calm and rational in the pursuit of wealth.

This is the start of the matrix
Or is it a brand new newcomer in the crypto world!
Treat the TGE new issuance as an airdrop!
Simply curious, no other meaning

Binance Alpha has new rules again!
Previously, those with a balance lower than 100u were removed
Targeting account bans and suspensions
Now with the new rules, the deduction increased from 15 points to 30 points
Did you all not watch yesterday's THQ? 30 points to receive an airdrop
Next, will it be to increase trading volume or resign?
You should know that when 30 points become the norm, you can't avoid receiving a 20-40u airdrop with 30 points

Family, it's getting harder to endure day by day!

Last night, the big pancake was pulled down by the US stock market, dropping to a low of 85,000, and the 90,000 level that we defended for many days has officially been breached. Currently, it's torturing people at the 86,000 line, with no decent support visible on the 4-hour chart, and the trend is bearish.
Looking at Ethereum: the price is stuck between two long-term downtrend lines. Yesterday, it hit the neckline position of the 7-day retracement, showing a large bearish candle, but the key level of 2623 hasn't been broken yet, so the pattern is not dead for now. This morning's bearish candle has upper and lower shadows, indicating pressure above and support below, but the daily chart still shows no signs of a bottom.

This week is crucial:
Tonight's non-farm payroll, Japan's interest rate hike on the 19th, with both events colliding, high volatility is certain. However, if we can get through this week, the sentiment will likely begin to cool down, and a real rebound may be postponed until January.

The only thing we can do now is: reduce leverage, control risks, and survive first.
This has already become the standard rhythm of a phase of a bear market, and it certainly doesn't resemble what a bull market should look like. Rate cuts in December, a slowdown in balance sheet reduction, and Ethereum upgrades have all failed to drive the market up. The fundamental reason is simple—money doesn't flow into the crypto market immediately; it usually first goes to the stock and bond markets, taking as little as two weeks, or as long as two to three months.
#巨鲸动向

$ONDO
Currently, the outlook is still bearish.
The daily trend is still in a downward trend. If ONDO does not stabilize at the support of 0.42 in the short term,
it will continue to decline. Just wait!

Without altcoins, the cryptocurrency world lacks soul.
Retail investors aren't here to hedge with a big pie; they're aiming for the hundredfold or thousandfold volatility of altcoins. A daily ±50% is the traffic code of the crypto world. Now there's not even a 10% fluctuation; it seems like funds are withdrawing, but in fact, no one is willing to take over.

The logic is simple:
① If altcoins don't rally, retail investors won't come;
② If retail investors don't come, the market lacks heat;
③ A blockchain without popularity is just code left behind.
If there's never an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency world will slowly degrade into a "digital hedging market."
On the surface, it doesn't look too bad.
Now let's take a look at today's market situation:

BTC has broken below the 4H fluctuation zone, testing the support at 87600;
ETH is troublesome, but after breaking the fluctuation zone, it was pulled back, overall still stronger than BTC.
The problem lies in: the big pie is weak, and Ethereum wants to strengthen independently, which is not easy.

The trend hasn't stopped falling; those looking for bears can leave, and those looking for bulls should hold on, accepting the fluctuations themselves.
ETH has broken the neckline and is currently undergoing a second retest:
– The first retest dipped to 2910;
– It is still near the neckline, with no clear stop-loss signal;
– The MACD bullishness has been damaged, but once is not enough; more K-lines are needed for confirmation.
The sentiment these days is even more panic than that on 10.11. After the black swan event, everyone is waiting for a rebound; once the rebound reaches the descending trend line, it gets pushed back down—slow to rise, fast to fall, very real.

My conclusion is simple: as long as it doesn't fall below 2623, the direction hasn't reversed yet. Patience is more important than judgment.
#美联储降息

The current big cake is becoming more and more like a knockoff, with a heavy flavor of forced control.

Last night, the US stock market fell sharply, and BTC followed, breaking 90,000, but quickly rebounded, although the rebound strength is very weak, so don't expect any smooth main upward wave in the short term.
The real directional choice will likely have to wait for the Japanese interest rate hike to land.

Structurally, it's very clear:
Whether the 90,500 level can be stabilized in 4 hours is key.
If it can stay above, there is a chance to rush to 100,000;
If it can't hold 90,000, be prepared for a second bottom test and continue wide fluctuations.

Ethereum has continuously closed with big bearish candles these two days, which is actually a typical secondary retest of the neckline.
In the early stage of the bull market, there should be repeated washing to clear short-term floating profits and scare off following retail investors.
This morning, it briefly broke the neckline and quickly pulled back, indicating effective support;
It did not break through the long-term downward line in one go, just faced resistance and retested, building strength for the next attack.
The overall high and low points are rising, and after a big bearish candle in 4 hours, it meets a doji star, forming a pregnant line structure, indicating that it is moving in a fluctuating manner rather than reversing.

The market environment is also very realistic: CEX has speculative funds sitting in, and there are people controlling the market in Alpha, but the overall market is weak, making it extremely difficult to operate. If you're unsure, it's safer to act less frequently than to act frequently.

The pullback is a process, not the end point. The direction is still upwards, so be patient and watch for the northbound trend.
#加密市场观察

The most intuitive feeling in the current market is still — the painting door market, harmonious control of the field, direction random!
Including this wave of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market is still the same, belonging to 'hawkish rate cuts.' Powell will step down in May, and if he wants to continue the bull market, he can only wait for the new chairman to take office.
#BTC The big pie currently wants to rush to 98,000 to reduce positions, and those who want to return to 80,000 for a second test are waiting to get on board; now it is a typical range fluctuation. If you don't have the heart to gamble, then leave; if you want to sell at a high point, just wait a few more days.
This month's Christmas 'robbery' market shouldn't be thought too much about; liquidity will be worse because foreigners are all celebrating.
Let's take a closer look at #ETH technical aspects:
1. High and low points are still rising;
2. On the 9th, a large bullish breakout of the previous high;
3. The small doji after the bullish line indicates strong resistance above, which is already near the trend line;
4. This morning's bearish line has a lower shadow, with support at the bottom;
5. In the rising phase, bearish indicators will be weakened, and the reference power of the bearish line will decrease.
In summary: don't panic during the second pullback, first clarify the market situation before speaking.
#美联储降息

The Federal Reserve meeting yesterday highlighted two key points for the market:

First: Forget about interest rate hikes; there will be a cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
Don’t get hung up on 'not enough cuts' or 'not strong enough'; these calculations are not ours to make. The real key is one thing: as long as we are still in a rate-cutting cycle for the next two years and liquidity expectations are not dead, that is the biggest support for the market.

Second: Starting December 13th, there will be a monthly repurchase of $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
This is the real 'opening the floodgates' signal. After continuously tightening, the tapering will stop in December, and now directly expanding the balance sheet = the authorities are injecting liquidity into the market.

Don’t focus on those 25 basis points; the real good news is written in the balance sheet.
Powell's rhetoric + actual actions are pointing in the same direction: easing is on the way.
In the short term, crypto is still in a volatile phase; in the long term, the main character will always be 'new money'.
However, it will be difficult to establish a trend in December for two reasons:
Expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan are weighing down (already reflected in prices)
Year-end seasonal liquidity tightening ('Christmas squeeze')
Without new catalysts, we can only rely on existing news to repeatedly wash out positions.

The strategy for the next two weeks is simple:
Short on rallies, or hold onto last night's low-leverage long positions. Short-term support is at 3130 and 2940, but there is a higher probability of a retest of the previous low around 2700.

#美联储降息

Alpha are you still holding on? I have resigned for more than half a month!
Today counts as a wave of good news, friends who are still holding on can eat three times
Did anyone tell me, is it now possible to return?
#加密市场观察

AI leader $TAO welcomes its first halving this week, with daily output directly reduced from 7200 to 3600. 81% has been staked, and circulation is thin. After the halving, supply and demand will be tighter, and short-term sentiment is expected to strengthen.

Recently, the bankruptcy concept surged and then retreated. $LUNC, LUNA, FTT, etc., are being speculated based on news (upgrades, sentencing, trial nodes, etc.) with sentiment exploding, mostly belonging to impulse markets, and chasing highs is not recommended.

Today's highlights👇
1⃣ Major Thursday: FOMC interest rate decision + dot plot + Powell's press conference.
2⃣ TAO halving: officially halving on 12.14, total supply of 21 million, similar model to BTC.
3⃣ SEC actions: privacy and regulation roundtable on 12.15, focus on positive policy expectations.
4⃣ Bitcoin-native listed company is here: Cantor + Twenty One merger, landing on the NYSE on 12.9, code XXI.
5⃣ High-level pullback of bankruptcy concepts: previously boosted by events, the heat is clearly receding.
6⃣ Unlock warning: APT, LINEA, CHEEL will see large releases, with APT unlocking about $19.3 million.
7⃣ Robinhood expands into Southeast Asia, entering the Indonesian market, with crypto trading + brokerage business together.
8⃣ ASTR buyback upgrade: S4 will start on 12.10, with daily buybacks of about 4 million, and 60–90% of costs going towards buybacks.

The key this week is — FOMC and TAO halving. The sentiment in the bankruptcy sector is overstretched, watch for differentiation; liquidity is leaning towards strong main lines, and thematic rotation will be faster.
#加密市场观察

Last night, "Brother Ma Ji" had multiple positions liquidated at 2989, with both longs and shorts exploding, a typical bell ringing before a trend change.
In two days, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting to discuss interest rates, and a rate cut is highly likely; on the six-hour level, it is still on the right side of the trend line, and the volume is increasing, with solid support around 2900, and the bulls are not weak.

My own judgment is very simple: the market always has two sides, where there is darkness, there is light, where there is an increase, there is a decrease, and only after adjustment can the true trend emerge.

The warmth of this bull market has dissipated, and the altcoins are being washed away.
Chaotic projects can't hold on, and eventually, someone has to fall off the table.
This is painful, but it's also a good thing—only with the exit of worthless projects can funds flow back to truly promising directions.
The era of white papers painting grand visions and telling stories to deceive investors is slowly coming to an end.

🔍 Back to the ETH chart (6 hours)
The trend hasn't turned bad yet, but it's not strong enough to charge in blindly:
Still oscillating on the right side of the descending trend line → Not yet a new round of decline, but the bulls are not strong enough
Higher highs and lows → Structure remains intact
3250 met resistance and fell back, volume decreased, small body → Bulls are weak
3080 key support has been lost
Bears are gaining volume, and the decline hasn't stopped yet

📌 The moment the decline stops is the opportunity.
The trend hasn't turned bad, but the confirmation signal hasn't arrived—wait, no rush.
After the washout, there will be soil for the next market phase.

Here’s a little summary for today:
1. This weekend was simply a "negative impact package":
The 13 domestic ministries reiterated regulation, the Bank of Japan is hawkish and plans to raise interest rates, rumors of Powell stepping down early, and a chaotic list of candidates for Federal Reserve chair. Even MicroStrategy hinted at the possibility of selling coins in extreme situations.
A series of news items came one after another, and the market was directly hammered—privacy tokens were cut in half, new coins fell across the board, and even "king” coins like ZEC, MON, and IRYS could not withstand it.
2. The logic is actually very straightforward: tighter regulation → liquidity is drained → expectations become unstable → risk assets die first.
The Bank of Japan raising interest rates is the most lethal blow; once carry trade is reversed, institutions need to sell risk assets to exchange for yen, and such high-volatility assets in the crypto space are naturally the first to be cut.
3. The current market can be summed up in one sentence: if you don’t sell at the high point, the high point will sell you.
Don’t dream that new coins can hold their value; a week is considered extravagant, and it’s normal to secure profits in three days. The ones that can truly hold are always those three: BTC, ETH, SOL.
4. What about the other assets?
Run if you can; if you run slowly, you will become liquidity in others' eyes. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

The current market is in a cooling-off stage,
now even ZEC, which previously surged against the trend, has been halved, and the privacy sector has directly become the 'champion of weekend corrections': ZEC down 60%, DCR and DASH also starting at 20%; coupled with market makers being investigated, M and Sahara have been chopped into two segments.
No new coins can hold up, MON, as the first ICO of CB, was directly smashed by Arthur, causing the sentiment to collapse; the founder claims that no matter how strong the technology, it can’t save them, and the peak still gets halved; IRYS has also been sliding down, nearing its issue price. The recent rule for new coins can be summed up in one sentence: no matter how solid the background, how low the valuation, or how large the platform – if you dare to hold for a week, it dares to put you in deep trouble.
Next in line to be issued are MEGAETH, Stable, Base, ARC, SEA, and Polymarket, and it’s the same, don’t fantasize about holding long, if you need to run, just run, at most three days; beyond three days, you are basically just guarding for others. The only ones you can hold onto with peace of mind are BTC, ETH, and SOL, which have a moat; the rest are emotional coins, and once the heat is gone, they drop immediately.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

The current market is really hard to describe!

Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen again 📉, the secondary market is really tough
Alpha has raised the point threshold since mid-November, and the airdrop projects have decreased, so there isn't much to gain, as long as there's no loss, that's considered stable. I've already resigned! You all carry on, good luck to you
Now let's just play with new coins and enjoy, make a little money for some pig trotter rice $TST

$AUCTION Now An An Yao Coin is flying high! Recently, these small transactions are quite good, much better than Alpha. Alpha's little cat has stopped and is returning to the imitation.

$ETH phase rebound, this wave target sees 3400, if it encounters a pullback touching 2900, it can be withdrawn

$BANANAS31 continues empty empty empty