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#美联储降息
📉 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December: What really matters is not the cut itself, but the change in attitude behind it.
Many focus on 25 basis points, but macro traders are more concerned with:
Why is the Federal Reserve choosing to cut rates while inflation is not yet fully stabilized?
This reveals three key signals:
1️⃣ Economic downward pressure is greater than expected
The Fed would not take the “risk of inflation to cut rates” for no reason, indicating that the employment, consumption, and credit data seen internally may be weaker than what the market is perceiving.
2️⃣ Policy goals are starting to be “fine-tuned”
From “prioritizing anti-inflation” → gradually shifting to “not allowing the economy to slow down too much.”
This is a very fine line, but the direction has changed.
3️⃣ Policy is no longer pursuing a one-time solution, but rather a watch-and-see approach
The path of interest rate cuts has shifted from “clear” to “dynamic assessment.”
This uncertainty may favor risk assets in the short term, but in the long term, it means greater volatility.
📊 How does the market view this?
You will find:
• US Treasury bonds rise then pull back
• US stock market sentiment is optimistic but hesitant to explode
• The crypto market is more sensitive, directly pricing in “rate cuts = risk warming”
But the core logic is actually:
This is not a loosening cycle; this is a “forced adjustment cycle.”
💡 In other words:
The rate cut itself is not the story,
“Why cut, to what extent, and what exactly has the Fed seen”
is the key that will truly drive the market in the next 3–6 months.
📉 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December: What really matters is not the cut itself, but the change in attitude behind it.
Many focus on 25 basis points, but macro traders are more concerned with:
Why is the Federal Reserve choosing to cut rates while inflation is not yet fully stabilized?
This reveals three key signals:
1️⃣ Economic downward pressure is greater than expected
The Fed would not take the “risk of inflation to cut rates” for no reason, indicating that the employment, consumption, and credit data seen internally may be weaker than what the market is perceiving.
2️⃣ Policy goals are starting to be “fine-tuned”
From “prioritizing anti-inflation” → gradually shifting to “not allowing the economy to slow down too much.”
This is a very fine line, but the direction has changed.
3️⃣ Policy is no longer pursuing a one-time solution, but rather a watch-and-see approach
The path of interest rate cuts has shifted from “clear” to “dynamic assessment.”
This uncertainty may favor risk assets in the short term, but in the long term, it means greater volatility.
📊 How does the market view this?
You will find:
• US Treasury bonds rise then pull back
• US stock market sentiment is optimistic but hesitant to explode
• The crypto market is more sensitive, directly pricing in “rate cuts = risk warming”
But the core logic is actually:
This is not a loosening cycle; this is a “forced adjustment cycle.”
💡 In other words:
The rate cut itself is not the story,
“Why cut, to what extent, and what exactly has the Fed seen”
is the key that will truly drive the market in the next 3–6 months.
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#加密市场观察 Strategy continues All in BTC, but the stock price pressure is very high.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently invested nearly 1 billion USD, buying more than 10,000 bitcoins, with an average price around 90,000 USD.
Now they hold more than 660,000 BTC, making them one of the largest "bitcoin companies" in the world.
But interestingly:
👉 The company's stock has dropped significantly in the past six months, almost halving
👉 The overall enthusiasm for companies buying BTC has also noticeably cooled
Regarding BTC:
👉 It serves as an emotional support, at least indicating that some people are still willing to continue long-term bets at high levels
Regarding Strategy itself:
👉 They are fully committed to the bet, but the risks are all on their shoulders
Regarding the market:
👉 This is not a "bull market confirmation," but more like faith-based accumulation
Strategy is betting the company's fate on the long-term rise of bitcoin.
This is very hardcore, but not suitable for ordinary people to copy.
#Bitcoin #Strategy #crypto
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently invested nearly 1 billion USD, buying more than 10,000 bitcoins, with an average price around 90,000 USD.
Now they hold more than 660,000 BTC, making them one of the largest "bitcoin companies" in the world.
But interestingly:
👉 The company's stock has dropped significantly in the past six months, almost halving
👉 The overall enthusiasm for companies buying BTC has also noticeably cooled
Regarding BTC:
👉 It serves as an emotional support, at least indicating that some people are still willing to continue long-term bets at high levels
Regarding Strategy itself:
👉 They are fully committed to the bet, but the risks are all on their shoulders
Regarding the market:
👉 This is not a "bull market confirmation," but more like faith-based accumulation
Strategy is betting the company's fate on the long-term rise of bitcoin.
This is very hardcore, but not suitable for ordinary people to copy.
#Bitcoin #Strategy #crypto
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#带单跟单
BOBUSDT type coins are essentially high volatility + low liquidity.
The real way to make money is not to chase breakthroughs, but to wait for dips, accumulate, and wait for rebounds.
In this BOB long position, what I'm focusing on is not the "rally," but the turnover within the consolidation range.
So the approach is very simple:
👉 Buy on the dip, reduce the cost
👉 When the rebound is in place, close all positions
Don't get attached to battles, don't tell stories, just make money from liquidity.
For this type of coin, if the timing is right, one hour is enough.
#BOBUSD #短线交易 #币安永续 #交易思路
BOBUSDT type coins are essentially high volatility + low liquidity.
The real way to make money is not to chase breakthroughs, but to wait for dips, accumulate, and wait for rebounds.
In this BOB long position, what I'm focusing on is not the "rally," but the turnover within the consolidation range.
So the approach is very simple:
👉 Buy on the dip, reduce the cost
👉 When the rebound is in place, close all positions
Don't get attached to battles, don't tell stories, just make money from liquidity.
For this type of coin, if the timing is right, one hour is enough.
#BOBUSD #短线交易 #币安永续 #交易思路
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#比特币vs代币化黄金
CZ and Peter Schiff had a face-to-face debate at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai: Gold vs Bitcoin.
Interestingly, in the end, CZ invited Schiff to issue tokenized gold on Binance, and he did not deny it.
This incident itself indicates a reality:
👉 Whether Bitcoin is gold is not important, but the future gold may need to circulate on the chain.
The data is also very clear:
Gold $22T
BTC ~$2.2T
Tokenized gold ~$3.5B (still small, but on the rise)
It’s no longer a matter of “either/or,” but:
BTC is responsible for growth, gold is responsible for stability, and blockchain is responsible for efficiency.
The market has already voted with real money.
#Bitcoin #RWA #TokenizedGold #加密资产
CZ and Peter Schiff had a face-to-face debate at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai: Gold vs Bitcoin.
Interestingly, in the end, CZ invited Schiff to issue tokenized gold on Binance, and he did not deny it.
This incident itself indicates a reality:
👉 Whether Bitcoin is gold is not important, but the future gold may need to circulate on the chain.
The data is also very clear:
Gold $22T
BTC ~$2.2T
Tokenized gold ~$3.5B (still small, but on the rise)
It’s no longer a matter of “either/or,” but:
BTC is responsible for growth, gold is responsible for stability, and blockchain is responsible for efficiency.
The market has already voted with real money.
#Bitcoin #RWA #TokenizedGold #加密资产
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🐋 A whale has entered the market again.
Lookonchain data shows that the address pension-usdt.eth has opened another 20,000 ETH long position at 2x,
entry price $3,040, liquidation price directly pulled to $1,190.
It is clear that this is not a bet on short-term fluctuations,
but rather funds that can withstand pullbacks and are bullish on ETH in the long term.
At least one thing can be confirmed:
👉 Positions of this level are not afraid of short-term washouts.
✅ 2x + Deep liquidation price = Strong risk control
A liquidation price of $1,190 indicates that this position allows for significant volatility in ETH, resembling a "trend-oriented long position" rather than a high-leverage directional bet.
📈 Large funds' medium to long-term confidence in ETH
Repeatedly building positions at current price levels, rather than making a one-time gamble, shows a long-term judgment on the value and ecosystem of ETH (staking, L2, ETF expectations, etc.).
⚠️ Does not mean short-term will definitely rise
A whale's confidence does not equal an immediate market surge. Short-term fluctuations and pullbacks are still possible, but this type of behavior is a bullish signal for the "emotional bottom" and "structural bottom."
#ETH走势分析
The focus is not on the position itself, but on the structure and mentality of the position:
Not chasing highs, not using high leverage, and leaving enough room for pullbacks is the real way to survive in trading.
Lookonchain data shows that the address pension-usdt.eth has opened another 20,000 ETH long position at 2x,
entry price $3,040, liquidation price directly pulled to $1,190.
It is clear that this is not a bet on short-term fluctuations,
but rather funds that can withstand pullbacks and are bullish on ETH in the long term.
At least one thing can be confirmed:
👉 Positions of this level are not afraid of short-term washouts.
✅ 2x + Deep liquidation price = Strong risk control
A liquidation price of $1,190 indicates that this position allows for significant volatility in ETH, resembling a "trend-oriented long position" rather than a high-leverage directional bet.
📈 Large funds' medium to long-term confidence in ETH
Repeatedly building positions at current price levels, rather than making a one-time gamble, shows a long-term judgment on the value and ecosystem of ETH (staking, L2, ETF expectations, etc.).
⚠️ Does not mean short-term will definitely rise
A whale's confidence does not equal an immediate market surge. Short-term fluctuations and pullbacks are still possible, but this type of behavior is a bullish signal for the "emotional bottom" and "structural bottom."
#ETH走势分析
The focus is not on the position itself, but on the structure and mentality of the position:
Not chasing highs, not using high leverage, and leaving enough room for pullbacks is the real way to survive in trading.
See original
#美联储降息周期
The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the FOMC meeting on December 10-11 has significantly cooled.
The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75%-4.00% by 25 basis points (to 3.50%-3.75%) is about 50%, which is a typical "coin toss" situation. This probability has sharply declined from last week's 62.8% and last month's 96%, reflecting increasing uncertainty in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions.
Main Drivers of the Expectation Change
The Federal Reserve's decisions are highly dependent on its dual mandate: achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target.
Currently, the U.S. economy shows signs of a "soft landing," but inflation pressures and uneven employment data have exacerbated the divergence between hawkish (tightening) and dovish (easing) views. Here are the key influencing factors:
1. Market pricing and futures trends:
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates in December is about 50%, while the likelihood of a larger cut (50bp or more) is close to zero.
The implied median federal funds rate in the futures market for the end of 2025 is 3.775%, only slightly lower than the current level.
This indicates that investor concerns about the Federal Reserve "pausing" interest rate cuts have risen, especially in light of recent stock market volatility and hawkish statements.
2. Statements from Federal Reserve officials:
There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve: hawkish officials (such as Boston Fed President Collins) emphasize inflation risks and tend to favor delaying rate cuts; dovish officials focus on cooling employment.
The minutes from the October FOMC meeting show that some members have discussed the possibility of pausing rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a rate cut in December, but emphasize that this depends on November data.
3. Economic data support:
Inflation: The August PCE inflation rate was 2.7%, above the 2% target; CPI is slightly higher, showing "stubborn" signs. Recent government shutdown (43 days) has led to data delays, but the November report is expected to confirm a slow decline in inflation.
Employment: The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (up from 4.2% last month), with non-farm payrolls adding only 220,000 (far below the expected 790,000), indicating a cooling labor market. This supports the case for rate cuts, but is not enough to outweigh inflation concerns.
GDP: The annualized growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 2.1%, overall robust, but uncertainty in the fourth quarter has increased (affected by immigration slowdown and government shutdown).
Overall, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has shifted from a "high probability event" to a "fifty-fifty chance."
The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the FOMC meeting on December 10-11 has significantly cooled.
The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75%-4.00% by 25 basis points (to 3.50%-3.75%) is about 50%, which is a typical "coin toss" situation. This probability has sharply declined from last week's 62.8% and last month's 96%, reflecting increasing uncertainty in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions.
Main Drivers of the Expectation Change
The Federal Reserve's decisions are highly dependent on its dual mandate: achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target.
Currently, the U.S. economy shows signs of a "soft landing," but inflation pressures and uneven employment data have exacerbated the divergence between hawkish (tightening) and dovish (easing) views. Here are the key influencing factors:
1. Market pricing and futures trends:
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates in December is about 50%, while the likelihood of a larger cut (50bp or more) is close to zero.
The implied median federal funds rate in the futures market for the end of 2025 is 3.775%, only slightly lower than the current level.
This indicates that investor concerns about the Federal Reserve "pausing" interest rate cuts have risen, especially in light of recent stock market volatility and hawkish statements.
2. Statements from Federal Reserve officials:
There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve: hawkish officials (such as Boston Fed President Collins) emphasize inflation risks and tend to favor delaying rate cuts; dovish officials focus on cooling employment.
The minutes from the October FOMC meeting show that some members have discussed the possibility of pausing rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a rate cut in December, but emphasize that this depends on November data.
3. Economic data support:
Inflation: The August PCE inflation rate was 2.7%, above the 2% target; CPI is slightly higher, showing "stubborn" signs. Recent government shutdown (43 days) has led to data delays, but the November report is expected to confirm a slow decline in inflation.
Employment: The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (up from 4.2% last month), with non-farm payrolls adding only 220,000 (far below the expected 790,000), indicating a cooling labor market. This supports the case for rate cuts, but is not enough to outweigh inflation concerns.
GDP: The annualized growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 2.1%, overall robust, but uncertainty in the fourth quarter has increased (affected by immigration slowdown and government shutdown).
Overall, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has shifted from a "high probability event" to a "fifty-fifty chance."
See original
#代币化热潮
Friends, Singapore in 2025 is no longer referred to as 'the most suitable place in Asia for cryptocurrency'; it has directly become the main battlefield for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) globally.
This is not about speculation; it's about bringing Wall Street onto the blockchain.
1️⃣ The three most shocking things
- Today, MAS just officially announced: starting in 2026, they will use wholesale CBDC to settle tokenized MAS bills (which are essentially Singapore government bonds)! The three major banks, DBS, OCBC, and UOB, have secretly completed overnight borrowing tests.
- TOKEN2049 had 25,000 attendees, compared to last year when people were still discussing MEME and hundred-fold coins; this year, 90% of the breakout sessions are talking about 'tokenized government bonds, private credit, cash flow management.' Speculation has receded, institutions are entering the market, and the atmosphere has completely changed.
- Just walking into a café, the table next to you might have people from Fidelity, BlackRock, or Deutsche Bank discussing 'how to turn a $1 billion private equity fund into fractional tokens.'
2️⃣ Why Singapore?
In a word: regulation provides certainty while leaving enough room for innovation.
MAS has included stablecoins, RWA, wholesale CBDC, and anti-money laundering requirements in a clear framework and is personally leading over 40 global giants in Project Guardian.
The result is: compliant institutions are making a fortune, non-compliant players are being pushed out, and the market has directly transformed from a 'jungle' to a 'highway.'
3️⃣ A few real cases that left me astonished
- A local bank showed me their internal dashboard: the tokenized Singapore government bonds have already exceeded $1.5 billion in scale, and 100% of the buybacks and collateral are done on-chain.
- DigiFT (an MAS licensed platform) demonstrated the tokenization of corporate receivables on-site, with T+0 settlement, and interest rates directly 150 basis points lower than traditional factoring.
- I heard that a top Asian family office has already tokenized part of a commercial property into $1 fractions, selling them to retail investors in Europe…
4️⃣ The final truth
In 2021, we shouted DeFi summer, in 2024, we shout AI summer, and in 2025, Singapore directly declares:
'RWA summer has arrived, and this time, it's not retail investors; it's the wealthiest institutions in the world rushing in.'
If you still think blockchain is just about speculation, you really need to come to Singapore and see.
Here, it's no longer about 'testing the waters' for tokenization; it's about building the future financial operating system.
Friends, Singapore in 2025 is no longer referred to as 'the most suitable place in Asia for cryptocurrency'; it has directly become the main battlefield for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) globally.
This is not about speculation; it's about bringing Wall Street onto the blockchain.
1️⃣ The three most shocking things
- Today, MAS just officially announced: starting in 2026, they will use wholesale CBDC to settle tokenized MAS bills (which are essentially Singapore government bonds)! The three major banks, DBS, OCBC, and UOB, have secretly completed overnight borrowing tests.
- TOKEN2049 had 25,000 attendees, compared to last year when people were still discussing MEME and hundred-fold coins; this year, 90% of the breakout sessions are talking about 'tokenized government bonds, private credit, cash flow management.' Speculation has receded, institutions are entering the market, and the atmosphere has completely changed.
- Just walking into a café, the table next to you might have people from Fidelity, BlackRock, or Deutsche Bank discussing 'how to turn a $1 billion private equity fund into fractional tokens.'
2️⃣ Why Singapore?
In a word: regulation provides certainty while leaving enough room for innovation.
MAS has included stablecoins, RWA, wholesale CBDC, and anti-money laundering requirements in a clear framework and is personally leading over 40 global giants in Project Guardian.
The result is: compliant institutions are making a fortune, non-compliant players are being pushed out, and the market has directly transformed from a 'jungle' to a 'highway.'
3️⃣ A few real cases that left me astonished
- A local bank showed me their internal dashboard: the tokenized Singapore government bonds have already exceeded $1.5 billion in scale, and 100% of the buybacks and collateral are done on-chain.
- DigiFT (an MAS licensed platform) demonstrated the tokenization of corporate receivables on-site, with T+0 settlement, and interest rates directly 150 basis points lower than traditional factoring.
- I heard that a top Asian family office has already tokenized part of a commercial property into $1 fractions, selling them to retail investors in Europe…
4️⃣ The final truth
In 2021, we shouted DeFi summer, in 2024, we shout AI summer, and in 2025, Singapore directly declares:
'RWA summer has arrived, and this time, it's not retail investors; it's the wealthiest institutions in the world rushing in.'
If you still think blockchain is just about speculation, you really need to come to Singapore and see.
Here, it's no longer about 'testing the waters' for tokenization; it's about building the future financial operating system.
#USAGovernmentShutdown US Gov Shutdown Hits 39th Day: SEC Furloughs & Solana ETF Delay to 2026 – Expanded View
The US government's ongoing shutdown, now in its 39th day (starting Oct 1, 2025), has frozen federal operations due to congressional budget disputes, furloughing ~900,000 workers including most SEC staff. This "non-essential" halt means the SEC's Corporation Finance division—key for ETF reviews—is largely offline, stalling approvals for 16+ altcoin spot ETFs like Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and HBAR. Analysts now peg 2025 passage odds at just 25% on prediction markets, with SOL ETF decisions slipping into 2026 amid a backlog—potentially delaying institutional inflows by $5-10B.
Market Impact: BTC hovers at $108K-110K with miner sell-offs (1.2K BTC dumped in 24h for power costs), Fear & Greed at 22 (extreme fear), but no panic crash yet—shutdown liquidity injections ($170B/day in T-bills) provide a buffer. Short-term: If resolved by Nov 20 (60% odds), approvals flood in, sparking 8-12% BTC rebound; prolonged drag risks $100K test. Long-term: Forces CLARITY Act (SEC/CFTC split) by mid-2026, clarifying crypto as non-securities and unlocking $50B+ in ETF capital—turning chaos into mainstream adoption.
The US government's ongoing shutdown, now in its 39th day (starting Oct 1, 2025), has frozen federal operations due to congressional budget disputes, furloughing ~900,000 workers including most SEC staff. This "non-essential" halt means the SEC's Corporation Finance division—key for ETF reviews—is largely offline, stalling approvals for 16+ altcoin spot ETFs like Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and HBAR. Analysts now peg 2025 passage odds at just 25% on prediction markets, with SOL ETF decisions slipping into 2026 amid a backlog—potentially delaying institutional inflows by $5-10B.
Market Impact: BTC hovers at $108K-110K with miner sell-offs (1.2K BTC dumped in 24h for power costs), Fear & Greed at 22 (extreme fear), but no panic crash yet—shutdown liquidity injections ($170B/day in T-bills) provide a buffer. Short-term: If resolved by Nov 20 (60% odds), approvals flood in, sparking 8-12% BTC rebound; prolonged drag risks $100K test. Long-term: Forces CLARITY Act (SEC/CFTC split) by mid-2026, clarifying crypto as non-securities and unlocking $50B+ in ETF capital—turning chaos into mainstream adoption.
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