比特路哥
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Where there are disagreements and controversies, there are opportunities to make money. Many people mistakenly believe that 'controversy = risk', but top-tier thinking is: 'controversy = mispricing = opportunity'. In contrast, consensus areas often have no profit #ADA #山寨 #比特币 #Eth #XRP .
Do you think the low positions in 2026's altcoins are truly underestimated? This will determine whether your holdings in 2026 can explode.
In 2023, I accumulated while everyone else was pessimistic about the crypto market, and in 2024 the bull market completely erupted.
Now looking back, of course, apart from daring to act in areas of disagreement and controversy, that's how I was able to achieve the profits I should have gotten. Of course, more so it’s luck, because BTC/ETF was approved in 2024.
XRP's lawsuit lasted 6 years, and the coin price was stagnant for 6 years. Who would have thought that the resolution of the controversy would bring enormous returns?
Friends, don't hesitate to like and follow. I will update more core content about how trading can help you achieve wealth. Don't miss out!
Do you think the low positions in 2026's altcoins are truly underestimated? This will determine whether your holdings in 2026 can explode.
In 2023, I accumulated while everyone else was pessimistic about the crypto market, and in 2024 the bull market completely erupted.
Now looking back, of course, apart from daring to act in areas of disagreement and controversy, that's how I was able to achieve the profits I should have gotten. Of course, more so it’s luck, because BTC/ETF was approved in 2024.
XRP's lawsuit lasted 6 years, and the coin price was stagnant for 6 years. Who would have thought that the resolution of the controversy would bring enormous returns?
Friends, don't hesitate to like and follow. I will update more core content about how trading can help you achieve wealth. Don't miss out!
The current biggest issue in the crypto space is the trust problem. The rapid pace of mainstream altcoin crashes has left very little buffer time for investors, especially for those holding altcoins. The severity of these price swings is hard to recover from in the short term. When everyone is pessimistic about the market's potential to flip from bear to bull, it means investors are unlikely to pump serious cash into crypto, resulting in only short-lived rallies that can't sustain themselves. Institutions cannot go against market trends either. A true reversal from bear to bull will need Bitcoin to find a solid bottom below 50k, with 80% of investors acknowledging that the market has bottomed out and that a slow upward trend can begin. Only this gradual increase can restore confidence, especially when paired with interest rate cuts and narrative shifts to facilitate the transition from bear to bull.
It's not that there are no opportunities in crypto anymore; it's that the space no longer deserves to be the default battleground. In the past, crypto was like a flood—when a hot trend emerged, anyone could make a profit just by being present. Now, opportunities are more fragmented and faster, requiring frontline info and a willingness to chase the most extreme moves.
To put it bluntly, crypto is still profitable, but it's increasingly like a game for skilled players—high odds, explosive potential, and small amounts can still turn a profit, but it’s no longer naturally suited for putting all your main capital in.
Many have shifted to U.S. stocks, not as a betrayal of crypto or out of fear, but because their main capital is now aligned with better profit efficiency.
U.S. stocks are more suitable for large capital, big logic, major trends, and substantial volume, especially in sectors like AI, chips, and core U.S. assets. The liquidity is deep, institutional consensus is strong, and leading stocks can continue to rise, allowing for large positions to be taken and profits to be realized.
Crypto wins on odds, while U.S. stocks win on capacity. Thus, a more mature approach is often: keep the main capital in core U.S. assets, have a flexible position for event trading and mispriced assets, and allocate smaller amounts back into crypto to chase trends and explosive moves. #BTC #ETH
It's not that there are no opportunities in crypto anymore; it's that the space no longer deserves to be the default battleground. In the past, crypto was like a flood—when a hot trend emerged, anyone could make a profit just by being present. Now, opportunities are more fragmented and faster, requiring frontline info and a willingness to chase the most extreme moves.
To put it bluntly, crypto is still profitable, but it's increasingly like a game for skilled players—high odds, explosive potential, and small amounts can still turn a profit, but it’s no longer naturally suited for putting all your main capital in.
Many have shifted to U.S. stocks, not as a betrayal of crypto or out of fear, but because their main capital is now aligned with better profit efficiency.
U.S. stocks are more suitable for large capital, big logic, major trends, and substantial volume, especially in sectors like AI, chips, and core U.S. assets. The liquidity is deep, institutional consensus is strong, and leading stocks can continue to rise, allowing for large positions to be taken and profits to be realized.
Crypto wins on odds, while U.S. stocks win on capacity. Thus, a more mature approach is often: keep the main capital in core U.S. assets, have a flexible position for event trading and mispriced assets, and allocate smaller amounts back into crypto to chase trends and explosive moves. #BTC #ETH
Crypto is facing a dual liquidity drain from the global stock markets and the World Cup, with another failed attempt to breach 83K, signaling a big waterfall is coming.
Today, A-shares hit a new high, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking 4200 points—last time it hit that mark was a decade ago.
Today's volume reached 3.5 trillion, nearly 500 billion more than last Friday, indicating that outside capital is already entering the market.
With the US, Japan, South Korea, and China all hitting new highs, there's naturally going to be a liquidity drain from the crypto market.
Looking at the short-term trend, BTC's second attempt to break the 83K barrier has failed, and both the 1-hour and 4-hour candlesticks are showing a door-level pattern, indicating a lack of upward momentum and a higher likelihood of a downward correction. #BTC #ETH
Today, A-shares hit a new high, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking 4200 points—last time it hit that mark was a decade ago.
Today's volume reached 3.5 trillion, nearly 500 billion more than last Friday, indicating that outside capital is already entering the market.
With the US, Japan, South Korea, and China all hitting new highs, there's naturally going to be a liquidity drain from the crypto market.
Looking at the short-term trend, BTC's second attempt to break the 83K barrier has failed, and both the 1-hour and 4-hour candlesticks are showing a door-level pattern, indicating a lack of upward momentum and a higher likelihood of a downward correction. #BTC #ETH
Haven't talked about Bitcoin's weekly chart in a while; it's nearing the top. If the weekly completes a top formation, we might see that happen by late May.
If the weekly hits the top, we're likely in for a new wave of downturns. I don't think the monthly trend will change just like that, but if the weekly drops to the bottom, then the monthly will probably follow suit. When both the monthly and weekly charts are at the bottom, that's typically the bottom of a bear market.
Even though some influencers are starting to sound bullish, I trust the system and choose to set aside my personal biases. After all, the system's win rate is way higher than my own judgment. #BTC <a>...</a> #ETH
If the weekly hits the top, we're likely in for a new wave of downturns. I don't think the monthly trend will change just like that, but if the weekly drops to the bottom, then the monthly will probably follow suit. When both the monthly and weekly charts are at the bottom, that's typically the bottom of a bear market.
Even though some influencers are starting to sound bullish, I trust the system and choose to set aside my personal biases. After all, the system's win rate is way higher than my own judgment. #BTC <a>...</a> #ETH
Legendary crypto trader Eugene posted on his personal channel saying
that currently, most tokens only need a small marginal buy-in to pump prices, so the market is still in a 'low gear' state.
Here, I’d like to add that most liquidity is still in the global stock market. Even though most altcoins can pump with a few buys, it’s tough to maintain those gains in a market lacking liquidity. It’s likely that we’ll see a pump to the highs before a major dump when the bags are distributed.
I still advise against chasing high on altcoins. #btc #DOGE
that currently, most tokens only need a small marginal buy-in to pump prices, so the market is still in a 'low gear' state.
Here, I’d like to add that most liquidity is still in the global stock market. Even though most altcoins can pump with a few buys, it’s tough to maintain those gains in a market lacking liquidity. It’s likely that we’ll see a pump to the highs before a major dump when the bags are distributed.
I still advise against chasing high on altcoins. #btc #DOGE
We've been seeing a USDT premium lately, with major coins trading sideways while all sorts of altcoins are flying off the charts.
The reason behind this is the strong surge in Bitcoin, which has left a lot of retail traders in a state of extreme 'fear of missing out' (FOMO), pushing them to dive in, afraid to miss the action.
However, the big players (institutional funds) are currently facing significant real-world resistance—they're hesitant to push BTC aggressively above the 80k mark.
If they force a breakout past the 83,000 dollar level, they'll face a massive wave of trapped sellers, leading to substantial capital burn.
This puts us in a bit of a bind: if the market remains stagnant and lifeless, anxious retail traders will likely choose to cash out when they get bored, causing liquidity to dry up.
So, what's the move? The big players have opted for a sly and low-cost strategy: using minimal funds to selectively pump those tiny market cap altcoins.
The explosive rise of altcoins is essentially a 'carrot' dangled in front of retail traders. It successfully creates a strong illusion that the bull market is still robust and there's money to be made everywhere, thus stabilizing retail sentiment and enticing funds to rotate within the ecosystem, while the big players quietly position themselves in the shadows.
The reason behind this is the strong surge in Bitcoin, which has left a lot of retail traders in a state of extreme 'fear of missing out' (FOMO), pushing them to dive in, afraid to miss the action.
However, the big players (institutional funds) are currently facing significant real-world resistance—they're hesitant to push BTC aggressively above the 80k mark.
If they force a breakout past the 83,000 dollar level, they'll face a massive wave of trapped sellers, leading to substantial capital burn.
This puts us in a bit of a bind: if the market remains stagnant and lifeless, anxious retail traders will likely choose to cash out when they get bored, causing liquidity to dry up.
So, what's the move? The big players have opted for a sly and low-cost strategy: using minimal funds to selectively pump those tiny market cap altcoins.
The explosive rise of altcoins is essentially a 'carrot' dangled in front of retail traders. It successfully creates a strong illusion that the bull market is still robust and there's money to be made everywhere, thus stabilizing retail sentiment and enticing funds to rotate within the ecosystem, while the big players quietly position themselves in the shadows.
Bitcoin's rebound in April was boosted by the strength of U.S. stocks, but it hasn't broken through the critical resistance level of 80K.
The overall trend for May to June is undoubtedly bearish, no doubt about it. The main reason Bitcoin has been consolidating is that it's currently propped up by strong U.S. stocks, but breaking through 80K is very challenging, and the bulls are clearly showing signs of fatigue.
If U.S. stocks start to pull back, coupled with the liquidity drain from risk markets during the June World Cup, the crypto space could drop rapidly. The short-term exit point is around 77K, which is the last and best sell-off level. Once leverage in the market starts to lose patience with the shorts and shifts to the longs, the market will kick off a rapid decline; this transition between bears and bulls will happen very quickly.
Summary of major asset gains in April 2026 (based on public market data):
S&P 500: up over 10% (record performance within the month)
Nasdaq: up over 15% (tech stocks leading the charge)
Dow: up about 7%
Bitcoin: climbed from around $66K at the beginning of the month to about $76.4K by the end, an increase of approximately 16% #btc #ETH
The overall trend for May to June is undoubtedly bearish, no doubt about it. The main reason Bitcoin has been consolidating is that it's currently propped up by strong U.S. stocks, but breaking through 80K is very challenging, and the bulls are clearly showing signs of fatigue.
If U.S. stocks start to pull back, coupled with the liquidity drain from risk markets during the June World Cup, the crypto space could drop rapidly. The short-term exit point is around 77K, which is the last and best sell-off level. Once leverage in the market starts to lose patience with the shorts and shifts to the longs, the market will kick off a rapid decline; this transition between bears and bulls will happen very quickly.
Summary of major asset gains in April 2026 (based on public market data):
S&P 500: up over 10% (record performance within the month)
Nasdaq: up over 15% (tech stocks leading the charge)
Dow: up about 7%
Bitcoin: climbed from around $66K at the beginning of the month to about $76.4K by the end, an increase of approximately 16% #btc #ETH
Bitcoin has already rebounded past 77500 today, which opens up the possibility for a one-hour level rebound. If it plays out, keep an eye on the 78000~78600 range to see if we get a second sell signal before another drop.
Current market conditions are quite tough for the bears, but the more it grinds, the more caution is needed. Once no one dares to short, a significant drop could sneak up on us.
Short to mid-term trend direction
Four-hour cycle main direction: hasn't broken 75500 yet, we need to wait for it to drop below that to fully confirm the end of the rebound.
One-hour cycle direction: short-term looking for a one-hour level rebound, just pay attention to the strength.
BTC short-term
Due to the fast changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market at the moment of release. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest changes in the market; this is merely for reference.
One-hour level
1) The short-term expectation is for a one-hour level rebound, normally not breaking 79485, providing a second sell signal before continuing to drop. There's a low probability of making a new high.
2) Personally, I believe that without an epic positive catalyst, it's hard to rebound higher; the 79000~81000 range remains a heavy pressure zone. So, the value of shorting is high, patience is key.
3) Watch closely at 75000; if this level breaks again, the downside potential opens up.
Fifteen-minute level
1) Normally, the short-term should see a fifteen-minute level pullback, focusing on 77000 or below.
2) As long as we don't break below 76300, the expectation is for a third fifteen-minute level rebound to occur.
3) If we break below 76300 again, we need to be cautious of a direct one-hour level downward extension.
Ethereum
1) Ethereum is currently in a complex consolidation; short-term, see if it can achieve a one-hour level rebound to the 2360~2400 range.
2) As long as the fifteen-minute level pullback doesn't break below 2288, the expectation is for another fifteen-minute level rebound to occur.
3) If we break below 2288 again, watch for the continued possibility of a drop #btc #ETH .
Current market conditions are quite tough for the bears, but the more it grinds, the more caution is needed. Once no one dares to short, a significant drop could sneak up on us.
Short to mid-term trend direction
Four-hour cycle main direction: hasn't broken 75500 yet, we need to wait for it to drop below that to fully confirm the end of the rebound.
One-hour cycle direction: short-term looking for a one-hour level rebound, just pay attention to the strength.
BTC short-term
Due to the fast changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market at the moment of release. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest changes in the market; this is merely for reference.
One-hour level
1) The short-term expectation is for a one-hour level rebound, normally not breaking 79485, providing a second sell signal before continuing to drop. There's a low probability of making a new high.
2) Personally, I believe that without an epic positive catalyst, it's hard to rebound higher; the 79000~81000 range remains a heavy pressure zone. So, the value of shorting is high, patience is key.
3) Watch closely at 75000; if this level breaks again, the downside potential opens up.
Fifteen-minute level
1) Normally, the short-term should see a fifteen-minute level pullback, focusing on 77000 or below.
2) As long as we don't break below 76300, the expectation is for a third fifteen-minute level rebound to occur.
3) If we break below 76300 again, we need to be cautious of a direct one-hour level downward extension.
Ethereum
1) Ethereum is currently in a complex consolidation; short-term, see if it can achieve a one-hour level rebound to the 2360~2400 range.
2) As long as the fifteen-minute level pullback doesn't break below 2288, the expectation is for another fifteen-minute level rebound to occur.
3) If we break below 2288 again, watch for the continued possibility of a drop #btc #ETH .
One day you'll understand, being born a grassroots trader is a given, and you can only pick flowers among the thorns. The crypto space is full of miracles, but you also have to bear its chaos; they are twins. #BTC跌破$77K #btc #ETH
When's the bear bottom and the bull start? After four bull runs
Bro Lu tells you
When the crowd stops discussing bottom fishing, and people are steering clear of talking about investments, avoiding BTC altogether, that's when you know we're at the bottom.
Clearly, we haven't hit that point yet,
Get your mindset right, and wait until you can't be bothered to open the app to check the charts, or when the KOLs are making a ruckus, that's when you should gear up to go all in #BTC #ETH
Bro Lu tells you
When the crowd stops discussing bottom fishing, and people are steering clear of talking about investments, avoiding BTC altogether, that's when you know we're at the bottom.
Clearly, we haven't hit that point yet,
Get your mindset right, and wait until you can't be bothered to open the app to check the charts, or when the KOLs are making a ruckus, that's when you should gear up to go all in #BTC #ETH
#BTC may have already peaked. The upward channel that lasted for a month has broken, and there’s little momentum for sustained new highs in the short term; perhaps this marks the beginning of a downtrend.
The three-month bear market rally seems to have wrapped up; this bull trap has been convincingly real.
The three-month bear market rally seems to have wrapped up; this bull trap has been convincingly real.
The mid-term distribution has also started. #BTC #ETH
Bulls have won, new bulls are joining, targeting the bears' defense zone. For the mid-term, we're looking at 76835-77643, with a short-term range of 77065-77744. If we break through, we closed above 77744, and set up a small defense wall, confirming the upward trend has kicked off.
However, as mentioned in previous articles, the upward pressure is still heavy.
The newly generated mid-term distribution order wall is at 77800. If we break through this wall, we can see 78164 and 78200. After breaking 78200, the price could reach 79300. If 79300 holds, we might push towards 79700 and 80100 to clear the dense short stop losses above. But the long-term distribution trend remains, and 79300 may struggle to hold, possibly even failing to reach previous highs, which aligns with our earlier conclusion: long on the short term, short on the long term.
Let's analyze why prices are pushing high for distribution right now. It's because of tonight's Federal Reserve meeting. Institutions are choosing to control the price within the distribution trend at this time. Once the price is within the distribution trend range, it’s an acceptable distribution price for the institutions, giving them complete control. Regardless of any negative or positive news, they can exit whenever they want, which is a very clever tactic!
Bulls have won, new bulls are joining, targeting the bears' defense zone. For the mid-term, we're looking at 76835-77643, with a short-term range of 77065-77744. If we break through, we closed above 77744, and set up a small defense wall, confirming the upward trend has kicked off.
However, as mentioned in previous articles, the upward pressure is still heavy.
The newly generated mid-term distribution order wall is at 77800. If we break through this wall, we can see 78164 and 78200. After breaking 78200, the price could reach 79300. If 79300 holds, we might push towards 79700 and 80100 to clear the dense short stop losses above. But the long-term distribution trend remains, and 79300 may struggle to hold, possibly even failing to reach previous highs, which aligns with our earlier conclusion: long on the short term, short on the long term.
Let's analyze why prices are pushing high for distribution right now. It's because of tonight's Federal Reserve meeting. Institutions are choosing to control the price within the distribution trend at this time. Once the price is within the distribution trend range, it’s an acceptable distribution price for the institutions, giving them complete control. Regardless of any negative or positive news, they can exit whenever they want, which is a very clever tactic!
Bitcoin short interest has surged to 19%, the highest level since the beginning of 2023. This setup also appeared two weeks before the last peak—whether we can see a move depends on the speed of unwinding over the next 72 hours.
This can be interpreted as an extreme funding rate, but more importantly, it's about the spot leverage costs in the lending market, which is more complex than just looking at contract rates. #btc
This can be interpreted as an extreme funding rate, but more importantly, it's about the spot leverage costs in the lending market, which is more complex than just looking at contract rates. #btc
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