量子跃迁crypto

筑底还是下跌中继？
重磅！降息了，比特币却崩了！一个隐藏30年的“核按钮”被突然按下？

兄弟们，剧本是不是拿反了？美联储降息明明该是狂欢的号角，怎么比特币反而应声暴跌，直接滑向8.5万深渊，连带着以太坊也失守3000大关？ 这诡异的“利好落地变利空”背后，根本不是简单的获利回吐，而是三股足以撼动全球资本格局的暗流，正在猛烈撞击加密世界。
首先，最致命的“隐形炸弹”来自东方——日本央行30年来的首次实质性加息。这不是普通的政策调整，这是对全球套利交易的一次“核打击”。过去多年，无数机构借入近乎零成本的日元，疯狂涌入比特币等风险资产。如今资金成本骤升，他们被迫“含泪”平仓，引发了第一轮抛售潮。历史不会简单重复，但会押韵：日元流动性收紧，往往是加密市场剧烈调整的前奏。
其次，美联储玩了一手“给颗糖，再吓你一跳”。降息虽然落地，但对未来路径的暧昧表述，让市场对流动性的持续宽松产生了怀疑。加上即将公布的关键经济数据，任何风吹草动都可能让“宽松预期”瞬间转向。这种不确定性，比明确的鹰派更让人心慌。
最后，链上正在上演一场“大逃杀”。中国新疆地区矿场的大规模停机，导致算力暴跌，使矿工为维持运营而抛售比特币；同时，早期持有者（OG）和ETF资金也在同步流出，形成了多方合力的抛压。这一切，共同导演了这场“降息日的暴跌”。

Bitcoin starts the largest scale turnover in history. Old BTC money: I'm rich enough, no matter if it's the highest point or not, it's still the best year in history. Selling is safer, 300 kids can't spend it all.

November CPI is significantly lower than expected, with core CPI for the two months ending in November only +0.2%, core year-on-year about +2.6%, and overall year-on-year about +2.7%. In terms of interest rates, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve may start its first rate cut of 25 basis points in September 2026, with additional cuts in January and March 2027. I feel that easing will come, but not urgently.

While macro expectations are turning dovish, on-chain funds are also entering the market: Bitcoin whales have accumulated approximately $23.3 billion in BTC over the past 30 days, setting the largest single-month buying intensity in 13 years. It looks more like a repositioning during times of macro uncertainty. A major turnover month for new and old forces.

Tell a joke, I spent 30 points on VOOL, and now I can still sell it for around 20u

The current market is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts release liquidity, benefiting risk assets;
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on December 19, which dampens the market.
Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are caught in the middle, being pulled back and forth.
On one side is the narrative of interest rate cuts,
on the other side is the possibility that yen arbitrage may be forced to close positions.

Historically, after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, BTC has experienced a 20%–30% pullback, and with current leverage not low, the market is naturally tense.

This year's market has almost no turning point

All attention is on next year

Next year, although there will only be 2 rate cuts

The market often awakens in despair

As long as the Federal Reserve starts printing money in large quantities

Bitcoin will break 200,000 USD, and altcoins will soar.

Trump's pick for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve: Christopher Waller. 👀 But this Waller is no ordinary person! He has publicly supported Bitcoin as 'digital gold' and as a 'store of value'! Now, is the Federal Reserve going to become part of the 'crypto circle'?

Morgan's precious metals division has moved to Singapore, possibly having received news that the government will regulate precious metal trading.

The retreat of American tech stocks,
combined with interest rate cuts,
this money has to go somewhere,
so, is it good for Bitcoin? A super bull market is coming.

Continue to invest in BNB! Daily amounts vary between 10u and 50u

Dogecoin recently dropped by 5%, but it remains steady around $0.13. The overall market is not doing well, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, tech stocks falling, and Bitcoin longs being liquidated, which has led to a weak sentiment. However, Dogecoin is still holding at a key support level, and if it holds, there is a chance to rebound to $0.20. In the short term, the focus is on $0.13: if it holds, there is still an opportunity to move upwards; if it breaks, it may continue to pull back to $0.125. RSI is neutral, MACD is bearish, and caution is still needed in the short term.

Bitcoin is dropping again, and the interest rate cut expectations have already been priced in! The main upward trend line and resonance resistance level at around 94000 are too difficult to break through. It is estimated that without Trump and Hassett personally making statements, it will be hard to break through, especially with Japan's interest rate hike looming. I hope the elder brother can advise the younger brother well, so as not to ruin the overall situation! The only good phenomenon is that currently, the daily line still shows higher lows at 80-83-87 three bottoms! Head and shoulders bottom structure, it must not break. If it breaks, we will have to continue searching for a bottom, which is too difficult. Hold on, Bitcoin! #BTC

After Hassert's positive interest rate cut remarks:

1⃣ US stocks: US stocks surged but then fell back, tech stocks reacted moderately to this news. The core reason is that they have risen too much and need to rest or adjust, indicating a need for consolidation.

2⃣ Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin also surged and then fell back, reacting stronger than US stocks, but the increase was moderate. The reason is that Bitcoin is at the tail end of a 4-year cycle and events like "MSTR exclusion index" have not fully materialized, indicating a need for consolidation.

3⃣ Precious metals: Gold's reaction is significantly weaker than that of silver and platinum. I have published multiple analyses indicating that gold entered a consolidation phase on October 20 (Note: Gold's consolidation will definitely not lead to a significant drop). Silver and platinum will take over the lead.

《Interest Rate Cuts ≠ Bull Market? Experts: Bitcoin Will Face Its Real 'Testing Point'》
1️⃣ Bitcoin Steadily Stands Above $90,000
The market enters a 'Policy Observation Period'📊
Investor sentiment is relatively cautious

2️⃣ December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Becomes Key🎯
Expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut (0.25%)
But the tone and policy path are more important than the rate cut itself

3️⃣ Two Major Scenario Scripts📉📈
If rate cut + Emphasis on Inflation Pressure → Hawkish
→ Real interest rates remain high → Compresses risk asset valuations (including BTC)
If rate cut + Clear Easing Path → Dovish
→ Benefits stabilizing market confidence and prices

4️⃣ The market has already reflected future easing expectations
The market has priced in 4 rate cuts next year
Short-term dollar fluctuations, resistance at 99.2

5️⃣ The crypto market is not solely bullish⚠️
Still affected by the slowing U.S. economy and rising expectations for Japanese bond rate hikes
→ Yen arbitrage funds returning → Causes temporary capital withdrawal

6️⃣ Short-term volatility, long-term structure remains bullish📌
Spot ETF popularization
Institutional capital participation increases
Stablecoin and RWA application expansion
→ Bitcoin is gradually moving towards the mainstream financial system

After Hasset's positive comments on interest rate cuts:

1⃣ U.S. Stocks: U.S. stocks surged but then fell back; tech stocks reacted moderately to this news, mainly because they have risen too much and need a rest or correction, showing a need for consolidation.

2⃣ Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin also surged and then fell back, reacting stronger than U.S. stocks, but the gains are moderate. The reason is that Bitcoin is at the end of a 4-year cycle, and events like 'MSTR exclusion index' have not fully materialized, indicating a need for consolidation.

3⃣ Precious Metals: Gold's reaction is significantly weaker than that of silver and platinum. I have posted multiple analyses indicating that gold entered a consolidation phase on October 20 (note: gold's consolidation will not lead to a significant drop). Silver and platinum will take over the baton and lead the rally.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year

The first rate cut was on September 17, 2025, after which Bitcoin fell from 117900 to 108620, a decrease of 7.8%.

The second rate cut was on October 29, 2025, after which Bitcoin fell from 113640 to 80600, a decrease of 28.6%.

On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision indicates that the probability of a rate cut is higher. Considering the previous two rate cuts, the market outlook after the rate cuts is not optimistic. Everyone needs to be more cautious at that time!#btc

Currently, if you still see those shouting about altcoin seasons, see one, block one, harmful people, everyone's money didn't come from the wind, be a person, damn it, it's a bear market, still waiting for altcoins to pump, what a joke, still talking about stopping tapering, what rate cuts, soon there will be more quantitative easing, what's the use, it's all a trap by capital, if you don't believe in evil, just wait for it, there will be nothing left; at this stage, the market is no longer something retail investors can play in, consider dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin.

From the current data, if Bitcoin breaks 100,000 USD, there will be about 9 billion in shorts being liquidated. Note the strength of the interest rate cuts we are continuously monitoring. #Bitcoin #BITCOIN #BTC #九歌 #eth #cryptocurrency

At the end of the year and in the first quarter of next year, there will be a wave of market activity, estimated at 150,000. Bitcoin is no longer driven by narratives and halving production to push prices, but rather by institutional holdings and ETF injections. Therefore, Bitcoin is now more closely related to U.S. policies.
Interest rate cuts and the introduction of QE are inevitable trends, and a large amount of printed money will flow into the market. If it can recover above 100,000, it will be a bullish arrangement; if it cannot recover, there will still be a major rebound between 70,000 and 80,000.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and Japan's interest rate hike are crucial, but this time the trouble is that the market's expectations for these two events have changed, so the overall uncertainty is greater than before. Now it's just a matter of whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 100,000 in December, which feels very difficult.

【#Trading Moment】: The expectation of the yuan breaking 7 is rising, and Bitcoin needs to break 96,000 to confirm a trend reversal

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to 87%, while the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds has first exceeded 30 trillion dollars. The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates this month, which may reach a 28-year high. The yuan is driven by multiple favorable factors, and the short-term expectation of breaking 7 is rising, but whether it can remain stable still has uncertainties.

Domestic GPU company Moore Threads saw its stock price soar 502% on its first day of listing on the STAR Market, reflecting the capital market's high expectations for the domestic AI chip sector. Industry giant NVIDIA is facing competitive pressure and is consolidating its AI ecosystem layout through technological upgrades and strategic investments.

Bitcoin's price encountered resistance at 93,500 dollars, and analysts believe it needs to break 96,000 dollars to confirm a trend reversal, otherwise it may decline. At the same time, there are strong bullish voices in the market, with some predicting that the peak of this Bitcoin bull market could reach between 150,000 and 200,000 dollars. Ethereum has broken through the key level of 3,200 dollars, with a generally optimistic outlook for the future.

Capital flow and outlook: Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows. The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data and several industry events, such as OKX delisting part of its spot trading and the launch of the Stable mainnet.