RagnarL23

Bulls keep posting $150k $BTC charts
Bears screaming about BTC at $40k
But who is right? I researched all the data

Here is current macro, cycle state and what will be next🧵👇🏻
Before we get started , Follow me and scroll my Binance timeline to see accuracy of my signals
Now let's come to the main point
1/➫ The recent drawdown doesn’t resemble a cycle top at all

❍ BTC pushed into the mid-$120K in Oct, stalled, and then slid ~35% without hype, blowoff candles, or mania

❍ Nearly $1T in value evaporated

❍ As ETH and mid-caps slipped in step with no real speculative frenzy
2➫ The drop is mostly about demand disappearing

❍ Stablecoin creation slowed, ETF inflows faded, and derivatives traders stepped back

❍ Funding turned soft, open interest unwound

❍ With markets expecting a December cut, most buyers
prefer waiting rather than chasing risk
3~Liquidity conditions feel brittle

❍ Even medium-sized market orders move price several percent because resting bids are scarce

❍ Orderbook snapshots show depth vanishing during active periods

❍ It’s a market running on fumes

4~Derivatives tell a similar story

❍ Volatility shifted higher, skew tilted toward protection, and traders hedged dips instead of stacking longs

❍ Futures interest fell despite small relief rallies, suggesting nobody wants to put on size

❍ Without leveraged conviction, trends fail to build momentum

5/➫ On-chain data reflects hesitation rather than fear

❍ CDD jumped as older coins moved, but long-held BTC still sits with patient wallets

❍ aSOPR hovering near 1 signals neither strong profit-taking nor mass stress

❍ Most selling came from mid-term holders, creating a muted, indecisive flow
6/➫ Institutional behavior stayed cold through November

- BTC ETFs bled billions
- ETH ETFs saw similar outflows
- OTC desks reported minimal activity

❍ Some capital rotated into newer products, but overall appetite remains thin

❍ Large allocators clearly aren’t in a hurry
7/➫ Macro should eventually help, but timing is the issue

❍ Markets see an ~85% chance of a December cut and global easing is underway

❍ Still, stronger-than-expected labor data and sticky inflation force the Fed to stay cautious, delaying a clean green light for risk assets8/➫ This looks more like controlled selling than panic episode

❍ There’s no cascade or liquidation wave – just steady distribution while liquidity is thin

❍ That slow bleed is more damaging than fast capitulation – it drains confidence without offering clear reversal signals
10/➫ The broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile

❍ Funding stays weak, exchange balances rise, sentiment sits in extreme fear, and buyers aren’t stepping in with size

❍ Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, and tests lower levels

Follow me And I will discuss everything in my upcoming live sessions on Binance and YouTub
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