GDJ-Jinn

U.S. Treasury yields have all fallen back, and expectations for further easing from the Federal Reserve are rising.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has finally shown a comprehensive decline, with the 5-year yield falling by nearly 1%, marking a rare extent in recent times. This intense volatility clearly reflects the market's optimistic expectations for further easing policies from the Federal Reserve—investors are betting on more room for interest rate cuts to cope with potential signals of economic slowdown.

It is expected that tonight's non-farm payroll data will be weak, which will further strengthen the logic of the Federal Reserve turning to a more aggressive easing stance. If the job market shows signs of weakness, it will provide the Federal Reserve with the "ammunition" for policy adjustments, thereby boosting short-term sentiment for risk assets. In the short term, the U.S. stock market may welcome a wave of technical rebounds to digest recent pullback pressure.

However, in the medium to long term, a more notable "barometer" to watch is the yen exchange rate: if the yen strengthens against the dollar forming a clear upward trend (for example, breaking through key resistance levels), this will amplify global liquidity tightening concerns, dominating cross-asset allocation in the next 1-3 months. Investors are advised to closely monitor the yen's movements as a leading indicator of risk appetite reversal.

#美联储降息 #美债收益率 #非农数据

Typo, 91000 is pressure, this should be 89000

As long as it does not drop below 91000/3100 for an hour, the bullish momentum is still there,
Bitcoin CME opened with pressure, but the gap was filled in just two hours.
Ethereum has no gap.
I dare not place orders in the group for now, waiting for the Asian session to unfold, and will start around two in the afternoon; patience is also a part of trading.

BTC: H4 channel pullback confirmation, liquidity raid on previous lows, fib0.618 pullback confirmation,
After breaking 90500, we consider a pullback to chase long positions, with hopes of reaching 93500-94000.
ETH: H4 trendline + H4 ob pullback, with hopes of reaching 3250.

Weekly opening price BTC88100/ETH3060, has not broken key levels.
However, the daily line opens above the support level, with a risk of breaking.
This week's news includes Tuesday's non-farm payrolls, Thursday's CPI, and Friday's interest rate hike in Japan. Pay attention to market fluctuations.

If this short-term trend were an electrocardiogram, it could basically issue a critical condition notice for the market.

BTC's recent price fluctuations have narrowed significantly to oscillate in the 89k–94k range,
the price has been sluggish but is finally close to touching the downtrend line, and the Bollinger Bands are also clearly narrowing.

The market is approaching a turning point
We need to be on our toes next week!

A brief review of tonight's FOMC

1. Market liquidity has increased, and the Federal Reserve will start purchasing $40 billion in government bonds by the end of the year.
2. Rate cut expectations; the latest dot plot indicates one rate cut next year, which is somewhat unexpected. However, based on Chairman Powell's attitude, a rate cut could happen as early as January, especially since he will be stepping down.
3. Chairman Powell's attitude tonight was relatively hawkish but not as strong as anticipated, somewhat evasive.
4. The market's attitude towards tonight's FOMC is evident, with both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market seeing a significant surge to resistance levels.

In the afternoon, the group positioned for a long trade, making a profit of 2000 points on BTC. During the live stream, we also shorted ETH at 3400 and exited at 3370, and after the meeting, we entered again at 3410.

Overall strategy is to continue shorting before going long! #ETH

I looked at the funding data and position data. There is some selling, but no significant outflow. There's no need to rush into shorting here; we shouldn't get trapped by continuously shorting during this rebound. At the very least, wait for a double top and divergence before shorting, or wait until the FOMC meeting ends tonight to decide based on the market reaction.
In simpler terms, the main capital is still present, so there's no need to rush into shorting. Let's finish this week's rebound before deciding the next step.

The weekly plan for Monday has been completed, the position has been emptied now, the next plan is to go long during the European session and wait for FOMC to take profit.

FHE precise entry, 15% drop profit taken

$USTC Long
Entry: Around 0.0095
Target: 0.0105-0.0112-0.012
Stop: 0.0089
———————————————
$FHE Short
Entry: 0.55
Target: 0.045-0.040-0.035-0.025
Stop: 0.066
———————————————
All orders that were not entered will be automatically void at tp1,
For example, yesterday's 9w big cake, I won't accept it again, I will announce when to re-enter,
Personal opinion, for reference only.
Daily short orders, high-risk imitation, control position.

Bold Guess: It will keep pulling until interest rates are cut, then rebound until the end of the Christmas holiday, before starting the next round. The low point is uncertain, but it will definitely reach 98k.

A new week, let’s briefly discuss the plan:
Through the opening price, we will first speculate on a short position, Bitcoin/Ethereum near 89800/3050 for a light entry, with a weekly target of H4 high point 93800/3350.

Strategy Summary: #ETH

Position Strategy
None, already hit break-even.

Evening Pending Order Strategy:

ETH Long Pending Order Normal Position
Entry around 3900 (Yesterday's strategy, will update after entry)
Profit 4150-4200
Loss 3780

BTC Short Pending Order Light Position
Entry: 114350 (Trendline resistance)
Loss: 115000
Profit: 111000-110000

BTC Short Pending Order Normal Position
Entry: 115250 (nPOC + Bounce 0.618)
Loss: 1000 points
Profit: 111000-110000

BTC Pending Order High Position
Entry: 111000-109520 (Expanded level buy point, can increase position)
Loss: 1000 points
Profit: 120,000

Altcoin strategy not updated in strategy summary, too many beginners might not grasp it,
The MEME and KERNEL called in the afternoon are still flying.

Personal opinion, for reference only:
To be honest, at the peak in early August, I could only see 4T (total crypto market cap), 120k (BTC), 4440 (ETH); I personally can't imagine going any higher.

Coincidentally, the timing of the CPI target achievement is a bit peculiar, but I feel that it's temporarily the season to exit. The demand zone below is unlikely to be touched before interest rate cuts.

So before touching the low, my personal view is a pullback, and the strategies shared in the group will slightly emphasize short positions, hoping it won't affect everyone. #ETH #BTC