Satan0618

Japan's interest rate hike countdown in one hour

December 19, 2025, 11:00 AM
The market generally expects that on Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda
will raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
to 0.75%, challenging the highest level in nearly thirty years.

Official statement:
Japan's long-term reluctance to raise interest rates is primarily due to
having experienced the 'lost two decades', with the economy trapped in a deflationary cycle.
In an environment of falling prices and weak demand,
the central bank can only attempt to stimulate investment and consumption
through extremely low or even negative interest rates,
aiming to avoid further economic contraction.

The side effects of the long-term ultra-loose policy are becoming increasingly apparent.
The excessive depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of imported raw materials and energy,
compressing profit margins for small and medium-sized enterprises and eroding households' real purchasing power.
When low interest rates no longer provide significant stimulating effects
but continue to amplify exchange rate and price distortions,
the policy logic must be readjusted.

In addition to the market's general expectation of an interest rate hike next Friday (19th),
there may be three more adjustments afterwards.
If realized, Japan will end a decade-long ultra-loose cycle,
and the yen's transformation from a 'cheap financing tool'
to a 'high-yield asset' will also enter a critical stage,
which is a signal that the global 'cheap money era' may come to an end.
This will inevitably impact the flow of funds in the risk market.

$PAXG $XAU

Jason Chen:

From ETF to the next level policy benefit of strategic reserves
is the CLARITY Act.
David, the White House official for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency affairs,
just stated: It is expected to be reviewed in the Senate next month.
In July this year, the bill was passed by a large majority in the House of Representatives.
Currently, it seems that there should be no major issues with the Senate vote.
If it continues to pass, the final presidential signature will make it effective.

The most important content of the CLARITY Act is to directly classify BTC, ETH, etc.
as commodities rather than securities from an asset perspective,
no longer regulated by the SEC but handed over to the CFTC.
Many people ask if the SEC is already very lenient now,
this bill may not be very useful, but that's not the case.
In simple terms, the current asset classification of gold and oil
is that they are commodities regulated by the CFTC,
while BTC and ETH have always been in a gray area
and regulated by the SEC. If the CLARITY Act passes,
the nature of purchasing BTC and ETH will be equivalent to purchasing gold and oil.

Regulatory restrictions have become obstacles for many conservative funds,
such as local pension funds, social security funds,
and corporate annuities to purchase, making it difficult for these funds to flow in.
If BTC and ETH are officially assigned to CFTC regulation,
it will release a lot of potential purchasing capital.

In addition, the legitimacy of many companies hoarding BTC,
ETH will also remove obstacles.
For example, it is very normal for a certain company to hoard commodities like gold, oil, cotton, and wheat,
no one would say anything about it, right?
In the future, BTC and ETH will be the same.

Continuously Relative Low Point DCA
Do not hold worthless assets

This looks negative no matter how you see it
What's going on today
$LUNC $LUNA

Global asset giant Vanguard has reversed its position
and will allow Bitcoin ETF trading

With global assets exceeding $11 trillion, Vanguard
has decided to allow trading of ETFs and mutual funds that track Bitcoin
and other specific cryptocurrencies on its brokerage platform.
This decision reverses Vanguard's long-held
view on digital assets.
The company previously believed that cryptocurrencies
were too volatile and speculative,
and unsuitable for serious investment portfolios.

According to reports, Vanguard will begin allowing
trading of ETFs and mutual funds tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP,
and Solana starting Tuesday (2nd).
Vanguard's shift comes after the spot Bitcoin ETF
makes its debut in January 2024
and accumulates billions in assets,
reflecting the ongoing pressure from retail and institutional demand.
Crypto-linked ETFs are currently one of the fastest-growing sectors
in the history of the U.S. fund industry.

Andrew Kadjeski, head of Vanguard's brokerage and investment division,
indicated that the reason for this decision is
that these cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds
have weathered market volatility,
performed as expected, and maintained liquidity.
He also noted that the administrative processes for managing
such funds have matured,
and investor preferences continue to evolve.

Vanguard stated that they will support most
cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds that meet
regulatory standards,
similar to how they handle other non-core asset
classes like gold.
However, the company will continue to prohibit trading
in funds related to meme coins
or those not supported by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Although Vanguard has opened trading permissions,
the company currently has no plans to launch its own
cryptocurrency products.
Kadjeski emphasized that Vanguard serves millions of
investors with varying needs and risk preferences.
Their goal is to provide a brokerage trading platform
that allows customers to invest in products of their own choosing.

Fusaka Upgrade

Scheduled for December 3 (today), the upgrade will double the Blob
with the aim of enhancing scalability and efficiency.
The Fusaka upgrade is expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency,
thus solidifying Ethereum's leading position in the decentralized finance space.

Fusaka is a significant upgrade primarily aimed at the backend,
intended to enhance Ethereum's scalability, efficiency, and node resilience
without the need for modifications to smart contracts.
It includes 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs)
that optimize core protocol functions related to data availability, fuel efficiency, and network robustness.
One of the key innovations included is the PeerDAS technology,
which aims to improve data availability and Layer 2 scalability
by reducing node storage and bandwidth requirements by about 50%.

After the mainnet Fusaka upgrade,
the Blob data capacity will be increased in two phases.

It is expected to enhance Layer 2 transaction throughput
and reduce associated costs by optimizing transaction processing
and validator costs.
Fusaka also aims to support institutional adoption
by addressing scalability and security gaps.
Improved regulatory clarity will enhance confidence in the network.

A comprehensive testing phase is planned,
including multiple development networks and public test networks,
and security audits to ensure network stability before mainnet activation.
Validators and node operators will need to update their client software
to remain in sync with the network.

Notably, some proposals initially considered,
such as EIP-7907 (which doubles the contract code size limit)
and the EVM Object Format (EOF) upgrade, have been excluded
to simplify the upgrade and focus on key features like PeerDAS.

Fusaka represents a critical step in Ethereum's evolution,
focusing on backend improvements that enhance scalability and efficiency.
It lays the foundation for greater adoption of Ethereum in decentralized applications, DeFi,
and institutional use cases,
while maintaining backward compatibility and network stability.

However, today there is not much upward price momentum,
and we can continue to monitor future developments.
—————-Attached is the research article from September———————-

Gray Scale: Bitcoin May Reach New Highs in 2026
Four-Year Cycle Theory in Doubt

PANews December 2 news, according to Grayscale's latest report
Bitcoin's 32% pullback since early October aligns with historical averages
This marks the ninth significant pullback in the current bull market
Grayscale believes that Bitcoin may not enter
A deep cyclical decline, and expects its price to aim for a new high next year
While questioning the applicability of the four-year cycle theory
The report points out: This bull market has not seen
Parabolic rises as in past cycles
The market structure has also changed
Funds mainly flow in through Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)
And Digital Asset Trusts (DATs), rather than retail trades

As Bitcoin has gradually moved out of the small-scale antics of cryptocurrency enthusiasts
And into Wall Street and the global financial system
The outdated cyclical bull and bear theory is starting to fail
Replaced by a new global market cycle
Don't just shout that bears have come, or bulls have arrived
What you should focus on are two indicators
The amount of Bitcoin in BlackRock's wallet
And the amount of Bitcoin in MicroStrategy's wallet
Your little 25 cents cannot shake the market at all

Buy the dip means 'buying the dip'
This is an investment strategy that refers to purchasing assets
(such as stocks or cryptocurrencies) when their prices decline
because it is expected that the prices will eventually rebound

Strategy meaning: The basis of this strategy is
believing that short-term price declines are temporary
and that the currently lower prices offer
a great 'discount' to acquire assets
You think you can't afford Bitcoin at 120000
You hesitate to buy Bitcoin over 80000
Perhaps the only option you have is a cold wallet
that fell from the sky.

Less than a week since the speech on 11/21
Current October settlement (hash rate down 10-20%)
Similar trends compared to 2018 and 2021
Cost $114K > Price $84K, indicating a bottom
Historically, within 1-3 months after such events
The probability of a rebound is 80%
During the 1-3 months before the surge
It may fluctuate sideways for a while
But today it has already risen to 92000
Are the miners unable to hold on any longer?

This does not constitute any investment advice
Purely reasoning future trends based on past data
Please make rational judgments DYOR

To understand market prices
we must first return to economic theory

First, the mechanism issue of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin is generated through the process of mining.
Mining incurs costs (electricity⚡️).
Currently, there is a significant gap between electricity costs and prices.
What is the motivation behind this kind of price reduction promotion?
Is it oversupply or vicious competition among peers?
When buying products below cost, should we
panic or rejoice?

Second, has history shown similar situations?
The answer is yes, but what happened later?
When market liquidity is squeezed
and supply cannot meet demand, what happens to prices?
This does not constitute any investment advice.
Please DYOR.

Attached is the chat record with AI 💬

Breakpoint 2025: A Summary of the Solana Annual Flagship Conference

Breakpoint 2025 is the annual flagship event of the Solana ecosystem
hosted by the Solana Foundation.
This is the annual gathering of the Solana community
bringing together global developers, founders, investment firms, and builders
to explore Web3 innovations, blockchain technology upgrades
and the trends shaping the next era of the internet.
The event emphasizes 'real-world applications' rather than empty talk
focusing on the revenue generation of the Solana ecosystem
and expected returns that will showcase multiple product launches,
partnerships, and live demonstrations, driving ecosystem growth.

Event Date and Location
• Date: December 11 to 13, 2025 (3 days)
• Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE
The main venue is Etihad Arena (Yas Island)
• Surrounding Events:
Held concurrently with Abu Dhabi Finance Week,
Bitcoin MENA, and Formula 1,
making Abu Dhabi a hotspot for finance and technology
attracting top talent from around the world.
This is the first time Solana has moved Breakpoint to the Middle East,
symbolizing the ecosystem's expansion into the global capital markets.

December may be the tipping point for the Solana ecosystem
This does not constitute investment advice, please do your own research (DYOR) and stay informed
$SOL

#加密市场回调

Global risk assets collectively plummeted:

In the last two days (November 3-4, 2025)
The U.S. stock market, including the S&P 500, fell about 2-3%
The Nasdaq dropped over 4%
CTAs increased their long positions in the Nasdaq 100 in October
Reaching a historical high
(COT data: +85% net long)
On November 3-4, the Nasdaq index broke key support (20-day moving average)
Triggering forced liquidation of long positions + short selling

Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin and Ethereum
Respectively evaporated 5-8% of their market value
USDT issuance surged by 500 million
→ Institutions are accumulating stablecoins off-exchange to buy the dip
Preparing for "panic low buying"

When risk assets crash, funds usually do not disappear
But rather shift from high-risk assets
To low-risk or hedging targets

Dear travelers～
Please hold onto the handrails, stand firm on the steps, and do not get shaken off.

2025 AI Industry
Unleashes an unprecedented funding frenzy
NVIDIA, OpenAI,
Oracle, and AMD
have formed a funding closed loop totaling over 1 trillion dollars
This cycle involves hardware supply, cloud services, and equity trading
Driving stock prices soaring and market enthusiasm

But it also raises doubts similar to the internet bubble of 2000:
Is this the starting point of prosperity in the AI era
or just an illusion of a "same ten-dollar coin"
circulating among a few companies?

Structure of the funding cycle
This funding cycle began with NVIDIA:
On September 22, 2025, NVIDIA announced an investment of 100 billion dollars
for OpenAI to build a 10 gigawatt (GW) AI data center
supplying millions of GPUs
This investment will be phased in starting from 2026
Injecting 1 billion dollars for every 1 GW deployed
Pushing NVIDIA's stock price up by 4%, with a market value increase of 170 billion dollars
OpenAI's valuation reached 500 billion dollars

Then OpenAI in July 2025
signed a 300 billion dollar cloud computing contract with Oracle
as part of the Stargate project
(Total investment of 500 billion dollars, in collaboration with SoftBank)
Driving Oracle's stock price up by 26%
Co-founder Larry Ellison became the second richest person in the world

Oracle used the contract funds from OpenAI
to order 40 billion dollars worth of NVIDIA chips
and plans to deploy 50,000
AMD MI450 Instinct GPUs
(estimated amount in the billions of dollars)
At the same time, OpenAI in October 2025
signed a 90 billion dollar contract with AMD to purchase 6 GW AI chips
and obtained the option to purchase 10% equity in AMD
This move led to a surge in AMD's stock price by 23%, with a market value increase of 63 billion dollars
NVIDIA's stock price fell slightly by 2%, indicating intensified competition
Ultimately, the funding flow from NVIDIA and AMD back to OpenAI formed a closed loop

Risks behind the prosperity
On the surface, this cycle has created significant economic activity
But its essence is similar to "supplier financing"
NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, OpenAI pays Oracle
Oracle then buys NVIDIA and AMD chips
The funds seem magnified, but may actually be multiple flows of "the same money"
Goldman Sachs analysts call this the "sustainable construction phase" of AI
Predicting it will create 8 trillion dollars in economic value
But also warning of risks similar to the internet bubble
$BTC

Panic spreads, is it a signal to increase positions or a trend to escape
My feet are numb, there's no choice but to increase positions like a leeks

BWENEWS news, Binance PAXGUSDT perpetual contract
just rose by 16% due to the impact of large orders (possibly liquidated by a whale)
Currently, Binance PAXG is trading at a price 1.5% higher than the global gold price

4700 this is too disgusting $PAXG

#美国加征关税

Yesterday's review of the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency crash

The U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market experienced severe fluctuations, with a broad decline.
This drop was primarily triggered by a post from U.S. President Donald Trump
on Truth Social.
He threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese products
and banned the export of U.S. software to critical Chinese industries.
This is seen as a signal of the restart of the U.S.-China trade war "version 2.0."
The decline was compounded by the U.S. government shutdown (Day 10)
and the delay in the release of official economic data.
Inflation expectations fell to 4.6%, but concerns about employment and prices intensified.
Market panic spread rapidly, leading to a global sell-off of risk assets.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had warned in advance
that the probability of a market crash was as high as 30% (far above the market pricing of 10%).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 878.82 points, a decrease of 1.90%
closing at 45,479.60 points.
The S&P 500 dropped 182.60 points, a decrease of 2.71%
closing at 6,552.51 points (the largest single-day drop since April).
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 820.20 points, a decrease of 3.56%
closing at 22,204.43 points.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) plummeted 6.3%, with tech stocks leading the decline.

Tech and AI-related stocks plummeted:
Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4.95%, AMD fell 7.78%,
Tesla (TSLA) also saw a significant drop.
Chinese-related supply chain stocks (such as Apple, Intel) were also hit.
In contrast, rare earth-related stocks (such as MP Materials)
surged due to China's rare earth export controls, becoming one of the few bright spots.

Market sentiment:
The VIX, Wall Street's fear index, surged 32%, reaching a new high since June.
The total market value evaporated by about $1.65 trillion, ending months of calm trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from around $122,000 to a low of $102,000,
a drop of over 10% (some reports indicated it fell to $107,000 at one point).
It has currently stabilized around $110,000.

Ethereum (ETH) fell 16%, dropping from $4,332 to below $3,700.
Other altcoins fared worse: XRP, SOL, DOGE fell 15%-30%.
TON, Chainlink, etc. plummeted 20%-40%.
The total market value of the cryptocurrency market shrank from $4.25 trillion to $4.05 trillion,
evaporating nearly $200 billion.

Liquidation scale:
In 24 hours, over 1.51 million users were liquidated, totaling $13.512 billion.
Among them, long positions faced liquidations of $12.145 billion, and short positions $1.367 billion.
This set a historical record, with Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions being the most affected,
similar to the flash crashes of "312" or "519."

Well, brothers, I've increased my position.