MrEasyIce

December 18th 'Transaction' Record #54
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Christmas is coming soon

Is the Christmas market you were expecting here? $BTC

Newbie Playing Contracts: Don’t Let 'Greed' Cloud 'Rationality'; Maintaining Risk Control is the Key. Newcomers entering the contract trading market are easily led by the myth of making big profits with small investments, either enviously eyeing short-term doubling cases or constantly thinking that 'holding on a bit longer will yield more profits,' being swept away by greed to continuously increase leverage and expand positions. However, as a trader with 8 years of experience in the contract market, I must awaken this misunderstanding: 95% of newbies whose minds are clouded by greed will fall into the obsession of 'wanting to earn more'—either becoming blindly confident after making a few small profits, ignoring market risk signals, and going all in; or hesitating to take profits after making gains, watching the market pull back while fantasizing about reaching new highs, ultimately not only giving back profits but also losing a significant portion of their principal.

Contracts have never been about 'making huge profits through greed' but rather 'making risk control through rationality.' Throughout my 8 years of trading, I have never been blinded by short-term profits; instead, each operation anchors on the core of risk control: during the novice stage, decisively using a simulated account or very small capital to test the waters, keeping the leverage ratio at the minimum, first mastering the skill of 'protecting the principal' before talking about profits; before each position opening, I will set stop-loss and take-profit lines in advance, taking profits when reaching the target and decisively exiting when hitting the loss limit, never hesitating; even when encountering a one-sided surge in the market, I will not temporarily increase leverage to follow the trend, always adhering to my trading rules. Gradually, I have come to understand: those who can survive long-term in the contract market are never the 'lucky ones who catch a big trend' but rather those with ironclad risk control discipline and the ability to restrain greedy desires—if newcomers are led by greed, even if they accidentally make big money, it is only a matter of time before they lose everything in a moment of uncontrolled greed.

For newcomers wanting to establish a foothold in the contract market, do not let greed consume rationality anymore. First, recognize the essence that 'leverage is a double-edged sword,' learn to set positions and leverage according to your own risk tolerance, and develop the trading habit of 'taking profits and not dragging stop losses to the end,' so as to protect the principal amid market fluctuations, rather than letting greed become the 'trigger for liquidation.' Ultimately, maintaining risk control is maintaining the lifeline of trading; respecting the rules is the only way to walk more steadily. $ETH

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What impact does Japan's🇯🇵 interest rate hike have on Bitcoin?
#BTC

Since 2024, every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, Bitcoin has experienced significant declines ranging from 20% to 31%. For example, the interest rate hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025 led to Bitcoin dropping approximately 23%, 26%, and 31%, respectively. This correlation stems from the reversal of yen carry trade: investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in risk assets like Bitcoin. An interest rate hike increases financing costs and triggers forced liquidations, exacerbating liquidity pressure.

Currently, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, with a probability exceeding 80%. If the hike occurs as anticipated, Bitcoin may face short-term downward pressure. Technical analysis suggests that the area around $70,000 may become a key support level, and if broken, further pullback targets may point towards the $67,700 region. It is important to note that some of the decline may have already been reflected in the price, as Bitcoin has already dropped before the interest rate hike.

Technical weakness: Bitcoin has recently shown a 'bear flag pattern', with dense resistance levels (such as $91,000-$94,000). If it breaks below the support range, it may accelerate the decline.

If the interest rate hike meets expectations and the central bank releases dovish signals, there may be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' rebound opportunity, although the probability is low.

Overall, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is likely to suppress Bitcoin's performance in the short term, but the long-term trend still depends on macro fundamentals and the evolution of market sentiment.

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