波段信
技术分析，形态为王
专注于比特币BTC行情分析
公众号：波段信 推特：@Axin888btc
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2026 BTC will definitely be a bull market, there will definitely be an altcoin season
(2026 BTC will definitely be a bull market and will welcome an altcoin season)
The altcoin market is driven by the business cycle, so when the business cycle is at a low point, we will not see an altcoin season.
Everyone is saying, I can't believe we've been deprived of the altcoin season, it will never come again.
There are too many tokens, we can no longer have a good market, you can hear this complaint all day long.
It's not like that, it's essentially a macroeconomic issue.
Because when corporate profits rise and the business cycle strengthens, you will have more profits to invest, and you will channel these funds into higher-risk assets, which is actually a very basic rule.
The altcoin market is driven by the business cycle, so when the business cycle is at a low point, we will not see an altcoin season.
Everyone is saying, I can't believe we've been deprived of the altcoin season, it will never come again.
There are too many tokens, we can no longer have a good market, you can hear this complaint all day long.
It's not like that, it's essentially a macroeconomic issue.
Because when corporate profits rise and the business cycle strengthens, you will have more profits to invest, and you will channel these funds into higher-risk assets, which is actually a very basic rule.
See original
The fluctuations cannot be handled, what to do with the back and forth losses?
There is a method, place conditional orders, make breakthroughs
Trigger 90,000, execute at market price, set take profit at 96,000 to 98,000
Set stop loss as you see fit
#BTC
There is a method, place conditional orders, make breakthroughs
Trigger 90,000, execute at market price, set take profit at 96,000 to 98,000
Set stop loss as you see fit
#BTC
See original
As expected, the unfortunate words hit the mark
The main force is so cunning
90000 did not break through
87000, however, broke down
So the idea mentioned in the video last night is correct
No trading during fluctuations is always the safest #BTC
The main force is so cunning
90000 did not break through
87000, however, broke down
So the idea mentioned in the video last night is correct
No trading during fluctuations is always the safest #BTC
CPI is favorable, so is BTC having a significant rebound, is it really that simple? What risks should be noted, and what is the best strategy to operate? #BTC #BTC走势分析
See original
Just looking at a bare K closing line and judging a drop is very one-sided
Bare K represents points
Formations represent aspects
Liquidity represents power
Time is a key factor
Time determines space
Only when the time comes is there a high probability of a market change
Pin bars are often used to deceive people into going long or short
Divergence in indicators is also deceiving for going long or short
Divergence rising is the norm
Indicators are useless
Severe lagging
If you remove all indicators and only look at clean K lines and trading volume to judge
That is the first step to advancement
Learning indicators and using indicators is easy, it belongs to addition
Making you not use indicators, only looking at pure K lines and trading volume, is very difficult, because this belongs to subtraction
Because you have subconsciously become accustomed to analyzing with indicators
Once you stop using indicators for analysis, it feels the same as having your hands and feet cut off
You become almost at a loss on how to proceed
If that's the case, it means you are still in the foundational stage
The levels of technical analysis are divided as follows: indicator faction, bare K faction, formation faction (this includes trend lines and wave theory), liquidity faction (essentially order flow)... etc., this is all I know
From beginning to end, it represents the process of upgrading from basic to advanced technology
Bare K represents points
Formations represent aspects
Liquidity represents power
Time is a key factor
Time determines space
Only when the time comes is there a high probability of a market change
Pin bars are often used to deceive people into going long or short
Divergence in indicators is also deceiving for going long or short
Divergence rising is the norm
Indicators are useless
Severe lagging
If you remove all indicators and only look at clean K lines and trading volume to judge
That is the first step to advancement
Learning indicators and using indicators is easy, it belongs to addition
Making you not use indicators, only looking at pure K lines and trading volume, is very difficult, because this belongs to subtraction
Because you have subconsciously become accustomed to analyzing with indicators
Once you stop using indicators for analysis, it feels the same as having your hands and feet cut off
You become almost at a loss on how to proceed
If that's the case, it means you are still in the foundational stage
The levels of technical analysis are divided as follows: indicator faction, bare K faction, formation faction (this includes trend lines and wave theory), liquidity faction (essentially order flow)... etc., this is all I know
From beginning to end, it represents the process of upgrading from basic to advanced technology
See original
In the end, there are only two types of markets
Unilateral or oscillating
Currently, it is oscillating
Oscillating should be traded with the oscillation system
Unilateral should be traded with the unilateral system
The oscillation is preparing to turn into a unilateral trend... this is the most interesting time!
It is also the time of maximum profit
It is also the hardest time to judge
The time of greatest divergence
News is dead
The main force is just a tool borrowed for operation
That's all
Anyone who takes news too seriously will surely lose
There is no absolute bullish or bearish
It all depends on how the big players interpret it
Price trends, rising or falling, are interpreted as
Bullish can sell off during the decline
Bearish can induce short tests, then rebound
News and macro factors are mainly used to judge long-term trends
Short-term significance is not very great
Unilateral or oscillating
Currently, it is oscillating
Oscillating should be traded with the oscillation system
Unilateral should be traded with the unilateral system
The oscillation is preparing to turn into a unilateral trend... this is the most interesting time!
It is also the time of maximum profit
It is also the hardest time to judge
The time of greatest divergence
News is dead
The main force is just a tool borrowed for operation
That's all
Anyone who takes news too seriously will surely lose
There is no absolute bullish or bearish
It all depends on how the big players interpret it
Price trends, rising or falling, are interpreted as
Bullish can sell off during the decline
Bearish can induce short tests, then rebound
News and macro factors are mainly used to judge long-term trends
Short-term significance is not very great
See original
I'm talking nonsense
Actually, there's no value in the communication of trends among BTC players
A goes up, B goes down, C says it's sideways, you're just messing around,
either trust yourself
or choose to trust someone
Essentially, everyone's technical systems are different
Trading systems are different
There's no value in communication
Only negative value
No positive effect #BTC
Actually, there's no value in the communication of trends among BTC players
A goes up, B goes down, C says it's sideways, you're just messing around,
either trust yourself
or choose to trust someone
Essentially, everyone's technical systems are different
Trading systems are different
There's no value in communication
Only negative value
No positive effect #BTC
See original
After such a big upheaval last night, I can’t even see BTC rebounding to ten thousand dollars now... Anyway, a few thousand dollars can drop back in three minutes.
Please, the Americans are celebrating the New Year soon, and then we will celebrate it too, let’s be human. #BTC
Please, the Americans are celebrating the New Year soon, and then we will celebrate it too, let’s be human. #BTC
See original
CPI is favorable, BTC rises in response
(CPI is favorable, BTC rises in response)
The core CPI of 2.6% is the lowest level since 2021, which is quite a surprise, considering that previously it was thought that a figure in the low 2's, like 2.9%, would be good enough. Given this data, the market probably doesn't even care about the inaccuracies due to the government shutdown. Personally, I speculate that such a low inflation figure may be related to the relatively low prices during the Thanksgiving sales and the decline in crude oil prices.
In any case, the cliff-like drop in inflation has strongly countered the narrative of a second inflation from hawkish figures, allowing the Federal Reserve to confidently enter a cycle of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion.
The core CPI of 2.6% is the lowest level since 2021, which is quite a surprise, considering that previously it was thought that a figure in the low 2's, like 2.9%, would be good enough. Given this data, the market probably doesn't even care about the inaccuracies due to the government shutdown. Personally, I speculate that such a low inflation figure may be related to the relatively low prices during the Thanksgiving sales and the decline in crude oil prices.
In any case, the cliff-like drop in inflation has strongly countered the narrative of a second inflation from hawkish figures, allowing the Federal Reserve to confidently enter a cycle of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion.
See original
The sufficient and necessary condition for BTC to rebound significantly in the future: it actually depends on whether the resistance level of 90,000 can be effectively broken through!
90,000 is the midpoint of the oscillation box
It is the dividing line for the strength of bulls and bears
Once 90,000 is stabilized, Ah Xin will definitely be bullish #BTC
90,000 is the midpoint of the oscillation box
It is the dividing line for the strength of bulls and bears
Once 90,000 is stabilized, Ah Xin will definitely be bullish #BTC
The heavy blow is here, don't short!
Unless it breaks the 85200 support
90,000 is the key resistance
Once it breaks, look for 97000-98000
Unless there are unexpected events, the main players are focusing on breaking levels to accumulate
Axin believes the main strategy should be to buy on pullbacks #BTC
Unless it breaks the 85200 support
90,000 is the key resistance
Once it breaks, look for 97000-98000
Unless there are unexpected events, the main players are focusing on breaking levels to accumulate
Axin believes the main strategy should be to buy on pullbacks #BTC
See original
The first CPI data after the China-US trade truce is indeed surprising.
This is really too low... Inflation is completely nonexistent. #cpi
This is really too low... Inflation is completely nonexistent. #cpi
See original
The heavy blow is here, don't short!
Unless it breaks the 85200 support
90,000 is the key resistance
Once it breaks, look for 97000-98000
Unless there are unexpected events, the main players are focusing on breaking levels to accumulate
Axin believes the main strategy should be to buy on pullbacks #BTC
Unless it breaks the 85200 support
90,000 is the key resistance
Once it breaks, look for 97000-98000
Unless there are unexpected events, the main players are focusing on breaking levels to accumulate
Axin believes the main strategy should be to buy on pullbacks #BTC
See original
🚨
Citigroup: Expects the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates in 2026
Citibank expects interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in January and March 2026, followed by another cut of 25 basis points in September 2026.
Citigroup: Expects the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates in 2026
Citibank expects interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in January and March 2026, followed by another cut of 25 basis points in September 2026.
See original
Will BTC experience a deep bear market at this stage
(Will BTC experience a deep bear market at this stage)
A bear market will inevitably lead to an economic recession, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the government can afford such consequences, especially before the midterm elections, as the economic and political costs of a significant correction are so high that the recent risk-return profile of the US stock market remains favorable.
Will the US stock market and BTC experience a deep bear market at this stage? If it happens, will the US government bail out?
Regarding the first point, there are two necessary conditions for a deep bear market to occur in the foreseeable future:
1. Either the economic system encounters problems, such as a collapse in the bond market leading to consecutive defaults, or there are major issues with inflation. Next year, not only will it not cool down, but it may accelerate, preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates and requiring rate hikes to curb it. So, can these two points occur? Frankly, debt defaults are possible, but I do not believe they will transmit to the entire system, as the fundamentals and cash flow of companies, aside from a few, remain healthy. Regarding inflation, positively speaking, tariffs have been implemented for nearly a year, and the transmission of prices is basically complete, with no additional momentum for inflation to continue rising. Negatively speaking, rate cuts, liquidity releases, a dovish Federal Reserve chairman, and resilient consumption could keep inflation sticky, making it difficult to reduce significantly. Therefore, the current general view is that while a slight decline in the market is not ruled out, I believe the probability of a deep bear market similar to the internet bubble is not high.
A bear market will inevitably lead to an economic recession, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the government can afford such consequences, especially before the midterm elections, as the economic and political costs of a significant correction are so high that the recent risk-return profile of the US stock market remains favorable.
Will the US stock market and BTC experience a deep bear market at this stage? If it happens, will the US government bail out?
Regarding the first point, there are two necessary conditions for a deep bear market to occur in the foreseeable future:
1. Either the economic system encounters problems, such as a collapse in the bond market leading to consecutive defaults, or there are major issues with inflation. Next year, not only will it not cool down, but it may accelerate, preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates and requiring rate hikes to curb it. So, can these two points occur? Frankly, debt defaults are possible, but I do not believe they will transmit to the entire system, as the fundamentals and cash flow of companies, aside from a few, remain healthy. Regarding inflation, positively speaking, tariffs have been implemented for nearly a year, and the transmission of prices is basically complete, with no additional momentum for inflation to continue rising. Negatively speaking, rate cuts, liquidity releases, a dovish Federal Reserve chairman, and resilient consumption could keep inflation sticky, making it difficult to reduce significantly. Therefore, the current general view is that while a slight decline in the market is not ruled out, I believe the probability of a deep bear market similar to the internet bubble is not high.
See original
This may be the greatest charm of the contract
🚨
Breaking news: The price of Bitcoin surged by $3,300 in just 30 minutes, liquidating short positions worth $106 million.
But then it sold off by $3,400, liquidating long positions worth $52 million in the next 45 minutes.
The level of manipulation in the cryptocurrency space is unbelievable. #BTC
🚨
Breaking news: The price of Bitcoin surged by $3,300 in just 30 minutes, liquidating short positions worth $106 million.
But then it sold off by $3,400, liquidating long positions worth $52 million in the next 45 minutes.
The level of manipulation in the cryptocurrency space is unbelievable. #BTC
See original
I day
Break the rebound?
It's okay to make mistakes!
Dare to cut losses, be decisive, and you can survive! #BTC
Break the rebound?
It's okay to make mistakes!
Dare to cut losses, be decisive, and you can survive! #BTC
This is fucking awesome
Both bulls and bears are getting killed
Once 87800 breaks, we can only short in the short term
There's a way
A bunch of carvings #BTC
Both bulls and bears are getting killed
Once 87800 breaks, we can only short in the short term
There's a way
A bunch of carvings #BTC
See original
This is fucking awesome
Both bulls and bears are getting killed
Once 87800 breaks, we can only short in the short term
There's a way
A bunch of carvings #BTC
Both bulls and bears are getting killed
Once 87800 breaks, we can only short in the short term
There's a way
A bunch of carvings #BTC
See original
It was hasty, I spoke too early
I have to say that time is the most important variable
The time hasn't come, and the direction just can't break out
BTC is rising a bit fiercely
The resistance at 87800 has been broken
Is this going to be a big rebound?
As long as it doesn't drop below 87000, we can only continue to be bullish
The target remains 94000, 96000-98000
There's no way, the left shoulder neckline has been broken
We can only go with the flow! #BTC
I have to say that time is the most important variable
The time hasn't come, and the direction just can't break out
BTC is rising a bit fiercely
The resistance at 87800 has been broken
Is this going to be a big rebound?
As long as it doesn't drop below 87000, we can only continue to be bullish
The target remains 94000, 96000-98000
There's no way, the left shoulder neckline has been broken
We can only go with the flow! #BTC
If nothing unexpected happens, BTC is still a temptation for more
Short-term wait for a pullback
Unless it breaks 87800, it may continue to rise
Otherwise, it will fall below 86000
Revisiting the support below #BTC #crypto
Short-term wait for a pullback
Unless it breaks 87800, it may continue to rise
Otherwise, it will fall below 86000
Revisiting the support below #BTC #crypto
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