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Open Trade
Frequent Trader
1.4 Years
合约交易
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Review | A Trading Reflection Inspired by 'Market Wizards'
Re-reading (Market Wizards) at night, I saw a sentence that I had overlooked before:
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
See original
Making a large number of trades when the odds of winning seem very low is not about making money from trading, but rather burning money for self-entertainment.
$BTC $ETH
$BTC $ETH
Review | The core reasons for the recent decline in contract win rates
Recently, the win rate of contract trading has noticeably decreased. After reviewing, I believe the key issue is not the failure of the system, but rather that the market environment has changed while my trading approach has not been adjusted accordingly.
The current market is gradually turning bearish, liquidity is decreasing, and the direct result is:
Significantly more false breakouts
Support/resistance levels frequently failing
But I still continue to use the breakout entry method, frequently entering in a low liquidity environment, which results in being repeatedly 'slapped in the face' by the market, with stop losses triggered and losses incurred back and forth.
In a phase where direction is unclear and liquidity is insufficient, the market is very likely to experience both long and short liquidations, and price chasing strategies are inherently at a disadvantage.
Based on this, the adjustments I made are:
From chasing breakouts → Waiting for pullback confirmation before entering
Using higher confirmation costs to exchange for lower false breakout risks
Strictly limiting the number of openings and the maximum loss ratio per day/period
The purpose of doing this is very simple:
To trade less and make fewer mistakes in a poor market, surviving is more important than making money.
$ETH #加密市场观察
Recently, the win rate of contract trading has noticeably decreased. After reviewing, I believe the key issue is not the failure of the system, but rather that the market environment has changed while my trading approach has not been adjusted accordingly.
The current market is gradually turning bearish, liquidity is decreasing, and the direct result is:
Significantly more false breakouts
Support/resistance levels frequently failing
But I still continue to use the breakout entry method, frequently entering in a low liquidity environment, which results in being repeatedly 'slapped in the face' by the market, with stop losses triggered and losses incurred back and forth.
In a phase where direction is unclear and liquidity is insufficient, the market is very likely to experience both long and short liquidations, and price chasing strategies are inherently at a disadvantage.
Based on this, the adjustments I made are:
From chasing breakouts → Waiting for pullback confirmation before entering
Using higher confirmation costs to exchange for lower false breakout risks
Strictly limiting the number of openings and the maximum loss ratio per day/period
The purpose of doing this is very simple:
To trade less and make fewer mistakes in a poor market, surviving is more important than making money.
$ETH #加密市场观察
See original
The most important trading principle is that the key to winning in trading lies in first-class outstanding defense, not first-class outstanding offense.
$BTC $ETH
$BTC $ETH
Review | A Trading Reflection Inspired by 'Market Wizards'
Re-reading (Market Wizards) at night, I saw a sentence that I had overlooked before:
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
See original
Most of the losses are often not because you lack skills or knowledge.
What truly makes the difference is your attitude and belief towards losses and profits.
$ETH $BTC
What truly makes the difference is your attitude and belief towards losses and profits.
$ETH $BTC
Review | A Trading Reflection Inspired by 'Market Wizards'
Re-reading (Market Wizards) at night, I saw a sentence that I had overlooked before:
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
'The secret to trading lies in deciding whether to trade short-term or long-term based on the holding time you can endure. The vast majority of trend followers choose to trade medium-term. The best trading strategy should try to avoid swings and inconsistent compromises.'
This sentence 'Avoiding the swings and the inconsistent compromises' is almost a precise hit on my current trading system.
My question: I have turned my trading system into a 'Frankenstein'.
My trading system was actually very simple and easy to execute at the beginning.
See original
Review | The core reasons for the recent decline in contract win rates
Recently, the win rate of contract trading has noticeably decreased. After reviewing, I believe the key issue is not the failure of the system, but rather that the market environment has changed while my trading approach has not been adjusted accordingly.
The current market is gradually turning bearish, liquidity is decreasing, and the direct result is:
Significantly more false breakouts
Support/resistance levels frequently failing
But I still continue to use the breakout entry method, frequently entering in a low liquidity environment, which results in being repeatedly 'slapped in the face' by the market, with stop losses triggered and losses incurred back and forth.
In a phase where direction is unclear and liquidity is insufficient, the market is very likely to experience both long and short liquidations, and price chasing strategies are inherently at a disadvantage.
Based on this, the adjustments I made are:
From chasing breakouts → Waiting for pullback confirmation before entering
Using higher confirmation costs to exchange for lower false breakout risks
Strictly limiting the number of openings and the maximum loss ratio per day/period
The purpose of doing this is very simple:
To trade less and make fewer mistakes in a poor market, surviving is more important than making money.
$ETH #加密市场观察
Recently, the win rate of contract trading has noticeably decreased. After reviewing, I believe the key issue is not the failure of the system, but rather that the market environment has changed while my trading approach has not been adjusted accordingly.
The current market is gradually turning bearish, liquidity is decreasing, and the direct result is:
Significantly more false breakouts
Support/resistance levels frequently failing
But I still continue to use the breakout entry method, frequently entering in a low liquidity environment, which results in being repeatedly 'slapped in the face' by the market, with stop losses triggered and losses incurred back and forth.
In a phase where direction is unclear and liquidity is insufficient, the market is very likely to experience both long and short liquidations, and price chasing strategies are inherently at a disadvantage.
Based on this, the adjustments I made are:
From chasing breakouts → Waiting for pullback confirmation before entering
Using higher confirmation costs to exchange for lower false breakout risks
Strictly limiting the number of openings and the maximum loss ratio per day/period
The purpose of doing this is very simple:
To trade less and make fewer mistakes in a poor market, surviving is more important than making money.
$ETH #加密市场观察
See original
BitMine releases the latest holdings update:
Currently, the company's total holdings of cryptocurrency + high-risk investments are approximately $13.2 billion, specifically including:
ETH: 3,864,951 coins (valued at $3,139 per coin)
BTC: 192 coins
Cash reserves: $1 billion
#ETH走势分析 $ETH
Currently, the company's total holdings of cryptocurrency + high-risk investments are approximately $13.2 billion, specifically including:
ETH: 3,864,951 coins (valued at $3,139 per coin)
BTC: 192 coins
Cash reserves: $1 billion
#ETH走势分析 $ETH
See original
Despite the long-term structural view, MON remains relatively weak, but it is not suitable to blindly short in the short term.
Currently, the contract's open interest is still at a high level, and the short positions are relatively high. Under this structure, the probability of a 'short squeeze' happening is not low.
Additionally, one realistic factor needs to be considered:
As MONAD is Coinbase's first public offering project, there is a certain expectation of 'market support,' and it is not ruled out that there may be a floor support at key price levels to avoid a rapid drop below the public sale range, which could impact market sentiment and the project's image.
In summary:
The long-term bearish view remains unchanged, but the short-term structure is complex, and pursuing shorts requires extra caution.
#MON
Currently, the contract's open interest is still at a high level, and the short positions are relatively high. Under this structure, the probability of a 'short squeeze' happening is not low.
Additionally, one realistic factor needs to be considered:
As MONAD is Coinbase's first public offering project, there is a certain expectation of 'market support,' and it is not ruled out that there may be a floor support at key price levels to avoid a rapid drop below the public sale range, which could impact market sentiment and the project's image.
In summary:
The long-term bearish view remains unchanged, but the short-term structure is complex, and pursuing shorts requires extra caution.
#MON
Monad In-Depth Observation: Monad's token economics are quietly hollowing out the holders
Let's take a quick look at the DefiLlama data snapshot:
TVL (Total Value Locked): $187.31m
Stablecoin Market Cap: $461.39m
Chain Fees (24h transaction fees): $5,774
Chain Revenue (24h on-chain income): $2,803
App Fees (24h application transaction fees): $73,254
App Revenue (24h application income): $8,005
DEX Spot Trading Volume (24h): $63.02m
Perps Contract Trading Volume (24h): $77.51m
Net Inflow (24h): $886,080
Total Financing: $513m
Market Cap (Circulating Mcap): $280.71m
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): $2.592b
Looking solely at TVL and trading volume, Monad is not a zombie chain; there are indeed people using and trading on the chain. The issue lies in the two dimensions of 'profitability and token structure', which can be a bit scary when unpacked.
TVL (Total Value Locked): $187.31m
Stablecoin Market Cap: $461.39m
Chain Fees (24h transaction fees): $5,774
Chain Revenue (24h on-chain income): $2,803
App Fees (24h application transaction fees): $73,254
App Revenue (24h application income): $8,005
DEX Spot Trading Volume (24h): $63.02m
Perps Contract Trading Volume (24h): $77.51m
Net Inflow (24h): $886,080
Total Financing: $513m
Market Cap (Circulating Mcap): $280.71m
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): $2.592b
Looking solely at TVL and trading volume, Monad is not a zombie chain; there are indeed people using and trading on the chain. The issue lies in the two dimensions of 'profitability and token structure', which can be a bit scary when unpacked.
See original
Monad In-Depth Observation: Monad's token economics are quietly hollowing out the holders
Let's take a quick look at the DefiLlama data snapshot:
TVL (Total Value Locked): $187.31m
Stablecoin Market Cap: $461.39m
Chain Fees (24h transaction fees): $5,774
Chain Revenue (24h on-chain income): $2,803
App Fees (24h application transaction fees): $73,254
App Revenue (24h application income): $8,005
DEX Spot Trading Volume (24h): $63.02m
Perps Contract Trading Volume (24h): $77.51m
Net Inflow (24h): $886,080
Total Financing: $513m
Market Cap (Circulating Mcap): $280.71m
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): $2.592b
Looking solely at TVL and trading volume, Monad is not a zombie chain; there are indeed people using and trading on the chain. The issue lies in the two dimensions of 'profitability and token structure', which can be a bit scary when unpacked.
TVL (Total Value Locked): $187.31m
Stablecoin Market Cap: $461.39m
Chain Fees (24h transaction fees): $5,774
Chain Revenue (24h on-chain income): $2,803
App Fees (24h application transaction fees): $73,254
App Revenue (24h application income): $8,005
DEX Spot Trading Volume (24h): $63.02m
Perps Contract Trading Volume (24h): $77.51m
Net Inflow (24h): $886,080
Total Financing: $513m
Market Cap (Circulating Mcap): $280.71m
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): $2.592b
Looking solely at TVL and trading volume, Monad is not a zombie chain; there are indeed people using and trading on the chain. The issue lies in the two dimensions of 'profitability and token structure', which can be a bit scary when unpacked.
See original
Tonight at 23:00, the U.S. Core PCE for September will be released, with only 40 minutes left.
FedWatch shows:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 87.2%
The probability of keeping it unchanged is 12.8%
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is even higher, reaching 93%.
It is worth mentioning that two weeks ago, the probability of 'no rate cut' once exceeded that of '25bp rate cut' — this was one of the core reasons for the market weakening at that time.
However, with the recent dovish signals from the Fed and some macro data supporting the rate cut path, the market's expectations for a rate cut have once again been elevated.
It should be emphasized that:
This PCE is the most critical piece of data before next week's FOMC meeting and is very likely to directly influence the Fed's final decision.
#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH
FedWatch shows:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 87.2%
The probability of keeping it unchanged is 12.8%
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is even higher, reaching 93%.
It is worth mentioning that two weeks ago, the probability of 'no rate cut' once exceeded that of '25bp rate cut' — this was one of the core reasons for the market weakening at that time.
However, with the recent dovish signals from the Fed and some macro data supporting the rate cut path, the market's expectations for a rate cut have once again been elevated.
It should be emphasized that:
This PCE is the most critical piece of data before next week's FOMC meeting and is very likely to directly influence the Fed's final decision.
#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH
See original
FORM is currently still operating in a declining wedge structure.
From the volume distribution perspective, if it breaks upward through the upper edge of the wedge, it is highly likely to encounter resistance in the high volume range of 0.41 in the short term, while around 0.43 is the current maximum trading density area, where the price is likely to face pressure.
However, it is crucial to be wary of the following:
FORM's recent trading volume has been persistently sluggish, with momentum clearly insufficient. In this volume context, there is a possibility of continuing to experience a sideways decline and pattern failure.
#加密市场观察 $FORM
From the volume distribution perspective, if it breaks upward through the upper edge of the wedge, it is highly likely to encounter resistance in the high volume range of 0.41 in the short term, while around 0.43 is the current maximum trading density area, where the price is likely to face pressure.
However, it is crucial to be wary of the following:
FORM's recent trading volume has been persistently sluggish, with momentum clearly insufficient. In this volume context, there is a possibility of continuing to experience a sideways decline and pattern failure.
#加密市场观察 $FORM
See original
TRUMP and UNI's trends are highly synchronized:
After a short period of sideways movement, they dipped to support levels and then rebounded back to the previous high trading volume range.
Currently, it appears that both are likely to continue oscillating within the upper and lower ranges.
The key going forward still depends on Bitcoin:
If BTC can stabilize at the 90,000 mark, both TRUMP and UNI are expected to once again push toward local highs.
$UNI $TRUMP
After a short period of sideways movement, they dipped to support levels and then rebounded back to the previous high trading volume range.
Currently, it appears that both are likely to continue oscillating within the upper and lower ranges.
The key going forward still depends on Bitcoin:
If BTC can stabilize at the 90,000 mark, both TRUMP and UNI are expected to once again push toward local highs.
$UNI $TRUMP
See original
EIGEN is still operating within a downward channel, having fallen nearly 65% from the peak of the channel.
The current price is close to the lowest point of the crash on 10/11, which may provide a short-term support — but it should be emphasized that a rebound does not equal a trend reversal, and the overall structure remains weak.
If this area cannot be held, EIGEN may eventually drop towards the 0.3 region.
#加密市场回调 $EIGEN
The current price is close to the lowest point of the crash on 10/11, which may provide a short-term support — but it should be emphasized that a rebound does not equal a trend reversal, and the overall structure remains weak.
If this area cannot be held, EIGEN may eventually drop towards the 0.3 region.
#加密市场回调 $EIGEN
See original
NEAR has broken through the key support area of 1.7–1.8.
If today's closing cannot return to this area, from the daily structure, it has only completed a downward break of the rectangular oscillation range.
According to technical calculations, NEAR may continue to explore historical lows.
What is more noteworthy is:
Bitcoin has only dropped below 90,000, many altcoins are already close to historical bottom ranges.
If BTC really goes down to 70,000 or even lower, altcoins will generally face a deeper round of declines.
You might think: "My altcoin has already dropped 90% from its peak, could it drop further?"
Unfortunately, it indeed could drop another 90%.
So—despite the fact that altcoins "look very cheap" now, it is not an ideal bottom-fishing range.
If you really want to invest, prioritize BTC and other mainstream, high-quality assets, and use a phased approach to reduce risk.
#加密市场反弹
If today's closing cannot return to this area, from the daily structure, it has only completed a downward break of the rectangular oscillation range.
According to technical calculations, NEAR may continue to explore historical lows.
What is more noteworthy is:
Bitcoin has only dropped below 90,000, many altcoins are already close to historical bottom ranges.
If BTC really goes down to 70,000 or even lower, altcoins will generally face a deeper round of declines.
You might think: "My altcoin has already dropped 90% from its peak, could it drop further?"
Unfortunately, it indeed could drop another 90%.
So—despite the fact that altcoins "look very cheap" now, it is not an ideal bottom-fishing range.
If you really want to invest, prioritize BTC and other mainstream, high-quality assets, and use a phased approach to reduce risk.
#加密市场反弹
See original
After AVAX broke below the key support zone of 14.7–15.6, it rebounded to this zone and faced resistance again.
Structurally, AVAX is still operating within a descending channel, currently being pressured by the upper edge of the channel, with an overall weak trend.
Next, we will see if the price continues to be pushed down:
If it continues to weaken, the short-term target will point to the previous low area, approximately around 12.6.
#加密市场反弹 $AVAX
Structurally, AVAX is still operating within a descending channel, currently being pressured by the upper edge of the channel, with an overall weak trend.
Next, we will see if the price continues to be pushed down:
If it continues to weaken, the short-term target will point to the previous low area, approximately around 12.6.
#加密市场反弹 $AVAX
See original
BNB broke through the 880 resistance level and is currently consolidating, still following a short-term ascending trend line.
The key next point to watch is the support strength at 880:
If it holds above 880, BNB is expected to continue climbing towards previous highs and high volume areas, with a target around 950.
If it falls below 880, then the area around 800 will become the next important observation point, and BNB may regain support there.
#加密市场反弹 $BNB
The key next point to watch is the support strength at 880:
If it holds above 880, BNB is expected to continue climbing towards previous highs and high volume areas, with a target around 950.
If it falls below 880, then the area around 800 will become the next important observation point, and BNB may regain support there.
#加密市场反弹 $BNB
See original
DASH rebounded from the support zone of 50–60, but faced resistance again at 70.
The overall structure remains weak, with the price continuing to operate in a downward trend.
In the short term, DASH is likely to continue consolidating in the 50–60 range.
In the long term, although privacy coins often temporarily outperform BTC in the bull tail—bear initial phase, they ultimately still struggle to escape the overall downward fate—this is determined by narrative, liquidity, and regulatory pressure together.
#加密市场反弹 $DASH
The overall structure remains weak, with the price continuing to operate in a downward trend.
In the short term, DASH is likely to continue consolidating in the 50–60 range.
In the long term, although privacy coins often temporarily outperform BTC in the bull tail—bear initial phase, they ultimately still struggle to escape the overall downward fate—this is determined by narrative, liquidity, and regulatory pressure together.
#加密市场反弹 $DASH
See original
BTC has returned to 90,000, but the real test has just begun.
Currently, the price is stuck in the key range of 88,500–91,500. In the short-term rebound, the trading volume has not increased, and the open interest (OI) has not shown a significant rise—this means the market has not given a "stable" signal yet.
The next path is very clear:
If it successfully stabilizes in this range, the next stop will be the 100,000 mark.
If it's just a weak rebound, BTC may still retrace to 75,000—the low point of this year, which is also the potential main support.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC
Currently, the price is stuck in the key range of 88,500–91,500. In the short-term rebound, the trading volume has not increased, and the open interest (OI) has not shown a significant rise—this means the market has not given a "stable" signal yet.
The next path is very clear:
If it successfully stabilizes in this range, the next stop will be the 100,000 mark.
If it's just a weak rebound, BTC may still retrace to 75,000—the low point of this year, which is also the potential main support.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC
See original
Recently, the chart structures of TRUMP and UNI are very similar:
Sharp decline → Sideways consolidation
Break through short-term resistance → Create a new high for the phase
Then broke below the key level
Currently, both are gaining support near the high trading volume area of the previous sideways range
At the same time, the trading volumes for both have clearly shrunk compared to the breakout phase,
Key observation points
If both TRUMP & UNI can hold the lower boundary of the sideways range
→ There is a chance to surge again, challenging the previous highs
If both break below the lower boundary of the range
→ Prices may return to the previous sharp decline shadow area to "replenish liquidity"
$UNI $TRUMP
Sharp decline → Sideways consolidation
Break through short-term resistance → Create a new high for the phase
Then broke below the key level
Currently, both are gaining support near the high trading volume area of the previous sideways range
At the same time, the trading volumes for both have clearly shrunk compared to the breakout phase,
Key observation points
If both TRUMP & UNI can hold the lower boundary of the sideways range
→ There is a chance to surge again, challenging the previous highs
If both break below the lower boundary of the range
→ Prices may return to the previous sharp decline shadow area to "replenish liquidity"
$UNI $TRUMP
See original
SUI is currently retesting the key resistance zone after breaking below $1.6–$1.8.
If this zone cannot hold, the overall trend remains biased towards a weak structure.
From a larger chart perspective:
Around $0.65 is the global POC (high volume concentration area),
which is also the area where significant accumulation and turnover occurred in the past.
If the rebound fails and the trend continues downward, SUI has a higher probability of returning to this position for support confirmation.
#加密市场回调 $SUI
If this zone cannot hold, the overall trend remains biased towards a weak structure.
From a larger chart perspective:
Around $0.65 is the global POC (high volume concentration area),
which is also the area where significant accumulation and turnover occurred in the past.
If the rebound fails and the trend continues downward, SUI has a higher probability of returning to this position for support confirmation.
#加密市场回调 $SUI
See original
MON Technology + Sentiment Analysis: The "Accumulation Zone" Before a Major Market Move
MON's open interest (OI) continues to rise, which is a very clear signal.
Whether it is upward or downward, once the direction is determined, the market will become very volatile.
This type of structure usually indicates that the market is brewing a "big explosion".
Funding Rate: Bearish Bias
From Binance's funding rate, the current funding is < -0.2%,
which indicates a bearish dominance,
and this structure typically leads to:
If a short squeeze occurs above, the price might spike directly, recreating the previous "sharp surge" pattern.
But it must be noted:
The market environment is different from the last major surge.
Strategy Suggestion:
Do not over-leverage in one direction, wait for direction confirmation before following in.
#加密市场回调 $MON
MON's open interest (OI) continues to rise, which is a very clear signal.
Whether it is upward or downward, once the direction is determined, the market will become very volatile.
This type of structure usually indicates that the market is brewing a "big explosion".
Funding Rate: Bearish Bias
From Binance's funding rate, the current funding is < -0.2%,
which indicates a bearish dominance,
and this structure typically leads to:
If a short squeeze occurs above, the price might spike directly, recreating the previous "sharp surge" pattern.
But it must be noted:
The market environment is different from the last major surge.
Strategy Suggestion:
Do not over-leverage in one direction, wait for direction confirmation before following in.
#加密市场回调 $MON
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