云澈趋势论

$BTC After last night's intense volatility in both directions, the market's volatility has temporarily subsided, but the overall structure has shifted to a weak position. Currently, the rebound from the low point of 85200 is limited and weak, with prices facing resistance around 86100. This is a typical technical correction after a decline, not a signal of a trend reversal. Bullish momentum is clearly insufficient, and the rebound is more likely due to short-term profit-taking by bears.

From a critical level analysis, the area between 86100 and 86500 has formed initial resistance, and this area is a point of observation to confirm whether bears still dominate the market. If the rebound stalls here or shows bearish patterns, prices are likely to retest the support at the early morning low of 85200. Once this level is broken, the downward space will further open, with targets looking towards the 84000-84500 area. Overall, the early morning market can be seen as a consolidation under the bearish trend. Before prices effectively break through and stabilize above 87000, the bearish pattern remains unchanged.
#美国非农数据超预期
Bitcoin outlook: Short in the 86500-87000 range, target 85000
Ethereum outlook: Short in the 2850-2880 range, target 2780

$BTC Last night's market fluctuated violently to form a V-shaped reversal, but the current price has fallen back to the key support near 86500, indicating a depletion of rebound momentum, and the market structure has turned bearish. The rapid decline after the high point of 90300 and the breach of the 87000 support indicate that the selling pressure above is extremely heavy, and the bulls lack sufficient resistance at high levels. The daily line has formed a long upper shadow, combined with the volume expanding during the decline, confirming the validity of the short-term top formation. #美国非农数据超预期

From a technical structure perspective, the price has broken through the 87000-87500 boundary between bulls and bears, and this position has now turned into strong resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the MA5 and MA10 have formed a death cross and are diverging downward, the MACD has formed a death cross at a high position above the zero axis, with the green bars continuing to expand, and the RSI rebound failed to break through the 50 mid-axis and has turned down again, all indicating that bearish momentum is increasing. If the price cannot quickly recover the 87000 level, it is highly likely to test the deeper support area of 85000-84500.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to use the area above 87000 as a stop-loss reference, and to layout short positions at highs in the 86500-87000 area, with the target looking towards the 85000-84500 area. If the price unexpectedly stands strong above 87500, the short-term bearish logic needs to be reassessed.

$BTC Currently, although BTC has experienced a pullback, the price's rapid stabilization above the key support zone still shows the resilience of the medium-term upward trend. In the afternoon, the price received strong buying support and rebounded in the 86500-86000 range (where the daily MA30 coincides with the previous breakout platform), indicating solid bullish defense in this area. As long as this core support zone is not broken with a large volume drop, the overall structure remains a healthy trend consolidation. #美国非农数据超预期

From a technical indicator perspective, short-term bearish momentum shows signs of exhaustion. The 1-hour RSI formed a bottom divergence after reaching the oversold zone and rebounded to the midpoint, and the 4-hour MACD green bars continue to shorten, with the fast and slow lines having the potential to golden cross above the zero axis again. The price remains within the high-level box of 86000-88500, which accumulates energy for subsequent upward breakthroughs.

The focus will be on two key nodes: if the price can firmly stand above the resistance at 87500 with increased volume, it will confirm the end of the pullback and restart the upward momentum, targeting the previous high of 88500 or even above 90000; if the trend continues to oscillate, then the final line of defense at 86000-85500 must be maintained. The current consolidation is more inclined to be an upward continuation, and traders can pay attention to bullish opportunities after the support zone stabilizes.

$BTC From a technical structure perspective, although Bitcoin has pulled back from $87,500 in the short term, the price has clearly gained buying support in the key support area of $86,500-$86,000. The daily ascending channel and the dual support formed by the previous breakout platform remain solid. The volume of this pullback is gradually shrinking, and the RSI on the hourly chart has rebounded from the oversold zone, indicating a decrease in selling pressure, which is a technical correction in a strong trend.

The key battleground is the conversion of resistance at the $87,500 level. If the price can break through and stabilize at this position with increased volume, it will confirm the end of the pullback and restart the upward momentum, targeting the previous high of $88,500 and even above $90,000. As long as the core defense zone at $86,000-$85,500 is maintained, the mid-term oscillation upward pattern will remain intact. #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

In terms of operations, the area around $86,800 can currently be regarded as a potential layout zone for a trend pullback, with the risk control reference set below $86,500. A more conservative strategy is to wait for the price to break through $87,500 with increased volume before following the trend, or to add positions when it stabilizes after a pullback to the strong support area of $86,000-$86,200. Overall, as long as the $86,000 fortress holds, the likelihood of the market continuing its upward momentum after accumulating strength is relatively high.

$ETH From a technical perspective, Ethereum has successfully stabilized around $2880 and has strongly broken through the recent range. It is currently above $2955. The hourly chart shows the price running along the upper Bollinger band, with the MACD forming a golden cross above the zero line, and the trading volume is gradually increasing, indicating strong buying momentum in the short term. If it can hold above $2950, the next target will be the psychological level of $2980-3000.

The market structure shows positive signals, with the 4-hour chart forming a 'morning star' bullish pattern, and the price has returned above the key moving average system. The funding rate has turned positive, reflecting that market sentiment is quickly recovering from the data shock, and bullish funds are beginning to regroup. The daily ascending channel remains intact, and the overall trend pattern has not been damaged. #美国非农数据超预期

In terms of strategy, it is recommended to focus on a long position on pullbacks, paying close attention to the support strength in the $2930-2950 range. A valid breakout above $2980 is expected to accelerate the test of the resistance in the $3020-3050 area. Attention should be paid to the sentiment transmission after the U.S. stock market opens; if it pulls back without breaking below $2920, the short-term bullish structure will remain unchanged, and it is advised to set risk control below $2900.

$BTC From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has successfully risen above the $87,700 level after receiving strong buying support near $86,800. Both the hourly and 4-hour charts show a bullish arrangement, with a MACD golden cross and increased trading volume, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is still continuing. As long as the price remains above $87,500, there is a good chance of further testing the resistance range of $88,300-$88,800 in the short term.

Market sentiment is gradually recovering after the non-farm payroll data disturbance, with USDT premiums rising and perpetual contract funding rates turning positive, reflecting that capital sentiment has shifted from cautious to slightly bullish. The price has re-entered the daily upward channel since May, with the key moving average system providing upward support, and the overall technical structure leans towards optimism. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期

In terms of operations, it is recommended to primarily consider a low-buy strategy on pullbacks, focusing on the support effectiveness in the $87,200-$87,500 range. If it breaks through $88,300, it may open up space above $89,000, but caution is needed for potential volatility from evening U.S. economic data, and strict stop-loss should be set below $86,800 to control risk.

$BTC According to the current market analysis, Bitcoin is showing a slight rebound but is overall under pressure in a fluctuating pattern. After touching the lower Bollinger Band, there has been some recovery on the daily level, but the upper pressure is clear, and the three Bollinger Bands are flattening, indicating weakened trend momentum; on the 4-hour level, it is still constrained by the middle Bollinger Band, and attention should be paid to the price breakout around 89000 USD. If it cannot effectively stabilize, it will still maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term.

From the short-term technical indicators, the market shows signs of a mild rebound. The KDJ on the 1-hour level has formed a golden cross above 50, the RSI is at 48.9 showing a neutral to strong state, and the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis but with weak momentum, indicating limited rebound strength. The current price is gradually testing upwards, with limited pullback, and is overall in a consolidation phase of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a light position short-term strategy, entering and exiting quickly to lock in profits. Bitcoin can focus on light long positions in the 86500-87000 range, targeting around 88500; Ethereum can consider gradually building long positions in the 2900-2930 area, with a short-term target around the 3000 mark. Strict stop-loss measures should be set, and if the price breaks key support or the rebound is weak, one should exit in a timely manner.

After a strong rebound to $86,400 following a drop to $85,288 in the morning, it shows that there is effective bullish support in this area. The quick V-shaped reversal indicates that the main buying power remains active, with the hourly MACD green bars appearing and the price standing above the short-term moving averages, presenting a corrective trend.

The current key resistance is located in the 86,800-87,000 range. If a volume breakout occurs, it will confirm a strengthening short-term trend, with further targets looking above $87,500. The lower range of 86,000-86,200 has turned into the primary support zone, and as long as the price remains stable above this area, the rebound structure is expected to continue.
#巨鲸动向 $ETH
Overall, the morning pullback can be seen as a technical washout, with the daily upward channel remaining intact. In terms of operations, attention can be paid to opportunities for stabilization at support or following a breakthrough of key resistance, but strict risk control is necessary. If there is an unexpected drop below $85,800, a reassessment of the short-term direction will be required.

The morning Bitcoin dipped to $85,288 and quickly rebounded, with the current price rising to around $86,400, indicating strong bullish support at this level. From a technical perspective, the price formed a V-shaped reversal after reaching a previous area of dense trading, with the hourly MACD showing green bars for the first time and the RSI exiting the oversold territory, indicating a significant reduction in short-term downward momentum.

Key resistance to watch is the 86,800-87,000 area. If this position can be broken with increased volume, it will confirm a short-term trend reversal to bullish and open up upward space. The daily and 4-hour charts still maintain an upward channel; the current pullback has not damaged the medium-term structure. As long as the price remains stable above the 86,000 mark, the technical pattern still leans towards oscillating upward. #BinanceABCs $BTC

Operationally, attention can be paid to light positions attempting to go long near the 86,200 area if it stabilizes. After breaking 86,800, it is expected to further test the 87,500 resistance area. It should be noted that if the price falls below 86,000 again and the rebound is weak, caution should be taken regarding the risk of a deeper adjustment, and it is recommended to strictly set stop losses and control positions.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum quickly rebounded to around $2965 after rapidly dipping below the $2900 integer level, forming a significant long lower shadow on the daily chart, which clearly indicates the presence of strong bullish defense in the 2900-2880 region. This position is not only a key platform in the previous upward trend but also a psychological support level. The rapid rebound in this area shows that the market's main capital has not given up on the existing trend structure. $ETH #巨鲸动向

The steep decline that started from $3150 can be viewed as a concentrated release of profit-taking in the continuous rising market. In the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone and has shown signs of a bottom divergence, while trading volume has shrunk during the late stages of the decline. These are all technical signals indicating a short-term exhaustion of bearish momentum. After a rapid decline, the market often requires a technical repair to rebalance the long and short forces.

Ethereum Strategy: Buy around 2950, target 3020
Bitcoin Strategy: Buy around 86000, target 87500

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $86,300 after touching the critical support at $85,000, forming a distinct lower shadow structure on the daily chart. This indicates that buying power below is beginning to show, with the $85,000-$84,500 range acting as a previous dense trading zone, now forming an important bullish defense line. As long as the price can hold above this area, the trend structure of this round of increases remains intact.

The rapid decline that started from $89,800 was steep and did not provide a rebound opportunity, which can be viewed as a concentrated release of profits accumulated after continuous increases. Currently, the RSI indicator on the four-hour chart has entered the oversold area and shows signs of turning, while the candlestick has formed a low-level doji signal. These are all typical characteristics of short-term bearish momentum exhaustion and the demand for technical repair. The market often has a higher probability of experiencing reverse fluctuations after extreme one-sided movements. #BinanceABCs $BTC

Looking ahead, the key resistance area above is located at the $87,500-$88,000 line. If it can regain stability at this position, it would mean that the correction structure may have ended, and the market is likely to regain upward momentum. The current strategy should not pursue short positions; instead, attention should be closely paid to whether the price can form clear stabilization and reversal signals in the support area, which may be an opportunity for a new round of bullish positioning.

This rapid decline, which started from the line of 89800 USD, showed signs of stabilization after touching the support near 86500 USD. This position is not only an important threshold for the intraday decline but also overlaps with the support zone formed by multiple previous daily lows, leading to a strong bullish defense expectation technically. If the price can form a double bottom or a right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom structure here, accompanied by bullish engulfing or long lower shadow reversal signals on the hourly chart, it may trigger a technical rebound targeting the resistance zone of 88000-88500 USD.

Although the daily chart has clearly faced resistance at the 90000 USD level, the current pullback can still be seen as a healthy correction to the significant rise since the beginning of the year. As long as the price can hold firmly within the mid-term bullish-bearish dividing line area of 85000-86000 USD, the overall ascending channel structure will not be broken. This round of adjustment has effectively released short-term overbought pressure and cleared some of the unsteady bullish positions. If subsequent buying can continue to support at key support levels, it will instead lay the foundation for a more robust rise. $BTC #巨鲸动向

Bitcoin strategy: Buy near 86000, target 87500
Ethereum strategy: Buy near 2960, target 3050

The price of Bitcoin has been stagnant before the critical resistance level of $90,000, with the bullish momentum clearly exhausted and showing signs of fatigue. Market sentiment has shifted from the positive 'buying on dips' to concerns about liquidation risks, coupled with the fading of macroeconomic benefits. In the short term, core pressure is concentrated in the $91,000 to $92,000 range.

If the market weakens, Bitcoin will first test the central support zone of $88,000 to $89,000. If it breaks down, it may open up a downward wave, further testing the $85,500 to $87,500 range, and even the critical neckline at $85,000.
#巨鲸动向 $BTC
Ethereum is also pressured in the strong resistance zone of $3,180 to $3,200, with the bearish trend line on the hourly chart continuously suppressing rebounds. Its key support is located between $3,050 and $3,080, and if it breaks below this, it will directly threaten the psychological level of $3,000. Overall, the price has long struggled to break through key resistance, and the possibility of the market choosing to test support downwards is increasing.

The morning Bitcoin quickly rebounded after dipping to $87,500 and is currently strongly recovering to around $89,700. This pullback confirmed the validity of the support below, with the price forming a clear bullish pattern at a key position, indicating strong buying power from bulls and a strong "buy the dip" sentiment in the market.

From a technical indicator perspective, the 4-hour chart RSI has turned upwards again from above the 50 midpoint, and the MACD momentum bars also show signs of re-expansion. Coupled with a moderate increase in trading volume, it indicates that buying momentum is recovering. The price is stable above the short-term moving average system, and the overall structure maintains an upward trend. The next key resistance to watch is the $90,500 to $91,000 area. #美联储降息 $BTC

In terms of operations, it is recommended to maintain a bullish outlook. Holding long positions can continue to be held, and the stop-loss can be moved up to protect profits below $88,500; if the price stabilizes in the $88,800–$89,200 range, consider gradually adding to long positions, targeting $90,500 and $91,500 above. Attention should be given to profit-taking pressure at high levels, and if it falls below $88,500, a reassessment of the short-term direction is necessary.

After Ethereum broke below the key support of $3100 in the early morning, it quickly dipped to the level of $3022. Currently, it has rebounded to around $3060, but the rebound strength is weak and the trading volume has not effectively supported it, indicating insufficient market buying willingness, presenting an overall bearish pattern of "breaking down and then rebounding".

From a technical structure perspective, the price has confirmed that it is operating below the main moving average system, and the short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement. The area of $3080-$3100 has shifted from previous support to a key resistance zone. If the rebound cannot break through this resistance area with volume, the market will likely continue to show a bearish dominant trend. #美联储降息 $ETH

On the downside, it is essential to pay close attention to the support strength at the previous low of $3020. If this level is lost, the price may further open up downward space to the $2950-$2980 area. Before the price stabilizes above the $3100 level, the technical outlook remains bearish, and any weak rebound could become a new pressure test.

After Bitcoin effectively broke below the key psychological level of $90,000, it accelerated downward, reaching a low of 87,900. Although there was a slight rebound to around 88,200 afterward, the overall trend exhibited characteristics of 'increased volume decline and decreased volume rebound' in a bearish price-volume pattern. This indicates heavy selling pressure in the market, and the support from bullish buying is clearly lacking.

From a technical structure perspective, the price has formed a bearish pattern at the daily level characterized by 'lower highs and lower lows,' and it continues to operate below the major moving averages. The current 89,000-89,500 area has turned into a key resistance zone recently. If the rebound cannot break through this area with volume, the moving average system will create dynamic pressure, potentially enhancing bearish momentum. The short-term core risk lies in the effectiveness of the support at the previous low of 87,900. If this level is lost, the downside space may further open up to the 85,000-86,000 range. #美联储降息 $BTC

Bitcoin strategy: Short in the 88,500-88,800 range, target 87,000
Ethereum strategy: Short in the 3,080-3,100 range, target 3,000

Bitcoin Aunt's Evening Operation Suggestions and Future Trend Analysis:

12/14 The market is currently in a sideways correction phase, rebounding after touching around 89700, currently fluctuating around 90200. The weekend was a sideways consolidation, and a significant fluctuation is expected tonight. It's necessary to control risks!

The one-hour level faces significant pressure, with this pressure point overlapping with pressure zones from multiple periods such as 2 hours and 4 hours. A breakthrough requires strong buying support; the lower support focuses on around $89,000. If bullish signals appear at this position, it can serve as a reference for short-term layout.

From the perspective of short-cycle linkage, the breakthrough of the one-hour market relies on the continuous upward momentum provided by short-cycle trends such as 10 minutes, 15 minutes, and 30 minutes. Currently, the overall state is at the end of a triangular consolidation, and the one-hour level and longer period indicators are in a state of accumulation, waiting for a directional choice. In the short term, the bearish trend is relatively strong, but the wave structure driven by bulls has not been destroyed and still has the potential for upward movement.
$BTC #美联储降息
Evening operation suggestions:
Bitcoin: 89500-90000, target 90600-92000
Ethereum strategy: 2980-3000 long, target 3080-3100

From a technical perspective, the rapid decline in the early morning can be seen as a concentrated test of the key support area after the breakout. Bitcoin dropped from 92600 to 89500, just retesting the daily neckline level and the lower channel boundary of the previous breakout. Ethereum similarly touched the trend support zone around 3040. This volume pullback not only absorbed the short-term overbought pressure but also formed a lower shadow at a key position, solidifying the foundation for future upward movement.

In terms of trend structure, the weekly upward pattern has not been broken, and this pullback remains within the normal retest range after the breakout. The 4-hour RSI has corrected from the overbought region to a neutral level, with no signs of continuous selling divergence, and the market has shown clear signs of bullish and bearish turnover and accumulation in the support area. #美联储降息 $BTC

Looking ahead, if the price can stabilize in the 90300-90000 range and gradually recover the 91500 level, it is likely to form a bullish confirmation signal of "breaking lower and rebounding." Against the backdrop of mid-term liquidity easing and continuous inflows of ETF funds, the intense volatility of this Black Friday is more likely to provide a healthy consolidation step for trend continuation.

From the current market observation, Bitcoin has built a solid support at the lower edge of the box near 92000. Although the afternoon market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, it remained stable above the key defense level of 91800, indicating a clear willingness of the bulls to protect the market during the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The current price is running near 92300, positioned above the central area of the box. Short-term moving averages are gradually flattening and converging, while trading volume is moderately shrinking during the consolidation, which is a healthy technical accumulation structure.

From a technical indicator perspective, the hourly MACD has shown signs of forming a golden cross again above the zero axis, with the green momentum bars starting to increase slightly. The RSI is steadily testing upwards from the midpoint of 50, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually accumulating. The key support area of 91800-92000 has been tested multiple times effectively, forming a clear 'multiple probing bottom' structure, which can be seen as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Considering the box's operational rules, if the price can maintain stability above 92300, it is expected to test the upper edge of the box at the pressure range of 93500-93800. #美联储降息 $BTC

Bitcoin strategy: Buy near 91800, target 93500
Ethereum strategy: Buy near 3215, target 3280

This morning, Bitcoin has officially started a new round of downward movement, oscillating down from a high of 93,500 to around 91,400. Our short positions have successfully taken profit of nearly 800 points. Although the current price has rebounded to around 92,100, the technical structure clearly shows a bearish dominance: the daily level has formed a 'double top' prototype, and the 93,000 neck line has become a strong resistance; the 4-hour chart's moving average system is showing bearish divergence, with a second death cross below the MACD zero line and the RSI continuing to operate in a weak zone, indicating that this rebound is merely a technical correction within a downtrend.

Key resistance is concentrated in the 92,800-93,200 range, where the morning's breakout platform and the 4-hour MA30 pressure converge. Without a breakout on high volume, this area remains an effective pressure zone. Attention must be paid to the psychological level of the previous low at 91,200 and the Fibonacci retracement support at 89,500. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone and stagnates or breaks below 91,200, it will likely initiate a second bottoming trend. The volume-price relationship shows characteristics of increasing volume on the decline and decreasing volume on the rebound, reflecting weak market momentum. #美联储降息 $BTC

In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies, with possibilities to gradually position short orders in the 92,600-93,200 range, placing stop-losses above 93,500, and targeting the 91,200-89,500 area. Caution should be exercised if the price breaks above 93,500 on high volume, as this could form a bearish trap; at that point, it is necessary to exit and observe. The lower level of 89,500 serves as a mid-term dividing line between bulls and bears, and a valid breakout will open up deeper adjustment space.