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#币圈现状

Once legendary traders have all gone bankrupt,

Did they collectively go bankrupt?

Chrysanthemums are blooming all over the mountains,

May I ask, do you regret coming to the crypto world?

In the past, $PIPPIN, $ARC, $SWARMS, and $JELLY were always linked together and surged, but it seems that their correlation is not as strong as before.

To be honest, $PIPPIN is really impressive, performing the best! $ARC is also quite good, while the other two are slightly weaker. $SWARMS was the old monster coin; could it become the next one to surge violently? Worth paying attention to!

After waking up, FOLKS dropped from 46 to 14 in two days, and I made 4000%, ending up with 8000 dollars. This market is really hard to understand: if it's a bear market, there are always a few coins that jump several times like a single-player game; if it's a bull market, the overall market is sluggish, and opportunities to make money just can't be found.

After thinking it over, the most stable approach right now might be to either chase those coins that are on the rise in the rankings or wait until they have risen significantly before shorting—after all, those that rise sharply are likely to fall hard as well. For small funds entering the market, it's best not to set stop losses, as it's easy to be shaken out by fluctuations.

Coins like FHE with low market value might still have room to grow, so they are not suitable for casual shorting. If you really want to short, you have to wait for the trading volume to decrease before considering it. Overall, chasing the coins on the rise in the rankings seems to have a slightly higher chance of winning.

Is there a rebound? It mainly depends on the situation of net capital inflow; we can't just rely on guessing. If there isn't a large accumulation of funds, there won't be a significant rebound. However, even without accumulation, the main players might still directly push the price up violently, creating a large bullish candlestick.

Just after saying that, on the 12th at noon, BTC's main players stopped market making, and it has been 4 days without their return. What do you think they are doing?

Binance's recent surge is mainly due to the update of UTF-8 programming. In simple terms, it has been dealing with issues related to Chinese trading pairs, and is looking for an opportunity to launch spot trading. However, it seems that the launch of spot trading is getting closer and closer, and starting next year, Chinese will be the most awesome.

The hype is still quite strong, basically no changes, and it doesn't follow the market. The current shape is still in a descending wedge, which is a bullish pattern. After the fluctuations end, there is hope for a surge, so it can be continuously monitored.

The new meme coins on the BSC chain have become completely unplayable, and the chances of a pump (P pump) are basically nonexistent. Everyone should honestly hold onto their old community coins to get through the winter!

Recently, without the leading KOLs promoting, BSC liquidity has significantly decreased, and there are far fewer new coin launches. Even if they launch, most are just short-lived, hitting a market cap of $100,000 before peaking. Last night, the response to $lol had it hit $100,000 and then tanked immediately, while $RocketDog struggled to break a million, only to be halved within hours, with hotspots completely cut off.

More obviously, the Binance Alpha points airdrop has not introduced new projects for two consecutive days, and even small gains are hard to come by. The market has officially entered a bear market cool-off period. In this market, don't rush into new launches; back-and-forth pumping will only waste your funds. Don't rush into coins related to the Spring Festival mascot either; until certainty emerges, guessing around a bunch of projects will only serve as stepping stones for others. The safest choice is to hold onto some old community coins and wait for the market to warm up.

On BSC, prioritize selecting community tokens that haven't been on Alpha yet, such as $BeeDog, $SuccessUponArrival, $Kurumi, $bibi, etc. These coins with spontaneous communities have high ceilings and low risks of going to zero. When the bull market comes, the odds are also not bad, making them the best value during the bear market! #山寨季将至？

Have you noticed: In 2017, everyone was crazy about ICOs, in 2020 they were crazy about DeFi, in 2021 they were crazy about public chains, in 2022 the bear market was silent, and in 2023 the meme craze.

And now... a new narrative is brewing, opportunities are quietly coming. Do you want to make quick money? Then you will chase the trends. But do you want to make big money? You must position yourself in advance for the trend.

All the big funds, institutions, and deep players are doing the same thing: laying out a year in advance, ambushing six months early, settling in three months ahead, and then quietly waiting for the wind to come. If you think they are just lucky, you are mistaken. They are just a step ahead of others. It is this half step that leaves at least ninety percent of people far behind.

Because true wealth is never born in the noise, but starts at the moment when "others can't understand, but you already do."

The trend of ETH will be more complex than BTC. The previous surge was mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar (exchange rate factors).

Now, at this early hour, the rise is only about 100 dollars, and the momentum is clearly not strong anymore. At this position, there will be a super exhausting oscillation washout, with a rebound from 2700 to 3400 having already increased by over 25%. I feel that this wave will likely peak around 3580, leaving about 10% of space.

But this 10% will definitely not come easily, as it will make you doubt your life while getting cut back and forth; the upward movement often lasts for just a short while. Since November, trading ETH has become particularly difficult.

Final result: ETH will definitely return to the 1000s (over 1000).

After the big sister spoke
The BSC chain hasn't launched any meme coins for several hours now

Now the P players can take a good rest
The rest are all elites

10-20w market cap crazy mutual cutting
But can we understand this as an opportunity for a second ambush?

$Binance芽
Increased positions

$ETH is undoubtedly the brightest performer in this round of rebound; it has already completed the MACD indicator's pullback to the 0 axis first; currently, it has encountered resistance at the first strong pressure level.

Rebound markets are mainly characterized by fluctuations, so smaller timeframes can be quite chaotic and difficult to guide trading; looking at the daily level, there is still no sign of decline (of course, if a decline is seen, it may drop).

Therefore, in terms of operation, actively taking profits combined with passive profit-taking will neither retract too much profit nor miss out on too much growth.

The current altcoins are all quite inexplicable, how are they inexplicable?

The newly launched altcoins mostly start by declining continuously after opening, then suddenly spike up with a sharp rise and then go crazy, only to continue being sold off, essentially leaving no liquidity, just an empty shell left!

So altcoins are truly difficult, difficult, difficult!

From the data, the turnover rate is still quite high, mainly due to investors' speculative behavior during critical periods. After today, the turnover rate may gradually decline. The rise in turnover rate also indicates that short-term investors are more active, and the data supports this. The highest turnover rate still comes from investors who have been bottom-fishing in recent days, especially new investors whose cost price is below 90,000 dollars, who have reduced their holdings significantly.

The chip structure seems quite normal, and no stability issues have been found, especially since high-position loss investors have not shown signs of panic. Next, we will see the data released in December. If the expectation for interest rate cuts in January continues to rise, then the market's heat can still be maintained to some extent. btc

These 2 doors + rebound are becoming more like 2021-22.
If history repeats itself, BTC will rebound to the 98,000-100,000 range.

This wave of rebound at the beginning of 2022:

1 was driven by the rise of U.S. stocks.
2 was a technical rebound after the big drop.
3 was the downward adjustment of interest rate hike expectations.

But this rebound is ultimately a "flash in the pan." In the coming 2022,

May: LUNA collapsed.
June: Celsius crashed, 3AC went bankrupt.
November: FTX went bankrupt.

Here is the most core main line - the downward adjustment of interest rate hike expectations fell through - throughout 2022, the Federal Reserve not only reduced its balance sheet but also aggressively raised interest rates by 4%.

In 2026, this downward adjustment of interest rate hike expectations turned into an upward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations. No one knows, if this expectation falls through, will it trigger another round of hidden landmines?

Now the gameplay has changed. Meme coins on the SOL chain are basically: they go crazy with wash trading as soon as they are listed, like Spark, which dropped from a high of 80M directly to 1M, almost to zero, washing out retail investors thoroughly and for a long time, scaring them into cutting losses and fleeing, then slowly pulling back to 7M.

At this time, the project party smiles and asks retail investors: Will you cut losses? Will you exchange chips? The real experts throw away trash when it's expensive and pick up treasures when it's cheap.

Now, December is the best time to bury seeds at a low price. By early 2026, these seeds will bloom, and there will be a bountiful harvest! Don't miss out on the BSC chain either; now it's just waiting for the "whistleblower coin" to take off!