加密梅姐

November unemployment rate and non-farm employment data preview: The Federal Reserve's tough balancing act

Tonight, the November unemployment rate and non-farm employment data will be released; however, the lack of data from October and the large variance in November's data undoubtedly increase the uncertainty and difficulty of interpretation.

In the current complex economic situation, a slightly higher than expected unemployment rate of 4.4% and mildly weak data slightly below the expected 50,000 may be the most appropriate choice. From an economic logic perspective, if the data is too strong, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 will significantly decrease. Strong data often implies robust economic vitality, and the Federal Reserve may believe that there is no need to take premature or excessive interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, which may not be favorable for some sectors expecting loose monetary policy to promote growth.

Conversely, if the data is too poor, it will trigger market panic about economic recession. A high unemployment rate and sluggish non-farm employment data will make investors worry about a bleak economic outlook, leading to significant fluctuations in the financial markets and potentially triggering a chain reaction that affects the stable development of the real economy.

Looking back over the year, the Federal Reserve has consistently found itself in a predicament when making decisions. The global economic situation is complex and changeable, with various factors interwoven, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policy due to numerous restrictions and challenges. In this broader context, a moderate data guide can help maintain the market's confidence in stable economic development to some extent while also reserving some operational flexibility for the Federal Reserve to adjust strategies flexibly based on subsequent changes in the economic situation, achieving smooth economic operation and stability in the financial markets.

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ETH Trading Strategy Analysis: Shorting at High Levels to Capture Pullback Opportunities

Recently, the price trend of ETH has attracted market attention. Given the current market environment, we recommend a staggered shorting trading strategy.

Entry positions should be set around 2970-3050 for staggered short positions. This area presents certain technical pressure, and there is a high possibility that the price will face resistance and decline here.

To control risk, the stop-loss should be set at 3100. If the price breaks through this level, it indicates strong upward momentum, and the short strategy will become ineffective. Timely stop-loss can help avoid further losses.

For take-profit, there are three target levels. First, we look towards around 2854, where partial profits can be locked in; next is around 2740 to further increase profits; and finally, the target level is around 2630.

Traders need to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies based on technical indicators and market sentiment, and strictly adhere to stop-loss and take-profit disciplines to achieve steady profits in the volatile ETH market.

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Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Bitcoin Trends and Non-Farm Data Outlook

Last night, Bitcoin (BTC) once again dipped to around 85000. Over the past month, its price has shown a tendency to fall under pressure, with a stable market rhythm but a strong bearish atmosphere.

From today's market structure, bears dominate. Although there are weak signs of short-term recovery, the momentum is limited, and the overall strategy remains 'short on rallies'. In terms of resistance levels, they are 86500, 87000, and 87500, with a strong resistance zone at 88100 - 89000; support is focused at 85500, and if it falls below 84700, the price will likely dip to 81000. In extreme cases, it may even test the major cycle support area of 76000 - 74000 before the end of the month. On the indicators front, TD, MACD, and SKDJ have not provided clear bottom signals, making a short-term reversal difficult.

In terms of market characteristics, the Asian session has light trading volume and high volatility. If long positions are taken after the 1-hour indicator correction this morning, and if the price does not drop below 85500 during the day, a rebound to test the upper resistance level is expected. If the rebound fails to break through the resistance level, it presents a good opportunity for short positions. However, caution must be taken to control position sizes, reduce and add positions in batches, and strictly set stop losses slightly adjusted around whole numbers.

Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm data will be released, which is an important risk point for the market. If the published value of non-farm data is less than 5, it is bullish for Bitcoin; if greater than 5, it is bearish. Regarding the unemployment rate, a published value greater than 4.4 is bullish, and less than 4.4 is bearish. If both data points move in the same direction, the signal will strengthen; if one is bullish and the other bearish, the market may first oscillate, waiting for the U.S. stock market to guide the direction. Investors must prepare risk control in advance and respond cautiously.

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After Trump returned to the White House, the SEC's enforcement efforts in the cryptocurrency industry significantly decreased.

An investigation by The New York Times revealed that since Trump's return to the White House, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has notably reduced its enforcement actions in the cryptocurrency sector. Data shows that over 60% of the cryptocurrency cases it was still processing at the time of his return faced suspensions, reduced penalties, or were directly withdrawn, and no new cryptocurrency-related cases have been added since then.

This change is particularly striking in that the SEC has stopped pursuing all cases involving cryptocurrency companies known to have connections with Trump. Specifically, lawsuits against well-known cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Gemini have been withdrawn or frozen, and the SEC had also attempted to reduce the fines against Ripple, although this attempt did not gain support from the courts.

In response to external criticism, the SEC denied any political bias, emphasizing that its enforcement adjustments are based on legal judgments and policy considerations. However, this explanation has not fully quelled the controversy. Some former SEC officials have expressed concern that this reduction in enforcement might severely undermine investor protection mechanisms, especially in the high-risk, high-volatility cryptocurrency market.

As an emerging field, the cryptocurrency industry has always faced regulatory challenges. This shift in the SEC's enforcement strategy undoubtedly adds more uncertainty to the industry's future development. Finding a balance between maintaining market order, protecting investor interests, and encouraging innovation has become a pressing issue for regulators to address. In the future, the direction of the SEC’s regulation in the cryptocurrency industry deserves continued attention from all market participants.

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Sister Mei's BTC/ETH Analysis:

Yen arbitrage tightens, will we face the next round of adjustments?

Last week, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, prices surged to 94,500 before starting to pull back. The market did not break through this oscillation box structure under the expectation of easing, so this week, under the influence of tightening yen policies, the fear index rose to 16, resulting in increased downward pressure on the market, mainly focusing on high volatility!

Today's Bitcoin weekly line closed with a hanging head red candle, and the daily line saw a large bearish move breaking the mid-track support at 87,600, leading to a rebound. Currently, the small-level moving averages show a head and shoulders pattern, with the small-level rebound pressure looking at the 90,600-91,500 range. As long as it stabilizes above these two positions, the daily level remains bearish.

Focusing around the 90,800-90,600 range, with 91,500 for additional positioning, the target is to break down to 89,200-87,600, looking at 84,000.

Ethereum is focusing around the 3,150-3,180 range, with a target of breaking down to 3,057-3,003, looking at 2,900.
Short-term trading is flexible and changes, with defensive strategies based on one’s actual position!

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BTC Technical Analysis

1. Weekly Level: After the price reached the high point near 94500 last week, there was no effective breakthrough. The K-line again formed a bearish shooting star with a long upper shadow, further validating the view that the price is currently oscillating back and forth at the weekly level. From the range of the highest to the lowest point of the oscillation, the price oscillates around: 94500-80500, and the current price is at the upper edge of the oscillation range, leaving space for downward movement.

2. Daily Level: In terms of structure, the price is still in a bearish flag consolidation pattern, and after failing to break through the high point near 94500 last week, a double top structure formed. The price subsequently fell and is currently at the support of the flag's lower edge + the upward trend line. If this area is broken, the price will shift from (flag) consolidation oscillation to a clear downward trend. The target can be set at the starting point of 80500.

3. In terms of Fibonacci, the price rebounded to the fibo0.5 area at its highest, with the 50% area also being the bull-bear boundary line in Wyckoff, indicating that the current resistance is effective.

4. 4-Hour Level: In terms of Vegas, the price has consistently failed to break through the resistance of Vegas, so attention should be paid to the resistance situation of Vegas.

5. In terms of 4-hour structure, a head and shoulders top formed over the weekend with a breakdown, and the current price is pulling back against the neckline.

6. In terms of fixed trading volume, the POC area is around 90300, resonating with the neckline resistance, and also forming a triple resonance resistance with the middle Bollinger band. Therefore, shorts can be opened in this area and above, betting on the breakdown of the downward flag pattern.

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《Why I Don't Regret Spending 8 Years in the Crypto Industry?》

Recently, in response to Ken Chang's criticism that "cryptocurrency is a casino," Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, wrote an article. He acknowledged that the related reflections are not without reason, but emphasized that one cannot generalize; the crypto industry has diverse and profound development goals.

Nic Carter pointed out that the crypto industry does not exist in a single dimension but continuously evolves along multiple important paths. It is committed to building a sound monetary system, with the emergence of Bitcoin providing people with a decentralized, censorship-resistant digital currency option that challenges the monopoly of traditional finance; the development of smart contracts makes automated transactions without third-party trust possible, greatly expanding the application scenarios in finance and commerce; the exploration of digital property rights provides secure and transparent solutions for the ownership and trading of digital assets; in enhancing the efficiency of capital markets, the crypto industry has reduced transaction costs and improved market liquidity through innovative technological architectures; financial inclusion is also an important mission, allowing those unable to access traditional financial services globally to participate in financial activities.

Of course, there are indeed speculation and bubbles in the crypto field, which are side effects of the development of financial technology. However, we cannot throw the baby out with the bathwater; stablecoins play an important role in cross-border payments and value storage, Bitcoin has become akin to digital gold, and decentralized exchanges (DEX) provide users with a freer and safer trading environment, all of which demonstrate the real value of the crypto industry.

Nic Carter believes that the industry should maintain pragmatic optimism under realistic constraints. Despite facing many challenges and doubts, the crypto industry is gradually maturing. Reflecting on his 8 years in the crypto industry, Nic Carter does not regret his choice and firmly believes that the industry will create more possibilities in the future.

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Sister Mei's BTC~ETH Operation Guide

The current Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture, with technical and macro factors intertwining to create a short-term game pattern. On the technical side, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating in the 89000-92000 range, and the 4-hour chart shows a MACD golden cross with increasing volume, giving bulls a temporary advantage, but the contraction of the Bollinger Bands indicates a potential breakout is imminent.

Historical data shows that after multiple tests in this range, it often accompanies a directional choice. The current price is close to the lower edge of the fluctuation box, indicating a demand for a technical rebound.

In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to build positions in batches at 90200-89300, which covers the EMA15 trend line and the previous fluctuation central support level. The stop loss is set at 88900, corresponding to the recent low point and the dual support of the lower Bollinger Band. If broken, it may test the strong support area at 85000.

Take profit is set in three tiers: 91000 corresponds to a short-term resistance level, 92000 is the Fibonacci retracement 0.382 level, and 93000 requires breaking through the resistance cluster at 92630-93795. Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy direction; if dovish signals are released, it may trigger a breakout market; conversely, caution should be exercised for retracement risks.

Core Direction
Bullish on Ethereum, focusing on low-level layouts, accurately grasping entry timing, and steadily seeking profit space.

Operational Details
Entry Range: Going long near 3030-3080
Profit Target: First target 3130, after stabilizing, look upward to 3210

Operational Principles
Keep a close eye on key points, strictly control risks, follow the trend, and efficiently grasp short-term market opportunities.

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《2025 Global Cryptocurrency Regulatory Review》: New Trends in Cryptocurrency Regulation and the New Landscape of Stablecoins

Elliptic's latest release, the "2025 Global Cryptocurrency Regulatory Review," reveals significant shifts in the global cryptocurrency regulatory landscape and the new dynamics of stablecoin development.

In terms of regulation, countries are moving from a focus on "strict enforcement" to "innovation-driven" approaches. This shift aims to unleash the innovative potential of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, enhancing national advantages in the global digital economy competition. The United States stands out in this regard, with Trump prioritizing cryptocurrency as a core policy issue, injecting a boost into the industry's development. The introduction of the federal stablecoin framework, the GENIUS Act, provides clear regulatory guidance for the stablecoin market. At the same time, the DOJ has stopped "regulating by prosecution," and the SEC has established a special task force for cryptocurrency, reflecting a shift in the U.S. regulatory mindset and revitalizing market innovation confidence.

The stablecoin sector is undergoing profound changes, transitioning from "centralized IOUs" to on-chain native assets, with its roles as collateral, settlement, and yield tools becoming increasingly important, deeply influencing protocol design. Banks in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong are actively positioning themselves to enter the stablecoin issuance and custody space, significantly increasing institutional participation and accelerating the integration of the stablecoin market with the traditional financial system.

Global stablecoin regulations are also being implemented intensively. Countries and regions such as Hong Kong, the UK, South Korea, Singapore, and the UAE are steadily advancing the formulation of relevant rules to meet market development needs and promote the regulation and stability of the stablecoin market.

In the future, with the improvement of regulatory policies and market development, the cryptocurrency and stablecoin markets are expected to enter a healthier development phase, but attention must also be paid to risk prevention and control to ensure the stable operation of the financial system.

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Sister Mei's ETH Short-Term Trading Guide

In the short-term trading layout for Ethereum (ETH), we have developed the following strategies. Directionally, although there is some uncertainty in the current market, considering multiple factors, we tend to grasp potential downward opportunities.

The entry range is set at the price band of 3280 - 3300. This range is derived from recent price fluctuations, changes in trading volume, and analysis of key support and resistance levels, providing a high degree of rationality for entry.

The stop-loss level is set at 3330. When the price breaks through this level, it means that the market trend diverges from expectations. To control risk, timely stop-loss must be executed.

In terms of taking profits, a phased profit-taking strategy is adopted, with target prices set at 3250, 3220, 3190, and 3150. As the price gradually declines, profits are locked in step by step, ensuring gains while avoiding missed profit opportunities due to price reversals.

It should be noted that the timing for entry does not need to be strictly pinpointed. Within the given entry range, one can flexibly enter based on real-time market performance, combining technical indicators and market dynamics to capture the best entry timing to achieve trading goals.

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Under a net selling pressure of 600 million USD, BTC's trend is different; who is passively buying?

Recently, we have been continuously observing the bullish divergence in the spot market and discovered an interesting phenomenon: over the past week, the spot market has endured a net selling pressure of 600 million (the entire network's spot CVD actively sold a net of 600 million), yet the price trend remains resilient. Although it keeps 'painting doors,' the overall trend is upward, indicating that there is a significant amount of passive buying funds in the market.

In comparison to previous situations, from November 30 to December 1, the market also endured a net selling pressure of 600 million, but the price dropped by 7000 points. Clearly, in the past week, new funds have entered the market. The announcement by MSTR on Monday of 900 million in financing and the purchase of 10,000 BTC is a strong example.

Based on MSTR's stock price trend and bullish divergence, it is highly probable that they will continue to buy BTC this week. The reasoning is as follows: firstly, BTC rebounded due to positive news yesterday, and after MSTR's stock price surged, it immediately declined, dropping more than BTC, indicating that MSTR has selling pressure, suspected to be selling stock to finance in an ATM mode, and then buying BTC, creating passive buying. Next week, their purchase data will validate this speculation.

Secondly, MSTR hopes MSCI will withdraw the motion to remove it from the index and is very concerned about this matter and actively preparing. If removed from the index, the stock will face tens of billions in selling pressure, and mNAV may drop below 1, severely affecting financing ability. Therefore, MSTR is preparing 1.44 billion in funds to cope with future cash flow from dividends over the next 21 months, and has been crazily selling stock to finance the purchase of BTC since last week during low mNAV phases, which is rarely done.

This logic awaits validation in 1 - 2 weeks; if the scale of entry remains at 1 billion and 10,000 BTC per week next week, perhaps it will confirm this. Currently, MSTR's stock price performance and the ongoing bullish divergence and passive buying phenomenon of BTC slowly support this conjecture, and the data to be released next week is worth looking forward to.

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The U.S. "National Defense Authorization Act" did not include a CBDC ban, causing waves within the party

Recently, the U.S. House of Representatives successfully passed the annual "National Defense Authorization Act" (NDAA) with a vote of 312 in favor and 112 against, quickly sending it to the Senate for review. However, this bill has stirred considerable turmoil within the Republican Party due to a key detail—the previously promised ban on central bank digital currency (CBDC) was not successfully included, leading to strong dissatisfaction among conservative members of the party.

As early as July this year, House Republican leaders reached an important agreement with hardliners in the party, explicitly stating that the CBDC ban would be included in the annual "National Defense Authorization Act". The earlier version of the ban was quite strict, prohibiting the Federal Reserve from conducting any testing, research, development, or issuance activities related to digital currency, thus fundamentally limiting the Federal Reserve's exploration in the digital currency field; it also prohibited the Federal Reserve from providing financial products or services directly to individuals, aiming to maintain the traditional financial landscape and prevent unfair competition arising from the Federal Reserve's unique position.

Conservatives are extremely outraged that this ban was not included. They uphold a small government philosophy, fearing that the issuance of CBDC by the Federal Reserve would further expand government financial control, infringing on individual privacy and freedom. At the same time, they have close ties with traditional financial institutions and fear that CBDC could disrupt traditional business and impact the stability of the financial industry.

This incident reflects the divisions within the Republican Party regarding financial policy. Conservatives insist on strict limitations, while some factions may consider the global trend of digital currency development and the international financial position of the U.S., unwilling to completely block the Federal Reserve's exploration path. Moving forward, conservatives are unlikely to back down easily, and the negotiations surrounding this ban during the Senate review are expected to become even more intense, drawing increasing attention to the U.S. direction on CBDC policy.

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Sister Mei's BTC~ETH Market Analysis

1. BTC weekly chart shows an upper shadow this week, indicating a risk of a bearish close, with bullish rebounds under pressure; this week, attention is on whether it can return above the descending trend line; the daily BTC chart maintains the lower boundary of the range: 88000, upper boundary: 94000, only breaking through 94000 can hope to challenge the 97000 FVG gap, MACD green bars are shrinking, RSI has a death cross risk, and there is short-term pullback pressure; short-term focus is on the 4-hour chart, with short-term opportunities to seize;

2. In terms of short-term analysis, at the 4-hour level, the larger timeframe is in an upward oscillation channel, while the smaller timeframe forms a descending structure of M-top, with a target downside around 88500 (also the previous low support area). If the low support area of 87500-88500 is broken, watch for support around 86500 near the lower track of the larger upward channel that must not be effectively broken; if broken, the upward oscillation channel may end.

3. ETH has a long upper shadow this week, retreating after touching the M-top neck line at 3450; the weekly chart failed to break the descending channel, and the trend has weakened; the daily chart retreated after touching the upper boundary of the ascending channel, breaking the middle line and the descending trend line; current focus is on the key support zone: 3120–3160 (overlap of the lower track of the channel + W bottom neck line), if the support holds, there is still hope to challenge the upper boundary of 3600 + FVG gap, otherwise, the trend weakens; the 4-hour attempt to break the upper boundary failed, entering a bearish structure on AMD;

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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Night: Risk Management and Strategy Response in Contract Trading

Beijing time, December 11, 2025, at 3:00 AM, the global financial market will face a critical moment—the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for December, followed by a press conference held by Chairman Powell. In the current market environment, where dramatic fluctuations resembling 'up and down spikes' frequently occur, this meeting is likely to trigger a new round of market turbulence, making risk management particularly important for contract traders.

Recently, market volatility has intensified, with bulls and bears frequently battling at key price levels. The liquidation heat map shows that a large amount of capital is concentrated near key resistance and support levels. In this situation, any unexpected policy signal could become the catalyst for a market breakout. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting, but internal disagreements over the rate cut, Powell's statements, and the subsequent interest rate path's 'dot plot' could all become key factors influencing market sentiment.

For contract traders, the wisest strategy at present is to take appropriate profits while retaining positions to cope with potential volatility. A staggered profit-taking approach can be adopted, where part of the position is closed to lock in profits when the price reaches the expected profit target, while the remaining position is handled flexibly based on subsequent market conditions. At the same time, setting reasonable stop-loss points is crucial to avoid excessive losses due to sudden market reversals.

In addition, traders should closely monitor every detail in Powell's speech, especially hints regarding the future direction of monetary policy. If he signals a hawkish stance, the market may quickly adjust expectations, leading to sharp price fluctuations; conversely, if the speech leans dovish, it may instill confidence in the market, pushing prices further upward. On this uncertain night, staying calm and strictly adhering to risk management strategies will be the winning formula for contract traders to cope with market fluctuations.

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Sister Mei BTC~ETH Analysis

1. BTC weekly 3 consecutive positives, bullish structure is clear; this week closes positive, next week likely to break the descending trend line; daily breaks the triangle consolidation and descending trend line, but encounters resistance at 94,000 and falls back; currently confirming support on the trend line, effective pullback will lead to further upward movement; daily indicators MACD and RSI golden cross, pointing to continued upward movement; pay attention to the 4-hour level for short-term opportunities;

2. In terms of short-term, at the 4-hour level, the larger scale is in a volatile upward channel, while the smaller scale breaks the downward channel, forming a bullish flag, with a target position around 97000 (also the upper pressure zone of the upward channel)
If the neckline position of the triple bottom near 94000 breaks, it may form a triple bottom, with target areas at 104000-106000 (also the pressure position where it started to fall)
If there is a pullback, focus on the main upward channel's middle track support near 91500 and the lower track near 86500 that cannot be effectively broken;

3. ETH weekly 3 consecutive positives, breaks the descending channel, if the pullback does not break, it will continue to look for a sustained rebound structure; daily 4 consecutive positives + volume breakout of the descending trend line, forming a W bottom, target 3630 (0.5–0.618 pressure); 4-hour runs within the rising channel, stabilizing in the middle track, expected to challenge the upper track of the channel at 3550–3600;

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Wintermute's Latest Market Insights: New Trends Hidden in the Fluctuating Crypto Market

Wintermute's latest market update shows that the crypto market has recently exhibited a more resilient range-bound fluctuation. There has been a significant change in capital flow, concentrating back to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two major cryptocurrencies, indicating market participants' preference for core assets.

From the perspective of market participant structure, both retail and institutional investors show a bullish attitude, although they are cautious in their allocations, adopting low-leverage strategies. The BTC price is currently back to around $92,000, with a total market capitalization of approximately $3.25 trillion. Despite the market facing unexpected situations last week due to a series of liquidation events, where BTC plummeted by about $4,000 within an hour, triggering approximately $2 billion in liquidations, the market demonstrated strong resilience, quickly absorbing selling pressure and not continuing the downward trend.

In terms of market indicators, the basis between futures and spot prices has compressed, and the implied volatility at year-end is relatively high. This suggests that market capital is currently in a wait-and-see state, awaiting clear signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and macroeconomic developments. Against this backdrop, investors' strategy choices are also more conservative, leaning towards Delta-neutral and Carry strategies, rather than chasing directional opportunities in altcoins.

Overall, while there are some volatility factors present in the current crypto market, the overall range-bound pattern has not changed. As the market awaits further clarity on the macro environment, adjustments in capital flow and investor strategies will have a significant impact on future market trends. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and cautiously formulate investment strategies to respond to potential market changes.

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Analysis of ETH Short Contract Strategy

This time, a short contract strategy for ETH is formulated. In the current market environment, while ETH has certain support, upward pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Both technical and fundamental analysis have released short-term pullback signals, hence the choice to go short.

In terms of specific operations, the entry point is set in the range of 3100 - 3110. This area is a key resistance level that ETH has tested multiple times recently but has not been able to effectively break through. Entering short at this position allows for a relatively reasonable cost layout for short positions.

To control risk, the stop-loss point is set at 3168. If the ETH price unexpectedly breaks above this point, it indicates strong short-term upward momentum, breaking the short logic; timely stop-loss can prevent further losses.

The take-profit point is set at 3050-2995. From a technical analysis perspective, this position is an important support area for ETH in the past. When the price pulls back to this level, it is highly likely to encounter strong buying support, leading to a rebound. Setting take-profit here can both lock in some profits and retain flexibility to adjust strategies based on subsequent market trends. Close attention must be paid to market dynamics, and strategies should be adjusted promptly based on actual situations.

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Sister Mei's BTC Market Analysis

1. BTC weekly chart is still in a horizontal rectangular consolidation, with key resistance at the descending trend line (approximately 92,500–93,000) and key support at the lower Bollinger Band at 88,000; the daily chart is running within a triangular consolidation range, breaking above the triangle's upper edge (Bollinger upper band), target zone 96,000–100,000 (including FVG gap + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618). If it breaks below the triangle's lower edge (Bollinger middle band), it will continue to oscillate within the range, waiting for the next directional choice; daily indicators MACD and RSI show a golden cross, indicating a continuation of the upward trend; for the short term, focus on the 4-hour chart, short-term opportunities are to act cautiously;

2. In the short term, on the 4-hour level, the overall direction is in a fluctuating upward channel, but the recent trend has formed a downward channel. If the upper edge of the downward channel around 92000 (also the middle line of the upward channel) breaks, it is expected to form a bullish flag pattern, with the target around 97000 (also the upper resistance zone of the upward channel). If a pullback occurs, watch for support near the lower edge of the upward channel around 86500 that cannot be effectively broken; if it breaks, it may lead to a larger downward flag pattern;

3. SUI Grayscale Submission SUI ETF (positive expectation), weekly chart breaks the descending channel, 3 consecutive bullish candles, with key resistance at 2 dollars (M top neckline + FVG gap). The daily chart shows a successful retest after breaking the W-bottom, leaning towards a fluctuating upward trend; on the 4-hour structure, the 4-hour chart is still in the rebound phase of the downward channel, focusing on the breakthrough of the 1.63 resistance, which may lead to a flag pattern upward;

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The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut ignites hopes for a broad market rally.

On December 8, BlockBeats reported that Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia injected a dose of 'stimulant' into the financial market. He pointed out that this week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the resumption of balance sheet expansion will bring tense liquidity back to normal. Moreover, the market may even welcome a broad rally this week or even this month, covering fields such as U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals.

Banmuxia is not speaking without evidence; he quoted content from his article published on November 11. The article mentioned that the Federal Reserve will very likely stop reducing its balance sheet in December and may start the expansion process, at which point liquidity will return to a normal track, a scenario similar to October 2019. The real moment of substantial liquidity injection may have to wait until May next year when Trump takes control of the Federal Reserve, at which point the large-scale liquidity injection of March 2020 may reoccur.

For investors, this news undoubtedly brings new expectations. In an environment of tight liquidity, the prices of various assets are suppressed, and market confidence is severely impacted. Once liquidity returns to normal, funds will flood into the market like fresh water, driving up the prices of various assets.

However, the market is always full of uncertainty. Despite optimistic predictions from analysts, the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies may still be influenced by various factors. While investors look forward to a broad rally, they must also remain rational and cautious, closely monitoring policy dynamics and market changes, and做好风险防控，以免在市场的波动中遭受损失。毕竟，在金融市场中，机遇与风险总是并存。

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