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Crash Warning: 76% chance of igniting a 14 trillion 'bomb', have you bottomed out your $BTC ?

This morning BTC fell below 86000, do you think it was just a routine sell-off? I was sweating cold while staring at the screen——because of one number: 76%. The market bets that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike probability in December has soared to 76%, reaching 90% in January. This is not just an interest rate hike; it's a fuse to ignite a global 14 trillion yen carry trade!

For decades, the almost zero-interest yen has been borrowed, converted into dollars, and poured into U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Once Japan raises rates, a massive amount of capital will instantly flow back to close positions. The result? BTC will bear the brunt. Look at the data: BTC plummeted over 20% in a single month, with $3.5 billion flowing out of ETFs, and over $400 million in long positions evaporated overnight. The market is as fragile as paper.

Don't forget the Federal Reserve! Powell won’t talk about policy tonight, which is even scarier—silent periods are often the calm before the storm. If Japan tightens and the U.S. doesn't ease, BTC will face a 'double whammy'.

Take a look at BNB, it's fallen to a point that makes you want to cry. The new official, Lina, has parachuted in as the growth director of BSC, but the retail investors are almost all gone, what will drive growth? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, and the once-popular penguin has tragically turned into a 'fallen penguin'. But don’t rush, the most panicked are not you—but the new officials and exchanges. Market rescue? Perhaps it’s already on the way.

Remember: Carry trade liquidation is a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan raises rates in 2024, BTC will reach a new high in three months. Key points to watch: the mid-December meeting of the Bank of Japan and the Fed's dot plot. Don’t rush to go all in, control your positions, and survive to benefit from the next rebound.

So, today do you dare to bottom out?
#鲍威尔说了什么 #日本央行加息

$ETH $BNB
This week there are many hot topics, unemployment rate, interest rate hikes,,,,,,,
#美联储降息 #美国宏观经济数据上链 #加息预期

$ETH $BNB
Mr. Jin is live, keep the momentum going, continue to build
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

$ETH $BNB
The market should still fall, and it may even drop below the previous low
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

$ETH $BNB $BTC
The weekend has no market activity, waiting for next week
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹

$ETH
The boots hit the ground, causing a violent shake, indeed hawkish
#美联储FOMC会议 #ETH走势分析

$ETH
Tonight at 3 AM, friends, let's not miss each other, directly hitting the Federal Reserve site
#美联储FOMC会议

$ETH
Come on, let's chat about Powell's speech tonight
#加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐

$ETH

Tonight's interest rate cut may be a “hawkish trap”! The brutal truth behind the 90% probability🔥

Don't celebrate too early—do you think an interest rate cut is a signal for a party? Wrong, this time it might be a pit dug for you by the Federal Reserve!
The market has already gone crazy betting: CME data shows the probability of a rate cut in December soaring to nearly 90%, almost a sure thing. But the truth is, this rate cut is not a gift; it feels more like a “sugar-coated poison.” Why? Because the Federal Reserve is likely to be “blindly cutting” this time!
📉 Key data (December employment, CPI) won’t be released until January, meaning tonight's decision is purely based on “gut feeling.” What if January's data contradicts it—inflation rebounds, the economy remains hot—then the Federal Reserve might immediately change its stance: only cut this once, and then hold firm for a year and a half!

This is the real “hawkish trap”:
✅ Superficially dovish (rate cut), but actually tightening (may remain inactive afterwards)
✅ Powell's position is unstable, the new chairman could completely change the pace
✅ Internal opinions are divided, the dot plot is a mess, and the future path is full of fog

For the market, the benefits of a rate cut have long been exhausted, and every step forward is a minefield:

· Strong economy → inflation rebounds → stops cutting rates
· Weak economy → recession panic → capital fleeing

Tonight's focus is not really on “cutting or not,” but on how Powell will make his case. Is he hinting “just this once, don’t think too much,” or is he opening the door for continuous rate cuts?

History tells us: sudden rate cuts in December are often because the economy really can’t hold up anymore.

So don’t just get carried away, be careful after dawn—this is just the beginning of a tough battle.
🔥🔥🔥Friends, prepare your chips, once the results come out, you can appropriately layout a little small💕milk💕dog, believe you won’t be disappointed👍👍👍
Do you think this rate cut is a “real market rescue” or a “fake move”?
Betting on “bullish celebration” or “good news has been exhausted”? Let’s guess directly in the comments!
👇
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场反弹

$ETH
UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will inject $6.9 trillion to increase market liquidity, and good times may not be far away.
One can appropriately allocate a bit to Musk's little ~~ puppy, even if it's 100U, why not gamble for a better future, continuous construction 🚀🚀🚀

$ETH The subsequent market may still have another wave of orders. Let's wait until the 19th after Japan's interest rate hike. Be prepared with ammunition
#美联储重启降息步伐 #日本加息

$ETH
Welcome to the live broadcast, let's talk about the future trends
#ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

$ETH Sideways is just boring, feel free to come in and chat #ETH走势分析 #特朗普加密新政

Sister, awesome, is a role model for all of us to learn from 👍👍

$ETH
She truly deserves to be the top sister, she really has great charisma.

$ETH
Ethereum chain upgrade, just wait patiently.

$ETH It's amazing, there is a translator, come in and have a look oh #美联储重启降息步伐

Important Important

$ETH $BNB Little days to raise interest rates? #ETH巨鲸增持 #加密市场回调