瓦达西瓦刘
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From a historical perspective, after Japan exits negative interest rates in 2024, the cryptocurrency market experienced a situation of 'short-term pressure and medium-term strength.' In the long run, the price of Bitcoin is more dependent on global macro liquidity and its own supply and demand narrative.
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· US Treasuries: The long-term bond yields, which are more sensitive to interest rate policies, have risen significantly (bond prices have fallen), indicating that the market is adjusting its expectations for future funding costs.
· Crude Oil: The main reason for the decline is less related to economic outlook, primarily driven by ongoing concerns over industry-specific oversupply dominating market sentiment.
· Crude Oil: The main reason for the decline is less related to economic outlook, primarily driven by ongoing concerns over industry-specific oversupply dominating market sentiment.
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May further boost the market; conversely, if it conveys a 'hawkish' signal (such as implying that the rate cut cycle may slow down), it may trigger volatility.
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Recently, the strong interest rate hike expectations of the Bank of Japan have indeed become a core macro factor influencing the cryptocurrency market, particularly the price fluctuations of Bitcoin. Its impact mainly transmits through a key financial operation - 'Yen carry trade'.
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· Path: Direct injection of liquidity into the financial system ("water release") → Abundant liquidity seeks high-return assets → Bitcoin and others are seen as benefiting from inflation and dollar depreciation → Generally favorable for Bitcoin.
· Next Chairman: Dovish (e.g., Kevin Hassett)
· Path: The market anticipates strong expectations of "continuous interest rate cuts" and "looser regulation" → Changes in the valuation logic of risk assets → Creates medium to long-term structural benefits for the cryptocurrency industry.
· Next Chairman: Dovish (e.g., Kevin Hassett)
· Path: The market anticipates strong expectations of "continuous interest rate cuts" and "looser regulation" → Changes in the valuation logic of risk assets → Creates medium to long-term structural benefits for the cryptocurrency industry.
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The price of tokens traded for points may increase, and operational costs will rise. The cost of trading wear still exists, and if returns do not meet expectations, the cost-effectiveness of participation significantly decreases.
Airdrop return expectations for new projects may have higher valuations upon launch, raising airdrop return expectations. Market valuations are under pressure, and the risk of airdrop tokens breaking after listing increases.
Airdrop return expectations for new projects may have higher valuations upon launch, raising airdrop return expectations. Market valuations are under pressure, and the risk of airdrop tokens breaking after listing increases.
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The platform rules are not set in stone. For example, Binance has modified its rules to prohibit wash trading between Alpha token pairs to earn points, which directly leads to increased trading friction (cost) for users.
🚨 Market manipulation and the risk of a crash. Some tokens on Alpha have weak liquidity, and historically there have been events where a single large holder's massive sell-off triggered flash crashes of tokens (such as ZKJ, KOGE), resulting in significant losses for many users.
🚨 Market manipulation and the risk of a crash. Some tokens on Alpha have weak liquidity, and historically there have been events where a single large holder's massive sell-off triggered flash crashes of tokens (such as ZKJ, KOGE), resulting in significant losses for many users.
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Beware of high volatility and high risk: especially Meme coins, whose prices fluctuate wildly. For example, PIPPIN surged by 80% while
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Ecological Prosperity: Strong technological appeal has attracted numerous developers. Its dApp ecosystem covers multiple fields including DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). For example, Visa chose to expand its USDC stablecoin settlement on Solana because of its high throughput and low cost advantages in payment scenarios.
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Options market $75,000 Some analysts believe that if the valuation volatility of tech stocks triggers a chain reaction, Bitcoin could drop to $75,000, but it is expected to rebound quickly.
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Market sentiment generally leans cautious, but there are also some noteworthy signals.
· Pessimistic expectations and key levels: Currently, options market data shows that traders are preparing for further declines in Bitcoin, with $85,000** and **$82,000 being the key lower price levels to watch. Some analysts even believe that if tech stock valuations become more volatile, Bitcoin may drop to $75,000.
· A glimmer of positive signs: Despite the market panic, some data may indicate a turning point.
· Pessimistic expectations and key levels: Currently, options market data shows that traders are preparing for further declines in Bitcoin, with $85,000** and **$82,000 being the key lower price levels to watch. Some analysts even believe that if tech stock valuations become more volatile, Bitcoin may drop to $75,000.
· A glimmer of positive signs: Despite the market panic, some data may indicate a turning point.
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Medium to long term (2026 and beyond) $350+ (part of the views) based on expectations of broader market adoption and ecosystem expansion. Please note that this forecast carries a high level of uncertainty.
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Macroeconomics and Federal Reserve Policy (Interest Rate Cut Cycle, Liquidity Expectations) Long-term Benefits: If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, global liquidity is expected to improve, which would be beneficial for crypto assets like BNB.
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Who made you buy it?
The official explanation for $PLANCK , what does that mean for the high price we paid?
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Maintain a cautiously optimistic long-term perspective: Despite short-term volatility, the gradual clarity of the regulatory framework and the continuous influx of institutional capital are laying a more solid foundation for the long-term development of cryptocurrencies.
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· The long-term fundamental driving force remains: Many analysts believe that the recent pullback has not changed Bitcoin's long-term upward trend. Its inherent scarcity (halving every four years), increasing institutional adoption (such as spot ETFs and corporate treasury reserves), and recognition as a store of value continue to be the core factors supporting its long-term value.
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Low financing, not much wool
Binance Alpha November 10th airdrop announcement has been released!
JCT is a Layer 2 project focused on verifiable, collaborative, and scalable artificial intelligence services, expected to go live at 6 PM. This cryptocurrency will also launch contracts simultaneously. Its total supply reaches 50 billion, and the president suggests that everyone keep half of their chips to cope with contract pump — after all, most cryptocurrencies that launch contracts on Alpha tend to pump first and then dump.
Subsequently, the president will update the list of cryptocurrencies with low score loss.
Recently, many people have experienced account bans without reason, and even those who have not engaged in any violations have not been spared. This is due to the platform's recent crackdown on studios, leading to frequent mistaken bans, so everyone should be patient and hang in there. The Alpha event is likely to end in December, so everyone must hold their posts till the end. After Alpha concludes, there will definitely be new project activities launched, and I will inform everyone of any high-quality new projects as soon as possible. Brothers who trade can join the community! Brothers who farm can just join the airdrop group!
JCT is a Layer 2 project focused on verifiable, collaborative, and scalable artificial intelligence services, expected to go live at 6 PM. This cryptocurrency will also launch contracts simultaneously. Its total supply reaches 50 billion, and the president suggests that everyone keep half of their chips to cope with contract pump — after all, most cryptocurrencies that launch contracts on Alpha tend to pump first and then dump.
Subsequently, the president will update the list of cryptocurrencies with low score loss.
Recently, many people have experienced account bans without reason, and even those who have not engaged in any violations have not been spared. This is due to the platform's recent crackdown on studios, leading to frequent mistaken bans, so everyone should be patient and hang in there. The Alpha event is likely to end in December, so everyone must hold their posts till the end. After Alpha concludes, there will definitely be new project activities launched, and I will inform everyone of any high-quality new projects as soon as possible. Brothers who trade can join the community! Brothers who farm can just join the airdrop group!
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Yesterday was not
[November 9 Airdrop Analysis Prediction] Today's Airdrop
📊 Two-day airdrop comparison analysis
• Predicted threshold: Referencing recent UAI, LONG, and other projects, the initial threshold is likely 220-230 points. If the reward pool is not exhausted, it will drop by 5 points every 5 minutes (minimum could fall to 180-200 points);
🎯 In-depth project analysis
Today's TIMI: The game is generally a bit trivial
· Financing of $6 million, limited scale
· The gaming track has performed mediocre recently
· Suggestion: Points > 240 can be waived, < 230 can participate
Tomorrow's JCT: Has potential mid-level
· Specific information to be announced by the official
· From the schedule, quality is better than today
· Suggestion: Everyone should focus on preparing for the target
• Predicted threshold: Referencing recent UAI, LONG, and other projects, the initial threshold is likely 220-230 points. If the reward pool is not exhausted, it will drop by 5 points every 5 minutes (minimum could fall to 180-200 points);
🎯 In-depth project analysis
Today's TIMI: The game is generally a bit trivial
· Financing of $6 million, limited scale
· The gaming track has performed mediocre recently
· Suggestion: Points > 240 can be waived, < 230 can participate
Tomorrow's JCT: Has potential mid-level
· Specific information to be announced by the official
· From the schedule, quality is better than today
· Suggestion: Everyone should focus on preparing for the target
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130,000 pieces against the heavens
$ICP $FIL $MMT
The world is just a huge makeshift theater.
Ordinary people like us save tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars, and we have to write down the mnemonic phrases on steel plates and put them in fireproof safes; while Cambodia's top scammer Chen Zhi holds 130,000 BTC—about 15 billion dollars—he actually just threw the private key into the old system of the mining pool, even too lazy to do the basic operations like BIP-39 mnemonic phrases, hardware wallets, and multi-signature. As a result, when U.S. law enforcement took action, the wallet was pried open on the spot.
Note that this pot does not blame the Bitcoin protocol; it is purely a “tycoon” lacking security awareness.
Of course, some speculate that he may not want to exchange but dare not: the amount is too large, and the on-chain traces are too heavy; moving it could attract the attention of the entire network.
For retail investors, there is no need to panic—our volume is still not enough for a “national-level” cracking package. Just remember one thing: once the funds scale up, definitely use a hardware wallet; also, regularly change addresses and clear authorizations for hot wallets.
As for whether “quantum computers will turn private keys into dust in an instant,” when that day comes, the first to collapse will be the traditional banking payment system; the crypto world will also upgrade its cryptographic suite, and mainstream public chains have already left a backup plan in their roadmap.
#加密立法新纪元 #加密市场回调 #美国ADP数据超预期 #比特币
The world is just a huge makeshift theater.
Ordinary people like us save tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars, and we have to write down the mnemonic phrases on steel plates and put them in fireproof safes; while Cambodia's top scammer Chen Zhi holds 130,000 BTC—about 15 billion dollars—he actually just threw the private key into the old system of the mining pool, even too lazy to do the basic operations like BIP-39 mnemonic phrases, hardware wallets, and multi-signature. As a result, when U.S. law enforcement took action, the wallet was pried open on the spot.
Note that this pot does not blame the Bitcoin protocol; it is purely a “tycoon” lacking security awareness.
Of course, some speculate that he may not want to exchange but dare not: the amount is too large, and the on-chain traces are too heavy; moving it could attract the attention of the entire network.
For retail investors, there is no need to panic—our volume is still not enough for a “national-level” cracking package. Just remember one thing: once the funds scale up, definitely use a hardware wallet; also, regularly change addresses and clear authorizations for hot wallets.
As for whether “quantum computers will turn private keys into dust in an instant,” when that day comes, the first to collapse will be the traditional banking payment system; the crypto world will also upgrade its cryptographic suite, and mainstream public chains have already left a backup plan in their roadmap.
#加密立法新纪元 #加密市场回调 #美国ADP数据超预期 #比特币
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What is the idea?
I originally thought that many people in the crypto space simply didn't understand trading, but now I realize I was wrong: they don't not understand trading, they just treat the crypto space as a casino.
I said that $ASTER could reach 20U in 1 year and 200U in 7 years, this is the DEX track's BNB, absolutely the leader.
Many people say I am delusional.
The logic used to refute me is surprisingly consistent: a total supply of 8 billion, approaching a market value of 90 billion, if it increases by 20 times, that would be 180 billion, and if it increases by 200 times, that would be 1.8 trillion.
At 20U each, it will surpass $BNB , and at 200U it will almost catch up to BTC, what makes ASTER capable of this?
I really admire these older brothers, their math is really good, they analyze the candlestick charts very smoothly, various technical strategies, it’s truly remarkable……
The only downside is…… they never pay attention to the basic information of the tokens.
Since S2, ASTER has started a "daily buyback" model, with an average daily buyback of over 1 million tokens.
This means that in the next 9 months, ASTER's official minimum buyback will be 30 million tokens each month.
In 10 months, at the very least, they will buy back 300 million tokens.
Starting from S3, ASTER initiated a destruction mechanism, destroying 50% of the buybacks.
In other words: by the end of the airdrop, the minimum destruction amount will be 150 million tokens.
Note, this is the minimum destruction amount, as for the maximum destruction amount, that is impossible to estimate.
Additionally……
It seems many people haven't realized one thing: the premise for obtaining ASTER for free through the airdrop is having a large amount of holdings.
Those who receive the airdrop are the most determined "bulls".
ASTER is the BNB of DEX, there is no doubt about this, CZ is in charge, with a complete process of buybacks, destruction, and burning.
I originally thought that the limit for ASTER was around 50U, just like the $UNI of Vitalik.
The reason is that I believe that ASTER, managed by CZ, will most likely implement a destruction mechanism after the airdrop, and initiate a trading and burning mechanism after the ASTER ecosystem is perfected.
A dual destruction model can quickly destroy 50% of ASTER, leaving 4 billion.
But ASTER's destruction mechanism came too quickly, destroying at S3, so the burning mechanism should happen after S12.
With such a speed of destruction, the final destruction amount may reach 90%, leaving only 10%, which is 800 million tokens.
800 million ASTER, each worth 200U, with a total market value of 1600U, this is very reasonable.
{future}(UNIUSDT)
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
{spot}(ASTERUSDT)
I said that $ASTER could reach 20U in 1 year and 200U in 7 years, this is the DEX track's BNB, absolutely the leader.
Many people say I am delusional.
The logic used to refute me is surprisingly consistent: a total supply of 8 billion, approaching a market value of 90 billion, if it increases by 20 times, that would be 180 billion, and if it increases by 200 times, that would be 1.8 trillion.
At 20U each, it will surpass $BNB , and at 200U it will almost catch up to BTC, what makes ASTER capable of this?
I really admire these older brothers, their math is really good, they analyze the candlestick charts very smoothly, various technical strategies, it’s truly remarkable……
The only downside is…… they never pay attention to the basic information of the tokens.
Since S2, ASTER has started a "daily buyback" model, with an average daily buyback of over 1 million tokens.
This means that in the next 9 months, ASTER's official minimum buyback will be 30 million tokens each month.
In 10 months, at the very least, they will buy back 300 million tokens.
Starting from S3, ASTER initiated a destruction mechanism, destroying 50% of the buybacks.
In other words: by the end of the airdrop, the minimum destruction amount will be 150 million tokens.
Note, this is the minimum destruction amount, as for the maximum destruction amount, that is impossible to estimate.
Additionally……
It seems many people haven't realized one thing: the premise for obtaining ASTER for free through the airdrop is having a large amount of holdings.
Those who receive the airdrop are the most determined "bulls".
ASTER is the BNB of DEX, there is no doubt about this, CZ is in charge, with a complete process of buybacks, destruction, and burning.
I originally thought that the limit for ASTER was around 50U, just like the $UNI of Vitalik.
The reason is that I believe that ASTER, managed by CZ, will most likely implement a destruction mechanism after the airdrop, and initiate a trading and burning mechanism after the ASTER ecosystem is perfected.
A dual destruction model can quickly destroy 50% of ASTER, leaving 4 billion.
But ASTER's destruction mechanism came too quickly, destroying at S3, so the burning mechanism should happen after S12.
With such a speed of destruction, the final destruction amount may reach 90%, leaving only 10%, which is 800 million tokens.
800 million ASTER, each worth 200U, with a total market value of 1600U, this is very reasonable.
{future}(UNIUSDT)
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
{spot}(ASTERUSDT)
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