加密小蝶

$RIVER Technical Analysis (1H level is bullish, daily is still weak)

K-line Structure

Recently, multiple long lower shadows have appeared, indicating strong buying willingness below

After a sharp rise to 3.52, it quickly fell back, forming a long upper shadow, with obvious short-term selling pressure

Intraday fluctuations have significantly increased, in a high volatility market phase

Technical Indicators

MACD:

1H level DIF / DEA has crossed above the zero line and continues to expand, short-term rebound momentum is still present

The daily line is still below the zero line, and the medium-term trend has not reversed

RSI:

1H RSI(14) is running in the 50–60 range, not entering overbought

Daily RSI ≈ 41.6, medium-term is still weak

EMA:

Price has risen above EMA7 and EMA30

The upper side is significantly suppressed by EMA120, limiting the rebound space

Volume Structure

Key breakout nodes show obvious volume increase

Volume decreases during the pullback phase

The daily line shows increased volume during rises / decreased volume during falls, belonging to a technical rebound volume structure

【Trading Range Reference】

Bullish Layout

Buying Range One: 3
Buying Range Two: 2.95

Bullish Stop Loss: 2.9

Bearish Focus

Selling Range One: 3.25
Selling Range Two: 3.35

Bearish Stop Loss: 3.45

Conclusion

1H Level: The short-term bullish rebound structure is still present

Daily Level: The trend has not reversed, more viewed as a rebound rather than a reversal

In a high volatility phase, it is recommended to trade with light positions + strict stop loss, do not chase the rise

Yesterday's Market Review

BTC

Yesterday, BTC experienced a significant upward “pin bar” movement, quickly piercing through short positions' stop-loss levels before falling back, which is a typical liquidity wash rather than a trend reversal.

On the fundamental side, caution remains, as the daily structure has broken below the original upward channel and is currently in a short-term downward channel, needing to organize and repair through time to gain space.

The weekly trend still maintains a downward structure, with no clear stabilization signals appearing yet.

ETH

ETH followed BTC in synchronized fluctuation and consolidation, with prices also breaking below the ascending channel, shifting to a downward structure in the short term.

The daily level shows a slight head and shoulders pattern, and the space below has not yet been fully released, so it is still treated with an adjustment mindset overall.

Altcoin Market

Altcoins continue to follow mainstream corrections, with overall liquidity remaining weak, and no clear capital inflow signals observed yet.

The threshold for Alpha activity points continues to rise, and related operations have been suspended, waiting to reassess the timing for a restart after rule adjustments.

Intraday Market Analysis

BTC

1H / 4H levels are running below the healthy range, and the daily structure is also weak.

Short-term fluctuations are expected to continue within a range, with significant selling pressure above, making upward breakthroughs difficult.

Support below: 84,000 – 84,500
Resistance above: 88,000 – 88,500

ETH

1H / 4H and daily levels are synchronously weak, with intraday activity primarily focused on consolidation.

Before a significant volume breakthrough of key resistance, rebounds are more of a technical repair.

Support below: 2,750 – 2,800
Resistance above: 2,900 – 2,970

Summary

The current market is primarily focused on digesting previous fluctuations, and the operational mindset should lean towards defense.
Before the trend stabilizes again, patiently waiting for structural confirmation is far more important than aggressive speculation.

The market does not evaluate how much hardship you have endured in the past,
it only measures one thing: whether you now have the ability to produce stable results.

Experience itself does not constitute value,
only validated methodologies constitute value.

If you are talking about:

• How to complete a structural cognitive upgrade
• How to rebuild a trading system after losses
• How to turn random profits into replicable income

Then others will pay serious attention.

But if you only keep going back to hardships, emotions, and grievances,
yet cannot provide decision-making logic, risk control framework, and execution path,
then there is no transferability for the audience.

The key to growth is not "how hard it was for me back then,"

but rather:

• What mistakes I corrected
• What ineffective beliefs I eliminated
• How I make judgments now

What can be reused is called experience; what cannot be reused is merely experience.

So, rather than recording the past,
it is better to dissect the process;
rather than expressing emotions,
it is better to solidify the structure.

This is the most basic principle in trading,
and also the most important one in any growth-oriented path.

The True Power of Low Points

Low points can destroy your inherent ego, allowing you to truly start examining yourself.

When you are in extreme pain, you can enter deep meditation and see yourself clearly.

At this time, everything you fear and feel ashamed of is no longer an obstacle, but rather the soil for new growth.

Don't force yourself to "explode" during low points; the most important thing is to accept your vulnerability.

You don't need to learn new things; just carefully reflect on the past and regain that "God's perspective."

The negative energy of low points is actually a powerful force; transform it, and you will experience a true breakthrough.

Market development is never static.

Volatility is not our enemy; it is actually a necessary component of every healthy market cycle.

Keeping information updated and being clear about your risk tolerance is essential for moving forward steadily amidst change.

After spending a long time in the crypto world, one thing becomes clear:

Opportunities are always present, what is scarce is the ability to make the right choices at critical moments.

Most people don't lose to the market,
but to greed, fear, and their own arrogance.

They always want to rely on a "miraculous operation" to turn things around,
but forget that this is a game of probability, not a miracle factory.

I can survive repeatedly through bull and bear markets, relying on three things:

1. Choosing coins: only follow the consensus of funds

Do not bet on obscure altcoins, do not touch the "next BTC".
Mainstream coins + leading tracks, if the trend hasn't emerged, don't buy even if it's cheap.
Projects without capital entering the market, no matter how good the whitepaper is, are just air.

2. Entry and exit: let the rules make decisions for you

Don't rely on feelings, only look at moving averages and trading volume.
Break below critical moving averages, exit immediately;
if the trend is bad, all good news is just a trap.

3. Take profits and cut losses: stay alive first, then talk about making more

Take profits in batches to lock in gains, enforce hard stops to protect capital.
Holding positions is not a belief, it's a gambler's behavior.

In the end, you will find:

The true opponent in the crypto world is never the big players, not the news, not the market,
but yourself.

Whether you can avoid inflation when making money,
not collapsing when losing money,
leave when you should, wait when you should.

When you stop fantasizing about getting rich,
start respecting probability, executing discipline, and fearing trends —
money will gradually come closer to you.

The crypto world is not about who makes money the fastest,
but about who survives the longest. $BTC $ETH

bonk you just watch politics
pump you just watch community
bsc you just watch Ersheng and the official
okx you just wait for death

Recently, the U.S. banking system has once again become the focus, with increasing market concerns about credit risk. Some argue that cracks are appearing in the financial system, while others insist that the foundation remains solid.

So, what is causing this unrest?

First is the high interest rate environment. Although rising rates benefit savers, they significantly increase the pressure on borrowers. Whether for corporate financing or personal loans, repayment costs are climbing.

Second is the risk in commercial real estate. The popularity of remote and hybrid work has led to a continuous decline in demand for office buildings, with falling rents and rising vacancy rates, putting regional banks at greater default risk.

Third is the burden of household debt. Inflation and high living costs are tightening family finances, with rising delinquency rates posing a potential hazard.


Investors are generally focused on several key questions:

How exposed are large banks to the aforementioned risks?

Are current provisions sufficient to address potential loan losses?

What measures will the Federal Reserve and regulatory agencies take?


As for why this is closely related to the cryptocurrency market—

Whenever signs of tension appear in the traditional financial system, some funds often seek decentralized assets as a form of hedging or diversification. If the credit environment deteriorates further, cryptocurrency assets may see a new wave of capital inflow.


The market is currently in a critical observation period.

Yesterday, $BTC rose to $117,000 as expected, with the upward trend consistent with our judgment. In the short term, there is a possibility of a pullback to $108,000 followed by a rebound to $115,000 on an hourly basis; $ETH also maintains a rebound strategy, focusing on the attacking opportunity around $4,150.


Recently, the market focus remains on Binance and the Base ecosystem. Whether it's Binance's Alpha heat or the Solala sector on Base, funds tend to cluster, with enthusiasm reserved for a few leading projects. Non-mainstream coins without strong themes can only follow passively.


The secondary market is overall weak, with no outstanding breakthroughs. Yesterday, $FLOKI performed mediocrely, while $DOGE and $UNI are still hovering in a narrow range. Today's top gainers, $0G, $OPEN, and $AVNT, are mostly rebound plays from oversold conditions, and their sustainability remains to be observed.

bn today launched the Binance Life contract, adding a Chinese section, has the Chinese style meme finally arrived?

The '9 Major Mindsets of the Poor' researched by Harvard University, hope you don't have:
1. Controlled by Face and Price: Consciously or unconsciously, always being led by external opinions and price tags.
2. Lack of Independent Awareness: Habitually relying on others, lacking the courage to make decisions and bear consequences on your own.
3. Reduced to a Dreamer: Having many ideas but never taking action, always staying in the 'thinking' phase.
4. Habitually Cynical: Being critical of everything, full of negative energy, yet never reflecting on oneself.
5. The Mental 'A Q': Satisfied with the status of 'better than some, worse than others', numbing oneself with the method of spiritual victory.
6. Stubbornly Opinionated, Judging by Feelings: Refusing to learn new knowledge, making judgments solely based on intuition and past experiences.
7. Only Understanding Cost-Cutting, Not Revenue Generation: Everything is based on saving money, yet neglecting the ability to enhance time value and create income.
8. Poverty Stricken, Yet Overindulging Children: Willing to live frugally oneself, but excessively satisfying children materially.
9. Consuming Life in Trivial Matters: Not understanding time management, being entangled in trivial matters all day long, never finding peace.
It can be seen that the real difference lies not in whether one works hard or not, but in the way one works hard.
Most people's efforts rely on the accumulation of time and repetitive labor; while the efforts of the rich are focused on continuously enhancing their core competitiveness and time value.

💥 It's Black Friday again, panic is spreading!


Two regional banks in the United States have successively "blown up," with stock prices plummeting, dragging the entire U.S. banking sector down.

Such events might only create small ripples at ordinary times, but they happened to occur when the market is extremely vulnerable — it's like the roof leaking just when it rains at night.


Investors are already on edge, and now with this additional blow, panic emotions are instantly amplified. The entire market is like a flock of startled birds, flapping around chaotically. Funds begin to withdraw, safe-haven assets are once again heating up, and even the originally stabilized emotions have been completely shattered by this wave of fear.


Black Friday, once again staged.

The fear index soars, safe-haven buying returns, and the market is like a lake stirred by the wind — calm on the surface, but with undercurrents surging beneath.

When will the decline stop
I dare not open my eyes

Since the "cryptocurrency tsunami" on the 11th, the entire market feels like it's been turned upside down. As the tide goes out, everyone realizes — we were all swimming naked.

Altcoins have lost liquidity, like having the last piece of their modesty stripped away, revealing their ugly side.


In the post-deleveraging market, liquidity has completely broken down. The data from the past two days is terrifying — nearly $40 billion in funds have been withdrawn from exchanges, along with over $20 billion in liquidations on the 11th alone. Even if these numbers aren’t completely accurate, they are enough to highlight the problem. Not to mention how many people are watching from the sidelines, hesitant to enter, and many who have already made profits choose to take their gains and quietly exit. Over in the primary market, popular new coins have also noticeably cooled down, resulting in a bleak atmosphere.


Yesterday, Old Bao let us down with a dovish policy, cutting interest rates and halting tapering. Normally, such a significant positive signal would have driven the market up sharply in previous years. But this time, the market hasn't even stirred a ripple. What does this indicate? The main funds are currently on the sidelines, and they may even be secretly picking up cheap chips.


Looking outside, U.S. stocks and the A-share market have started to rebound, while the crypto sector is still gasping for air at the bottom. It feels like the entire market is a patient, supported only by a few big players; otherwise, it would have collapsed long ago. Twitter is filled with complaints, insults, pessimism, and FUD everywhere. Too many have gone bankrupt to zero, and many have lost their composure and simply left the circle.

We retail investors are truly insignificant, disappearing with a gust of wind, at the mercy of others.


The current cryptocurrency space feels like a post-disaster reconstruction. Major exchanges are hastily organizing events, offering subsidies, and distributing relief funds, trying to stabilize confidence and retain customers and market share, so they don't get eliminated in this round of reshuffling.

But I sincerely hope this so-called "reconstruction" doesn’t turn the crypto space into a giant casino and scythe paradise again, but rather genuinely encourages people to stay.


💭 Because confidence is the most precious thing in the cryptocurrency space.

Without confidence, without people, there’s no money.

10/16 Briefing | Don't Let Anxiety Dull Your Passion, After the Abyss, There is Always a Glimmer


Stay calm, do not let temporary irritability and anxiety devour your passion for the market. Yesterday's trough is often the opportunity for a fresh start today.


📉 Market Overview


BTC retested the support level of 110,000 USD


ETH broke below 4,000 USD


Mainstream coins like SOL and BNB also corrected

——— 📢 24-Hour Hot News ———

Coinbase includes BNB in its listing roadmap;


Gold breaks through 4,200 USD/ounce, reaching a new high;

Binance launches a 300 million USD user compensation plan for users whose margin calls were triggered;

He Yi announced that he will personally take over Binance Alpha's risk control;

The Crypto Fear Index fell to 35, the market still leans towards "fear";

The US government holds 324,000 BTC, remaining the world's largest holder;

Japanese regulators introduce new rules to ban insider trading in crypto;

Paxos urgently destroys 300 trillion mis-minted PYUSD;

CZ states: Strong projects will naturally be fought over by CEX for listing, focusing on users is more important than watching competitors;

Tom Lee: Traditional banks should combine blockchain and AI to accelerate digital transformation;

CryptoQuant CEO: Retail participation in the Bitcoin futures market surges, average order amounts continue to decline;

French banking giant ODDO BHF launches euro stablecoin EUROD, officially entering the crypto space;

The dormant LuBian mining pool wallet that has been silent for three years revives, transferring 9,757 BTC to a new address;

Zeta Network Group completes a 230 million USD private placement and supports BTC/SolvBTC payments.

———

Market fluctuations are normal, maintaining rationality is rare.

The abyss is not terrifying; what is terrifying is losing the courage to continue moving forward.

Powell's speech in the early morning released dovish signals, undoubtedly providing the market with a sense of reassurance. He reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve will continue to push forward with the interest rate reduction process and unexpectedly provided forward guidance on possibly ending the balance sheet reduction, bringing a bit of surprise to the market. Currently, the main risks facing the economy are still concentrated in the labor market. Although national non-farm data cannot be obtained due to the U.S. government shutdown, employment conditions in various states can still be tracked, and the overall employment situation is still showing downward pressure.
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks showed a tendency to stop falling and rebound in early morning trading, with two of the three major indexes briefly turning positive. In addition, the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be revealed within this month. Taking one of the current candidates, Bowman, as an example, he has publicly stated that there may be two more interest rate cuts ahead. Regardless of who ultimately takes over, the market generally expects the new Federal Reserve to adopt a faster and more forceful interest rate reduction strategy, which means a series of easing policies may follow.
As long as the recent China-U.S. trade frictions do not escalate further, the global capital markets are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound. With Binance providing $700 million in liquidity support, confidence in the crypto market is gradually being restored, and this funding has indeed alleviated the pressing urgency at the moment. As positive signals continue to be released, the overall market recovery is worth looking forward to.

This round of sharp decline has completely washed out the altcoin field, almost exhausting retail investors' funds, while short sellers have made substantial profits. Especially for the altcoin sector, many investors are beginning to doubt whether this bull market has reached its end. Currently, a large number of retail investors are trapped in the altcoin dilemma, with many having no additional funds to average down, forced to passively accept the market situation and wait for signals of a rebound or even a trend reversal.
Some believe that this bull market may only be a stage for mainstream coins, and the so-called 'altcoin season' has instead become 'altcoin sacrifice.' Although there is hope that rising mainstream coins can drive a recovery in the altcoin sector, altcoins will need substantial positive news to initiate a rally. However, hoping for altcoins to return to the previous cycle's highs may be unrealistic; if they can rise to this year's highs, that would be a commendable performance. The future of altcoins depends more on market opportunities, relying on luck.
If you still hold investable capital, it is recommended to focus on the four core assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB. Currently, the U.S. government shutdown crisis has not been resolved, and the progress of SOL's ETF application will also take time. This price has dipped to around $168, and there is potential for a rebound with a doubling effect; even if it only rises to $260, achieving a 50% return is quite feasible. Compared to the high uncertainty of altcoins, focusing on mainstream assets is clearly a more prudent choice.

Time punishes anxiety, but rewards belief.
Do not give up on the road ahead due to difficulties; view it in the long term, and every step will rise.
The most perilous climb leads to the best views.

Thank you for the National Day gift sent by bn

A relatively safe way to profit in the crypto market:

1️⃣ Obtain airdrops by trading volume and participating in projects like Binance Alpha.

2️⃣ Earn coins through exchange financial products or staking, while also receiving airdrops.

3️⃣ Participate in platform new offerings, such as pre-sales or staking pre-sales.

These three types of activities can be considered ways to steadily grow existing funds.