老王链金术实盘

"Slowing down the rhythm" is essentially an anti-humanity practice.
In the alternating red and green of candlestick charts, veteran traders establish their sense of rhythm through "slowness": slow in entry (carefully selecting signals), slow in holding positions (patiently accompanying), slow in drawdowns (accepting losses). It is precisely because of this "slowness" that market noise is filtered out, capital is protected, and ultimately leads to a long-term stable and "fast" growth of account net value.

As the old saying goes: "Sharpening the knife does not delay the work of cutting firewood"; in trading, "slowness" is the real "fast".

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【2025-12-17】09:00

【Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】Short-term Version
**Variety: ETH/USDT (Ethereum)**
1. Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)
- Current Price ≈ 2,948.7 USD
- EMA20 ≈ 2,950.31, EMA50 ≈ 2,987.88 (Price < EMA20 < EMA50)
- MACD: DIF -9.21, DEA -15.75, MACD 6.53 (Green bars have appeared after the death cross and continue to enlarge, strong bearish momentum)
- Price is in a clear downward channel, recent high of 3,177 has broken previous low support of 2,870
- **Direction Determination**: **Bearish Direction** (satisfying Price < EMA20 < EMA50 and MACD green bars continue to enlarge after the death cross)
- Only short positions are allowed, strictly prohibiting counter-trend long positions.

2. Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)
- Price oscillates downward in the range of 2,870-3,000, recently showing a slight rebound before being blocked and falling again
- 5-minute chart shows a rebound to near EMA20/EMA50 (around 2,950-2,960) under pressure, forming a potential **Shooting Star/Engulfing Pattern** (long upper shadow, weak rebound)
- **Preferred Entry**: Bearish direction, enter on a rebound
- **Entry Point**: Short when price rebounds to the 2,950-2,960 area (EMA20/EMA50 resistance area) and is blocked and falls back
- Current price of 2,948 has started to probe lower, can try shorting with a small position near 2,950, confirm volume increase after the drop to add to the position
- Secondary Option: If the recent low near 2,918 is broken, confirm adding to shorts if the rebound does not exceed 2,920-2,930

$ETH
3. Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)
- **Stop Loss**: Recent swing high ≈ 2,966-2,970 (or 20-30 USD above entry point), fixed risk of 1.5% of principal per trade
- **Take Profit**:
- Risk-Reward Ratio ≥ 2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exits at 2R (for example, if entry is 2,950 and stop loss is 2,970, then R=20 USD, first TP 2,910)
- Remaining 50% target Fibonacci extension (expansion from recent high of 3,177 to low of 2,870, potential targets at 1.272/1.618 levels ≈ 2,850-2,800, or even lower at 2,700 area)

**Overall Suggestion**: Strictly follow bearish direction, prioritize shorting when rebounding and blocked in the 2,950-2,960 pressure area, low risk and high probability. Currently starting to pull back, can test entry with a small position, wait for K-line pattern + volume confirmation before adding to position. Avoid any long positions and be wary of short-term false rebounds.

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【2025-12-17】

**BTCUSDT：【Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】Short-term Version**

1. Overall Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)
- Current Price ≈ 87,400 USD
- EMA20 ≈ 87,581, EMA50 ≈ 87,619 (Price < EMA20 < EMA50)
- MACD: DIF -73.18, DEA -41.89, MACD -31.29 (Negative value, green bars continue after death cross)
- **Direction Determination**: **Bearish Direction** (Price < EMA20 < EMA50, and MACD death cross followed by green bars)
- Only short positions allowed, no long positions against the trend.

2. Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)
- Price oscillates downwards in the 87,000-88,000 range, recently rebounding to near EMA20/EMA50 (around 87,500-87,600).
- Recent candlesticks show a rebound that faces resistance and falls back, forming a potential **Bearish Engulfing/Shooting Star Pattern** (weak rebound, green bars amplified).
- **Preferred Entry**: Bearish direction, enter on the rebound pullback.
- **Entry Point**: Short when rebounding to the 87,500-87,600 range (near EMA20/EMA50) and facing resistance.
- Alternative: If it breaks below the recent low near 85,073, confirm adding short on pullback.

3. Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)
- **Stop Loss**: Recent swing high ≈ 87,980-88,000 (or 100-200 points above 87,600), each trade risk fixed at 1.5% of principal.
- **Take Profit**:
- Risk-Reward Ratio ≥ 2:1
- First Take Profit: Exit 50% of the position at 2R (for example, if entering at 87,500, stop loss at 87,800 then R=300 points, first TP at 86,900)
- Remaining 50% target Fibonacci extension at 1.272/1.618 (potential target 85,000 or lower, such as 84,000-85,000 range)

4. Additional Scoring/Filtering Rules
- If the rebound enters the Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 golden zone (calculated from the recent high, around 87,200-87,800), confirm the pattern and you can add 1x position (total risk ≤ 3%).
- Recent volume during the rebound has not significantly increased, prioritize waiting for pattern + volume confirmation.
- Currently not a weekend, no major events, normal operations.

**Overall Recommendation**: Strictly follow the bearish direction, wait for the 5-minute chart rebound to the EMA zone facing resistance to short, low risk high probability. Wait for clear signals, avoid chasing trades. $BTC

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Trading is considered one of the most difficult professions to succeed in the world, but it is indeed a field with a low threshold and extremely low success rate, challenging in terms of cognition, mindset, and discipline.

Its difficulties focus on three points: first, the randomness and uncertainty of the market, where no strategy can guarantee 100% profit; second, human weaknesses, where greed and fear can easily lead one to break established trading rules; third, the need for long-term accumulation of professional skills, covering multiple dimensions such as technical analysis, risk management, and capital management, all of which are indispensable.

Many high-difficulty professions (such as top researchers and surgeons) can likely reach the industry passing line through time and experience accumulation, but in trading, even if one invests a lot of time, it is possible to lose everything due to a single uncontrollable operation.

【2025-12-16】
【ETH/USDT Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】Short-term Version

**Overall Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)**：
Bearish Direction (Only Short)
- Price ≈2,945 < EMA20 (3,005) < EMA50 (3,058)
- EMA20 and EMA50 are almost parallel and downward, price continues to operate below both EMAs
- MACD Dead Cross with continuous green bars (MACD: -7.84, bar value negative)
Overall showing a slow downward trend, strictly only short operations allowed, no counter-trend longs permitted.

**Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)**：
Current price ≈2,943, slightly rebounding above the recent low of 2,890, but has not effectively broken through EMA20/EMA50 (around 2,953 zone).
Preferred Rebound Short (Low Risk):
- Price rebounds close to EMA20 (~2,953) or EMA50 (~2,954) or previous resistance level (~3,000-3,050 zone)
- Wait for confirmation of shooting star, evening star, long upper shadow candlestick, bearish engulfing or bearish engulfing pattern
- If accompanied by increased trading volume, higher priority

Secondary Breakthrough Short (Trend Following):
- If breaking below recent low of 2,890.51 → Enter short after confirming rebound does not break that level

Current 5-minute chart rebound strength is limited, no clear bearish pattern, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to the 2,950-2,970 zone to appear reversal candlestick before entering short.

**Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)**：
- Stop Loss: Recent swing high (e.g., 20-50 points above the rebound high, or 3,000-3,050 zone)
- Fixed risk per trade 1.5% of principal
- Take Profit: Profit/Loss Ratio ≥2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exit at 2R
- Remaining 50% hold for Fibonacci extension levels (1.272/1.618, calculated from recent high of 3,177, potential target below 2,700-2,550 zone)

**Bonus/Filters**：
- If entering in the Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 retracement zone (calculated from drop of 3,177-2,890, golden zone approximately 2,980-3,060), can add 1x position (total risk ≤3%)
- Priority on increased trading volume + confirmation of bearish pattern
- Currently not before weekends/major events, normal operations allowed

**Summary**：Clear bearish trend, short-term bias weakly fluctuating. Observe or wait for the 5-minute chart to rebound to the EMA zone to confirm reversal pattern before shorting. Strict risk control, do not force open positions without clear signals. $ETH

【2025-12-16】Short-term
【BTC/USDT Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】

**Overall Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)**：
Bearish direction (only short)
- Price ≈85,913 < EMA20 (87,170) < EMA50 (88,356)
- MACD death cross followed by continuous green bars (MACD: -125.8, bars are negative and expanding trend)
Overall showing a downward trend, EMA arranged downwards, price operating below EMA. Strictly only operate in the bearish direction, no counter-trend long allowed.

**Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)**：
Current price ≈85,918, slightly rebounding above the low point of 85,073, but has not broken EMA20/50 (86,050/86,114).
Preferred rebounding entry for shorts (low risk):
- Price rebounds close to EMA20 (~86,050) or previous resistance level (~86,800-87,800 area)
- Wait for confirmation with shooting star, shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish engulfing pattern
- If volume increases accompanied by bearish pattern, higher priority

Alternative breakout entry for shorts (trend chasing):
- If it breaks below the recent low of 85,073 → enter short after confirming that the rebound does not break

Currently no clear entry pattern, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to the 86,000-86,500 area to see a reversal candlestick to enter short.

**Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)**：
- Stop loss: recent swing high (for example, above the rebound high by 50-100 points, or in the 86,800-87,000 area)
- Each trade risk fixed at 1.5% of capital
- Take profit: profit/loss ratio ≥2:1
- First take profit: 50% position exits at 2R
- Remaining 50% takes Fibonacci extension level (1.272/1.618, potential target below in the 83,000-81,000 area)

**Additional Points/Filters**：
- If entering in the Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 retracement zone (calculated from the recent high of 89,972, the lower golden zone is about 84,500-85,500), can add 1x position (total risk ≤3%)
- Priority on increased volume + confirmation of bearish pattern
- Currently not on weekends/major events, normal operations can proceed

**Summary**：Clear bearish trend, wait or short after confirming the rebound on the 5-minute chart. Risk control is a priority, do not force entry without signals. $BTC

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【2025-12-14 21:27】ETHUSDT Short-Term Strategy

**Overall Direction Judgment (1-Hour Chart)**:
Bearish Direction (Only Short)
- Price ≈3092 < EMA20 (3105.86) < EMA50 (3123.75)
- MACD: DIF -5.47 < DEA -3.94, MACD -1.54 (Green Bar, though small but negative value, green bar after death cross)
Overall trend is downward sloping, price operates below EMA, meeting bearish conditions.

Entry Rules (Lower Time Frame, 15 Minutes):
Secondary Breakout Entry (Following Trend) - Bearish
- Price has broken below the previous low/support level ≈3048.32 (marked low), and has rebounded but has not broken this level confirmed (current price 3092, if unable to break 3048-3050 area after rebound, can be seen as rebound without breaking).
- Recently, there have been enlarged green candles, and trading volume has a pulse (149K high bar), supporting bearish continuation.
- No obvious bearish engulfing pattern, but suitable for chasing shorts after breakout and retest confirmation.

**Stop Loss and Take Profit**:
- Stop Loss: Recent swing high ≈3128-3132 (or previous high resistance), or ATR 1-1.5 times (ATR, estimated 50-80 points, stop loss can be set at 3130-3150). Risk control at 1-1.5% of capital.
- Take Profit: Risk-reward ratio ≥2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exits at 2R (for example, entry at 3090, stop loss at 3140 risk 50 points, then first TP 3090-100=2990).
- Remaining 50% aims for 3-4R (TP 3090-150/200=2940/2890), or trailing stop to previous low extension (around 2900).

Currently, consider entering short when rebounding to the 3050-3080 area meets resistance, operating in the direction of the overall trend. Pay attention to reducing positions before the weekend (today is Sunday, major event risk is low but liquidity is thin). No Fibonacci area for adding positions. $ETH

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