arhaan_crypto

Market Context

Bitcoin remains in a daily downtrend following the completion of a large Cypher Harmonic structure. After the impulsive selloff from point C, price has entered a bearish flag consolidation, reinforcing the probability of trend continuation lower rather than reversal.

This is classic impulse → consolidation → continuation behavior.

Harmonic Structure Recap

XA: Strong impulsive advance.

AB: Corrective retracement (~0.58).

BC: Extension into 1.26, forming exhaustion at point C.

CD (In Progress): Expansion toward 0.786 of XC, projecting completion near $60K–$66K.

The harmonic structure provides the macro roadmap; the bearish flag provides the execution trigger.

Bearish Flag Breakdown

Flag formed after a high-momentum selloff (flagpole).

Price is consolidating inside a descending corrective channel.

Volume has contracted during consolidation — textbook bearish flag behavior.

Recent rejection from the upper boundary confirms seller dominance.

A breakdown below the flag low should trigger continuation toward the Cypher D zone.

Structure & Momentum

Market structure: Lower highs, lower lows intact.

Daily RSI:

Holding below 40

No bullish divergence present

Confirms bearish continuation bias

Prior demand levels have failed → now acting as resistance.

Trade Plan

Primary Setup: Bearish Continuation

Short Entry (Aggressive): Breakdown below flag support

Short Entry (Conservative): Pullback into $88K–$95K supply zone

Invalidation: Daily close above $95,000

Targets:

TP1: $78,000

TP2: $70,000

TP3: $60,000 – $66,000 (Cypher D completion / HTF demand)

Risk remains asymmetric to the downside while price stays below flag resistance.

Alternative Scenario

Only a clean daily close above $95K, followed by structure reclaim, would invalidate:

Bearish flag

Cypher continuation

Daily downtrend bias

Until then, all upside moves are corrective.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is aligning two high-probability bearish structures:

Cypher Harmonic continuation

Bearish flag consolidation

This confluence significantly increases the probability of a deeper corrective leg toward HTF demand. Patience favors sellers.

Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Daily / Swing
Pattern: Cypher + Bearish Flag
Invalidation: Daily close > $95K
Target Zone: $60K–$66K

$BTC
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