加密币圈老炮

🔥 The latest features are here! The Binance chat room now has the 【private chat】 function～

Brothers, communication will be more convenient in the future, no more worrying about messages getting lost!

The usage is super simple:

① Enter 【chat room】 in the search bar to find the entrance

② Click the ➕ in the upper right corner to add a veteran

③ Enter your Binance ID or chat room ID (for example, mine: a290yzx)

④ One-click search, and you can add me for communication anytime!

Let's go, first add Brother Pao, and you can chat about the market trends directly in real-time later!

$BTC $ETH #聊天室

$ETH This needle is really awesome

$BTC $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期

$ETH The Ether suddenly surged before the US stock market opened, but it's fine. All of Brother Pao's core brothers have already either halved or fully closed their positions. On the contrary, this surge before the US stock market opens is a great opportunity to layout tonight's market. For the brothers who got on board, just scan the code on Binance to adopt the Bujv strategy.
As usual, I'll put a few core brothers' pictures here; there isn't enough space for more.

$BTC $BNB #美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

$ETH Ethereum strategy last night, 2958 short position entered, first stop at 2908 after a day and night of fluctuation, just now, the spike reached, successfully taken, the remaining position just let the bullets fly a little longer! Brother Pao's strategy is to ensure that the core brothers do not lose while also being able to gain more. Next, the market has been fluctuating for almost a day and night again, tonight there should be some volatility. Continue with the inner strategy for tonight's market, enter directly via Binance scan!!

$BTC $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

Get ready, a wave is coming!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

I highly recommend a cryptocurrency worth paying attention to——$BCH . Read it carefully, and you'll thank me.

From the current market environment, this coin is really solid.#美国非农数据超预期

What stage are we in now?

Early bear market.

Other mainstream coins have plummeted, and many trends can be described as 'free fall', but BCH remains remarkably stable, hardly moving at all.$BTC $ETH

Now, take a look at the voices in the square——

Many KOLs have started to unify their stance: short BCH. Their logic is quite simple: since mainstream coins have fallen like this, why shouldn't BCH fall? The popular coin ZEC has also peaked and then plummeted, and once BTC officially enters a bear market, no one can escape.

On the surface, this logic seems reasonable, but I prefer to use reverse thinking to view the market.

What is truly worth contemplating is a question:

What will happen to a coin that can't be shaken even in a bear market when a bull market arrives?

Now, let's look at the space.

The historical high for BCH is 1642, and now there is still a full 1000+ points of upward space from the previous high.

What does this mean?

It means that it is not a coin that has already overdrawn its increase, but rather an extremely low-positioned variety that has shown strong resilience in the early stages of the bear market.

In my view:

👉 Not falling in a bear market is the biggest bullish signal.

👉 When the next round of market truly starts, BCH is likely to behave unexpectedly.

Therefore, BCH is not a coin you should chase right now,

but rather one that needs to be added to your observation list in advance and closely tracked as a potential dark horse.

This is the core reason I want everyone to focus on BCH in the future.
#巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

This is why I recently started to turn bearish, focusing on one core issue: the Bank of Japan. #日本央行加息

$BTC
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Many people are not taking it seriously yet, but that recent wave of declines has actually priced in some expectations of "Japan possibly raising interest rates" ahead of time. During those days, it wasn't just Bitcoin that was falling; the Nikkei index also plunged overnight, which is not a coincidence but rather the same capital chain contracting simultaneously. #美国非农数据超预期

What the market truly fears is not whether "that small interest will be raised," but a more lethal question —

Will yen carry trades be forced to liquidate?

If you understand yen carry trades, you know why this is dangerous.

For the past decade, Japan has maintained near-zero interest rates, even negative rates, effectively turning the yen into the cheapest financing tool in the world. The operational path for a large amount of capital is extremely simple:

👉 Borrow yen

👉 Exchange for dollars

👉 Buy U.S. stocks, tech stocks, or even high-volatility risk assets like Bitcoin

This is the typical logic of yen carry trades and has been the invisible fuel for the continuous rise of global risk assets over the past few years.

However, this strategy has one absolute premise: the yen must continue to weaken.

Once the Bank of Japan sends a signal to raise rates, or even just shifts to a hawkish stance, the yen starts to strengthen, and problems arise immediately —

The cost of borrowing increases, the exchange rate starts to bite back, and what seemed like a comfortable leverage suddenly becomes a burden.

At this point, there is only one choice for capital:

Cut positions and repay loans.

Note that in this process, what gets sold off is often not the yen,

but — U.S. stocks, tech stocks, and high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

This is also why the market is concerned about a repeat of the chain reaction seen in July and August 2024:

It’s not just a single market experiencing a blowup, but rather the carry trade chain being forced to contract simultaneously, triggering a cross-market resonance decline.

So at this point in time, my choice to be bearish is not because I suddenly doubt the long-term value of Bitcoin,

but because —

Before the thunder from the Bank of Japan fully strikes, risk assets are very hard to be truly safe.

At this level of macro variable, once the direction is wrong, you won't have time to escape.
$ETH $SOL

$ETH Give me a kiss, the winning streak cannot be broken!!

#美国非农数据超预期

The US stock market is also experiencing a volatile trend. Brothers without Danzi should take a good rest tonight!!! Or come over and chat with Laopao! Scan the code to enter

$BTC $ETH $SOL

#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

$ETH Tonight Ethereum strategy has been released

#美国非农数据超预期

Tonight, Danzi is hard to work with, we can only be patient and wait. Brother Pao needs a breakout signal!!

In this fluctuating sideways market, neither up nor down, we can only wait. We are not short of opportunities in our dreams!!

$ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Tonight's data will be released, higher than expected, but there is no fluctuation in the cryptocurrency market, the main explosive force is concentrated on the opening of the US stock market. All of Brother Pao's core brothers are now waiting in empty positions for my strategy to enter. Brother Pao will monitor the market in real time. Additionally: to get on Brother Pao's train, scan the code to enter!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

The recently released data exceeds expectations, but it's not good news for the cryptocurrency market #美国非农数据超预期

The recently released U.S. data overall exceeds market expectations, which on the surface looks like "a positive economic outlook," but for the current cryptocurrency environment, this does not constitute good news; rather, it leans more towards a bearish signal. $BTC

The reason is simple:

The core logic behind this round of market rally is not economic strength, but rather the anticipation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. $ETH $SOL

1. The stronger the data, the slower the rate cuts; this is hard logic.

Whether it's the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, or consumer-related data, as long as the results exceed expectations, they will convey one message —

The U.S. economy does not urgently need to be "rescued."

In this situation:

The Federal Reserve has no pressing reason to accelerate rate cuts

It may even delay or slow down the easing pace that the market has overly optimistically priced in.

And this precisely hits the most vulnerable spot of current risk assets.

2. The recent rebound in the cryptocurrency market is essentially a "rate cut expectation rally."

We must recognize a reality:

The recent strength of BTC and ETH is more about the early digestion of an expected future easing environment rather than a trend driven by new capital.

When the data proves:

The economy still has resilience

Inflation and employment have not significantly worsened

Then, the part of the "imaginative space" that previously supported prices will begin to be retracted.

3. Strong data + Japanese interest rate hike expectations = De-leveraging environment.

While U.S. data is relatively strong, Japanese interest rate hike expectations have not faded, which puts dual pressure on global liquidity:

On one side, the dollar's rate cut expectations are compressed

On the other side, the potential financing costs for the yen are rising.

In this combination, the market's first reaction is often not to continue taking risks, but to reduce leverage and shrink risk exposure.

And in the cryptocurrency market, it is precisely the asset class that is most sensitive to changes in liquidity.

4. Conclusion: This is a direct impact on the rally logic.

Therefore, from the bearish perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this data exceeding expectations feels more like a "cooling" of the market:

It won't lead to an immediate collapse

But it will significantly weaken the momentum for further upward movement.

The market will reassess the matching degree between valuation and expectations.

The real danger has never been bad data,

But rather good data that no longer supports the rise. #美联储降息

Tonight is a data-intensive night, the market is reassessing risk assets, are you ready?

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, but Powell's remarks did not provide the market with a clear path for easing; instead, he repeatedly emphasized that future policies will rely more on economic data. This means that the market has shifted from merely trading on rate cut expectations to a data-driven repricing phase. #美联储降息

Against this backdrop, the core data released tonight is particularly critical. At 21:30, the U.S. unemployment rate for November, non-farm payrolls for November, and the month-on-month retail sales for October will be released simultaneously. These data directly reflect employment, consumption, and economic resilience. If the overall data is strong, it indicates that the U.S. economy still has support, and the Federal Reserve does not need to accelerate rate cuts in the short term; the previously overstated expectations for easing will naturally face pressure for retraction.
#数据来袭

For the cryptocurrency market, this environment is not friendly. The current rebound is more based on expectations rather than sustained inflow of real funds. Once macro data verifies that the economy has not significantly weakened, the slope of interest rate decline will flatten, and high-volatility assets are often the first to come under pressure, with crypto assets being the most affected.

Meanwhile, expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan are still fermenting. The long-term low interest rate of the yen has provided a large amount of leveraged funds to the global market. Once policy expectations change, the withdrawal of arbitrage funds from risk assets is almost inevitable. In this process of deleveraging, the most liquid-sensitive assets are often the first to be sold off. #日本加息

In summary, the current market lacks clear macro tailwinds, and the rise mainly relies on expectations for support. During this window of multiple data and policy variables being released, I tend to maintain a bearish judgment. This is not a phase suitable for continuing to chase risks, but rather a time to be vigilant about the timing of repricing risks.
$SOL
$BTC $ETH

$ETH No wonder today's rebound is so difficult; the liquidity is too poor now, and such a small amount of capital can affect the market.

$BTC $SOL #巨鲸动向

$ASTER This cryptocurrency was discussed by Pao Ge 10 days ago. Is it a promotional platform for young models and internet celebrities? The old players in the crypto space know what’s going on!

At present, it seems to align with Pao Ge's prediction; if it needs to be smashed, then it must be smashed, regardless of who calls for it!

$ETH $LUNA
#美联储降息 #ETH走势分析

What is meant by double long and short? This is called double long and short, shorted Ethereum 3 times last night, went long on SOL this morning, and both have already turned around, 100% amplitude

$ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向

$ETH The late-night strategy continues, keep going, continue to short, continue to eat, three waves in one night! The US stock market has one hour left before closing, continue to layout the segment strategy for tomorrow during the day! If needed, feel free to join!
$BTC $ETH
#巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析

$ETH You only know that I have been posting pictures all night, but actually, Brother Pao had already announced tonight's trading strategy in the square before the US stock market opened. If you look closely at the charts of the three major mainstream currencies, especially SOL, there was a strong surge right before the US stock market opened. This is a typical bait for buyers, a rhythm of raising prices for selling. Brother Pao had already analyzed and posted all this in the square before tonight's waterfall, and mentioned that it is difficult for Ethereum to stabilize at 3000. All these predictions were spot on!

Real experts always do the same thing: repeatedly breaking the boundaries of their own understanding while continually expanding the capacity to embrace the world's patterns. This is not a temporary breakthrough, but a never-ending journey of self-improvement.
$BTC $ETH
#巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

$ETH Ethereum 3125-2955 has dropped a full 170 points! Brother Pao would like to thank you for your trust; let's start with 7 core brothers! The 4 pictures in the square are the limit, but not the brothers' limit!
Brother Pao is monitoring the market in real-time. The second half of the night will continue with the swing strategy, trust Brother Pao and scan the code to enter directly!

$BTC $BNB
#美联储降息 #ETH走势分析