冰糖橙子君

The current market structure is becoming increasingly clear:

First Tier: BTC
Bitcoin is now the new "gold standard" in the financial world, with ETFs, national reserves, and crypto treasury all aggressively allocating resources, and it may even become a "fiat currency substitute asset" in the future.

Second Tier: ETH
If BTC is the "digital gold," ETH is the "crypto Wall Street": it is the core infrastructure for all hot topics like DeFi, RWA, and Stablecoins. Especially after the passage of the GENIUS act, hundreds of trillions of stablecoins will almost all run on Ethereum. The status of ETH may be akin to the role of "English" in the international market.

Third Tier: Potential ETF Stocks
SOL, #XRP, #DOGE, #LTC , and BNB are all star projects with potential ETF themes or already on the crypto treasury list.
SOL is the "hexagon warrior," covering DeFi, Meme, AI, RWA, and DEPIN entirely, and ETFs are already trading;
$XRP is tied to SWIFT alternatives, with political and business resources stable as a rock;
DOGE is the original Meme, the favorite of Musk;
#BNB is the only token that can harvest platform value and works closely with the Trump family;
LTC is the "digital silver," a 15-year-old project that wins half the battle with consensus;
Although policy support is slightly weaker than ETH, these few will not perform poorly during sector rotations.

Fourth Tier: ETF Applications + Heavy Treasury Holdings
$ADA , $AVAX, $APT, #SUI, $DOT, #FIL, $NEAR, #TRX, $BONK, $TRUMP, etc. Although these have not yet formed a trend, they qualify as "big capital willing to take a look." Once the ETFs are approved, this batch of altcoins may suddenly take off.
Fifth Tier: On-chain DeFi/RWA Core Assets
For example, $AAVE, $UNI , #ldo , $ENA, $JUP, #ONDO, etc. After the GENIUS implementation, these projects will undertake a large amount of on-chain exchanges and financial funds, serving as the "real estate stocks" within DeFi infrastructure.

In the last segment, old altcoins/CEX speculative coins—run as early as possible
These coins have poor liquidity, scattered teams, and lack innovation; each market cycle is just a "pretend not to be dead." Once the market declines, they will drop the hardest. It is recommended to directly cut losses and switch to mainstream assets without attachment.
As the market stands now, it is no longer a question of "is it a bull market," but rather, "which vehicle are you riding on?"
#NFT板块领涨 #山寨季來了？

With Trump's rise to power, these 5 cryptocurrencies may experience an explosion, a rare opportunity:

1. $DOGE : Current price is $0.43, a must-have in your portfolio. Musk's support for $DOGE is increasingly evident, even using "D.O.G.E" as an abbreviation for a new government department. With high trading volume and strong liquidity, it may see a significant increase next month, making it a good time to invest.
2. $PNUT : Previously surged 400% in two days due to its association with Trump, current price is $1.38, with low volatility. As Trump takes office, related interest is expected to rise again, suggesting gradual accumulation at lower levels, anticipating a second surge.
3. $PEPE : A popular project combining DeFi and NFT, with potential comparable to Shiba Inu. Although it is not yet the best time to invest, it is worth continuous attention, and one should act when opportunities to enter at lower levels arise.
4. $Puppies: A Musk concept coin, with over 15,000 holding addresses, a market cap of $12 million, and after a six-month consolidation, the community remains strong, potentially becoming the brightest new star by the end of 2024.
Reasonable layout and seizing opportunities could be the turning point for wealth!
5. $XRP: Actively supporting Trump, recently surged to $2.9, a 3-year high, current price of $2.33 still holds attraction. If the Trump administration adopts it as a payment tool, the future growth potential is incalculable.

#山寨季怎么布局？

现在这个预期是有些小了！#IR

Big opportunities are brewing, the key is just one step away？？？

Today we will take a look back at the cycles:

In 2017, it was ICOs, in 2020, it was DeFi, in 2021, it was public chains, and in 2023, it is Memes.
In every round, the ones who truly made money were those who positioned themselves early. Chasing hot trends can only make quick money; understanding the trend in advance is what allows you to reap substantial rewards.

This round of interest rate cuts is no different. BTC rose from 80,000 to 90,000, fundamentally driven by expectations, but the result was a high followed by a drop. Experienced players know: when the news comes out, smart money has already completed their positioning.

Why is this year so difficult? Because the rules have changed.

The market repeatedly plays out “crashing - forced liquidation - collecting funds - rising,” with retail investors being harvested back and forth.
But institutions are making money. BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, ETFs, listed companies increasing their BTC holdings…
This round of market is no longer a retail frenzy, but a long-term reallocation led by institutions.

The conclusion is simple:
Don’t stubbornly hold onto old thinking, don’t chase up and down in emotions. Choosing the right direction, laying in ambush early, and patiently waiting for the wind is more important than predicting ups and downs every day.

The market will wash out, narratives will change, but opportunities will always belong to those who position themselves during low noise periods.

The wave has just begun, and there is still time for everything.
#BinanceABCs

December is already halfway through, and the market is still lukewarm! Is Q1 2026 worth looking forward to?
Today's market highlights:

First, let's look at the current trends of mainstream coins:
1、$BTC
Key support at $86,000, if broken, may trigger a deeper correction. Saylor has repeatedly updated the BTC Tracker, interpreted as continued accumulation; Glassnode's view: After the pressure of interest rate hikes in Japan is released, BTC is more favorable for mid-term trends.
2、$ETH
Relatively strong. On one side, Tom Lee clearly states "I won't sell ETH", while on the other, the whales continue to buy the dip since October 11, and the market begins to bet on "unexpected outcomes".
3、$SOL
The Breakpoint conference just ended and it fell below 130, the sentiment is very real. The narrative is there, but the market doesn't cooperate; the "moment for SOL" still has to wait for the overall market.

Macroeconomic calendar (key points this week)

1. Thursday 21:30: US November CPI
2. Friday: Japan's interest rate decision
3. Friday 23:00: US inflation expectation final value
👉 The probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates in January is approximately 75.6%, just take it with a grain of salt; the market laughed at this last time too.

Market summary:

In the short term, it's Japan's interest rate hikes + inflation data weighing down the market, with low trading volume and weak confidence; however, institutions and whales have not retreated. Once the bad news lands, let's see if the bears can smoothly escape.
#加密市场观察

Do you still have faith in Dogecoin?
Today, let's take a look at the technical aspects of DOGE:
DOGE is currently at a critical turning point (0.13-0.14).
The price channel is continuously converging, forming a symmetrical triangle structure, and is highly aligned with the high-cycle Wyckoff logic: the lows are consistently rising, and the volatility is being compressed, indicating that the underlying buying strength is increasing, suggesting that there might be a significant move ahead.

From a multi-timeframe perspective, DOGE is currently in the 'deep discount zone' of the MTF range, where a buying reversal signal has already appeared on the 8-hour level. Normally, both ends of the range will develop Wyckoff structures, providing opportunities for bulls at lower levels and space for bears at higher levels. The focus now is on whether the third K-line will give a clear SOS confirmation signal.

In the short term, DOGE is also following the rhythm of Wyckoff Model 1: retracement - structural breakout - confirmation. The operational thought process is quite simple:
Either wait for a small degree BOS breakout to follow up, with stop-loss placed below the previous low;
Or wait for an LPS retracement after an internal BOS, with the defense level placed below the LPS.

On risk control: don't get too excited. Control single trade risk at 2%, with the first target looking at the Wyckoff target area and the second target at the upper end of the range. Once a SOW weakness signal appears, clear the position immediately.

Daily structure: Although the overall trend hasn't completely reversed yet, in this round of decline, DOGE hasn't refreshed any obvious new lows but is slowly raising the bottom within the triangle. Compared to the historical cycle of 'the more it falls, the lower it goes,' this time is clearly different—more like a reduction in selling pressure, preparing for a directional breakout.

In summary: it's not about taking off immediately, but the structure has changed, and DOGE is building momentum for the next directional choice.
#加密市场观察

In the past few days, everyone has been talking about the USDT dropping to 6.95 and 6.96, causing a lot of people to worry about a devaluation.
I went through the exchange rate trend of the US dollar to RMB from 2013 to now, and the results are quite interesting—historical bull market peaks (November of 13, 17, and 21) all coincided with periods of dollar weakness, which means that the cryptocurrency market peaks and the strength of the dollar are inversely related. Based on the exchange rate trend in recent months, it feels like the second half of this bull market is really approaching.
#比特币VS代币化黄金

12.6 Market Summary:

📉 Bitcoin has been pushed back below 90,000
This "turning back for a moment" is actually not surprising—there are rises within falls and rebounds within rises; essentially, it's still a fluctuating consolidation.

The difficulty now has never been about short-term views, but rather maintaining direction; when the direction is unclear, the more actions taken, the faster the losses. Patience is the rarest position in the crypto space.

🟣 ETH 3000 is still holding, the structure still leans towards rebounds
Ethereum currently has not lost its strong support, the defense line is still relatively stable, and the trend has not reversed.
When uncertain, the optimal strategy is—stay still.

🪙 Altcoins during this time look quite twisted

When the market is stagnant, they fall; when the market rises, they still don’t follow. When it really comes to a drop, they plunge together.

The 50% pump of LUNA last night looked fierce, but the uncertainty is too great, missing out is more dignified than catching a falling knife.
The crypto space rarely gives you strong counter-trend tickets, especially when the market is volatile—small coins act like leverage; they fall faster than you can imagine.
📌 Operate less, fantasize less, and survive more.
#比特币VS代币化黄金

#sol
This wave is quite impressive, the double bottom structure is basically formed, as long as we push through the neck line, it wouldn't be surprising to surge up to 170 dollars.
On-chain metrics also align, HODLer selling pressure has clearly eased, NUPL has fallen into the "surrender zone", which historically is often a sign before a rebound.
Of course, if we can't break through here, a pullback to 128–132 is also normal, fortunately, there is some minor support at 133–137, and the overall bullish logic hasn't been broken. Futures sentiment is a bit mixed, but the continued inflow into ETFs still provides a layer of safety at the bottom.

Are market benefits coming one after another? Let's summarize:

📍 QT declares an end
Theoretically, it should be a delayed benefit, but coupled with previous continuous sell-offs, the market directly treats it as an immediate spark.

📍 Bank of America opens up crypto allocation
Wealth advisors can suggest clients allocate 1%-4% of assets into crypto, managing funds of $6.4 trillion, which is highly valuable.

📍 Vanguard Group's 180° stance reversal
From a critic to a distributor, opening up BlackRock ETF trading, ETF transactions surged 20%-30% compared to last week, with an increase of $1 billion.
Don't forget—Vanguard manages $11 trillion.

📍 SEC announces January start for crypto innovation exemption
This is a clear regulatory support, directly reducing institutional uncertainty, favorable for large-scale institutional entry, this is a significant point.

📍 Musk continues to support BTC
Predicting that the 38T crisis may boost BTC, he said a few days ago that BTC is an energy currency, and added more fuel last night.

📍 Trump hints at Fed Chair nominee=Hassett
Polymarket probability 86%. Hassett is absolutely pro-crypto, supporting BTC strategic reserves, supporting miners, criticizing SEC regulation, and as soon as he takes office, it will be a favorable button.
#美SEC推动加密创新监管

I have condensed the market conditions from 25.12 to 26.Q1 into 4 scenarios.
First, let me share my personal view — I am bullish, but the pace may be quite torturous.

① Main upward trend explosion (52%)
PCE is mild, Japan only talks without real rate hikes, MSCI drags again, BTC directly spikes to 93k-94k → Touching 100k by Christmas, waiting for January when U.S. banks will support, institutional main upward trend takes off, Q1 pushing to 130k-160k is not exaggerated.

② Realistic oscillation upward (28%)
Japan symbolically raises rates once, MSCI normal exclusion, BTC retraces to 84k-87k before rising again, a V rebound in January-February, and regaining 100k in spring.

③ More painful but sweeter deep adjustment (15%)

PCE is relatively hot, Japan raises rates twice, MSCI collectively cuts, the market is likely to explore 60k-65k, but it will attract institutions and sovereign funds for ultimate bottom fishing, and the bull market gate will be fully opened in 2026 Q2.

④ Black swan version (5%)

The Federal Reserve suddenly does not cut rates + Trump throws out negative news, BTC may briefly break 60k, but such scenarios require a plethora of bad news, with very low probability.

BTC, ETH, SOL make a strong comeback! BTC rose over 6% in a single day, with significant contributions from the Vanguard Group's open crypto ETF, which saw trading volume exceed 1 billion within the first half hour of opening. Sentiment has fully recovered.
Today's market highlights:

1. Hassett highly likely to become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Trump has pushed the announcement to early next year, with Polymarket giving an 85% probability. Hassett himself is part of the 'crypto-friendly faction,' which is a long-term positive for the crypto industry.

2. STABLE token model announced
Total supply of 100 billion, not used for Gas, 10% allocated for deposits and exchange activities, suggesting that exchange activities are likely to ramp up soon.

3. Predictive markets set to explode
Kalshi raised 1 billion with a valuation of 11 billion. The three major players in prediction markets: Polymarket / Kalshi / Opiniøn, with the trend toward compliance becoming increasingly clear.

4. OKX delists some old coins
Trading pairs like ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, RACA will be delisted, with a clear trend of cleaning up existing projects.

5. ZEC continues to adjust
It previously rose by 10 times, and funds are starting to rotate out, normalizing sentiment.

6. PIPPIN remains strong
Market cap exceeds 218 million, contract fee rate remains at -0.2%, still experiencing short squeezes, be aware of the risks.

7. SEC signals 'crypto pivot'
Chairman Paul Atkins: The crypto innovation exemption will be issued within about a month, and the regulatory stance has officially shifted to support.

8. Michael Burry again criticizes BTC
He claims, 'Bitcoin is as worthless as tulips.' This indicates that the traditional market's consensus on BTC's value has not yet fully taken hold.
#加密市场回调

Last night the market fell again, currently a small rebound!
Today's market hot spots to pay attention to:

1⃣ #BTC Stop falling and rebound: Last night it once dipped down, but ultimately held its ground, the lower end has stopped falling, currently rebounding to 86500, continue to observe strength and weakness.
2⃣ #ETH Passive following: Following the fluctuations of Bitcoin, even 2800 has been lost, the DAT funding situation is not great, can only wait and see the reaction.
3⃣ #SOL Back to the crash zone: The price has touched the crash range from last Friday, indicating that the bottom isn't going to come out so quickly, still be cautious.

4⃣ $pippin Surging against the trend: Market value of 191 million, nearly 6 times increase in two weeks, Binance contract rate continues to be negative, short sellers are being forced to cover.
5⃣ $GIGGLE Poor performance: Binance completed a donation + destruction of 970,000 U, but the market ignored it, dropping more than 30%.
6⃣ $MON Continual decline: Market cap remains at 2.8 billion, price is only slightly higher than Coinbase's public price, even CB can't support high market cap, this is something to be cautious about.
7⃣ BMNR continues to hard buy ETH: Positions exceed 3%, target of 5% is getting closer, average price 4022, currently facing huge losses, Tom Lee is indeed putting real money in.

8⃣ "Micro strategies" crash: MSTR hits a new low, BMNR continues to sell off, indicating that U.S. stock market funds' enthusiasm for the crypto track has clearly waned.
9⃣ Kalshi migrates to Solana: The prediction market runs directly on-chain, which is positive for the Sol ecosystem and also benefits the Sol circle relying on the MEME effect.
🔟 Gold & Silver take off: Gold PAXG returns to 4238, silver skyrockets to 58.23, a historical high, precious metals become a safe haven for risk.

This week's macro fundamentals revolve around three major events, all tied to "interest rate cut expectations," with sentiment potentially igniting or extinguishing at any moment:

① Powell's speeches from 12/2 to 12/5
Dovish probability is higher (≈65%). As long as he continues to hint at rate cuts and downplays inflation concerns, BTC/ETH will be directly ignited.
However, if he suddenly turns hawkish (≈35%), the dollar will strengthen, and the crypto market may face short-term pressure.

② ADP small non-farm (12/3)
Below expectations = positive (≈60%), indicating a cooling job market and reduced rate hike concerns.
Above 200,000 = negative (≈40%), and rate cut expectations will be dampened.

③ The main event: December non-farm NFP (12/5)
Market expectation is about 200,000.
Actual < 180,000 → Clear job market cooling → Rate cut probability soars to 80%+ → Crypto market directly cheers (positive ≈55%).
220,000 → Strengthening the “soft landing” narrative → Cooling of liquidity expectations → The crypto market may see a 10%+ pullback (negative ≈45%).

Overall:
This week is all about “employment and inflation determining the outcome.” The Federal Reserve's dovish probability slightly prevails; as long as the direction is consistent, BTC really has a chance to test 100,000; but if it turns hawkish, a short-term pullback is also quite normal.

In summary: Volatility will be significant, making quick profits and quick losses both possible.

$TST Today's top gainers are truly two extremes; the old coins are at the bottom, while the new coins are climbing high!
Bitcoin and Ethereum have once again hit the bottom; today I encouraged some friends in the circle to chase a purchase of TST and Yuyue, and recently I've been surviving on small Yuyue orders!
Don't be too greedy; even Xiaomi is still just rice. The editor emphasizes stability! If you trust, come on!!!

12.1 The five major mainstream currencies lead the market to test the bottom again!
The key for Bitcoin this time is whether it can hold above 80,000. If it falls below, we need to continue looking for support; if it holds, there is a high probability it will confirm a second test.

However, the macro environment is not very friendly right now—the US-Venezuela conflict and Japan's interest rate hike expectations are adding pressure to the market. No one can confidently predict how the market will move, but risks must be managed well.
#加密市场观察

When Americans have a holiday for Thanksgiving, the market becomes quiet again.
However, this year's market sentiment is completely opposite to last year:
Last year it rose from 40,000 to 90,000, feeling great; this year it fell from 126,000 back to 90,000, naturally giving off a bear flavor.

Old investors have seen many ups and downs, and a 30% drop is really nothing, a rebound is just waiting for good news. Whether Bitcoin can create a new ATH is another story; even if it returns to 100,000 first, it would be enough to support a new narrative, but currently, the market hasn't seen a real '2020-level' big story yet.

The biggest change this round is: the funds are becoming more and more professional, no longer falling for empty promises, focusing more on whether projects can be self-sustaining. Instead, hype, which can strongly generate profits, stabilizes high FDV; meme coins, blue chips, and new narratives have all turned into a 'quick in and out' play. If you really want to hold long-term, then focus on the data—check defillama to see which protocols are truly profitable, the top ten batch (Tether, Circle, Hype, Pump, TRX, EdgeX…) is where the value lies. Regardless of whether tokens are issued or not, allocate to projects that can be profitable in the long run; whether the altcoin season comes or not, there’s no loss.

On the other hand, those 'top narrative' storytellers, if they lack quantitative indicators, basically just pump once and then decline. Blast is a living textbook.
This round of market, to put it simply, is just one sentence—don't fall in love, talk about profit rates.
#加密市场观察

$MBL Brothers, let's go! We finally caught up with the first train! We can evacuate now, don't be too greedy!