Bitcoin Tests Its “True Market Mean” as 2025 Structure Begins to Resemble 2022
Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently navigating a critical phase as price action tests what analysts call the “True Market Mean”, a level that has historically defined the boundary between temporary pullbacks and prolonged bear markets.
Bitcoin at a Critical Support Level
BTC has declined to approximately $81.3K, representing the aggregate cost basis of all non-dormant coins. This metric has long served as a structural “line in the sand” for the broader market. In previous cycles, sustained trading above this level allowed the market to recover, while a breakdown often preceded multi-year bearish conditions.
For now, price remains marginally above this anchor, but the margin for error is thin.
Growing Pressure from Underwater Supply
Following Bitcoin’s drop below the 0.75 quantile level at $96.1K, more than 25% of the total circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss. This shift significantly increases psychological pressure on recent buyers, particularly those who entered near cycle highs.
Historically, such conditions force a decisive outcome: either capitulation, accelerating downside, or strong hands absorbing supply, forming a durable bottom.
Market Structure Echoes Early 2022
Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between the current market environment and Q1 2022. Demand across spot markets and Bitcoin ETFs has weakened, while institutional participants appear more defensive, adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach rather than aggressive accumulation.
This similarity in structure raises concerns that the market could be entering a prolonged consolidation or distribution phase if demand does not recover soon.
Market Outlook: Neutral but Fragile
The broader sentiment remains neutral, yet extremely fragile. While Bitcoin has not broken its key support, momentum remains weak, and confidence among large players is clearly deteriorating.
Large-cap assets and ETF inflows are showing signs of cooling, reinforcing the idea that institutional capital is prioritizing capital preservation over expansion at this stage.
Key Levels to Watch Going Forward
To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim $106.2K (0.85 quantile) as a confirmed support level. Such a move would likely signal renewed strength and a continuation of the broader bullish cycle.
On the downside, a daily close below $81.3K would be a significant technical and psychological breakdown, potentially marking the transition into a more definitive bear market phase.
As macroeconomic uncertainty continues to influence risk assets, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to external shocks. The coming weeks may prove pivotal in defining the direction of the 2025 market cycle.
Bias: Bearish Timeframe: 1H Trade Style: Short SHORT 📉 • Entry: 0.1178 • Stop Loss: 0.1262 Targets 🎯 • TP: 0.10 📌 Reason to Enter (Confluence): • Bearish momentum continuation on the 4H • Price rejecting below key resistance levels • Trend structure favors downside continuation ⚠️ Trade carefully and manage your risk. Market conditions may change. Not financial advice. Do your own research. 🧠 Interacting or opening charts from this post helps me provide more educational content.
Ichimoku Snapshot: Kijun-sen (Base Line): Above → wants to enter the Cloud Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): Above → wants to enter the Cloud Chikou Span (Lagging Line): Above → wants to enter the Cloud
🧠 Ichimoku Scenarios (Game Plan)
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation (Entry)
Condition: Price penetrates above the Kumo Cloud AND Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen Target: Next major resistance ~100k
2️⃣ Bearish Pullback / Reversal (Entry)
Condition: Price breaks below the Kumo Cloud AND Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen Target: Next major support ~80k
⚠️ Strategy Notes:
Focus on patience — wait for confirmed breakout or rejection around the Kumo Cloud before taking action.
Follow for daily Ichimoku setups and market insights.
No financial advice — personal observation using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. $BTC
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. 🧠 If you found value here, interacting or opening charts from this post helps me continue sharing educational content.
This is my initial entry for $LINK and may change based on market conditions.
Bias: Bearish 🔴 Timeframe: 4H Trade Style - Swing (Will take weeks to a month) SHORT Entry: $13.2 Stop Loss: $14.168 Target 1: $12.232(50% close for me) Target 2: $11.749
🧠 Technical Reasoning (Ichimoku Cloud) This setup is based on a high-probability Ichimoku trend-following strategy:
Three-Line Penetration: The Tenkan-sen (Conversion) and Kijun-sen (Base) have crossed, and the Chikou Span (Lagging) is clear of price action.
Kumo Cloud Color: The Future Cloud (Senkou Span A/B) is [Red], confirming the mid-term trend direction.
Price Positioning: Price is holding firmly [Under] the Cloud, signaling a breakout or successful retest of support/resistance.
⚠️ Risk Note Risk per trade: 2% recommended (adjust to your personal tolerance). Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss.
📌 If this post helped you, follow me and feel free to open charts or trade directly from here—it supports my work and lets me keep sharing free content. $LINK
The overall sentiment is Bearish, and here’s why the $LINK chart has my full attention today.
👁️ What I'm Watching: The Lagging Line Signal: The ultimate confirmation. If the Chikou Span (Lagging Line) penetrates both the Kumo Cloud and the Kijun Sen (Base Line) to the downside, that is a textbook STRONG BEARISH signal. This shows current price action is weak relative to the past, affirming the downtrend.
The Key Rejection Zone: If price action hits and rejects, a sharp pullback or deeper correction becomes low probable. This is the last line of defense for the bulls on the current time frame.
🛡️ My Approach Today: Patience is key. Not trading on hunches. I'm waiting for the Lagging Line to execute the full confirmation move below the critical levels. No confirmed breakdown, no entry.
Institutions now hold about 5.94 million Bitcoin, which is roughly 30% of all BTC in circulation, including holdings on exchanges, spot ETFs, public companies, and governments.
📊 GUNUSDT – Pullback Plan (Ichimoku Bias: Bullish) Price has confirmed a bullish shift after a strong breakout above the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe. 🔹 Trend bias: LONG only 🔹 Structure: Higher high + strong impulse 🔹 Confirmation: Price, Tenkan & Kijun all above the cloud 📍 Plan Waiting for a healthy pullback into the Kijun-sen / cloud top zone, followed by a clear rejection (wick + strong close) before entering. 📈 Probability Outlook Based on current structure and trend conditions, this setup carries an estimated 60–70% continuation probability, assuming price remains above the cloud. ❌ No chasing ❌ No entries inside the cloud ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Market conditions can change quickly. Always manage risk and trade your own plan. ⏳ Patience > Frequency. Let price come to the level. #GUNUSDT #Ichimoku #PullbackEntry #NotFinancialadvice
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