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#山寨币市场回暖

$BEAT 难道说下一步就是4.5？

看着走势很快又会打个新高点出来！现价上车了个多单，止损放在2.1附近了！目标先看到3.5附近！在看到4.5附近！

希望狗庄能圆梦！

I don't dare to touch this currency, PTB. Just yesterday, I said that single-player coins are the same, whether going long or short, it’s easy to get hit, and the cost-performance ratio is very low. You might be able to run fast and get a taste, but if you run slowly, you will definitely get hit.

In short, as long as you are greedy, you will eventually have to pay it back. First take off, then a needle causes a drop of more than 40%.

The rebound of Ethereum is very weak. A few days ago, ETH's rebound was stronger than Bitcoin, but last night's rebound was too weak, not even touching $3000 before falling back.

Our short position has not been triggered yet, and we expect it to continue oscillating for a while. As long as the smaller levels do not break below the short-term low, there is still a chance to rebound to around $3050, so the short position planned yesterday can continue to be placed and wait.

BTC Market Morning Commentary:

1) Four Hours: Bullish momentum sharply decreased; the rebound is driven by lower-than-expected unemployment data from the U.S., institutions believe the probability of a rate cut in January has increased, leading to a rebound in both U.S. stocks and BTC;
2) Daily: Trading volume has decreased, and the confidence of the bulls is insufficient;
3) Order Book: The amount of buy orders is very small, making it difficult to take action;
4) ETF: A net outflow of 350 million yesterday, selling on the rise;

The price has rebounded to the zero axis, and the room for further rebound is limited.

Once doubted if Brother Ma Ji was secretly using a small account to open a short hedge?

Otherwise, how did this 100% liquidation record come about?

If a person can be completely wrong, then he is another dimension of 100% win rate.

$RATS

The daily trend is strong, with three consecutive bullish candles forming a W bottom. The MACD has crossed above the zero line, and it is expected to continue to rally and challenge the resistance level of 0.00005.

If it retraces to around 0.000035, it could be a good opportunity to buy the dip, targeting 0.00005.

《Three Scenarios for Future Market Trends》

Basically, there are 3 scenarios:
1. Rise above 120,000, forming a double top.
2. Either it fluctuates directly down to the price where mining machines stop.
3. However, some analysts believe that the bull market hasn't arrived yet, and it's about to start.

For now, we can only observe while walking, and make risk control decisions based on inclination.

There are 3 clear points regarding market judgment:
1. Most of the time, market trends will not have clear, easy-to-understand, simple judgments. Otherwise, there wouldn't be poor people in the world.

2. A disproportionately high number of people in the crowd hold their beliefs about the market trends as unchangeable as religious faith. This psychological mechanism was discussed by Munger.
Therefore, maintaining flexibility and openness will bring advantages.

3. The above two statements are far more important than my predictions about market fluctuations. However, mainstream retail investors still believe in simple, deterministic market predictions.
This is human nature; as carbon-based life forms, these algorithms have been ingrained in our spinal cords throughout the process of evolution.

Ethereum is currently above the daily trend line support. As long as it doesn't break down effectively, don't rush to short! The panic index is only 11, which is just the timing for the regular investment layout we mentioned before.

Tonight at 9:30, the non-farm payroll data will be released, and there will definitely be fluctuations. Everyone can prepare small long positions around 2934 and 2891 in advance, with a stop loss set below 2860, aiming for a small profit from a rebound, steady and secure!

Started shorting around 940, and it has dropped for 4-5 days in a row. There may be a slight rebound in the next couple of days. If your holding cost is relatively close, you might consider taking profits in batches and then re-establishing shorts after the rebound.

If there is a rebound, I will provide appropriate shorting positions. Recently, don't chase shorts; the cost-effectiveness is not high.

ETH did not effectively break below the 20-day moving average yesterday, and there is still a possibility of continuing to rebound.

However, the current position is quite awkward, and both shorting and longing carry significant risks. I am still patiently waiting for a more suitable opportunity.

Only when the rebound reaches the 3400-3600 range for shorting, or the drop reaches the 2200-2400 range for longing, will there be a higher certainty of a good opportunity.

Recently, ETH has been stronger than BTC. After taking profits on a long position at over $3250 last time, I haven't traded ETH again. I didn't participate in this decline, while I basically sent points for other cryptocurrencies. At that time, although $3250 was the target for the long position, it wasn't a good short position, so I didn't issue a short signal.

Currently, ETH is relatively resilient but still in a downtrend. Many people see the current pattern as a "consolidation rectangle," believing it will break upwards after the consolidation ends. In fact, I tend to think this is a "bearish flag pattern," which has a higher probability. If it really is a bearish flag pattern, after a minor rebound, it will likely continue to decline.

After recognizing the pattern, just wait for a rebound to the high point to short. The resistance line of the bearish flag pattern (the upward-sloping line) is roughly around $3150. It is advisable to choose an opportunity to short in the $3150-$3200 range, as this pattern can easily create a "bull trap"—a false breakout followed by a sharp decline. Once a valid decline occurs, the target is likely around $2930. ETH

A new week, a new market!

First, the price of BTC has unfortunately broken below the 22-day upward trend line, which means it has broken below the lower boundary of the ascending triangle.

Second, the media has started to speculate about the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on the 19th. Deepseek predicts that the probability of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is over 85%;

Furthermore, will BTC's trend in the next month unfold as depicted in the following diagram? I hope BTC's trend proceeds as follows.

Finally, the risk of a decline is approaching! ​​​

Waiting for a breakthrough [As expected of you]

BTC has been consolidating for nearly 3 weeks, and the range of consolidation is getting smaller. The direction will be decided by next week at the latest. As long as it does not fall below 87600, it still maintains a good bullish structure. Once it effectively breaks through 94000, the price will rush straight to 100000#加密市场观察

Shitcoins will all die, just in different ways. There are particularly many fools in coins like $PNUT and $FARTCOIN, retail investors risk their real money to pump them, can't short them, and the shorts end up suffering, ultimately they still return to zero. In the past two days, $ZEC has been the most foolish, while $HYPE has been somewhat normal in its trend.

When trading, you should be the counterparty to the fools, but don't go head-to-head with the big-money fools in short-term trading. For example, MicroStrategy, which has $120000 still dares to increase its position and buy aggressively, even the longs in the same camp find it stupid and won't play along with it, now it's down to over $80000 and it has no money to add.

Apart from drawing K-lines in a disgusting way, it’s of no use at all, and it also lets the whole world see clearly: After Bitcoin entered the mainstream market, this is all there is to it. Decentralization and privacy are no longer important; it’s just a “special commodity” that can partially look at on-chain data. What really affects the price is all in the exchange's black box, and on-chain data is basically useless.

The story that Bitcoin has been telling for over a decade is nearly at an end. I don't know how many years later, if there will be another wave like the slow bull markets of gold and silver.

Today, three Alphas

$CYS (ZK+AI Infrastructure) will go live at 4 PM, raising 21.85 million in funding, with a domestic team in charge, and KuCoin will be in sync.

$BTX (Music Copyright RWA) will go live at 6 PM, raising 6-9 million in funding, with Gate in sync.

$US (SUI Ecosystem Stablecoin) is open for collection (5-10 $US per person), with Bitget in sync.
All projects hope to quickly launch by taking advantage of the market recovery.

This market
These four needles have all caught
The market where you short on the rise

The fastest way to grow in trading is to grit your teeth and dive in; all opportunities in life are hidden within your fears.

Even if your hands and feet are trembling, you must still go for it; you can definitely set off while being scared, and there's nothing shameful about that.

In fact, it's only after overcoming a bit of fear that you can become unstoppable.

Because true courage is not being fearless, but bravely moving forward while holding onto fear.

The world is just a makeshift stage, and the B circle even more so. If you want to make money here, you have the opportunity to do so.

Remember, don't let yourself fall before dawn. You can always earn back lost money, but an opportunity comes only once in a cycle.

When you think about how many Bs have dropped by dozens or hundreds of times, the potential above is so vast that all your current anxieties will vanish.