Bit-刘貝
专注于合约指导，中长线布局，公众号同名：Bit-刘貝，推特@btc1426
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The spot ETF saw a significant outflow yesterday, with the bulls liquidating 580 million.
At 21:30 tonight, the non-farm payroll data will sound the first alarm for the landing!
Various data has been delayed over the past month and will begin to be released over the next three days, with the most important non-farm data being published tonight. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the unemployment rate will be between 4.4% and 4.6%, which is much higher than the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations. In Powell's words, the loose policy causing inflation to trigger high unemployment rates is a deviation from the original intention of rate cuts, which may reduce the number of rate cuts! At that time, Bitcoin really won't be in doubt with a bottom of 70,000!
$BTC #巨鲸动向
At 21:30 tonight, the non-farm payroll data will sound the first alarm for the landing!
Various data has been delayed over the past month and will begin to be released over the next three days, with the most important non-farm data being published tonight. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the unemployment rate will be between 4.4% and 4.6%, which is much higher than the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations. In Powell's words, the loose policy causing inflation to trigger high unemployment rates is a deviation from the original intention of rate cuts, which may reduce the number of rate cuts! At that time, Bitcoin really won't be in doubt with a bottom of 70,000!
$BTC #巨鲸动向
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December 16 BTC/ETH Strategy Analysis:
Japan's interest rate hike exacerbated by non-farm payrolls!
Currently, Japan's interest rate hike policy is basically set in stone, with a 96% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December. The forecast for non-farm payroll data indicates an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. A high unemployment rate will reduce the probability of interest rate cuts, and the market has been maintaining high volatility in recent days. The target for Bitcoin is 84000, just 1000 points away, while the target for Ethereum is 2900, which has also dropped! The market is facing increasing downward pressure!
BTC
The K-line shows a evening star with moving averages in a volatile arrangement, indicating a clear retracement trend. The drop in the early hours has broken daily support and the rebound is weak, suggesting that the retracement is not yet complete. A daytime rebound requires a four-hour stabilization above 8650 to gain strength, maintaining high volatility.
The range is around 8640-8690, with the target below 8500 looking down to 8370-8200.
ETH
The range is around 2942-2968, with the target below 2870 looking down to 2820-2738.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defensive strategies should be based on actual position size!
$BTC #巨鲸动向 $ETH
Japan's interest rate hike exacerbated by non-farm payrolls!
Currently, Japan's interest rate hike policy is basically set in stone, with a 96% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December. The forecast for non-farm payroll data indicates an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. A high unemployment rate will reduce the probability of interest rate cuts, and the market has been maintaining high volatility in recent days. The target for Bitcoin is 84000, just 1000 points away, while the target for Ethereum is 2900, which has also dropped! The market is facing increasing downward pressure!
BTC
The K-line shows a evening star with moving averages in a volatile arrangement, indicating a clear retracement trend. The drop in the early hours has broken daily support and the rebound is weak, suggesting that the retracement is not yet complete. A daytime rebound requires a four-hour stabilization above 8650 to gain strength, maintaining high volatility.
The range is around 8640-8690, with the target below 8500 looking down to 8370-8200.
ETH
The range is around 2942-2968, with the target below 2870 looking down to 2820-2738.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defensive strategies should be based on actual position size!
$BTC #巨鲸动向 $ETH
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Buy when there are no people and no prices, sell when the place is bustling!
How many more troops does the upper side have?
Everyone knows that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will drive prices up, and interest rate hikes in Japan will lead to declines. This market actually stems from an information gap. Firstly, for retail investors, the information you know is definitely behind that of institutions; by the time you know, the market has already moved ahead of you!
Market trends… news > technology, the first thing reflected is the capital movement in the market, and trends follow the priority of smaller levels being restricted by larger levels. This Monday, the market broke down and rebounded weakly; Japan's interest rate hike policy is like a tiger eyeing its prey. In such a situation, going long clearly makes no sense. We positioned ourselves for a low target of 94500 before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and now the main force's profit-taking has started to look bearish. This Wednesday, Japan's interest rate hike policy meeting starts, and we are preemptively laying out short positions for another big drop, and the results will be realized after the U.S. market!
As the ancients said: Timing - Location - Harmony, corresponding to the market… Momentum - Price - Volume, none can be missing. Many hands make light work, and the spark is in our hands!
Follow Liu Bei's trend to keep the top burning, stabilize to gain profits over the cycle! $BTC #BinanceABCs $ETH
How many more troops does the upper side have?
Everyone knows that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will drive prices up, and interest rate hikes in Japan will lead to declines. This market actually stems from an information gap. Firstly, for retail investors, the information you know is definitely behind that of institutions; by the time you know, the market has already moved ahead of you!
Market trends… news > technology, the first thing reflected is the capital movement in the market, and trends follow the priority of smaller levels being restricted by larger levels. This Monday, the market broke down and rebounded weakly; Japan's interest rate hike policy is like a tiger eyeing its prey. In such a situation, going long clearly makes no sense. We positioned ourselves for a low target of 94500 before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and now the main force's profit-taking has started to look bearish. This Wednesday, Japan's interest rate hike policy meeting starts, and we are preemptively laying out short positions for another big drop, and the results will be realized after the U.S. market!
As the ancients said: Timing - Location - Harmony, corresponding to the market… Momentum - Price - Volume, none can be missing. Many hands make light work, and the spark is in our hands!
Follow Liu Bei's trend to keep the top burning, stabilize to gain profits over the cycle! $BTC #BinanceABCs $ETH
December 12 BTC/ETH Analysis:
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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US stock market opened high but fell back, with all lines opening the floodgates!
The pullback is coming!
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the main players have started to take profits and exit. Currently, the biggest news is Japan's interest rate hike and tightening liquidity. One should be bullish but not go long. Moreover, the drop in the early morning broke through key levels, and the rebound during the day is just that strong. This market is very straightforward!
The Bitcoin indeed overestimates the rebound strength, as it has not broken through the 90000 level. The real market entry was at 8980. Currently, there is a breakdown below the previous low, with a space of 2800 points. Those holding short positions should reduce their holdings first, just see if the evening rebound can break and stabilize above 8820. If the rebound doesn't reach, it will directly look down to 8600-8400.
Ethereum's drop is very cooperative, just hitting the second target level, with a space of 150 points. Just see if the rebound can break above 3070. If it doesn't stabilize above 3070, it indicates a weak rebound, and it will continue to look down to the two positions 2953-2900
$BTC #巨鲸动向 $ETH
The pullback is coming!
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the main players have started to take profits and exit. Currently, the biggest news is Japan's interest rate hike and tightening liquidity. One should be bullish but not go long. Moreover, the drop in the early morning broke through key levels, and the rebound during the day is just that strong. This market is very straightforward!
The Bitcoin indeed overestimates the rebound strength, as it has not broken through the 90000 level. The real market entry was at 8980. Currently, there is a breakdown below the previous low, with a space of 2800 points. Those holding short positions should reduce their holdings first, just see if the evening rebound can break and stabilize above 8820. If the rebound doesn't reach, it will directly look down to 8600-8400.
Ethereum's drop is very cooperative, just hitting the second target level, with a space of 150 points. Just see if the rebound can break above 3070. If it doesn't stabilize above 3070, it indicates a weak rebound, and it will continue to look down to the two positions 2953-2900
$BTC #巨鲸动向 $ETH
December 15 BTC/ETH Strategy Analysis:
Yen arbitrage tightening may lead to the next round of correction?
Last week, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, prices surged to 94,500 before beginning to pull back. The market did not break through this consolidation structure under the expectation of easing, so this week, under the influence of tightening yen policies, the fear index rose to 16, and the downward pressure on the market has greatly increased, focusing on high volatility!
BTC
Today's weekly line shows a bearish engulfing candle, and the daily line has a large bearish candle breaking the middle support level at 8,760, starting to rebound. Currently, the smaller time-frame moving averages show a volatile pattern, with resistance on the small rebounds seen at 9,060-9,150. As long as it stabilizes above these two levels, the daily level outlook remains bearish.
Focus around the 9,020-9,060 range for volatility, with 9,150 for adding positions, targeting a breakdown towards 8,920-8,760 looking down to 8,400.
ETH
Focus around the 3,134-3,156 range for volatility, targeting a breakdown towards 3,057-3,003 looking down to 2,900.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defense should be determined based on one's actual position!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Yen arbitrage tightening may lead to the next round of correction?
Last week, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, prices surged to 94,500 before beginning to pull back. The market did not break through this consolidation structure under the expectation of easing, so this week, under the influence of tightening yen policies, the fear index rose to 16, and the downward pressure on the market has greatly increased, focusing on high volatility!
BTC
Today's weekly line shows a bearish engulfing candle, and the daily line has a large bearish candle breaking the middle support level at 8,760, starting to rebound. Currently, the smaller time-frame moving averages show a volatile pattern, with resistance on the small rebounds seen at 9,060-9,150. As long as it stabilizes above these two levels, the daily level outlook remains bearish.
Focus around the 9,020-9,060 range for volatility, with 9,150 for adding positions, targeting a breakdown towards 8,920-8,760 looking down to 8,400.
ETH
Focus around the 3,134-3,156 range for volatility, targeting a breakdown towards 3,057-3,003 looking down to 2,900.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defense should be determined based on one's actual position!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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It's simply absurd
Bloomberg strategist: Bitcoin will drop to $10,000 in 2026!
So one shouldn't eat too much; if you eat too much, you become drowsy and talk in your sleep!
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$BTC #BinanceABCs $ETH
Bloomberg strategist: Bitcoin will drop to $10,000 in 2026!
So one shouldn't eat too much; if you eat too much, you become drowsy and talk in your sleep!
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…
…
$BTC #BinanceABCs $ETH
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Important Economic Events This Week:
Tuesday - October Retail Sales Data, November Employment Report
Thursday - November CPI Inflation Data, December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday - October PCE Inflation Data, November Existing Home Sales Data, University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Data, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Data
Additionally, a significant announcement: From Wednesday to Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 0.75%. If successful, it will reach the highest rate in 30 years, leading to a global capital influx, which is crucially sensitive for the cryptocurrency situation!
Furthermore, there will be 5 speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Tuesday - October Retail Sales Data, November Employment Report
Thursday - November CPI Inflation Data, December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday - October PCE Inflation Data, November Existing Home Sales Data, University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Data, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Data
Additionally, a significant announcement: From Wednesday to Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 0.75%. If successful, it will reach the highest rate in 30 years, leading to a global capital influx, which is crucially sensitive for the cryptocurrency situation!
Furthermore, there will be 5 speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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December 15 BTC/ETH Strategy Analysis:
Yen arbitrage tightening may lead to the next round of correction?
Last week, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, prices surged to 94,500 before beginning to pull back. The market did not break through this consolidation structure under the expectation of easing, so this week, under the influence of tightening yen policies, the fear index rose to 16, and the downward pressure on the market has greatly increased, focusing on high volatility!
BTC
Today's weekly line shows a bearish engulfing candle, and the daily line has a large bearish candle breaking the middle support level at 8,760, starting to rebound. Currently, the smaller time-frame moving averages show a volatile pattern, with resistance on the small rebounds seen at 9,060-9,150. As long as it stabilizes above these two levels, the daily level outlook remains bearish.
Focus around the 9,020-9,060 range for volatility, with 9,150 for adding positions, targeting a breakdown towards 8,920-8,760 looking down to 8,400.
ETH
Focus around the 3,134-3,156 range for volatility, targeting a breakdown towards 3,057-3,003 looking down to 2,900.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defense should be determined based on one's actual position!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Yen arbitrage tightening may lead to the next round of correction?
Last week, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, prices surged to 94,500 before beginning to pull back. The market did not break through this consolidation structure under the expectation of easing, so this week, under the influence of tightening yen policies, the fear index rose to 16, and the downward pressure on the market has greatly increased, focusing on high volatility!
BTC
Today's weekly line shows a bearish engulfing candle, and the daily line has a large bearish candle breaking the middle support level at 8,760, starting to rebound. Currently, the smaller time-frame moving averages show a volatile pattern, with resistance on the small rebounds seen at 9,060-9,150. As long as it stabilizes above these two levels, the daily level outlook remains bearish.
Focus around the 9,020-9,060 range for volatility, with 9,150 for adding positions, targeting a breakdown towards 8,920-8,760 looking down to 8,400.
ETH
Focus around the 3,134-3,156 range for volatility, targeting a breakdown towards 3,057-3,003 looking down to 2,900.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defense should be determined based on one's actual position!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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There are many paths, it depends on how to choose!
The recent market is indeed not very friendly to retail investors, with frequent up and down spikes, easily triggering stop losses. During the day, everyone should pay attention to the 9140 position, where low entries on the left side were not offered, leading to a short entry on the right side after a break.
After the US market opened, the market weakened and began to retrace, with lower support targets of 9060-8920 hit, the overall 2000-point range is still achievable.
Apart from different positions, Ether's trend is basically the same. The previous post mentioned the 3220 position, breaking out to exit long positions and entering short on the right side, with a minimum retracement down to 3041, providing a small 200-point range!
I am Liu Bei, exchanging small risks for periodic profits, creating my own trading system!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
The recent market is indeed not very friendly to retail investors, with frequent up and down spikes, easily triggering stop losses. During the day, everyone should pay attention to the 9140 position, where low entries on the left side were not offered, leading to a short entry on the right side after a break.
After the US market opened, the market weakened and began to retrace, with lower support targets of 9060-8920 hit, the overall 2000-point range is still achievable.
Apart from different positions, Ether's trend is basically the same. The previous post mentioned the 3220 position, breaking out to exit long positions and entering short on the right side, with a minimum retracement down to 3041, providing a small 200-point range!
I am Liu Bei, exchanging small risks for periodic profits, creating my own trading system!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
December 12 BTC/ETH Analysis:
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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The market is as still as a dead dog during the day!
Is this the only fluctuation on Friday?
Again, waiting for the US market's rhythm. Currently, we are at the hourly level pullback; as long as it does not break below 9140, it's still fine. If it breaks, short-term long positions have to be given up first, and we need to look for longs at the lower levels of 9060-8920. Currently, the daily and four-hour moving averages have formed a golden cross, and today we will definitely test the 9450 position.
Ethereum is really weak today; the big coin didn't follow the rhythm when it surged early in the morning. If it breaks below 3220 during the pullback, consider exiting long positions. The lower support is at 3175-3000, and overall, we follow the big coin; the upward pressure to watch for is 3330-3450.
Focus on Liu Bei's stable trading system, exchanging small risks for periodic profits; firm execution will surely lead to your own harvest period!
$BTC #美联储FOMC会议 $ETH
Is this the only fluctuation on Friday?
Again, waiting for the US market's rhythm. Currently, we are at the hourly level pullback; as long as it does not break below 9140, it's still fine. If it breaks, short-term long positions have to be given up first, and we need to look for longs at the lower levels of 9060-8920. Currently, the daily and four-hour moving averages have formed a golden cross, and today we will definitely test the 9450 position.
Ethereum is really weak today; the big coin didn't follow the rhythm when it surged early in the morning. If it breaks below 3220 during the pullback, consider exiting long positions. The lower support is at 3175-3000, and overall, we follow the big coin; the upward pressure to watch for is 3330-3450.
Focus on Liu Bei's stable trading system, exchanging small risks for periodic profits; firm execution will surely lead to your own harvest period!
$BTC #美联储FOMC会议 $ETH
The rebound will be late, but it will come!
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$BTC
#美联储降息
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$BTC
#美联储降息
See original
December 12 BTC/ETH Analysis:
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Will cryptocurrency welcome a surge in liquidity?
Congress is formally urging the SEC to approve the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 401K retirement plan, which, if approved, will bring significant liquidity to the market! Yesterday, the peak rebound of the market reached 93500 with an overall space of 4000. As for the altcoin, it is indeed a bit weak; the whale with 550 million cannot move it!
BTC
Currently, the daily line is still in a volatile box structure, and the hourly level shows a need for a pullback on decreasing volume. Pay attention to the support at 9140 during the day; as long as the four-hour doesn’t break down, it will continue to rise. If it breaks below 9140 and cannot recover, consider entering on the right side to look at the support below at 9060-8920.
Around the 9140-9180 range, the target is 9280-9350, with a breakthrough looking at 9450.
ETH
Around the 3193-3216 range, the target is 3264, with a breakthrough looking at 3330-3372.
Short-term trading is flexible, and the defense should be based on your actual position situation! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
See original
The stars do not ask the traveler, and time does not disappoint the earnest.
Are many troops waiting for that glimpse?
The US market fluctuated before and after, accumulating strength, and the early morning trend came to fruition as expected; what should come will come, right?
Yesterday, the low of 8900 was ambushed; did everyone hold on? The highest rebound reached 93500, and what is there to fear with a 4000-point space? The small fluctuations and corrections are only to wash away the unsteady chips, allowing for a heavier upward movement!
As for Ethereum, I really didn't expect it to be this weak. More than 500 million in orders couldn't push it up, the highest rebound reached 3275, and there is still a 100-point space for those who held on!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Are many troops waiting for that glimpse?
The US market fluctuated before and after, accumulating strength, and the early morning trend came to fruition as expected; what should come will come, right?
Yesterday, the low of 8900 was ambushed; did everyone hold on? The highest rebound reached 93500, and what is there to fear with a 4000-point space? The small fluctuations and corrections are only to wash away the unsteady chips, allowing for a heavier upward movement!
As for Ethereum, I really didn't expect it to be this weak. More than 500 million in orders couldn't push it up, the highest rebound reached 3275, and there is still a 100-point space for those who held on!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
December 11 BTC/ETH Strategy Analysis:
Interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, but will the actual landing be bearish?
From Powell's speech early this morning, we learned that the interest rate level remains neutral, and we will look at inflation risks moving forward. This perspective has indeed become more dovish, leaving room for future hawkish comments from Harker to raise interest rates. Yesterday's BTC target was 9450, and ETH target was 3300 to hit 3450 for a complete profit-taking. Moving forward, the market may see normal pullbacks due to the dual impact of institutions ending profits and the increased scale of U.S. Treasury bonds putting short-term funds under pressure. The benefits of interest rate cuts will not be immediately apparent!
BTC
From the daily chart perspective, the shrinking trading volume has created a divergence that limits the bullish engulfing pattern's upward momentum. The market remains in a fluctuating box structure, and short-term declines will prioritize rebounds. As long as the price does not drop below 8930 during the day, there is still upward space.
Around the 8940-8890 range, the target is to break through 9200 and look towards 9320-9450.
ETH
Around the 3167-3188 range, the target is to break through 3252 and look towards 3300-3358.
Short-term trading should be flexible, with defense based on actual position situations! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, but will the actual landing be bearish?
From Powell's speech early this morning, we learned that the interest rate level remains neutral, and we will look at inflation risks moving forward. This perspective has indeed become more dovish, leaving room for future hawkish comments from Harker to raise interest rates. Yesterday's BTC target was 9450, and ETH target was 3300 to hit 3450 for a complete profit-taking. Moving forward, the market may see normal pullbacks due to the dual impact of institutions ending profits and the increased scale of U.S. Treasury bonds putting short-term funds under pressure. The benefits of interest rate cuts will not be immediately apparent!
BTC
From the daily chart perspective, the shrinking trading volume has created a divergence that limits the bullish engulfing pattern's upward momentum. The market remains in a fluctuating box structure, and short-term declines will prioritize rebounds. As long as the price does not drop below 8930 during the day, there is still upward space.
Around the 8940-8890 range, the target is to break through 9200 and look towards 9320-9450.
ETH
Around the 3167-3188 range, the target is to break through 3252 and look towards 3300-3358.
Short-term trading should be flexible, with defense based on actual position situations! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
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Irritable, an anonymous giant whale goes long on 140,000 ETH!
Not sure if there's some insider information!
Currently, his long position has exceeded $446 million. In the past half hour, he has added another 20,000, bringing his latest position to 140,094.52, worth $446 million, with an opening price of $3,179.54, floating profit of $693,000, and only about $50 million away from the short position size (500 million) before the flash crash at 1011!
This is quite good for the market, but I'm afraid that the doge farmer may mistakenly harm the whale and hurt the long army brothers🥲
$ETH #美联储降息
Not sure if there's some insider information!
Currently, his long position has exceeded $446 million. In the past half hour, he has added another 20,000, bringing his latest position to 140,094.52, worth $446 million, with an opening price of $3,179.54, floating profit of $693,000, and only about $50 million away from the short position size (500 million) before the flash crash at 1011!
This is quite good for the market, but I'm afraid that the doge farmer may mistakenly harm the whale and hurt the long army brothers🥲
$ETH #美联储降息
See original
But it's just a feint
The drop in the pin can rebound, indicating that the buying pressure is still there, don't panic!
It's another early morning market, just wait!
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$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
The drop in the pin can rebound, indicating that the buying pressure is still there, don't panic!
It's another early morning market, just wait!
…
…
…
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
See original
The liquidity tsunami of 2026 is about to arrive
If you think that the Fed's interest rate cuts are the main source of liquidity influx in 2026, you are very mistaken.
In addition to the additional interest rate cuts in 2026, we will also see:
Trump's tariff stimulus checks
The continued growth of the AI boom
The new Fed chairman appointed by Trump
Expected capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion
Quantitative easing by the Fed (but not really quantitative easing)
SEC relaxing regulations
Trump's commitment to keep the stock market at historical highs
The U.S. annual deficit spending reaching trillions of dollars
Explosive earnings growth of S&P 500 companies
Global fiscal stimulus
Global M2 money supply hitting a record high
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
If you think that the Fed's interest rate cuts are the main source of liquidity influx in 2026, you are very mistaken.
In addition to the additional interest rate cuts in 2026, we will also see:
Trump's tariff stimulus checks
The continued growth of the AI boom
The new Fed chairman appointed by Trump
Expected capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion
Quantitative easing by the Fed (but not really quantitative easing)
SEC relaxing regulations
Trump's commitment to keep the stock market at historical highs
The U.S. annual deficit spending reaching trillions of dollars
Explosive earnings growth of S&P 500 companies
Global fiscal stimulus
Global M2 money supply hitting a record high
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
See original
Those who can buy are apprentices, while those who can sell are masters.
Before Powell's interest rate cut speech yesterday, panic spread in the market, and most investors were worried that "the interest rate cut would lead to a market crash." However, from the dual signals of market structure and capital inflow, the short-term rebound window has become clear.
We accurately anchored the key range, completely capturing profits within the BTC 9150-9450 and ETH 3300-3450 segments, decisively taking profits and exiting. The subsequent market risk factor has sharply increased, and there is no longer a need to continue gambling.
The true essence of trading has never been about greedily chasing every wave of the market, but about precisely seizing the opportunity to secure profits before the turning point of the trend arrives.
Retail traders must recognize and accept their cycles. The market oscillates between "undervalued" and "price bubble." Trading is counterintuitive; the tension in trading arises from your fear of the uncertainty of the unknown, which amplifies the cost of trial and error, ultimately leading to "fetching water with a bamboo basket!"
Focus on Liu Bei's stable trading system, exchange small risks for cyclical profits, and steadfast execution will surely bring about your own harvest period!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Before Powell's interest rate cut speech yesterday, panic spread in the market, and most investors were worried that "the interest rate cut would lead to a market crash." However, from the dual signals of market structure and capital inflow, the short-term rebound window has become clear.
We accurately anchored the key range, completely capturing profits within the BTC 9150-9450 and ETH 3300-3450 segments, decisively taking profits and exiting. The subsequent market risk factor has sharply increased, and there is no longer a need to continue gambling.
The true essence of trading has never been about greedily chasing every wave of the market, but about precisely seizing the opportunity to secure profits before the turning point of the trend arrives.
Retail traders must recognize and accept their cycles. The market oscillates between "undervalued" and "price bubble." Trading is counterintuitive; the tension in trading arises from your fear of the uncertainty of the unknown, which amplifies the cost of trial and error, ultimately leading to "fetching water with a bamboo basket!"
Focus on Liu Bei's stable trading system, exchange small risks for cyclical profits, and steadfast execution will surely bring about your own harvest period!
$BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
See original
December 11 BTC/ETH Strategy Analysis:
Interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, but will the actual landing be bearish?
From Powell's speech early this morning, we learned that the interest rate level remains neutral, and we will look at inflation risks moving forward. This perspective has indeed become more dovish, leaving room for future hawkish comments from Harker to raise interest rates. Yesterday's BTC target was 9450, and ETH target was 3300 to hit 3450 for a complete profit-taking. Moving forward, the market may see normal pullbacks due to the dual impact of institutions ending profits and the increased scale of U.S. Treasury bonds putting short-term funds under pressure. The benefits of interest rate cuts will not be immediately apparent!
BTC
From the daily chart perspective, the shrinking trading volume has created a divergence that limits the bullish engulfing pattern's upward momentum. The market remains in a fluctuating box structure, and short-term declines will prioritize rebounds. As long as the price does not drop below 8930 during the day, there is still upward space.
Around the 8940-8890 range, the target is to break through 9200 and look towards 9320-9450.
ETH
Around the 3167-3188 range, the target is to break through 3252 and look towards 3300-3358.
Short-term trading should be flexible, with defense based on actual position situations! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
Interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, but will the actual landing be bearish?
From Powell's speech early this morning, we learned that the interest rate level remains neutral, and we will look at inflation risks moving forward. This perspective has indeed become more dovish, leaving room for future hawkish comments from Harker to raise interest rates. Yesterday's BTC target was 9450, and ETH target was 3300 to hit 3450 for a complete profit-taking. Moving forward, the market may see normal pullbacks due to the dual impact of institutions ending profits and the increased scale of U.S. Treasury bonds putting short-term funds under pressure. The benefits of interest rate cuts will not be immediately apparent!
BTC
From the daily chart perspective, the shrinking trading volume has created a divergence that limits the bullish engulfing pattern's upward momentum. The market remains in a fluctuating box structure, and short-term declines will prioritize rebounds. As long as the price does not drop below 8930 during the day, there is still upward space.
Around the 8940-8890 range, the target is to break through 9200 and look towards 9320-9450.
ETH
Around the 3167-3188 range, the target is to break through 3252 and look towards 3300-3358.
Short-term trading should be flexible, with defense based on actual position situations! $BTC #美联储降息 $ETH
See original
Powell's speech has landed, can the bulls meet expectations?
The ideal wind will surely blow into reality, the nights endured will turn into light, and in every seemingly ordinary day you have walked through, the energy accumulated and knowledge settled will scatter like stars, illuminating the path beneath your feet!
Looking back at today's thoughts, the K-line trends are presented one by one on the market, bottoming out and getting in, with a target of three lines achieving profit-taking, Bitcoin has a space of 3000 points, Ethereum has a space of 150 points, how much have you obtained?
As long as the direction is correct, distance is not a concern, time will witness miracles!
The market is never wrong; the only mistakes are in thoughts and strategies. Common mistakes in trading are often swayed by emotions, failing to plan, and gambling in an uncertain market with real positions. Does this approach yield the expected results in terms of positions?
$BTC #美联储FOMC会议 $ETH
The ideal wind will surely blow into reality, the nights endured will turn into light, and in every seemingly ordinary day you have walked through, the energy accumulated and knowledge settled will scatter like stars, illuminating the path beneath your feet!
Looking back at today's thoughts, the K-line trends are presented one by one on the market, bottoming out and getting in, with a target of three lines achieving profit-taking, Bitcoin has a space of 3000 points, Ethereum has a space of 150 points, how much have you obtained?
As long as the direction is correct, distance is not a concern, time will witness miracles!
The market is never wrong; the only mistakes are in thoughts and strategies. Common mistakes in trading are often swayed by emotions, failing to plan, and gambling in an uncertain market with real positions. Does this approach yield the expected results in terms of positions?
$BTC #美联储FOMC会议 $ETH
December 10 BTC/ETH Analysis:
Shadow Chairman Hasett's remarks sparked a bullish sentiment!
Last night, after the US market, Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Hasett revealed ultra-hawkish comments: the rate cut could exceed 25 basis points, a view supported by Trump. Meanwhile, Bank of America indicated a possibility of expanding its balance sheet. Upon the news, institutions aggressively accumulated positions, leading to a surge!
BTC
The four-hour chart just completed a "wedge breakout", with short-term moving averages forming a golden cross. It rebounded to the daily MA60 but faced resistance and corrected. Pay attention to the support at 9180 for minor pullbacks; as long as it holds above this level, the bullish pattern remains. If it breaks down, watch for entry on the right side, with support below at 9080-8930.
In the range of 9150-9190, a bullish target of 9320-9450 can be expected, with a breakthrough look towards 9630.
ETH
A large influx of institutional ETFs is driving a strong rally, almost touching the daily resistance level of 3450. During the day, prioritize observing the strength of the pullback, with support at 3280. If the minor pullback holds, there is still upward potential; if it breaks down, pay attention to 3246-3200.
In the range of 3275-3296, a bullish target of 3345-3398 can be expected, with a breakthrough look towards 3450.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defensive measures should be determined based on your actual position!
$BTC #加密市场反弹 $ETH
Shadow Chairman Hasett's remarks sparked a bullish sentiment!
Last night, after the US market, Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Hasett revealed ultra-hawkish comments: the rate cut could exceed 25 basis points, a view supported by Trump. Meanwhile, Bank of America indicated a possibility of expanding its balance sheet. Upon the news, institutions aggressively accumulated positions, leading to a surge!
BTC
The four-hour chart just completed a "wedge breakout", with short-term moving averages forming a golden cross. It rebounded to the daily MA60 but faced resistance and corrected. Pay attention to the support at 9180 for minor pullbacks; as long as it holds above this level, the bullish pattern remains. If it breaks down, watch for entry on the right side, with support below at 9080-8930.
In the range of 9150-9190, a bullish target of 9320-9450 can be expected, with a breakthrough look towards 9630.
ETH
A large influx of institutional ETFs is driving a strong rally, almost touching the daily resistance level of 3450. During the day, prioritize observing the strength of the pullback, with support at 3280. If the minor pullback holds, there is still upward potential; if it breaks down, pay attention to 3246-3200.
In the range of 3275-3296, a bullish target of 3345-3398 can be expected, with a breakthrough look towards 3450.
Short-term trading is flexible, and defensive measures should be determined based on your actual position!
$BTC #加密市场反弹 $ETH
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