币富迪迪

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【Financial Morning | December 17, 2025】
1. The S&P 500 index has fallen for three consecutive days, technology stocks rebounded supporting the Nasdaq, Tesla hit a new intraday high; the offshore yuan reached a new 14-month high; U.S. oil hit its lowest intraday price since 2021.
2. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in October saw the largest decline in five years, with growth expected in November but overall still weak, and the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high.
3. U.S. retail sales in October remained flat overall, but core indicators exceeded expectations supporting fourth-quarter growth.
4. The Trump administration threatened to use "all tools" to retaliate against the EU's digital tax, specifically naming companies like SAP and Siemens.
5. Trump plans to deliver a national speech at 9 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, with the White House stating he may preview some policies to be launched next year.
6. The Central Financial Office: Investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the supply side of real estate must strictly control new increments and activate existing stock.
7. The EU may abandon the "full ban" on fuel vehicles by 2035, reducing emission targets to 90% and allowing the sale of hybrid vehicles.
8. Vanke proposed to extend the principal repayment of medium-term notes by 12 months and provide corresponding credit enhancement measures by the issuer.
9. Xpeng has obtained an L3 autonomous driving road test license, becoming the third in the country, as competition with Tesla's FSD intensifies.
10. Foldable iPhone coming next year! Apple's release roadmap for the next two years has been revealed, with flagship phones increasing from five models to seven models.
11. Reminder: "The second domestic GPU stock" Muxi Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market on Wednesday.

#非农就业数据 Today is another exciting scene, everyone be prepared for risk control!

$ETH Reminder: Don't rush to buy the dip!

2025.12.16 Top Trader Market Analysis

Feng Ge:
⚠️ Bitcoin is bearish this week with an unchanged target of 80000.
✅ The Bitcoin adjustment is over, and the main rebound is to go short, with the bearish target unchanged.

Chenge:
⚠️ A Bitcoin crash is coming!
✅ The Bitcoin descending wedge structure has broken down, focusing on the support level of 80500; if it breaks, the target continues to be 68000; don't rush to catch the bottom!
✅ Ethereum has broken the support level of 3060, we need to pay attention to whether the 4-hour support line can hold; currently, there are no signals of a stop in the decline, and it continues to look bearish.

Bitcoin General:
✅ Bitcoin's decline looks at the WXY structure, currently in the W wave decline. The C wave of the W wave is a 5-wave downward structure, and the fourth wave's rebound has likely completed. Currently looking at a decline breaking the previous low point of 80600's C5 decline. Continue to hold short positions.

【Financial Breakfast | December 16, 2025】
1. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of non-farm data, with U.S. stocks slightly down; the S&P 500 index fell by 0.2%, Tesla reached a new high for the year, Broadcom and Oracle continued to decline, iRobot plummeted over 70%; the renminbi strengthened; WTI dropped to its lowest level since February 2021; cryptocurrencies fell sharply.
2. Federal Reserve “number three”: After last week's interest rate cut, monetary policy is ready for next year.
3. Hassett's momentum is unstable, Trump’s confidant nominated Walsh as the new Federal Reserve head.
4. The magazine "Qiushi" published an important article by Xi titled "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move".
5. China released November economic data, showing resilience in industrial production, continued support from high-tech manufacturing, consumer spending fell to a yearly low, with fixed investment and real estate under pressure. November housing prices in 70 cities: prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell overall month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline expanding.
6. China’s first batch of L3 autonomous driving received approval for entry; driverless technology enters a new era of "commercial application".
7. Vanke proposed to optimize the bond extension scheme, seeking to extend the grace period and increase credit enhancement measures.
8. NVIDIA released the Nemotron 3 open-source model series: hybrid MoE architecture + 1 million token context.
9. The U.S. government, in collaboration with companies like Apple, Microsoft, and OpenAI, is recruiting 1,000 engineers to build "technological strength".
10. The pioneer of robotic vacuums, iRobot, plummeted over 70% and announced bankruptcy; Chinese creditors may take over.
11. Reminder: The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November and October retail sales data will be released on Tuesday.

This week's major cryptocurrency events are as follows❤️❤️ Key highlights:
1️⃣12.15 SEC cryptocurrency working group holds a roundtable on financial regulation and privacy
2️⃣12.18 U.S. November CPI data
3️⃣12.19 Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision

This morning, $ETH briefly dropped to $3024, causing insider big shots' ETH orders to continue executing
(Address: 0xb317d2bc2d3d2df5fa441b5bae0ab9d8b07283ae)

Currently, the total position has increased to 677 million USD, with an unrealized loss of 22.31 million USD, among which the ETH holdings have exceeded 180,000 coins
▶︎ ETH: Holdings 180,935.11 coins (556 million USD), opening price $3,169.42, unrealized loss 17.44 million USD
▶︎ BTC: Holdings 1000 coins (90.32 million USD), opening price $91,506.7, unrealized loss 2.96 million USD
▶︎ SOL: Holdings 250,000 coins (32.52 million USD), opening price $137.53, unrealized loss 1.89 million USD

2025.12.15 Top Trader Analysis

Feng Ge:
⚠️ Bitcoin long-term short positions continue to be held, short-term rebounds continue to short high, this week looking bearish around eighty thousand.
✅ Bitcoin bullish volume is exhausted, mainly shorting on rebounds.

Chenge:
⚠️ Bitcoin is accelerating downwards!
✅ Bitcoin's descending wedge structure has broken down, with a bearish target around 68000. The trend line of the downward trend has previously been mainly bearish.
✅ Ethereum has broken through and is now retesting (3060), pay attention to whether it can hold; need to monitor if the 4-hour low can be broken, if broken, the bearish logic is established, and the rebound ends.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ Bitcoin's decline looks like a WXY structure, currently in the W wave decline. The C wave of the W wave is a 5-wave downward structure, currently looking at a drop breaking the previous low of 80600's C5 drop. The pressure zone for the rebound is in the 90-91 range.

Ethereum Prysm client experiences mainnet incident: Resource exhaustion leads to large-scale block and witness loss

The Prysm team released a report on the mainnet incident stating that on December 4th, during the Ethereum mainnet Fusaka period, nearly all Prysm beacon nodes experienced resource exhaustion while processing specific attestations, resulting in an inability to timely respond to validator requests, causing a large number of block and witness losses.
The impact of the incident ranged from epoch 411439 to 411480, with a total of 42 epochs, where 248 blocks were missing out of 1344 slots, resulting in a missing rate of approximately 18.5%; the network participation rate once dropped to 75%, with validators losing witness rewards of about 382 ETH. The root cause was that Prysm received attestations from nodes that may have been out of sync with the mainnet, which referenced the block root of the previous epoch. To verify their legitimacy, Prysm repeatedly replayed the old epoch state and executed high-cost epoch transitions, leading to resource exhaustion under high concurrency. The related defect originated from Prysm PR 15965, which had been deployed to the testnet a month ago but did not trigger the same scenario.
The official temporary solution provided is to enable the --disable-last-epoch-target parameter in version v7.0.0; the subsequently released v7.0.1 and v7.1.0 have included long-term fixes, avoiding repeated playback of historical states by using head state to validate attestations. Prysm stated that the issue gradually alleviated after December 4th, 4:45 UTC, and by epoch 411480, the network participation rate recovered to above 95%.
The Prysm team pointed out that this incident highlights the importance of client diversity; if a single client accounts for more than one-third, it may lead to a temporary inability to finalize; if it exceeds two-thirds, there is a risk of an invalid chain at finality. They also reflected on the unclear communication of feature switches and the testing environment's failure to simulate large-scale out-of-sync nodes, and will improve testing strategies and configuration management in the future.

2025.12.14 Top Trader Analysis

Peak Brother:
⚠️ How will Bitcoin perform next week?
✅ Bitcoin's weekly price has effectively broken below the 50-week moving average (102000), entering a downtrend; the 4-hour resistance level is at 94000, but it has not led to a significant downward movement, and going long is not recommended. If the resistance turns into support, then considering a short-term long position can be contemplated.

Chenge:
⚠️ The risk of Bitcoin falling is very high!
✅ Bitcoin's daily candlestick formed a doji, and there was not much fluctuation over the weekend, maintaining a bearish outlook. The current market focuses on whether the 4-hour level can form a golden cross.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ Not updated!

2025.12.13 Top Trader Market Analysis

Peak Brother:
⚠️ Why is Bitcoin bound to decline?
✅ Bitcoin is looking at a new daily level of decline, targeting the previous low (view remains unchanged).

Chenge:
⚠️ Bitcoin is about to break below support!
✅ Bitcoin needs to pay attention to whether it can retest the downtrend line over the weekend, looking for another short opportunity; at the same time, if the support line does not break, we cannot continue to look bearish. An effective break will see an equal distance decline, targeting the previous low around 86000.
✅ Ethereum tested the support level of 3060, pay attention to whether it can break below; an effective break looks towards around 2700. Also, watch for resistance levels, waiting for short opportunities; currently, the smaller time frame is in a pullback phase after a breakout, and watch to see if it can break through the level of 31470; we cannot continue to look bearish.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ Bitcoin's decline looks at the WXY structure, currently in the W wave decline. There is a high possibility of a small level of oscillating movements, but we are looking for a decline that breaks below the previous low of 80600.

$ETH Remember to take profits on the empty order! I expect a big rebound to come soon, and the insider has already increased the long position to over 500 million!!

2025.12.12 Top Trader Market Analysis

Peak Brother:
✅ Bitcoin is looking at a new daily level drop, targeting previous lows.

Chenge:
⚠️ Shorting opportunities for Bitcoin at high levels! The Bitcoin market is a big trap for the unwary!
✅ Bitcoin is focusing on the daily resistance level of 94200; maintain a bearish outlook until it breaks.
✅ Ethereum has just tested the resistance level above 3400 but failed to break and hold; continue to be bearish, waiting for short opportunities. If it breaks 3400, a change in strategy will be needed.

Bitcoin General:
✅ No updates today!

【Financial Breakfast | December 12, 2025】
1. Buybacks on dips drove the S&P 500 index to a new closing high, while AI concerns pressured the Nasdaq, and Oracle fell 11%; European stock markets rose; crude oil futures fell 1.5%; gold futures rose over 2%, and silver and copper set new historical highs.
2. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate reductions, focus on stabilizing the real estate market, actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, deeply implement special actions to boost consumption, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector.
3. The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States increased by 44,000 last week, the largest increase since 2020, while continuing claims plummeted to an eight-month low.
4. The gold "hoarding trend" has receded, and the U.S. trade deficit in goods fell to a five-year low in September.
5. Broadcom's AI chip revenue surged 74% last quarter, expected to double this quarter, but backlog orders were disappointing, warning that due to AI product sales, total profit margins are narrowing. Broadcom's stock initially rose 4% in after-hours trading but then turned down, at one point dropping over 5%.
6. OpenAI released GPT-5.2 to challenge Gemini, claiming to have the strongest agent coding, surpassing human experts, and Altman is expected to lift the red alert in January. Altman expressed excitement about the "upcoming chips."
7. Disney invested $1 billion in OpenAI and authorized Sora to use iconic characters.
8. TSMC's monthly production of CoWoS is expected to reach 127,000 pieces next year, with Nvidia capturing more than half, followed closely by Broadcom and AMD.
9. Rivian takes a big step to challenge Nvidia: AI chips + L4 route announced, but stock price plummeted by 10% at one point.
10. Ciena's Q4 revenue increased by 20% to $1.35 billion, setting a new historical high.
11. Auto companies collectively pressured, the EU postponed the release of the new regulation for "70% made in Europe," BMW angrily condemned this as "extremely dangerous."