There are no winners in a contract; 100 profitable trades can be completely wiped out and reduced to zero by one losing trade. Many people will say: I can set a stop loss. My answer is: Yes, in the short term you will set a stop loss, but the result of setting a stop loss is infinite stop losses. Ultimately, when you are optimistic about a certain market trend and wish to avoid being stopped out by a spike, you will remove the stop loss. Often, this is the beginning of falling into the abyss.
BIT居士
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There are no winners in contracts; 100 profitable trades can be completely wiped out and reduced to zero by one loss. Many people will say: I can set a stop loss. My answer is: Yes, for a short time you will set a stop loss, but the outcome of setting a stop loss is infinite stop losses. Ultimately, when you are optimistic about a certain market movement and do not want to be stopped out by a spike, you will remove the stop loss. This is often the beginning of falling into the abyss.
Many people do not understand that a 100x contract does not mean that ordinary people can multiply their own funds by 100 times and earn at a speed of 100 times; on the contrary, a 100x contract means that your speed of losing money is multiplied by 100. Many people are unwilling to believe this, but it is the truth.
The perpetual earners you see in the market, KOLs, in real life, 99% do not earn more than you do, and 99% lose much more than you do. Because their points of making money do not come from doing contracts themselves; they are making money from you. If they do not lie and speak both ways, how can they get everyone’s attention?
The manipulators love everyone to trade contracts because it is easy to harvest, but what do they fear the most? They fear everyone doing regular investments.
In this round, most altcoins have hardly experienced a bull market, with only a few coins being able to outperform Bitcoin, as the bull-bear cycle of altcoins has already failed. Why can’t Bitcoin? I firmly believe: The bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin has shifted from being driven by the halving cycle to a prolonged bull market driven by institutions, Wall Street, sovereign wealth funds, and ETFs. If this four-year cycle fails, it will be even more certain that it will fail in the future.
I will start doing only spot regular investments on January 1, 2026, with a capital of 5 million, and the investment period will last for 1 year. We will see in the next bull market whether the KOLs trading contracts earn more or if my regular investment in spot Bitcoin earns more. For those who want to insist on regular investments together, we can form a group and stick to it, as this is not a simple task. The biggest challenge lies in: sticking to the original viewpoint and not being hindered or disturbed by anything in the regular investment plan.
This week, the US CPI, employment data, along with major adjustments in US stock indices, are about to trigger a liquidity explosion in the market! Don't think this is just a matter for US stocks; the crypto market is now tied to traditional markets like grasshoppers on the same rope. Core focus on CPI: If inflation data exceeds expectations, the dream of interest rate cuts will be shattered, the dollar will become more expensive, and all risk assets (including Bitcoin) may face a liquidity drain.
The Federal Reserve has officially taken action: Starting today, it will directly purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds every month! This means significant liquidity will continuously flow into the market, and a new round of capital influx has already begun. Simply put, the Federal Reserve is actively 'transfusing blood' into the financial system. This is not an ordinary interest rate cut, but a direct expansion of the balance sheet—injecting cash into the market by purchasing government bonds, lowering long-term interest rates, and stimulating banks to lend and invest. Combined with the previous six consecutive interest rate cuts, the signal from this policy combination is clearer than ever: stabilizing the economy and preventing risks has become the current absolute priority!
December 9 news, due to the previous funding interruption by the U.S. government that led to the department shutdown, the latest schedule list released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) report originally scheduled for October 2025 will not be published as planned. According to its latest arrangement, the October data will be postponed to January 14, 2026, and will be released together with the similarly delayed PPI report for November 2025.
The Chairman of the US SEC personally stated: The cryptocurrency bill is about to pass. This is not a guess, it's a signal! Polymarket is back in the US, and Solana spot ETF has quietly launched - none of this is a coincidence, but a systematic 'compliance offensive'
Bitcoin has now risen from 81000 to 91000 in the past few days · US stock futures are experiencing significant volatility · The US dollar index has sharply dropped in the short term Behind this lie three major doubts: 1️⃣ Why choose to do this during a period of tight liquidity at the end of the year? 2️⃣ Does the emergency meeting involve a major policy shift? 3️⃣ Will the successor be a hawk or a dove?
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that the U.S. economy has seen almost no growth recently, like a wheel stuck in the mud—unable to move. Consumption is polarized: only the wealthy continue to spend, while the purchasing power of ordinary people continues to shrink, and the business of supermarkets and restaurants is visibly sluggish.
December interest rate cuts, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and other major banks are also calling for several more cuts, as the signs of a slowing U.S. economy become increasingly apparent. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, money in the market increases, the dollar depreciates, and smart money is likely to flow into assets like Bitcoin. Looking back at the previous interest rate cut cycle, Bitcoin performed brilliantly.
In the past thirty years, Japan's interest rates have been among the lowest in the world. Global institutions have borrowed cheap yen and converted it into dollars to buy various assets: US stocks, gold, commodities, and even including BTC, ETH, BNB that we see every day... In simple terms, Japan's low interest rates are the "cheap oil" for the global asset rise. However, this system is now reversing.
It shouldn't be this way Changing positions from big pancake to all-in on altcoins Chose Dogecoin, which I once thought was a mainstream coin that went through several cycles Hoping for the arrival of the altcoin season A wave of turnaround But after all the struggles What came was a position cut in half and then cut again Two months ago In a hurry to break even, I used leverage to borrow coins Borrowed 30,000 USDT and bought in halfway up the mountain Now The market keeps falling Watching the liquidation line getting closer I'm really anxious Should I cut my losses or hold on? Where should I go from here? $DOGE $BTC
Now I increasingly feel that the people manipulating the Bitcoin market are setting up a trap, which aligns with my viewpoint from yesterday. What kind of trap is it? It's the opposite of the retail investors' trap. Based on past experiences, October and November are the best months for Bitcoin's market performance each year. Therefore, most players in the crypto space will leverage long positions to take advantage of the price increase during these two months. However, the market often behaves in the opposite manner. Who is behind this? The exchanges. The exchanges have all the data from everyone, including fund inflows and Bitcoin outflows. They also know everyone's liquidation price. The violent light leverage behavior on October 11 was orchestrated by the exchanges. At the same time, Bitcoin has reached what is supposed to be the beginning of a four-year cycle bear market. The exchanges shift the blame onto the bull and bear cycles to distance themselves from the situation. Now, they have almost cleared out the long positions. They have also cultivated the habit of shorting at highs among traders. Following this logic, the market often moves in the opposite direction. Currently, most people in the market are filled with the belief that Bitcoin will drop below BlackRock's ETF cost line of 84,000. The target price is the MicroStrategy cost line of 74,000. After this round of crazy declines, most people in the market are afraid to buy and are filled with panic, fearing a drop to 74,000, which leads them to withdraw funds and place orders at 74,000. However, the market will not meet everyone's expectations; the next market movement will be a violent clearing of short leverage. This clearing will be extremely profitable because of the habitual shorting at highs, creating a continuous flow of short funds waiting to be harvested until the market reaches a point where people are afraid to short, just like now when everyone is afraid to buy the dip.
If this theory fails, it will not stop at 74,000 as people think, but will go lower until those who bought the dip at 74,000 are cleared out. However, at this point, many people are extremely panicked and are keeping funds to wait for the dip at 74,000. This position is exactly what the manipulators want to achieve because many people are not in the market, and the short funds have reached a massive amount. Therefore, this position is quite suitable for a violent upward surge to clear leverage. Hence, my view is that Bitcoin will not drop to 74,000. Instead, it will violently clear shorts and rise to 138,000. It will either drop below 74,000 and fall to 60,000, the price of the latest mining machine, or break through 106,000 and surge to 138,000. The latter has a higher probability.
Federal Reserve officials "pour cold water" on market expectations Just as the market was wildly speculating about interest rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials collectively came out to "cool down" the situation. Bullard candidly expressed concerns about the 3% inflation rate, while Harker was even harsher, warning that further rate cuts could trigger financial risks. Upon hearing this, the interest rate market immediately "changed its face," feeling that a rate cut in December was basically out of the question.
The Federal Reserve has quietly turned its guns. This long-lasting liquidity feast is about to come to an end. The crypto market is right at the forefront of the storm. The familiar harvesting script is playing out again: First, a massive influx pushes asset prices up, then suddenly tightens at the height of market frenzy, leaving a mess behind.
Harvard University increased its investment in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by 250% in the third quarter
According to Cointelegraph, Harvard University increased its investment in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by 250% in the third quarter. Harvard Management Company reported that as of September 30, it held over 6.8 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), worth $442.8 million.Harvard University first disclosed holding approximately 1.9 million shares of IBIT in August, valued at $116.6 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stated that university investments in ETFs are very rare, and Harvard's IBIT investment only accounts for 1% of its total endowment fund.Harvard University also increased its investments in gold and technology companies, including Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, and purchased shares of Klarna and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.