趋势拐点
三大原则：第一，轻仓试试水，别一把梭；第二，闲钱玩玩就好，别动生活费；第三，看到利润别贪，套牢了也别慌割
40 Following
325 Followers
1.5K+ Liked
15 Shared
All
Quotes
PINNED
See original
Why Short Selling Easily Leads to Losses
Recently, cryptocurrencies like $PIPPIN, $JELLYJELLY, and $BEAT have seen dramatic surges of several times their value, leaving many investors holding short positions in a dilemma: should they stubbornly wait for a pullback or close their positions and switch to long to take advantage of the trend? This scenario highlights the topic of 'shorting easily turning into losses' once again. However, we need to clarify that short selling itself is not a monstrous threat — it is an important part of the market pricing mechanism that can curb bubbles and balance valuations. What truly puts retail investors in a passive position is the transformation of short selling into a 'one-sided obsession,' which leads to a loss of objective judgment and critical thinking. Today, we will analyze the deeper logic behind this phenomenon.
See original
$ZRC Continue to short! Currently at a short-term pullback point after a surge: In the daily chart, after the price surged, there are signs of stagnation. In the short term (5-30 minutes), there is a net outflow of funds from contracts, and bulls are starting to exit their positions; although long-term funds are flowing in, the inertia of the short-term pullback is clear, and the long-short ratio (accounts / large accounts) is slightly biased towards long, indicating weak support for the bulls.
Enter short directly at 0.00539, stop-loss at 0.006 (if it rebounds and stabilizes at the recent small peak after the surge, it indicates the downtrend is invalid, exit decisively), take profit first at 0.005, and if it breaks down, look down at 0.0048. The trend of this short-term pullback is relatively strong, making the shorting odds worth seizing!
Enter short directly at 0.00539, stop-loss at 0.006 (if it rebounds and stabilizes at the recent small peak after the surge, it indicates the downtrend is invalid, exit decisively), take profit first at 0.005, and if it breaks down, look down at 0.0048. The trend of this short-term pullback is relatively strong, making the shorting odds worth seizing!
See original
9 Core Rules for Consistent and Stable Profits in the Contract Market
In the highly volatile and leveraged contract trading market, achieving consistent and stable profits has never been a matter of luck, but rather requires a systematic trading logic and ironclad execution principles. Drawing from years of practical experience, I have broken down this profit mindset into the following 9 core points.
1. Go with the trend and discard the obsession with indicators
Going with the trend is an old adage in the trading market, yet it is also a key reason for countless traders, including so-called 'big names', to stumble. Especially in one-sided markets, it is crucial to avoid rashly counter-trending based on speculation of a 'market reversal'. More importantly, common technical indicators such as MACD, KDJ, BOLL, and moving averages all exhibit serious lag, which has previously cost me significant losses. Many people are accustomed to referencing multiple indicators simultaneously while trading, often falling into the trap of 'contradictory long and short signals'—Indicator A shows a buy signal, Indicator B suggests a sell signal, and ultimately, they cannot even clarify their own trading direction. This inefficient analysis has an accuracy rate that is even worse than flipping a coin. If you must refer to indicators, it is advisable to choose no more than two and thoroughly study them to form a specialized signal judgment system, rather than mixing them indiscriminately.
1. Go with the trend and discard the obsession with indicators
Going with the trend is an old adage in the trading market, yet it is also a key reason for countless traders, including so-called 'big names', to stumble. Especially in one-sided markets, it is crucial to avoid rashly counter-trending based on speculation of a 'market reversal'. More importantly, common technical indicators such as MACD, KDJ, BOLL, and moving averages all exhibit serious lag, which has previously cost me significant losses. Many people are accustomed to referencing multiple indicators simultaneously while trading, often falling into the trap of 'contradictory long and short signals'—Indicator A shows a buy signal, Indicator B suggests a sell signal, and ultimately, they cannot even clarify their own trading direction. This inefficient analysis has an accuracy rate that is even worse than flipping a coin. If you must refer to indicators, it is advisable to choose no more than two and thoroughly study them to form a specialized signal judgment system, rather than mixing them indiscriminately.
See original
Continue shorting $FOLKS , this wave is a one-sided crash rhythm, dropping almost 40% in 24 hours and nearly 70% over 7 days. The short-term downward momentum hasn't stopped.
Looking at the funding side, all contracts from 5 minutes to 12 hours show net outflows, with trading volume and open interest also shrinking, indicating that funds are accelerating their withdrawal, and no bottom-fishing capital is seen entering. The long-short ratio appears biased towards long, but that looks more like the previous trapped longs haven't exited, rather than actively increasing positions.
It is definitely not suitable to go long now, as the risk of taking over is too high. For shorting, the short-term trend is aligned, but one must pay attention to the impulse rebound after an oversold condition — after all, the drop has been too steep, there may be a small correction, but the larger direction is temporarily still dominated by bears.
Looking at the funding side, all contracts from 5 minutes to 12 hours show net outflows, with trading volume and open interest also shrinking, indicating that funds are accelerating their withdrawal, and no bottom-fishing capital is seen entering. The long-short ratio appears biased towards long, but that looks more like the previous trapped longs haven't exited, rather than actively increasing positions.
It is definitely not suitable to go long now, as the risk of taking over is too high. For shorting, the short-term trend is aligned, but one must pay attention to the impulse rebound after an oversold condition — after all, the drop has been too steep, there may be a small correction, but the larger direction is temporarily still dominated by bears.
See original
$PIPPIN Short-term decline is possible, you can try to go short! Whales have further reduced their long positions while increasing their short positions. The profit ratio for shorting whales is 66%. These should be insider traders. For an increase, there should still be a deep pullback.
See original
Scan to receive red envelope, Binance is offering benefits now.
See original
$AT Buy now! Currently at a trend node for a rebound continuation: In the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the price has quickly risen from a low position, with sufficient short-term bullish momentum; contract funds have seen a continuous net inflow from 5 minutes to 1 day, with bottom-fishing funds concentrating on entry, and the contract open interest has increased simultaneously (+23.44%), indicating that the main force is increasing positions.
In terms of the long-short structure, although the retail account long-short ratio is relatively low, the large account long-short ratio of 1.6449 is significantly biased towards the bulls, indicating that the main funds are positioning for an upward trend, while the bearish sentiment of retail investors has instead become a counter support.
Directly enter long at 0.0976, with a stop-loss at 0.085 (if it breaks below the recent rebound support range, it indicates that the rebound rhythm has been broken, exit decisively), and aim for a take profit first at 0.105, and if stable, look up to 0.11. The certainty of this rebound trend is quite strong, and the long position odds are worth seizing!
In terms of the long-short structure, although the retail account long-short ratio is relatively low, the large account long-short ratio of 1.6449 is significantly biased towards the bulls, indicating that the main funds are positioning for an upward trend, while the bearish sentiment of retail investors has instead become a counter support.
Directly enter long at 0.0976, with a stop-loss at 0.085 (if it breaks below the recent rebound support range, it indicates that the rebound rhythm has been broken, exit decisively), and aim for a take profit first at 0.105, and if stable, look up to 0.11. The certainty of this rebound trend is quite strong, and the long position odds are worth seizing!
See original
$BEAT can try to short. This will be the rhythm of a short-term adjustment, with net outflows in the short cycle contracts from 5 minutes to 1 day —— short-term profit-taking has settled, and trading activity has weakened a bit. However, the contract open interest has increased by more than 35%, and the large account's long-short ratio is偏多, meaning that the main force has not run away, but instead is collecting the chips thrown by retail investors.
On the long-short ratio side, retail accounts are偏空, but large accounts are still holding chips, which is clearly a method of washing the盘. Additionally, in the liquidation data, short positions have been liquidated more than long positions, indicating that the previous short-selling pressure has been mostly released.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the upward trend is actually intact; the current pullback is just an adjustment. As long as the adjustment does not break through the key support, once the funds stabilize, there is a high probability of moving upwards afterwards.
Those who want to go long don't need to panic about cutting losses, and don't rush to enter; wait for this wave of fluctuations to stabilize before considering, as getting the rhythm right is safer than chasing the rise.
On the long-short ratio side, retail accounts are偏空, but large accounts are still holding chips, which is clearly a method of washing the盘. Additionally, in the liquidation data, short positions have been liquidated more than long positions, indicating that the previous short-selling pressure has been mostly released.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the upward trend is actually intact; the current pullback is just an adjustment. As long as the adjustment does not break through the key support, once the funds stabilize, there is a high probability of moving upwards afterwards.
Those who want to go long don't need to panic about cutting losses, and don't rush to enter; wait for this wave of fluctuations to stabilize before considering, as getting the rhythm right is safer than chasing the rise.
See original
$PIPPIN This will be a rhythm of oscillation and retreat, and the previous rebound strength has obviously weakened. Looking at the short-term contract funds, there is net outflow from 5 minutes to 4 hours — equivalent to short-term funds retreating, and trading activity has also decreased (contract transaction volume has dropped by nearly 60%).
The long-short ratio there is also cautious, with both accounts and large account numbers being dominated by the short side, and the long-short ratio is barely holding up, indicating that market sentiment is cooling down. However, the contract open interest has increased slightly, indicating some funds are holding on, but it's not very stable.
In the medium term, the previous upward trend has temporarily stopped, and we are now in a grinding phase. If short-term funds do not flow back in, it is highly likely to tread down further, but as long as it does not break through key support, the foundation for a subsequent rebound is still there.
For those going long, wait until this wave of oscillation stabilizes and funds return before taking action, otherwise, it is easy to get stuck in the fluctuations.
The long-short ratio there is also cautious, with both accounts and large account numbers being dominated by the short side, and the long-short ratio is barely holding up, indicating that market sentiment is cooling down. However, the contract open interest has increased slightly, indicating some funds are holding on, but it's not very stable.
In the medium term, the previous upward trend has temporarily stopped, and we are now in a grinding phase. If short-term funds do not flow back in, it is highly likely to tread down further, but as long as it does not break through key support, the foundation for a subsequent rebound is still there.
For those going long, wait until this wave of oscillation stabilizes and funds return before taking action, otherwise, it is easy to get stuck in the fluctuations.
See original
$JELLYJELLY Short immediately! Currently in a pullback trend after a surge: in the 1-day chart, the price surged and then quickly retraced, the 4-hour chart shows a pattern of 'surge stagnation + capital outflow'; at the same time, funds in the 5-minute to 12-hour contracts are continuously net outflowing, after the surge, the funds have not been supported, but are instead leaving, which is a typical 'false surge' trend.
The long-short structure and liquidation data also lean towards bears: the long-short ratio of accounts and large accounts are both below 1, and market sentiment is leaning towards a pullback; the liquidation scale of short positions in the 1-hour and 4-hour is far higher than that of long positions, and the bearish strength is continuously releasing, not just a temporary adjustment.
Directly enter short at 0.13, stop loss at 0.145 (if it rebounds and stabilizes at the recent high point, it indicates that the decline has failed, exit decisively), take profit first at 0.095, and if broken down, look to 0.09. The certainty of this pullback after the surge is strong, and the short odds are worth seizing!
The long-short structure and liquidation data also lean towards bears: the long-short ratio of accounts and large accounts are both below 1, and market sentiment is leaning towards a pullback; the liquidation scale of short positions in the 1-hour and 4-hour is far higher than that of long positions, and the bearish strength is continuously releasing, not just a temporary adjustment.
Directly enter short at 0.13, stop loss at 0.145 (if it rebounds and stabilizes at the recent high point, it indicates that the decline has failed, exit decisively), take profit first at 0.095, and if broken down, look to 0.09. The certainty of this pullback after the surge is strong, and the short odds are worth seizing!
See original
Preview of the Bank of Japan Meeting: This Time, the Rate Hike May Exceed the Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts
Many people are talking about tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting, and they are saying that Japan might raise interest rates, but most are just following the crowd, either treating it as ordinary news or completely misunderstanding what a rate hike in Japan actually means.
Before the interest rate hike is finalized, I want to have a good discussion about this matter with everyone and share a bit of my personal perspective. Those who are familiar with me know that I usually don't pay much attention to news, but this time the interest rate hike in Japan is really not ordinary news. Its magnitude can completely be compared to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and in my view, its impact is much greater than the Fed's rate cuts.
Before the interest rate hike is finalized, I want to have a good discussion about this matter with everyone and share a bit of my personal perspective. Those who are familiar with me know that I usually don't pay much attention to news, but this time the interest rate hike in Japan is really not ordinary news. Its magnitude can completely be compared to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and in my view, its impact is much greater than the Fed's rate cuts.
See original
$RIVER This coin has recently experienced a rollercoaster market. After dropping from the position of $8.5, it fell nearly 80% in just a few days—such an extreme oversold trend is not uncommon in the market.
Interestingly, yesterday's trend reversed. In the last 24 hours, it rose over 62%, which is clearly a sign that the bulls are starting to fight back. When these kinds of rebound opportunities arise, it is indeed a good time to consider bottom hunting. There is still an entry point for altcoins in this wave of rebound, so those interested may want to consider it.
Interestingly, yesterday's trend reversed. In the last 24 hours, it rose over 62%, which is clearly a sign that the bulls are starting to fight back. When these kinds of rebound opportunities arise, it is indeed a good time to consider bottom hunting. There is still an entry point for altcoins in this wave of rebound, so those interested may want to consider it.
See original
$FHE After this wave of plunge, there was a slight rebound, but looking closely at the mid-term trend, the moving averages are completely in a bearish arrangement, and funds continue to flow out in cycles of 4 hours or more. In this situation, the short-term rebound strength simply cannot hold, and it is very likely just a small episode in the process of decline.
Moreover, from the perspective of contract positions and capital flows, the mid-term selling pressure has not been fully released, and entering the market now makes it easy to take over. I think it’s better to avoid this type of coin for now, observe for a while, and wait until the trend becomes clear before considering it. If you want to short, you can try a hand.
Moreover, from the perspective of contract positions and capital flows, the mid-term selling pressure has not been fully released, and entering the market now makes it easy to take over. I think it’s better to avoid this type of coin for now, observe for a while, and wait until the trend becomes clear before considering it. If you want to short, you can try a hand.
See original
$HMSTR Immediately short! After a surge, it enters a rapid retracement trend: in the 4-hour and 15-minute charts, the price has plummeted from a high position, and the short-term bullish momentum has completely exhausted; although the contract open interest has increased, the spot funds have net outflow in 24 hours, which belongs to a typical trend of "funds fleeing after a rise."
In terms of long and short structure, although the large traders' long-short ratio has fluctuated, there has been no capital support during the price retracement, which instead confirms the bearish dominance. This combination of "surge stagnation + capital outflow + price breakdown" is the core basis for shorting.
Directly enter short at 0.000253, stop loss at 0.00027 (if a rebound stabilizes in the recent retracement's consolidation zone, it indicates the decline has failed, exit decisively), take profit first look at 0.00022, and after breaking down, look down at 0.00020. The certainty of this retracement trend is strong, and the shorting odds are worth seizing!
In terms of long and short structure, although the large traders' long-short ratio has fluctuated, there has been no capital support during the price retracement, which instead confirms the bearish dominance. This combination of "surge stagnation + capital outflow + price breakdown" is the core basis for shorting.
Directly enter short at 0.000253, stop loss at 0.00027 (if a rebound stabilizes in the recent retracement's consolidation zone, it indicates the decline has failed, exit decisively), take profit first look at 0.00022, and after breaking down, look down at 0.00020. The certainty of this retracement trend is strong, and the shorting odds are worth seizing!
See original
$HMSTR This wave has increased nearly 50% in 1 day, which is a typical emotionally driven strong surge: the contract transaction volume has skyrocketed over 10 times, and the open interest has increased 8 times. All funds from 5 minutes to 12 hours are net inflows, and the entry momentum is fully charged. At the same time, large accounts are biased towards long positions, and although retail investors have some disagreements, the main players' attitude is clear. Plus, the next unlock will only release 0.01% of the volume, with almost no selling pressure interference.
Currently, the short-term bullish trend is clear, and as long as funds can continue to follow up, the upward rhythm can be maintained; in terms of operations, do not chase high, wait for a small pullback to participate with light positions, and remember to tighten risk control.
Currently, the short-term bullish trend is clear, and as long as funds can continue to follow up, the upward rhythm can be maintained; in terms of operations, do not chase high, wait for a small pullback to participate with light positions, and remember to tighten risk control.
See original
$PIPPIN Long position! Currently stuck around 0.44 grinding —— The 15-minute chart shows a small fluctuation after the rebound, but the 1-hour level indicates a clear upward trend.
The funding side is strong, with net inflows in both the 1-hour and 4-hour contracts, and the signs of medium-term entry are very obvious; looking at the liquidation data, the number of short liquidations from 1 hour to 24 hours far exceeds that of long positions, indicating that the previous short selling pressure has basically been cleared away.
The long-short ratio is also interesting: retail accounts are biased towards short positions, but large accounts have a long-short ratio close to 1, indicating that the main force has not exited, but is instead borrowing the fluctuations to accumulate chips.
Now is the rhythm of building up strength for a rebound, with short-term support at 0.3997; as long as this level holds, there is a high probability of a surge to the previous high of 0.5253.
In terms of operations, don't chase highs; wait for a pullback to the support level to enter with light positions, and just tighten the risk control.
The funding side is strong, with net inflows in both the 1-hour and 4-hour contracts, and the signs of medium-term entry are very obvious; looking at the liquidation data, the number of short liquidations from 1 hour to 24 hours far exceeds that of long positions, indicating that the previous short selling pressure has basically been cleared away.
The long-short ratio is also interesting: retail accounts are biased towards short positions, but large accounts have a long-short ratio close to 1, indicating that the main force has not exited, but is instead borrowing the fluctuations to accumulate chips.
Now is the rhythm of building up strength for a rebound, with short-term support at 0.3997; as long as this level holds, there is a high probability of a surge to the previous high of 0.5253.
In terms of operations, don't chase highs; wait for a pullback to the support level to enter with light positions, and just tighten the risk control.
See original
$XRP The recent trend is quite interesting. From a technical perspective, the range from 1.8280 to 1.8080 is crucial—if you want to go long, this area is an ideal entry point.
Looking upward, first pay attention to the level of 1.8680. If it can be successfully taken, consider taking some profits to secure gains. If it continues to perform well, 1.8980 is a more realistic target, and the profits made here would be considerable.
The most important point—risk management must be done well. Setting a stop-loss is critical; once the level is broken, you must act decisively and not be soft-hearted. In such matters, one should not gamble on psychology.
Of course, the market changes rapidly, and these ideas are for reference only. In actual operations, you should still base your actions on your own risk tolerance.
Looking upward, first pay attention to the level of 1.8680. If it can be successfully taken, consider taking some profits to secure gains. If it continues to perform well, 1.8980 is a more realistic target, and the profits made here would be considerable.
The most important point—risk management must be done well. Setting a stop-loss is critical; once the level is broken, you must act decisively and not be soft-hearted. In such matters, one should not gamble on psychology.
Of course, the market changes rapidly, and these ideas are for reference only. In actual operations, you should still base your actions on your own risk tolerance.
See original
$FOLKS Is there still room for this round of decline to continue? The answer is yes.
From the data, on the 14th, FOLKS was still at the $46 mark, and just three days later it dropped to around $7 — this is not a mild adjustment, this is a rapid plunge. Retail investors are still pondering "Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity?", but the fact is that the main players had already unloaded their positions at the high levels, and those who are currently holding the line are mostly just following the trend while being trapped.
From a technical perspective, the $6 line has some hardness, but once it is broken, $5.5 will directly become the next target. Each time a support level is breached, it accelerates the pace of the next round of sell-off; this is the power of the trend — the further it goes down, the more intense the selling pressure.
The current strategy is actually very clear: as long as a reversal signal has not formed in the downtrend, the bearish mindset should be maintained. Once the support level stops being frequently breached, the acceleration of the decline will gradually ease. This is a standard trend-following approach, not a gamble on the bottom; what is needed is patience to wait for a profit-taking opportunity to appear.
From the data, on the 14th, FOLKS was still at the $46 mark, and just three days later it dropped to around $7 — this is not a mild adjustment, this is a rapid plunge. Retail investors are still pondering "Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity?", but the fact is that the main players had already unloaded their positions at the high levels, and those who are currently holding the line are mostly just following the trend while being trapped.
From a technical perspective, the $6 line has some hardness, but once it is broken, $5.5 will directly become the next target. Each time a support level is breached, it accelerates the pace of the next round of sell-off; this is the power of the trend — the further it goes down, the more intense the selling pressure.
The current strategy is actually very clear: as long as a reversal signal has not formed in the downtrend, the bearish mindset should be maintained. Once the support level stops being frequently breached, the acceleration of the decline will gradually ease. This is a standard trend-following approach, not a gamble on the bottom; what is needed is patience to wait for a profit-taking opportunity to appear.
See original
$PIPPIN This wave of rhythm is quite interesting—after a sharp drop, funds flowed back at lightning speed, pulling up nearly 20% in just one hour. The contract positions and transaction volume increased simultaneously, clearly indicating that short-term funds are scrambling to buy.
Looking at the chip structure, large accounts are taking over while retail investors are selling. This kind of "main force buying and retail investors leaving" performance is often a buildup before a surge. The technical indicators are also supportive, with moving averages all turning upwards. Although there is still some distance from the previous high, the momentum of this bullish wave is not so easily dispersed.
However, don’t get too carried away; there will definitely be selling pressure near the previous high. Either take a small position or wait for a small pullback to the 0.38-0.40 range before entering. Risk control must be tightened.
Looking at the chip structure, large accounts are taking over while retail investors are selling. This kind of "main force buying and retail investors leaving" performance is often a buildup before a surge. The technical indicators are also supportive, with moving averages all turning upwards. Although there is still some distance from the previous high, the momentum of this bullish wave is not so easily dispersed.
However, don’t get too carried away; there will definitely be selling pressure near the previous high. Either take a small position or wait for a small pullback to the 0.38-0.40 range before entering. Risk control must be tightened.
See original
$FOLKS This round of volume decline looks like a very standard washout rhythm. Although the retracement is not small, from the perspective of volume and charts, it really seems to be forming a bottom.
My idea is to first place a bottom position to test the waters. Then set a plan – increase the position by one each time it drops by ten points, building the position in batches to lower the cost. This way, it can reduce psychological pressure and avoid being cut.
The key is still to control the total position and risk exposure well, and not to put everything in at once. The market is fluctuating, and keeping a stable mindset will allow you to catch the real bottom.
My idea is to first place a bottom position to test the waters. Then set a plan – increase the position by one each time it drops by ten points, building the position in batches to lower the cost. This way, it can reduce psychological pressure and avoid being cut.
The key is still to control the total position and risk exposure well, and not to put everything in at once. The market is fluctuating, and keeping a stable mindset will allow you to catch the real bottom.
Login to explore more contents