链客-拾鑫

小止损，高止盈
听起来很专业的一句话，其实是无数新手账户的“慢性毒药”。

逻辑陷阱在这：
小止损＝频繁被扫
高止盈＝极低触发概率
结果＝亏小钱无数次，偶尔一次也等不到

你以为自己在“控制风险、放大利润”， 实际上是在用最差的赔率，去打最高频的失败交易。

为什么“小止损”在币圈尤其致命？

【交易者用止损于和止盈预期了行情接下的来波动区间和首先突破区间的方向。先达到止盈则获胜，先达到止损则失败。】

波动是常态，不是例外，1%～2%的来回波动是日常。 你把止损放在情绪区间，本质就是把钱交给噪音。
流动性专吃近止损 大资金不需要预测趋势，只需要知道—— 哪里堆了最多的止损单。 小止损，正好是最密集的“流动性池”。

那“高止盈”又坑在哪？
高止盈 ≠ 大赚
高止盈 = 低胜率
你每一单都在赌“这次一定能走趋势”， 但现实是：
绝大多数行情，走不到你设想的终点。
于是就出现了经典画面：
止损：-2~3%（一天好几次）
止盈：+10~20%（一个月也碰不到）
要是再结合上重仓。
账户曲线不是爆亏，是被时间慢慢磨死。

真相其实很残酷
想要长期活下来，做的恰恰相反：
止损不小，但有逻辑
止盈不贪，但可重复

拼的是赔率结构，不是单笔神迹

小止损反复被打
一直等“大行情回本”
情绪越来越重、仓位越来越乱
站在了一个注定亏钱的参数组合上。

In the middle of the night, I got up to pee and casually placed an order, making 700 bucks in hand, such lavish wealth. #ETH

Dogecoin has indeed significantly reduced the number of federal government employees. #DOGE

BTC 4H
In a complex oscillating downward structure
Zooming in a bit to determine the direction
Subjectively, I believe it is still in a downward trend
It has started to show characteristics of converging oscillation
Personally, I still insist on shorting on rebounds
If going long, I will focus on the key support at 82k and the false breakdown at 79K, two key price ranges.

This ridiculous market is a difficult-to-describe tumultuous waste of time.

Bitcoin has been swaying in the 85k-87k range for a day, pulling up to around 89k in the morning, only to be ruthlessly smashed back down below 86k. Trading volume is low, with sporadic but ongoing liquidations in leveraged positions, and the Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone at 17.

ETH is even worse, struggling around 2800 dollars, altcoins are largely in the red, Layer2 and meme coins are bleeding heavily. Why is it performing so poorly? The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates by 25bp, and some yen carry trades have been closed, causing risk assets to take a hit.

Next week is Christmas + options expiration (with 2.3 billion dollars of open interest on Deribit), everyone is reducing positions for risk management, and no one dares to heavily bet on a rebound. Institutions are bloodsucking: small inflows into ETFs, but retail investors and those using leverage are bleeding out.

Hardcore players like MSTR continue to accumulate, but overall market confidence has shattered. From the 126k ATH, there has been a 32% correction, and now no one dares to say "the bull market isn't over," with more people discussing "is the four-cycle about to break?".

All the classic symptoms of the late stage of this bull market are present - those shouting HODL the loudest are actually ready to sell; bulls are waiting for "the last explosive surge to escape the peak," while bears are waiting for "confirmation of a bear market to add positions."

The result is a market that resembles a indecisive leeks, swaying in the wind. Short-term: don’t expect a Christmas rally, if 85k can’t hold then look for 80k as the next support level. #ETH走势分析

Today's most shocking data:

Excluding the 10 worst trading days, the S&P 500 Index has risen by 6400% since 1995.

If we exclude the 10 best trading days, the return during the same period would be +1200%, which is 5.3 times less than the former.

In contrast, the total return of the index is +2,600%, which is less than half of the return generated after removing the worst-performing days.

In 2008, this divergence intensified, as the market experienced 5 of the 10 worst trading days since 1995.

In 2020, this gap widened further, with the S&P 500 Index experiencing 3 of the worst trading days in history.

Just a few key days of performance can determine the results for decades to come.

小时候看黄蓉设计谋斗欧阳锋
先骗欧阳锋进入埋伏掉坑里
然后水浇上去结冰冻住了欧阳锋
欧阳锋第二次以同样的方式入坑
在同一个坑里被冻住

那时候想傻逼欧阳锋
人怎么能蠢到这样
有勇无谋呵呵呵
回旋镖来了啊
你在同一个坑里跳了多少次？
我先来五次以上了
人怎么能蠢到这样

Air force during Bitcoin pump and dump. #BTH

As of December 18, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) current policy interest rate is 0.5%.\n \n The market widely expects a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% at this week's (December 18-19) monetary policy meeting, which would be the highest level in 30 years (since 1995).\n The probability of this expectation is as high as 94%-95%, with main driving factors including:\n \n Japan's core inflation consistently exceeding the 2% target (2025 core CPI is expected to be 2.4%-2.7%).\n Strong wage growth (2026 spring labor negotiations are expected to continue the high increase from 2025).\n The inflationary pressure from the previous depreciation of the yen needs to be curbed through interest rate hikes.

How Japan's interest rate hike affects our A-shares market:
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting on December 19, 2025, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a new high in 30 years.
The main reasons include core CPI consistently exceeding the 2% target, the formation of a wage-price loop, the depreciation of the yen exacerbating import inflation, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
The overall impact on A-shares is "short-term disturbance, long-term limited": in the short term, it may trigger a temporary outflow of northbound funds (100-180 billion yuan in a single week), emotional fluctuations for 1-2 weeks, and high valuation growth stocks under pressure; however, the foreign capital proportion is low (only 3-4%), domestic capital is dominant (institutional holdings exceed 22%), and valuation gaps (the PE of CSI 300 is only 14.45 times) provide a buffer.
Transmission path: carry trade unwinding, limited capital repatriation to Japan; in terms of exchange rate, yen appreciation benefits Chinese export enterprises to Japan (electronics, auto parts), and import-dependent industries (aviation, papermaking), alleviating yen debt pressure.
Benefiting industries: semiconductor equipment/materials (domestic substitution), electronic components, auto parts, aviation papermaking, strategic resources. Pressured industries: home appliances reliant on exports to Japan, high-end manufacturing reliant on Japanese supply chains, high valuation tech stocks.
Overall, A-shares show strong resilience, long-term dominated by domestic fundamentals, it is recommended to focus on defensive strategies and layout quality undervalued high dividend and growth sectors. #A股

Two scenarios: The Bank of Japan announces a rate hike vs. The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates:

The Bank of Japan announces a rate hike (current market expectation probability as high as 80%-98%)
Core impact: Large-scale liquidation of yen carry trades.

• Impact on Bitcoin: Bearish (short-term turbulence)

• Liquidity contraction: Many institutional giants borrow cheap yen (interest rate almost 0), then exchange it for dollars to buy Bitcoin. Once the yen is raised, borrowing costs increase, and the yen will also appreciate. To repay debts, these giants must sell their Bitcoin to raise funds.

• Historical backtesting: Reviewing the Bank of Japan's rate hikes in July 2024 and January 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks of 20%-30% in the following days.

• Price target: Analysts warn that if the rate hike is accompanied by hawkish remarks, BTC may pull back to around 70,000 USD from the current 86,000-90,000 USD range.

The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates (minority expectation)

Core impact: Global liquidity temporarily remains unchanged.

• Impact on Bitcoin: Short-term bullish / sentiment recovery

• Short squeeze: Since the market has almost priced in a "rate hike" at nearly 100%, if it turns out there is no hike, it would be a huge "bearish exhaustion" for Bitcoin, potentially triggering a fierce rebound and challenging the 100,000 USD mark again.

• Risk aversion sentiment eases: Arbitrageurs do not need to rush to sell coins to repay debts, and market sentiment will quickly warm up.

What happens if Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to cut rates?
This is known as "divergence in monetary policy." The Fed's easing (rate cuts) adds liquidity to the market, while Japan is tightening. These two forces will contend; if the Fed's easing is greater than Japan's tightening, Bitcoin may actually reach a "sweet spot" after a brief decline.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting. The market expects it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. 0.75% doesn't sound high, but it's the highest rate in Japan in nearly 30 years.

In prediction markets like Polymarket, traders are pricing the probability of this rate hike at 98%. Why does a decision made by a central bank far away in Tokyo cause Bitcoin to drop by 5% within 48 hours? This relates to a concept known as "Yen carry trade."

The logic is quite simple: Japanese interest rates have been close to zero or even negative for a long time, making it nearly free to borrow yen. As a result, hedge funds, asset management firms, and trading desks globally have been borrowing large amounts of yen, converting it to dollars, and then purchasing higher-yielding assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies. As long as the returns on these assets exceed the cost of borrowing in yen, the interest rate differential is profit.
This strategy has existed for decades and has grown to a scale that is difficult to quantify accurately. Conservative estimates suggest several hundred billion dollars, and if derivative exposure is included, some analysts believe it could reach several trillion.
Additionally, Japan holds a special status: it is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, with $1.18 trillion in U.S. debt.

This means that changes in the flow of funds from Japan will directly impact the world's most important bond market, which in turn will affect the pricing of all risk assets. #BTC走势分析

Oh dear, the cryptocurrency market has started to panic again these past few days. Bitcoin slid directly from over 90,000 to the 80,000 range. Everyone is asking: the Bank of Japan hasn't raised interest rates yet, so why has BTC already "dipped in respect"? Simply put, the core issue is the yen carry trade at play.

In the past few years, Japan's interest rates have been extremely low, and everyone has been borrowing cheap yen to exchange for dollars to buy high-risk assets—Bitcoin is a typical beneficiary, surging whenever liquidity loosens. Now, the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise rates by 25bp to 0.75% tomorrow (19th), which is the highest level in 30 years, with the market Polymarket pricing it at 98%. Once the interest rate hike comes, the cost of borrowing yen will increase, arbitrage opportunities will vanish, and large funds will close positions early, leading to capital flowing back to Japan, tightening global liquidity.

Bitcoin, being a high-beta asset, is the most sensitive and has been the first to be hit. Historically, every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC drops by 20-30%: March 2024 -23%, July -26%, January 2025 -31%. This time, the market has preemptively exited, already front-running the situation, with net inflows to exchanges skyrocketing and leveraged long positions being liquidated. In the short term, there may be another wave of selling pressure after the meeting; a price of 70,000 dollars is not impossible. But if it only comes down to expectations without overly hawkish signals, there may be a rebound in a few days—after all, liquidity is low at the end of the year, and volatility is high.

Brothers, hold your positions steady, don't panic, and wait for the dust to settle before making any moves. That's how the crypto world works; when the macro environment sneezes, we catch a cold first.

Recently, a noteworthy phenomenon has emerged in the BTC/USD trading pair: since December 4, trading volume has significantly declined, a situation that is quite rare in history.

Typically, a sharp drop in trading volume often indicates a weakening interest from market participants or a slowdown in capital inflow, leading to liquidity becoming depleted. Meanwhile, the candlestick chart has begun to show a distinct zigzag pattern, accompanied by frequent up and down wicks (long shadows), with price fluctuations being severe yet lacking a sustained direction.

This typical characteristic of low liquidity makes the market susceptible to being driven by a small number of orders, creating extreme conditions, similar to the "ghost town" effect—buy and sell orders are sparse, and a large order can trigger violent fluctuations.

In my opinion, this is likely a signal of liquidity exhaustion. Historically, similar phases have often preceded significant turning points: either continuing to probe downward to absorb cheap chips or accumulating energy for a strong market surge. Currently, market sentiment is sluggish, leverage has been partially cleared, and there may be a brewing "big move".

I suggest everyone pay close attention to key support/resistance levels, and prepare a risk management plan in advance, including stop-loss, position control, and potential add-on points. Opportunities and risks coexist; being well-prepared is essential to calmly respond to the upcoming changes.

In the last two days, there have been rumors in the community that #币安人生 will be listed on Binance spot trading, and everyone is discussing it passionately. However, to be honest, my expectations for its spot listing are not that high anymore.
Yesterday, I sold all my positions, mainly because the first similar concept on spot trading, $giggle, performed poorly—after being listed, it was directly cut in half, and now its market value is only around 65M. The market has a strong herd effect, and later projects often refer to the pricing and performance of the previous one; if Binance Life really gets listed on spot trading, it is highly likely to be benchmarked to a similar market value range. Is a cut in half upon listing impossible? It’s not out of the question.
As the excitement fades, funds tend to chase more certain opportunities, and once these narrative-driven meme coins lose their heat, prices can quickly return to rationality or even overshoot. Therefore, rather than betting on a high probability discounted result, it is better to cash out early, maintain a cash position, and wait for better opportunities.
In short, whether or not it gets listed on spot trading is no longer important; what matters is recognizing the current stage and sentiment of the market, and not being led by FOMO.

Its real function is to allow you to think clearly about a trade before the market moves: where to enter, where to exit, and whether the risk is large or small.
Whether it's a double top, double bottom, or a flag, the actionable moment is never right when the pattern first emerges.
What is truly worth executing is always when the price tests a previously tested level, because only at that point is the stop-loss clear.
Therefore, a reliable trading plan is actually quite simple:
Enter after a pullback; place the stop-loss outside the previous high or low; the risk-reward ratio should be at least 2:1.#ETH走势分析

Yesterday, there was a market trend for the Earth's Needle, as tomorrow is the 19th, and the news of Japan's interest rate hike has been released. After the U.S. stock market opened, it also plummeted significantly, indicating that funds are seeking safety;

The next key time point is the year-end options expiration on the 26th. As long as Japan's interest rate hike path meets expectations, it will not fall below in December, and then we will focus on the options market around the 26th, so it is still possible to buy the dip near 84 and 85 according to the wave bottom; #ETH走势分析

根据美股场内杠杆指标（如FINRA保证金债务数据），当前市场已进入高度杠杆化阶段，呈现泡沫特征。自2025年中期起，该指标持续创历史新高，隐含杠杆水平显著提升，已远超2009年以来历次中期顶部，并接近或局部类似于2007年高峰期水平，但距离2000年互联网泡沫顶峰仍有差距。在此杠杆泡沫化阶段，市场走势更多受资金流动性驱动，而非基本面支撑。一旦场内杠杆开始逆转、指标出现拐头向下，整体行情很可能转向中长期调整周期。而且，历史经验显示，高点杠杆值越高，去杠杆过程引发的低点跌幅往往越大。从这一视角观察，本轮潜在调整幅度，可能超过2021年11月至2022年12月那轮熊市的下行力度，需警惕资金面突发紧缩风险。#美国非农数据超预期

Bro is down 73m, it’s clear that Insider Bro should be relying on insider information, trading skills are almost zero. Let's see if there's any news that can save him.#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

别碰合约！！！！！
之前不玩合约，最近没行情，就手贱玩了玩合约，目前来看，收益还行。。。
我要送外卖去了！！！！