The countdown for interest rate hikes in Japan is here, and the liquidity patterns in global markets are about to be completely overturned!
The era of ultra-low interest rates is coming to an end, and the adjustment of liquidity won't stop in the short term, which directly offsets the benefits brought by the recent QE from the Federal Reserve.
However, weakness does not mean there are no opportunities.
Referring to previous cycles, after a wave of trend markets, there will always be a phase bottom!
According to historical data, phase bottoms typically last around 3 months.
Then a nice rebound market will emerge.
Even in a bear market, it cannot keep falling forever; the support around 80,000 is close to the starting point for a rebound!
The fluctuations are just preparing for the upcoming big market, and the opportunity is right in front of us!
The ETH short position I called for everyone to enter the day before yesterday
Hit 3150 directly, with a minimum drop to 2870.
Many brothers earned an average of 1000 dollars; it was really satisfying.
Being short is just comfortable!
Brothers with a base position should continue to hold, and profits can expand further!
Don't worry if you missed out.
There will be great opportunities after the US stock market opens tonight; let's ambush for another big one in the chat room!!!
Non-farm night storm is coming! Tonight's non-farm data will directly ignite the market!
Not only will the November data be released, but the October data will also be supplemented. Coupled with the dual pressure of the yen interest rate hike and inflation data, market sentiment has tightened to the extreme!
Current liquidity is extremely weak, and once negative news appears, BTC is likely to plummet!
ETH's rebound is also precarious, and the short position has already started.
Brothers, the opportunity tonight has arrived!
Non-farm data focus: Neither good nor bad is the best outcome!
Current market prediction for the unemployment rate is 4.4%, with only 50,000 new jobs, the data is clearly weak!
If the data falls short of expectations, the market will intensify concerns about economic recession, and risk assets may face a new wave of selling!
With the Christmas holiday approaching, market liquidity is exhausted, and even a slight large capital flow may trigger violent fluctuations!
If the non-farm data turns out negative, the decline of BTC and ETH could be very severe!
Currently, the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 is only 24.4%, and the market is not optimistic about it.
Tonight's non-farm data will be crucial. If the data does not support interest rate cut expectations, market panic will further intensify!
ETH's current rebound strength is very weak, short-term pressure is concentrated in the 2970-3015 range. If it cannot break through here, the market will continue to weaken!
Strong resistance above at 3100, only breaking through here may lead to a real rebound; otherwise, all rebounds are just bait for bulls!
Support below at 2825-2795. If it breaks down here,
the market will test the key support at 2715!
2715 is the last defense point of the box's lower boundary,
once lost, the bears will completely control the situation.
Currently, ETH is operating in the 3100-2715 box, and the short-term trend will fluctuate around this range.
For those who followed the short position at 3150 earlier, just defend and hold on.
For friends who don't have positions, wait for tonight's non-farm data, the next layout, let's meet in the chatroom! 😌😌😌
Although Japan's interest rate hike is not a black swan, the slow variables behind it are quietly changing the market landscape!
There are only two real black swans, although the probability is extremely low, if they occur, the global market will face a "great earthquake"!
【Two low-probability black swans that could explode the global market at any time!】
1️⃣ Japan is forced to accelerate interest rate hikes
If the yen spirals out of control, inflation clearly derails, and the central bank's credibility collapses, Japan may be forced to rapidly raise interest rates! In this scenario, the "yen carry trade" will collapse instantly, leading to an epic sell-off in global markets!
2️⃣ Japan raises interest rates + the US re-enters aggressive tightening
If the US resumes aggressive tightening while Japan raises interest rates, global liquidity will be directly drained!
Note: The root of the risk still lies in the US; Japan is just an additional factor, but this combination is enough to severely impact the global market!
As long as these two things do not happen, Japan's independent interest rate hike is unlikely to become the main risk, but the market is currently quietly digesting this information, and the power of slow variables is often deadlier than black swans!
Last night, ETH short positions precisely targeted 3150, and those who followed made a killing!
Last night after the US stock market began to leak, ETH dropped to a low of 2870
Short position profits directly exploded to 200 points+!
Friends who followed made a casual few hundred U without any issues, securing the gains!
Friends who followed hit 666
If you missed last night's short position, don't worry!
Tonight in the chat room, there will still be opportunities for large hidden orders! Are you still going to miss out?
Recently, the whale directly opened a full long on the insider address of 10·11, and the sentiment instantly came!
The recent market is really too magical, it goes up and down in a moment
Repeatedly pulling, when it falls you think it’s going down, but it comes back up
When it rises you think it’s going to fly, but it comes back down!
This is a typical triangular oscillation area, the range is getting smaller,
Next week, the expectation of a negative impact from the yen interest rate hike, and the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion
The market is finally going to choose a direction!
This time, Powell's speech is considered "hawkish rate cut"
The market responded with a drop, but the good news is
The Federal Reserve will begin balance sheet expansion on the 12th
$40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds will be bought, liquidity is about to come!
Yesterday, the U.S. stock market's spike directly provided an opportunity
Brought fans to chase a long position in Ethereum around 3160
Stop loss set at 3100 support, ended up taking 80 points, so comfortable!
Currently, the position has been reduced with protection!!!
There is still an opportunity tonight
Let's continue to ambush in our chat room, see you in the car! 🔥
Last night's interest rate cut finally settled, but the market did not welcome the overly optimistic news.
Instead, under the condition of "good news fully realized", ETH directly experienced a big drop.
From 3450 down to 3170, it fell nearly 10% in just a few hours!
Many people didn't react in time and were already washed out by the big players.
Don't fantasize about a reversal; the downtrend is not over yet!
The logic behind this drop is very clear: rise before the interest rate cut, and directly fall on the day of the interest rate cut when good news is fully realized.
ETH's upcoming trend: any rebound is an opportunity to short!
Short-term support and resistance levels:
Support level: 3100-3130
This is the key support area for the short term. If it falls below 3100 during the day, ETH may continue to accelerate its decline!
Resistance level: 3250-3300
The resistance for the rebound during the day is here. As long as it doesn't break through this range, the market remains weak. After a rebound, it is still the bears' territory!
Chasing shorts is not cost-effective; waiting for a rebound to short is the best value!
Fans, this single position only opened a 50u short position, and there are currently several hundred u in profits; the short position still brings in money quickly.
Friends who are patiently holding short positions, big profits are on the way!
Friends who are out of ideas recently, join the chat room, keep up with the rhythm and seize the bears' territory! 💪💪💪
Was someone watching the 100,000 big pancakes last night?
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, many thought the big pancake would take off, but it plummeted directly at dawn!
Friends who missed the ride, did you fall asleep and miss the market?
Why did it drop? Isn't a rate cut a good thing?
A rate cut = all the good news is out, and Powell's hawkish remarks directly extinguished the fantasy!
Last night, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Grandpa Powell's comments were very hawkish, pouring cold water on the market!
Ten days later, around the winter solstice, Japan may announce a rate hike. Do you remember the bloody storm on August 5, 2024?
At that time, the U.S. cut rates and Japan raised rates, narrowing the interest rate differential, and arbitrage funds retreated overnight, causing BTC to plummet by 20%!
Although the impact of this rate hike in Japan may not be as exaggerated, brothers must remain vigilant, as we may see another daily level sell-off near the winter solstice!
Yesterday, I told everyone to place short orders near 94400.
For those who followed, making 2000 points is not a problem.
Isn't it comfortable to fly?
This bearish market is too perfect.
For the brothers who missed out, don't be discouraged; the next opportunity is just around the corner!
For friends who didn’t catch up yesterday, don’t worry, tonight we will continue to pay attention to the movements of the U.S. stock market, looking for the next layout opportunity!
Get on board in the chat room, and we will continue to feast on the next wave!
The big one is really coming!!! The global market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting!!!
Mr. Powell's last speech in the spotlight will determine the future direction of the market.
There is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which not only marks Powell's farewell performance but also paves the way for the new chairman's debut next year.
The market is looking forward to a "gentle conclusion," but if Powell suddenly turns hawkish, tonight could turn into a bloodbath!
Starting in the second half of next year, the U.S. will welcome a more accommodative policy environment, and the pace of rate cuts may accelerate.
Tonight's speech is Mr. Powell's final tone-setting for future policies, and market sentiment is highly tense!
CZ mentioned that if the rate cut meets expectations, BTC may welcome the end of a 4-year cycle and enter a long bull market!
But if tonight's remarks lean hawkish, panic selling may erupt in the market, leading to a short-term sell-off.
ETH key levels are here!
Short-term resistance: 3375, looking towards 3450 after breaking
Here you can take a small short position, and be sure to set a stop loss!
Intraday support: 3210-3100
As long as these key points are not broken, the bullish pattern remains solid
After tonight, the global market will welcome a new round of reshuffling—regardless, this night will be a watershed moment for the market this year!
For those who followed this wave of Ethereum longs yesterday, be sure to protect your position, and see if there’s an opportunity to make a big trade tonight; friends who haven’t jumped on board, see you in the chatroom!
3 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the main event!
But remember, market volatility is not driven by those 25 basis points; the real "killing blow" is Powell's words!
This time, he may use a somewhat hawkish communication style to directly crush the market's fantasy of continuous rate cuts; the market shift can happen in an instant!
First, the conclusion: the approach to the interest rate decision
Rate cut of 25bp: 88% (high probability of realization)
This is the result already priced in by the market; once announced, it may not cause much volatility.
No rate cut: 11%
If this low probability occurs, the market will explode directly, and bears will seize absolute control, putting all long positions in immediate danger!
Rate cut of 50bp: 1%
Almost impossible; market expectations have virtually no path for this, but if it really happens, it would be a super positive surprise, and the market would take off directly!
Yesterday, the long position we set up at 3105, those who followed should have already made a profit of over 200 points!
For friends still holding, remember to set a trailing stop to protect profits.
Don’t let the spike in the market swallow the fruits of victory!
How much was made yesterday?
This wave at least made 100 points, many brothers made several hundred bucks directly; check the U in your account and see if it’s delightful?
Friends who followed remember to comment "I’m in," and we’ll continue on the next wave!
Friends who haven’t followed still have a chance; wait for tonight's U.S. stock layout, see you in our chat room😘😘
Successfully rolled over 14 times in a row, directly exploding from 800U to 27,000U, relying on a 'foolish method' that no one is willing to stick to.
I knew this method before, but I never stuck to it even once.
Until that day when I lost everything, I finally understood:
The market doesn't make money through cleverness,
But by being 'obedient'.
✦ On the day I started turning the tide, I made a move that I would never have done before.
That day the market was very chaotic, with longs and shorts tossing people around.
According to my previous habits, I would definitely rush in and confront it head-on.
But that day I unusually only made one move:
Wait.
Wait for the trend to converge
Wait for the volatility to clean up
Wait for the direction to be consistent
Wait for the position that looks 'so foolish it can't be any more foolish'
Then, I placed my first rollover order.
I captured a small fluctuation of 8.5%.
I withdrew the profits and left part of it to push for the next order.
I felt for the first time:
It turns out rolling over is not gambling, but 'stacking'.
✦ These 14 successful rollovers, what really got me high was not the profit
But the 'rhythm becoming smoother'.
The old me:
The more I made, the more restless I became
The more I lost, the more I wanted to double down
The less I could wait, the more chaotic my entries became
Now I only do three things:
① I look for the most comfortable rhythm point every day
Not just doing it when it rises
Not just doing it when it falls
But that point which is 'clean, stable, and has space'
Finding that one point accurately is better than making six chaotic trades.
② I never let my capital be exposed to chaos
This is the key to my survival in rolling over.
Only use profits to roll,
Capital always lies clean and tidy.
Others die trying to 'bet heavily for a big bite',
I live by 'slowly stacking profits into a snowball'.
③ When to exit? Not based on feelings, but on a signal
When I see the volatility becoming chaotic, the rhythm getting dirty, and the wicks inexplicably lengthening—
I immediately withdraw.
Not out of fear
But because I know:
When the market is dirty, profits cannot be retrieved.
I have avoided several 'false breakouts + sudden drops' with this habit.
'The market is there every day, but whether you can stay steady depends on whether you have your own trading rhythm. If you have no rhythm, don’t force a trade.'
Only 2 days left until the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting!
This time, it is very likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but I have to tell you, this so-called 'good news' has already been digested by the market in advance!
The key moving forward is not whether interest rates will be cut, but rather to pay attention to what Powell says!
If Powell adopts a dovish rate cut, the market may have another rebound opportunity!
But if it's a hawkish rate cut combined with the Bank of Japan's rate hike,
then the upcoming market may directly fall into the abyss, so everyone must stay alert!
ETH key levels: holding above 3100 gives bulls a chance, breaking below 3050 means bears are in control!
Short-term support: 3080-3050
ETH is currently still in a consolidation range
Although MACD shows signs of stopping the decline, the trading volume is obviously insufficient, and the short-term trend remains primarily within a range!
3050 is the key defensive line for bulls; as long as it holds here, there is hope for a rebound in the market!
Short-term resistance: 3150-3230
If there is a subsequent increase in volume that breaks through 3150 and stabilizes, ETH is expected to further rebound to the 3200-3230 resistance range!
But everyone pay attention, 3230 is a crucial short-term resistance level
If it can't break through, don't get attached; reducing positions at high levels and securing profits is the way to go!
In terms of operations, remember: high throws and low buys within the range, light positions + stop losses, don’t give the market makers money!