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Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will decide on the rate again
🔵 The market is pricing in a 98% probability of a 0.25% increase. If so, the rate will rise to 0.75% − the highest since 1995.
❓ What happened before?
When the Bank of Japan raised the rate, Bitcoin dropped every time initially:
July 2024, rate 0.25%, BTC -26% in 8 days.
January 2025, rate 0.50%, BTC -25% in 20 days.
🔵 Each of these drops turned out not to be an end, but a beginning. After Japanese decisions, the market bounced back, recovered, and eventually reached new highs.
In the short term, the market is under pressure and nerves. In the medium term, nothing new, Japan has scared the market more than once.
🔵 The market is pricing in a 98% probability of a 0.25% increase. If so, the rate will rise to 0.75% − the highest since 1995.
❓ What happened before?
When the Bank of Japan raised the rate, Bitcoin dropped every time initially:
July 2024, rate 0.25%, BTC -26% in 8 days.
January 2025, rate 0.50%, BTC -25% in 20 days.
🔵 Each of these drops turned out not to be an end, but a beginning. After Japanese decisions, the market bounced back, recovered, and eventually reached new highs.
In the short term, the market is under pressure and nerves. In the medium term, nothing new, Japan has scared the market more than once.
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$XRP just exploded on the charts! The Grayscale $GXRP spot ETF is absolutely dominating with a huge trading volume of $6.11 million today. Total trading volume #XRP: $23.45 million.
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Binance XRP supplies are depleting.
Low supply with high demand will push the price up!📃 🪙 💰 🇺🇸✅
Low supply with high demand will push the price up!📃 🪙 💰 🇺🇸✅
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Not your keys − not your crypto
🔵 June 2011. The Mt. Gox exchange was hacked. Due to manipulation of the BTC price, it briefly dropped to ~$0.01.
🔵 American gamer Kevin Day managed to buy 260,000 BTC. He managed to withdraw 643 BTC before the exchange halted trading.
🔵 Next, the key point: Mt. Gox canceled all transactions made during the hack, arguing it was a technical error and an invalid price. Kevin's balance on the exchange was simply reset to zero.
🔵 This was not an ordinary market, but a failure due to stolen accounts and sales at $0.01. Mt. Gox legally deemed the transactions invalid.
🔵 Kevin did not file a lawsuit, although he could have formally tried. The 643 BTC he withdrew remained with him forever.
🔵 If valued at today’s prices, those 260,000 BTC would be worth about $23 billion today.
🔵 But in fact, it was an attempt to profit in a completely broken system, not a fair purchase at the bottom.
The lesson is the same as it was 14 years ago: not your keys, not your coins.
🔵 June 2011. The Mt. Gox exchange was hacked. Due to manipulation of the BTC price, it briefly dropped to ~$0.01.
🔵 American gamer Kevin Day managed to buy 260,000 BTC. He managed to withdraw 643 BTC before the exchange halted trading.
🔵 Next, the key point: Mt. Gox canceled all transactions made during the hack, arguing it was a technical error and an invalid price. Kevin's balance on the exchange was simply reset to zero.
🔵 This was not an ordinary market, but a failure due to stolen accounts and sales at $0.01. Mt. Gox legally deemed the transactions invalid.
🔵 Kevin did not file a lawsuit, although he could have formally tried. The 643 BTC he withdrew remained with him forever.
🔵 If valued at today’s prices, those 260,000 BTC would be worth about $23 billion today.
🔵 But in fact, it was an attempt to profit in a completely broken system, not a fair purchase at the bottom.
The lesson is the same as it was 14 years ago: not your keys, not your coins.
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Futures have updated their absolute maximum
🔵 In 2025, the trading volumes of futures in crypto surpassed ATH. The market is increasingly moving towards derivatives rather than spot.
🔵 Binance leads: $24 trillion in volume, which is more than OKX ($11 trillion). Next are Bybit, Bitget, and other exchanges. Hyperliquid has reached $2 trillion.
The market is currently about leverage and liquidations.
🔵 In 2025, the trading volumes of futures in crypto surpassed ATH. The market is increasingly moving towards derivatives rather than spot.
🔵 Binance leads: $24 trillion in volume, which is more than OKX ($11 trillion). Next are Bybit, Bitget, and other exchanges. Hyperliquid has reached $2 trillion.
The market is currently about leverage and liquidations.
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About altcoins without rose-colored glasses
🔵 Today, altcoins updated their local low. And this is against the backdrop of ETH/BTC growth, BTC dominance decline, Russell 2000 growth, and the end of QT.
🔵 I would be happy to write that the altseason starts tomorrow and throw together a hundred charts on "why the growth is about to start." But when the market is in a downtrend − it is in a downtrend. One can explain for a long time why a penguin should fly: it has wings, feathers, a beak. But as long as it doesn't lift off the ground − it isn't flying.
🔵 A reversal will happen, almost certainly. But everything has its time and place. As long as there is no momentum and influx of money, nothing will change. And tales about the best buyback of coins at -80-90% levels are written for the inexperienced. A strong risk-reward appears after confirmation, not before it. The asset will still be significantly below its highs.
It's not about bulls or bears. The most profitable bulls are those who deploy capital when it really makes sense. Altcoins do not look bullish right now. At least not for now.
🔵 Today, altcoins updated their local low. And this is against the backdrop of ETH/BTC growth, BTC dominance decline, Russell 2000 growth, and the end of QT.
🔵 I would be happy to write that the altseason starts tomorrow and throw together a hundred charts on "why the growth is about to start." But when the market is in a downtrend − it is in a downtrend. One can explain for a long time why a penguin should fly: it has wings, feathers, a beak. But as long as it doesn't lift off the ground − it isn't flying.
🔵 A reversal will happen, almost certainly. But everything has its time and place. As long as there is no momentum and influx of money, nothing will change. And tales about the best buyback of coins at -80-90% levels are written for the inexperienced. A strong risk-reward appears after confirmation, not before it. The asset will still be significantly below its highs.
It's not about bulls or bears. The most profitable bulls are those who deploy capital when it really makes sense. Altcoins do not look bullish right now. At least not for now.
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Morning market overview
The market remains weak. Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, altcoins are declining.
📈 Biggest losers: LEO -26%, MYX -12%, ASTER -11%.
📈 BEAT has risen by 45%, PIPPIN +9%, CC +6%.
Fear and greed index 17 — extreme fear.
The market remains weak. Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, altcoins are declining.
📈 Biggest losers: LEO -26%, MYX -12%, ASTER -11%.
📈 BEAT has risen by 45%, PIPPIN +9%, CC +6%.
Fear and greed index 17 — extreme fear.
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Experts have once again missed their forecasts for #BTC by the end of 2025
Here are their expectations:
▫️$170k — JPMorgan
▫️$180k — VanEck
▫️$200k — Standard Chartered
▫️$250k — Tim Draper
▫️$126k — Tom Lee
▫️$350k — Robert Kiyosaki
▫️$500k — Chamath Palihapitiya
And also Michael Saylor (150–300k), Larry Fink (hinting at $700k with active adoption by sovereign funds).
And now, on December 17, 2025, BTC is trading around $87k — lower than at the beginning of the year (~$94k), despite all the hype with Trump as the crypto-president, strategic reserve, and mass adoption.
This once again confirms: forecasts from top experts and giants like BlackRock are often just a shot in the dark. Even with the best analysts in the world, the crypto market remains unpredictable.
But essentially: experts are people too, their models are based on patterns that do not always work. No one can predict the future.
And remember, your money is your responsibility. Make decisions for yourself, dive into new topics, lock in profits without waiting for the "perfect" point. Don't forget to think critically and enhance your psychological resilience 💪
Here are their expectations:
▫️$170k — JPMorgan
▫️$180k — VanEck
▫️$200k — Standard Chartered
▫️$250k — Tim Draper
▫️$126k — Tom Lee
▫️$350k — Robert Kiyosaki
▫️$500k — Chamath Palihapitiya
And also Michael Saylor (150–300k), Larry Fink (hinting at $700k with active adoption by sovereign funds).
And now, on December 17, 2025, BTC is trading around $87k — lower than at the beginning of the year (~$94k), despite all the hype with Trump as the crypto-president, strategic reserve, and mass adoption.
This once again confirms: forecasts from top experts and giants like BlackRock are often just a shot in the dark. Even with the best analysts in the world, the crypto market remains unpredictable.
But essentially: experts are people too, their models are based on patterns that do not always work. No one can predict the future.
And remember, your money is your responsibility. Make decisions for yourself, dive into new topics, lock in profits without waiting for the "perfect" point. Don't forget to think critically and enhance your psychological resilience 💪
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SOL for $5 and lawsuit against PumpFun
🔵 In the USA, the court has allowed the updated class action complaint against PumpFun and related companies in the Solana ecosystem to proceed.
🔵 This is not a verdict or an admission of guilt, but a formal acceptance of the claim into the proceedings.
🔵 The essence of the claims is simple: the plaintiffs argue that during meme launches, insiders received priority at the expense of validators' work and the order of transactions, while retail was systematically taken out. Familiar to anyone who traded on PumpFun.
🔵 For now, these are accusations, not proven facts. The court has not yet said that Solana is guilty or that its architecture is illegal. This is just the start of a long investigation.
This is reputational noise + legal uncertainty, but no more.
🔵 In the USA, the court has allowed the updated class action complaint against PumpFun and related companies in the Solana ecosystem to proceed.
🔵 This is not a verdict or an admission of guilt, but a formal acceptance of the claim into the proceedings.
🔵 The essence of the claims is simple: the plaintiffs argue that during meme launches, insiders received priority at the expense of validators' work and the order of transactions, while retail was systematically taken out. Familiar to anyone who traded on PumpFun.
🔵 For now, these are accusations, not proven facts. The court has not yet said that Solana is guilty or that its architecture is illegal. This is just the start of a long investigation.
This is reputational noise + legal uncertainty, but no more.
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ETH supply on exchanges is at a minimum since 2016
The amount of ETH on centralized platforms has decreased to 8.8% of the total volume, which is a multi-year low.
Analysts refer to this as a 'supply shock': with a lack of coins on exchanges, any increase in demand can sharply raise prices due to a lack of liquidity.
The amount of ETH on centralized platforms has decreased to 8.8% of the total volume, which is a multi-year low.
Analysts refer to this as a 'supply shock': with a lack of coins on exchanges, any increase in demand can sharply raise prices due to a lack of liquidity.
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Still waiting for BTC to bounce to 100-108k$
So far, everything is going according to plan📈
Bitcoin is holding the lower boundary of the channel, as expected. Small candles below are permissible.
So far, everything is going according to plan📈
Bitcoin is holding the lower boundary of the channel, as expected. Small candles below are permissible.
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🚨HUGE NEWS! 🚨
SBI Holdings × Startale Group.
🇯🇵Soon there will be a yen-backed stablecoin for the global market. Banks. Institutions. Real applications. Subtle steps → huge impact. Are you closely following the developments? $XRP 👀💴
SBI Holdings × Startale Group.
🇯🇵Soon there will be a yen-backed stablecoin for the global market. Banks. Institutions. Real applications. Subtle steps → huge impact. Are you closely following the developments? $XRP 👀💴
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Trump is once again dropping the markets
Trump: Today at 21:00 EST I will address the nation from the White House. The year has been great, and it will only get better (please no, we've had enough 😞).
Another address. Another chance that the markets will tumble.
Trump: Today at 21:00 EST I will address the nation from the White House. The year has been great, and it will only get better (please no, we've had enough 😞).
Another address. Another chance that the markets will tumble.
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Is now the best time to buy?
🔵 In this cycle, BTC has gone into deep correction three times: -34%, -32%, and now -36%.
🔵 The previous two such drops turned out to be excellent points to buy, after which the market turned upward.
🔵 In this cycle, BTC has gone into deep correction three times: -34%, -32%, and now -36%.
🔵 The previous two such drops turned out to be excellent points to buy, after which the market turned upward.
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On BTC locally
For now, we are moving within the framework of our descending plan. Yesterday, the asset tested the imbalance of $89,400-$87,100 and received a downward reaction; currently, we are trading around $86,300.
The main scenario is a continuation of the decline towards the liquidity pools of $83,800-$80,600. These two levels will be the main targets for the coming days. If we do not see a reaction from these liquidity pools, the next target will be $74,500.
For now, we are moving within the framework of our descending plan. Yesterday, the asset tested the imbalance of $89,400-$87,100 and received a downward reaction; currently, we are trading around $86,300.
The main scenario is a continuation of the decline towards the liquidity pools of $83,800-$80,600. These two levels will be the main targets for the coming days. If we do not see a reaction from these liquidity pools, the next target will be $74,500.
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Active short positions on BTC and ETH🔎
Traders are actively betting on price declines.
▶ If BTC rises to $97,000, liquidations will reach $6.5 billion.
▶ If ETH rises to $3300, liquidations will amount to $3.85 billion.
Traders are actively betting on price declines.
▶ If BTC rises to $97,000, liquidations will reach $6.5 billion.
▶ If ETH rises to $3300, liquidations will amount to $3.85 billion.
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Morning market overview
📈 Bitcoin is trading around $86,000—87,000, with no significant movements or shifts so far. Ethereum is hovering below $3,000, altcoins are waiting. No one is showing significant dynamics, some have risen by 5–10%, while others have fallen by about the same amount.
The fear and greed index is at 16 — extreme fear.
📈 Bitcoin is trading around $86,000—87,000, with no significant movements or shifts so far. Ethereum is hovering below $3,000, altcoins are waiting. No one is showing significant dynamics, some have risen by 5–10%, while others have fallen by about the same amount.
The fear and greed index is at 16 — extreme fear.
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Why this will be a different cycle.
🔵 Goals for next year: BTC $200,000, ETH $8,000, SOL $800. Not because of hype, but because of structure.
🔵 The year 2026 looks like the start of a real institutional phase. Crypto stops living by a pure 4-year cycle and begins to behave like a macro asset class. Capital flows in not in waves of emotion, but through systematic distribution.
🔵 The year 2026 looks like the start of a real institutional phase. Crypto stops living by a pure 4-year cycle and begins to behave like a macro asset class. Capital flows in not in waves of emotion, but through systematic distribution.
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Urgent news: The US currency controller's management has officially confirmed that American banks can buy and sell crypto assets!
Ripple National Trust Bank.
Boom! #XRP #RLUSD #XRPETF📃 🪙 💰 🇺🇸😉🔥
Ripple National Trust Bank.
Boom! #XRP #RLUSD #XRPETF📃 🪙 💰 🇺🇸😉🔥
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About the current meme coin market
🔵 Memes have entered a strange phase of fear. Retail is currently avoiding anything above $50K cap. This is largely due to Pumpfun, which completely changed the mindset for entering new projects.
🔵 Previously, launching a meme meant presales, allocations to the team, a long liquidity build-up, and community engagement. It was flawed, but it made projects work.
🔵 Previously, launching a meme meant presales, allocations to the team, a long liquidity build-up, and community engagement. It was flawed, but it made projects work.
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