一舟-Flow

ETH short-term strategy, whether to follow or not is up to you.

Starting to enter long positions around 2737,

not catching the bottom, but a rebound order after a significant drop.

The plan is very simple:

Rebound target: 2780～2800

Stop loss: below 2710

Leave once it reaches, no adding positions, no fantasies

The logic of this order is one:

It has dropped too smoothly, let's first take a rebound.

If it directly breaks below 2710,

it indicates that the bears have not finished, admit the mistake and exit, wait for the next opportunity.

No predictions, no calls,

just putting out what I see and what I do.

The market always has the next order,

staying alive is more important than winning one order.

#ETH

#实盘思路

#短线交易

#只做有止损的单

ETH's current trend, to put it bluntly, is about who is stubborn and who pays the price.

In the last 4 hours, the pressure has been downward, with each rebound weaker than the last,

This is not a washout; it is the bears clearly at work.

Those still calling for a bullish stance at 2880～2980,

It's not that they can't understand the charts; they just refuse to lose.

The real buying positions are always at the places that make you reluctant to buy.

At 2620～2580, only the first time arriving there has rebound value,

At this kind of middle price level, it's the easiest to wear people down.

Remember this saying:

Before the trend is complete, all actions against the trend are just paying tuition to the market.

The market lacks belief,

What it lacks are people who can survive to the next phase of the market.

#ETH

#加密货币

#行情分析

#顺势交易

#不做韭菜

ETH 1H Structure

1️⃣ Current Status

After sharp decline, entered sideways consolidation

Belongs to the repair box after a decline

Key Interval

🔴 Upper Resistance: 2970
Only if we break above with volume → then there will be a continuation of the rebound

🟢 Lower Support: 2870
If broken → continue downward trend

Market Judgment:
Below 2970: Weak oscillation
Break above 2970: Look for short-term rebound
Break below 2870: Choose downward direction, follow the trend

Summary in One Sentence

👉 The hourly level is "waiting for direction"; if the range is not broken, do not bet prematurely.
#ETH走势分析

ETH 4H Structure

1️⃣ Formation
Formation of a head and shoulders structure
The right shoulder rebounds weakly, has fallen back below the neckline

👉 Structure has a bearish bias

Key Positions

🔴 Upper rebound target / Resistance
3055 – 3095
Belongs to the rebound repair zone, no breakout, no reversal observed

🟡 Current bullish-bearish dividing line
2950 – 3000
Repetitive tug-of-war, direction pending selection

🟢 Lower target / Support
2710 – 2690
4H level bearish target zone

Operational Thoughts (Short-term)
Do not chase longs above 3050 on the rebound
Bearish bias near 3050
Effective breakout below 2870 → Look for 2710–2690
Re-establishing above 3100 and stabilizing → Head and shoulders failure

Summary in One Sentence

👉 The 4H structure has a bearish bias, currently just a consolidation during a rebound, with the direction still looking towards the lower support area.
#ETH走势分析

ETH 日线结构

1️⃣ 趋势变化

日线结构已从空头（顶低+底低） → 多头（底高+顶高）
属于：下跌后的结构修复阶段，不是主升

关键区间

🟢 下方支撑
2870 – 2720：日线核心支撑区
跌破并收日线下方 → 结构再度转弱

🟡 多空分水岭

3055 – 3100
站稳之上，结构偏多
失守则回归震荡偏弱

🔴 上方压力

3255 – 3455 – 3655
压力带密集，反弹逐级受阻
未放量突破前，只当反弹

操作思路：

3100 上方：可低多思路，看反弹延续
3250 附近：减仓 / 防回落
跌破 2870：放弃多头，防回踩 2720

一句话总结：

👉 日线已修复，但仍在压力带下方；先看反弹高度，不急着谈趋势反转。
#ETH走势分析

ETH Weekly K Structure：

1️⃣ Trend Status

Clearly in a Downtrend Channel

Currently a Rebound Repair ≠ Reversal

2️⃣ Key Signals

Last week formed a Doji:

👉 Downward momentum weakening, bulls and bears entering a contest

Price is currently at:

Midline of the downtrend channel + Key Fibonacci level

Key Positions

🔴 Upper Resistance

3230–3240: Doji High

3400–3500: Upper boundary of downtrend channel + Strong resistance zone

👉 Until effectively broken, the rebound is still considered a repair

🟢 Lower Support

2718: Doji Low & Short-term critical level

Weekly close below: Look for a dip

2450–2600: Weekly target support & Mid-term value area

Trend Projection

Stay above 3240 and close weekly steady

👉 Rebound extends, target 3640–3720

Break below 2718 and close weekly below

👉 Continuation downward, target 2450–2600

Summary in one sentence

👉 The weekly outlook remains bearish, the doji is just a "deceleration signal," not a reversal signal.

👉 Direction choice, watch the weekly close at 3240 and 2718.
#ETH #ETH走势分析

#ETH #ETH走势分析
ETH Monthly K Analysis
Current Stage：

Mid Bull Market → High Pullback → Waiting for Direction Confirmation, Not the End of the Bull Market.

Monthly Level Trend Unbroken

The Market is in a Large Pullback / Value Reassessment Zone

The Key Going Forward is Not 'Will It Drop', But:

👉 Where to Stop the Drop + Can It Re-Stand at the Key Golden Ratio Level

From a Structural Perspective, December is Likely to Form a Cross-Shaped Stop Drop Pattern, Located in the Important Support Area of the Golden Ratio.

Conservative Funds Need to Wait for the Next Monthly Line's Large Bullish or Bearish Candle to Confirm the Mid-Term Direction.

Key Positions

First Defensive Zone (Long-Short Game)

📍 2750 ± 100

Bullish Defense is Obvious

But Does Not Exclude a Confirmation After a Drop

True Cost-Performance Zone:

📍 2450 – 2600

If It Drops to This Level, Sentiment and Public Opinion Will Clearly Turn Bearish

But Often This is Also the Area Where Medium to Long-Term Funds Begin to Layout

In Summary:

👉 Structure is Unbroken, Risk is Being Released, Opportunities Will Only Appear in Panic Zones.

麻吉大哥命硬！10.11 以来 200 次爆仓，亏掉 2200 万！

高杠杆疯狂追涨杀跌，平均每日 3 次爆仓，单次亏损 11 万！心理再强，也挡不住资金蒸发。

市场启示：
高杠杆容易瞬间清盘，稳健仓位才长久；
震荡区间低位分批建仓，高位严格止盈；
技术指标+量能验证，比盲目追热点可靠。

独立视角：
行情波动是常态，靠“命硬”不如靠策略。少数人的稳健操作，才是长线生存法则。

This time, the Federal Reserve may not want to save the market at all.

What is the market waiting for?
Interest rate cuts, dovish shifts, liquidity injections, a liquidity bull market.
But it’s very likely that you’re waiting in the wrong direction.

1. The so-called 'interest rate cut expectations' seem more like a story forcibly fabricated.
7 senior officials of the Federal Reserve clearly oppose interest rate cuts.
Powell's speech deliberately obscures the timeline, providing imagination but no commitments.
The long-term dot plot shows: only 2 rate cuts in 2026-2027.
👉 This is not the starting point of an easing cycle,

but rather 'long-term high interest rates + managing market expectations.'

2. Inflation is not a problem, so there is no reason to save the market.

Many people overlook one point:
The Federal Reserve itself believes that inflation is no longer the main contradiction.
Inflation is not urgent.
Market fluctuations are not considered systemic risks.

👉 So may I ask:

Why lower interest rates for asset prices?
The answer is: there is no motivation.

3. Weak employment data? It might be a 'false signal'.
The White House shutdown has led to missing employment data.
The scale of the error is about 60,000 people.
Missing data will be made up in January-February 2026.
👉 This gives the Federal Reserve a perfect reason:
'Let's wait and see.'

4. The real conclusion (also where it contradicts consensus)
The Federal Reserve currently has no intention of saving the market.
Only one situation would force them to act:
A continuous significant drop in the employment rate for 2-3 times
And cannot be explained by 'statistical error.'
Before that:
There will be no comprehensive interest rate cuts.
There will be no proactive support.
There will be no policy changes for market sentiment.
👉 A hard landing may be the precondition for real liquidity to return.

5. What does this mean for US stocks & crypto?
The current market does not equal a liquidity bull market.
It resembles: expectation games + fund rotations.
Fluctuations at high levels, false breakouts, and spikes will become the norm.
The real large-scale trends will not appear in a phase where 'everyone is waiting for a market rescue',

but rather after—

the market is hurt and confidence is completely killed.

The current problem in the market is not 'will it go up',

but: are you betting your hopes on a central bank that fundamentally does not want to save you? #加密市场观察 #美联储降息

I took the empty at 3172

But many institutions are buying now, what do you think?

#ETH走势分析 #ETH
The double bottom pattern formed in 3 days, with the right bottom forming a higher low ➕ higher high
Support level: 3033-2943, stop loss 2900.

#ETH走势分析
5-day line analysis: Long from 3005-2940, stop loss at 2840, target 3240-3440.

Evening review of the morning points. 3174···3065
Basic point-to-point prediction for today's intraday high and low points💰
#ETH

Still need to fall

#ETH走势分析

Four hours: 3174-3064 for oscillation, long position stop loss: 3020, short position stop loss: 3240
Wishing everyone plenty of gains

📉#BTC走势分析
BTC Weekly Report (12.15)
The weekly close is weak but still near the oscillation range EQ, not completely bad
The early session dipped to 876, closing below 883, with a weak structure

This week is mostly news-driven, waiting for volatility to confirm whether a trend emerges

Overall thought: leaning towards bearish
Key positions
Oscillation below 883: continue to lean bearish
Attention below: 85 / 78

Oscillation above 883:
First look at 906
Then look at 925
Further attention to the 94–95 area testing

Mysterious Address【1011 Insider Whale】has accumulated a recharge of 210 million USD in the past two days, and long positions have been opened, making the timing intriguing.

Address:
0xb317d2bc2d3d2df5fa441b5bae0ab9d8b07283ae

In the past two days, this address has accumulated approximately 210 million USD of funds recharged on-chain, attracting significant market attention.

More notably:
After completing a large recharge, this address has opened long positions, indicating a clear trading intent rather than mere fund allocation or transfer behavior.

Looking at the amount alone, 210M is not unprecedented;
But when combined with historical behavior and timing structure, this action becomes very sensitive.

Looking back at the last major event:

Trump announced an escalation of the tariff war, which also occurred on a Friday, and at that time, the market had already shown signs of similar early fund allocation before the news was released.

This current time window falls again on:
Before the weekend
Market liquidity is relatively shrinking
Emotions and expectations are easily amplified stages

Such timing often coincides with macro news / policy signals / high-level speeches, leading to sharp fluctuations.

From a behavioral perspective: this is not a trial order but an expected trade.

Judging from on-chain behavior, the operations of this address have several characteristics:

First concentrate funds, then uniformly build positions.

The scale of funds is sufficient to affect short-term price structures.

Not high-frequency short-term but rather colored with event expectations.

Unlike pure hedging or arbitrage behavior, this is more like:

Knowing what might happen in the next few days, so betting on the direction in advance.

Why is it worth continuous attention in the next two days?

Comprehensive judgment indicates that the next two days are a key observation window:
Whether to continue increasing positions / adjusting positions
Whether there will be volume fluctuations in line with market news
Whether there will be synchronous actions from other related addresses
Whether there will be sudden macro or policy-level information landing

All of these will verify whether this long position is:
A directional judgment of single funds
Or part of a larger narrative

Currently, we do not draw conclusions or make qualitative assessments, but we can confirm that:

When 210 million USD level funds complete recharges and open long positions at sensitive timing, it is already a signal that "needs to be taken seriously."

Moving forward, we will only do one thing:
Continuously monitor and wait for the market to provide answers.

Christmas 2019, Bitcoin fell
Christmas 2020, Bitcoin rose
Christmas 2021, Bitcoin fell
Christmas 2022, Bitcoin fell
Christmas 2023, Bitcoin rose
Christmas 2024, Bitcoin rose
Christmas 2025, Bitcoin __
#BTC

ETH Market Analysis: Short-term Bullish Support, New Trend Expected After Consolidation

🔵 Four-Hour Chart

ETH maintains a strong bullish trend, with the market still showing positive upward signals.

The auxiliary indicators show that bullish energy is about to take full control.

Once bulls take over, a sustained upward trend is expected to form.

Follow-up updates: Keep a close eye on whether it will break through key price levels and if it can continue to rise.

🔴 One-Hour Chart

It has entered a clearly defined consolidation range, and after the current price oscillates, it may welcome a new direction.

The market is uncertain in the short term, but the direction will become clearer after consolidation.

🟢 15-Minute Short-Term Chart

Short-term traders can mainly focus on low buys, with high shorts as a supplement.

In the current consolidation range, operate cautiously, focusing on the breakout situation of support and resistance levels.

🚨 Conclusion:

The medium-term outlook remains bullish, but in the short term, it may be necessary to find suitable entry opportunities during consolidation.

Once the price breaks through the consolidation range, the trend may become clear again.