atul 9903

"Chip concentration" data cannot be used as a basis for directional judgment, so is there any auxiliary indicator that can serve as a reference for directional judgment? Of course! For example, the "Exchange Purchasing Power Monitoring" indicator is one of them.
Its usage is very simple: a waveform above the zero axis (green) represents an increase in purchasing power, while below the zero axis (red) indicates a decline in purchasing power. As a liquidity provider with direct pricing power over BTC, the exchange's purchasing power can almost be equated to price actions.

(Figure 1)
For example: in Figure 1, the signal bar at the bottom changes from blank to the appearance of the first blue signal, indicating a shift in the exchange's purchasing power from decline to recovery, that is, a change from 0 to 1. Often at this point, it is very likely to be the starting point of a trend reversal. However, this is not 100% certain, and it may just be a rebound. But in any case, as mentioned earlier, it can serve as a directional reference, that is, when the signal changes 'from having to not having', the probability of moving downward is greater; while the signal 'from not having to having' indicates a greater probability of moving upward.

I. Market Macro Environment & Risk Sentiment Overview
1.1 Interest Rate Curve and Yield & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
• US Treasury 10Y (Current Value): Approximately 4.16%–4.17% (Recently oscillating in the 4.10–4.20% range). FRED +1
• US Treasury 2Y (Current Value): Approximately 3.49%–3.50% (Short end remains around ~3.5%). http://Investing.com
• Liquidity / Central Bank Operations: The Federal Reserve has initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), with the New York Fed announcing a monthly schedule starting from 12/12 and arranging about $40bn in short-term bond purchases in the first month to supplement reserves and alleviate short-term funding pressure— the market views RMP as a core signal of short-term liquidity (not traditional long-term QE, but will alter the distribution of short-term reserves). New York Federal Reserve Bank +1