甜梦讲币

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The essence of the market is "liquidity plunder," and retail investors are the only fuel. Who is actually harvesting?

Exchange perspective: They only need transaction fees, clearing leverage, listing fees, and capital accumulation. They do not care about the rise and fall of coin prices, only about volatility and trading frequency. Every action taken by retail investors is like providing blood transfusions to the exchange. Protecting users is essentially about ensuring that gamblers do not lose their funds too quickly, so they can continue to contribute transaction fees in the long run.

Project perspective: Cost chip realization, market value management, unlocking cashing out. The ultimate goal is to exchange the "air" in hand for the "real money" in the hands of retail investors. Retail investors need to take over to complete the commercial closed loop.

Market/market maker perspective: Bid-ask spread, creating liquidity traps, guiding emotions. They use algorithms and capital advantages to hunt retail investors' stop-loss points. The charts we see are often the "emotional traps" drawn by market makers.

You and I, traders - trading participants - the trading community are essentially all sheep.

1. Real institutional traders possess: millisecond-level APIs, insider information, unlimited bullets, and hedging tools.
2. So-called retail traders possess: delayed market software, lagging news, limited capital, and emotional decision-making.
3. The conclusion is that without information and capital advantages, individual traders are merely predicting the bets of larger gamblers.

The essence of the trading community is that it has a herd effect; the community often serves as an emotional amplifier and a reservoir for taking over. When the community is all shouting orders, it is often the best time for the main forces to sell off.

Do not treat the community as a safe haven for warmth, but this sense of security is precisely what is needed during harvesting - herding the flock together for an easy catch. Besides b/e/s, the essence of shouting counterfeit orders is to act as the sales agent for the project party, rather than an ally of retail investors.

关于行情我对未来多头不乐观，最简洁的话就是反弹起来就是空，没什么好说的，小币山寨行情也有aimeme等还有些此新币，都是有主力的都想着再掏点然后过年了，比较大的有钱的就是pippin的，前阵子也跟朋友说了声有很多对手盘，并且仓位开到了名义价值最大是补不了的，他们要么认输要么爆仓，也是在努力吃掉那些尸体，市场上你要说没钱了我的回答是有的还有很多没出手观望的，还有些自作聪明的想着去空小币的，前阵子说的钓鱼行情目的就是这个多撒网总会有人咬钩的，你所看到频繁画门现象也只是没人咬，大鱼吃小鱼本就天经地义。
你没能力在这行情赚钱该做的就是等待行情变的简单，赚简单的钱掏完就走，循环。

Last night, during the 4-hour level, a strong upward spike occurred, resulting in a violent inverted hammer candlestick, quite intense. It's equivalent to 300 million in capital entering the market, and within an hour, 350 million left immediately. First, clear the high-leverage short positions, then immediately hit the lowest point from the day before yesterday. Ethereum was even more violent, soaring to 3030 before directly crashing to a new low of 2788.

So when the market is being pushed up, definitely do not chase; a rapid increase will certainly lead to a swift decline. Generally, this is a case of pushing up to offload, a false rise. As long as it's a pullback, it has the tendency to lure in buyers. Try not to 'catch the bottom' before a significant downward spike occurs, as the 'bottom' you catch will only be a short-term bullish move, which will become ineffective within 12-24 hours.

BTC Price
1. Although Japan's interest rate hike is approaching, the BTC trend is weak, but the probability of a downward continuation or accelerated decline is almost zero, at least structurally speaking.
2. From the weekly perspective, BTC has adjusted to the 5th week at this position, and the end of the adjustment and the conclusion of news matches in terms of timing, with expectations of an end this week.
3. Structurally, there is hope for a weekly level rebound.

The current pullback of ETH is basically coming to an end, and the upcoming movement of Ethereum can be represented by the green and yellow arrows in the following image.

The rebound after hitting the bottom should not look back, so our third challenge officially starts registration. Come and enjoy a full bull run with Long Ge.

Personally, I lean more towards the movement represented by the yellow arrow. Let's wait and see.

ASTER BEAT PIPPIN These three bastards

are the most ferocious, the most shameless, the most disgusting, the most f***ed up that I've ever seen,

all they know is to manipulate the market without anything in hand,

how many times have they pumped it up in the past few days, they just come in for a sudden drop to harvest,

and then pump it to a new high.

ASTER even directly cut CZ.

The day before yesterday, BEAT increased and then exploded, now offering 100000,

who can help me catch this BEAT manipulator, this bastard.

BTC bounces back after completing the standard 886 shark pattern. According to the Bollinger Bands principle of breaking and retesting, it may retest the 4-hour middle line or upper band, corresponding to around 88-90k, which are potential resistance levels. Regarding the news:
- The probability of a rate hike in Japan exceeds 90%, there may be an opportunity to create a short squeeze, with a rebound after the monetary policy meeting;
- The US CPI is expected to be 3.0%. Based on oil prices and tariff information, it is likely that the probability of a bearish outcome is relatively high at 2.8-2.9%. Before the announcement, there might be an opportunity for a short squeeze. The uncertainty of the news landing + the relatively low position last week instead presents a good opportunity for long positions.
- The daily must-watch Bollinger Bands matrix shows concentrated support around 85k, with the weekly line around 82k, and resistance levels at 91-94k. In the next two days, it will be squeezed down a bit. Considering that 90-91k is a pretty good resistance level.
- The daily must-watch Bollinger Bands matrix shows concentrated support around 85k, with the weekly line around 82k, and resistance levels at 91-94k. In the next two days, it will be squeezed down a bit. Considering that 90-91k is a pretty good resistance level.

There are currently two factions
One faction believes that only BTC has value, and the altcoins have a value of 0
The other faction believes that: altcoins will rise because the demand for speculation and hype remains unchanged, and being tradable is its value

Among these two factions, one only holds BTC, while the other does not oppose BTC but still harbors fantasies about altcoins.

I tend to lean towards the former, believing that under the trend of altcoins being integrated into the U.S. stock market, they will be crushed by the 'altcoins' of the stock market.

A few small suggestions for now

First, keep an eye on the 19th. The Bank of Japan meeting is the next key time node. If they really raise interest rates by 25 basis points, BTC may test $80,000 or even lower.

Second, reduce leverage, and at least keep 30%. During periods of liquidity exhaustion, those who get liquidated often did not misjudge the direction, but cannot withstand the volatility.

Third, do not try to catch the bottom. The real bottom may appear in the 3rd to 4th week after the panic, not on the day of the panic.

History does not repeat itself, but always rhymes with the same endings. This time's "Christmas gift" may not be unwrapped until January next year.

December 19, we will take another look.

The weekly trend of the big pancake right now is very similar to the peak of the last bull market at the end of 2021:

1. After a similar one-sided surge, a sharp drop occurred. This situation is referred to in volume-price theory as 'initial supply'.

2. A similar secondary upward retest of the first high point formed a false breakout, with a high probability that the main force is madly selling during the final surge.

3. After the false breakout at the peak of the last bull market on the weekly level, the price dropped by 38% in the first wave, and currently, after this false breakout, the first wave drop is 36%, with both magnitudes being quite similar.

The current position is very likely that retail investors are buying in, while the main force is selling again. After the weekly level consolidation ends, it is highly probable that it will continue to plunge!

Currently, from the daily chart perspective, BTC has broken below 89000, with trendline support, and the MACD has crossed down, indicating a need for further pullback. At present, the trend is still downward, and rebounds can still be shorted. However, as long as it does not break below 80000, pullbacks can still be bought.
On the hourly level, BTC has not broken below 85000, it is recommended to buy on a pullback to 85800, with a stop loss at 85000 and a target of 87500.
From the sentiment indicators, around 11, if the data pulls back in the next couple of days, you can gradually enter, with a recommendation to buy at 83000, adding three layers every 1000 points down.
No one is a king forever, and there are always winners.
Trading is always about probability and luck.
However, some shameless individuals actually establish a persona of always making profits.
You can just tell how shameless such people are.

A review of the cryptocurrency world in 2025——

January: Good news, Trump launched a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin hit a new high; Bad news: his whole family launched cryptocurrencies.

February: The President of Argentina also launched a cryptocurrency; Bybit was hacked by North Korean hackers with 1.5 billion USD worth of ETH; Trump is imposing tariffs, MAGA!

March: Continued imposing tariffs; The White House held its first high-end crypto dinner, where attendees could receive a limited edition Trump kid genius watch.

April: Tariffs escalated, causing further impact on the market, BTC plummeted from 109K to 74K.

May: Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation was passed.

June: The Genius Act was passed in the United States.

July: RWA and stablecoin concepts became popular, BTC rose to 123K, a historical high.

August: The altcoin season began; major companies including Circle are set to launch their own public chains.

September: DAT (Digital Asset Treasury Company) stock prices fluctuated greatly, but the hype remained strong, with ETH, BNB, SOL, and other DATs continuing alchemy.

October: "10·11" consecutive liquidations, over 20 billion USD in liquidations across the network, exacerbating the already tight liquidity.

November: CZ received a pardon from Trump, and CZ stated, "Trump could be Satoshi."

December: SEC Chairman Atkins reiterated Project Crypto, everything on-chain.

In summary, the poorly felt bull market is Trump's bull market, the institutions' bull market, the precious metals bull market, the traditional finance bull market.

Most coins are not suitable for long-term holding
Except for Bitcoin and some platform coins and interest coins
Don't ask me if this can be bought or that can be bought
All coins in the crypto market, except for PoW coins,
Are not worth purchasing
If you are getting airdrops, you still don't understand
All coins are issued
They don't need value support, it's all said to be air
Are the coins that can be issued valuable?
Previous Ethereum was also PoW and has now changed
So in my heart, Ethereum is also garbage
I can't even be bothered to look at it
Big holders pledge Ethereum and take so much money from the protocol every day
Where does that money come from?

Do not buy any altcoins
But you will say
I see someone bought a certain altcoin and made how many times
He didn't tell you, there are tens of thousands of altcoins in the market
Only a few are making money
Can you guarantee that you are choosing the one percent?
Ninety-nine percent end up at zero

I will show you a data
2021 peak price of Sol: 260
Market cap: 75-80B
2025 peak price of Sol: 150-220
Market cap: 70-120B
Including Dogecoin, the top ten tokens can also be checked

The market cap hasn't changed much
But more has been unlocked
In other words, the same market cap
Requires more money to dilute
So the coins I buy
Only look at the locked circulation of 21 million

Characteristics of a bear market:

1. There will be more person-to-person line events
2. Events related to project parties and exchanges will become more frequent
3. Many content creators will try Web2
4. There will be frequent news about large companies laying off employees in the market
5. Big projects with high expectations will see a significant drop in the secondary market
6. However, there are still daily reports of whales and institutions hoarding coins
7. There are still good deals, but the window for price increases is getting smaller

The above occurrences happened in March of 19, 22, and 25
But sometimes when all of this happens, it signals a stage bottom.

ETH

1⃣
The market conditions are generally consistent with expectations from the 13th, and the trend line is likely to be broken to absorb liquidity. However, it is close to the support zone of 3000-3020, so shorting is not advisable. Unfortunately, it was only 2 dollars away from 3020, otherwise, the rebound profit from this wave would have been considerable.

2⃣
The support effect of the five-wave decline at the 1-hour level is very evident, so there is a higher probability of a short-term oscillating upward trend. The main direction is still focused on buying low.

3⃣
Support levels: 3050, 3100; Resistance levels: 3156, 3190

Characteristics of a Strong Upward Trend:

1. Moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and most K-lines are moving above the moving averages, with more bullish bars than bearish bars.

2. The overlap of the real parts of consecutive K-lines is low, indicating that the price continues to rise, even if slowly.

3. The upper and lower shadows of K-lines are relatively short.

4. After a breakout, the pullback's lowest price is higher than the breakout's resistance price line. After a significant breakout of the resistance level, there is a high-level consolidation, and the price movement during consolidation is relatively narrow.

5. The price has never fallen below the small time frame moving averages.

Binance Demon Coin Today Overview: (Although there are many ALPHA, there are few who control the market)

$SENTIS 0.03 all the way to 0.3, no contracts, unilateral control, just take a look.
$FOLKS A few days ago, the screen was full of strong players, after a wave from 47 to 20, it's easy to make a comeback, the strong remain strong, bullish if it doesn't break 23.
$NIGHT Current price 0.0656, take a look, the operating space for new coins is not large, learn from experience.
$BEAT Contract raised from 0.2 to 2.8, volume trading, has the charm of coins like COAI/MYX/AIA, large fluctuations in the upward trend, suitable for buying on dips, exit when the trend ends.
$JELLYJELLY is also a fierce member of the S chain, had a good entry logic at 0.08 yesterday, today at 0.11, trading is quite skilled, the trend is also strong, during the upward trend, the possibility of $PIPPIN cannot be ruled out, if trading, need to stay alert.
$ICNT volume trading, current price 0.42, converging breakthrough, gives a feeling of having a lot of space, suitable for buying on dips.
$POWER Not many K-lines, needs observation, current price 0.22, can be strong or weak.
$UAI Regular rise current price 0.2, the overall K-line also has a lot of charm.
$IRYS Observing trading.
$TAKE Daily line is quite strong, current price 0.35, this kind of trading is generally for most people.

Binance Alpha not only provides everyone with airdrop opportunities, but also the opportunity to profit from trading. Here, trading profit does not refer to participating in trading competitions, but rather choosing the right time to buy by analyzing the projects that are launched.

Most new projects launch on Alpha, and Binance's official Twitter usually gives a few days' notice in advance. These days allow us to carefully analyze the project's airdrop situation, the initial token circulation, etc. For example, looking at the recently launched $cys $us $rave, after the airdrop digestion, there is often a strong upward trend.

Part of the reason I feel is that Binance seems to have modified the rules for launching Alpha + Binance contracts simultaneously. If the project party wants to launch a contract, they should not act maliciously, and after day 2, they should decide based on the situation whether they can meet the conditions to launch the contract.

Another reason is that the initial chips are relatively few, making it easier for the project party to market, and users are also willing to buy in. As long as the requirements for the project party are high, retail investors are still very willing to enter the market for trading.

Twice the hourly line has hit the edge of the previous triangle, achieving a slight rebound.
However, the four-hour and daily OBV are still red, indicating a rebound without volume.
As the saying goes, things don’t happen more than three times; if it goes down again today, there may not be support, seen at 87.6k; or it could directly move strongly upward.
Last night, at the initial opening of the U.S. stock market, there was a slight indication of Americans stepping down. Today is Friday again, and we will have to watch the performance of the big players on Binance in the next couple of days.