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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes insists on his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will rise to $250,000 by the end of the year, an increase of about 170%. Hayes believes that Bitcoin has bottomed out, and last week's drop to $80,600 was the bottom, with a current rebound of about 12%. Hayes points out that the U.S. liquidity tightening cycle is nearing its end, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates by 25 basis points in October, and the market expects that quantitative tightening (QT) will end as early as early December, with an 87% probability of another rate cut on December 10. Additionally, the reset effect brought by the leverage liquidation in the crypto market on October 11 will provide upward momentum for Bitcoin. Although he admits that predictions may deviate, he remains optimistic in the long term.

Do you think the bull market will come again?

The market has shown signs of fatigue after a slight rebound, and the clear buying signals that appeared last week have already faded. Currently, Ethereum is gradually approaching the strong resistance zone between $3200 and $3250, which will serve as a key test of market strength.

Market sentiment has also shifted, with the optimistic atmosphere of 'buying on dips' replaced by panic, leading to an increase in potential liquidation risks, reflecting a relatively weak investor confidence. On-chain data further shows that the pace of accumulation by large Bitcoin wallets has slowed, while small retail wallets have started to accumulate — this change in holding structure typically suggests that the market may face retracement pressure.

Overall, the market is facing multiple tests after a brief rebound, and the confidence of major participants has weakened. In this environment, it is advisable to remain cautious and wait for clearer signals or more prudent strategies.
#等待市场更明确的信号 # ETH#BTC

$Why Bitcoin Will Not Decline

The mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin in 2008, and it has not only survived multiple market fluctuations and doubts but has also demonstrated remarkable resilience.

The reason Bitcoin will not decline lies in its unique value positioning. Its scarcity design, with a total supply capped at 21 million coins, makes it the "digital gold" in the digital world, and this fixed supply model has become an effective tool against inflation.

Bitcoin's underlying technological architecture determines its durability. It is not only a medium of exchange but also a permissionless global consensus system that supports upper-layer application innovation as a foundational settlement layer.

Unlike traditional financial instruments, Bitcoin has created a completely decentralized financial system that does not rely on any central authority or government endorsement. This decentralization feature endows it with powerful censorship resistance.

In recent years, institutional funds have poured into Bitcoin through products like Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually being accepted by the traditional financial system. At the same time, Bitcoin's network effect and community ecosystem continue to expand and strengthen.

Looking to the future, with the advent of the AI era, autonomous AI agents may require a global, borderless settlement layer, and Bitcoin happens to possess all the characteristics needed for the "native currency of the algorithmic age."

Bitcoin is not just a cryptocurrency; it is also a trust foundation based on mathematics and cryptography. This fundamental characteristic ensures that it will not easily decline but will continue to play an important role in the digital economy #比特币为什么不会衰落 $BTC

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Has Bitcoin already bottomed out?
After several weeks of sluggishness, Bitcoin launched a strong rebound on November 26, breaking through the $90,000 mark and regaining ground lost on Tuesday. This rise not only broke the market convention before Thanksgiving but was also the result of three favorable factors: macroeconomic expectations, capital inflows, and improvements in market structure.

Macroeconomic data drives market confidence

The latest employment data from the United States shows that the number of initial unemployment claims has dropped to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April, significantly boosting investor confidence. Although the PPI report indicated a slight increase in wholesale prices due to rising energy and food costs, the core PPI's increase (2.6%) is the smallest since July 2024. Analysts believe this report could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider another rate cut in December.

After the report was released, JPMorgan economists urgently revised their forecasts, believing the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in December, overturning their judgment made a week prior that policymakers would delay cuts until January next year. Their research team noted that several heavyweight Federal Reserve officials (especially New York Fed President Williams) have expressed support for a recent rate cut, prompting them to reassess the situation.

JPMorgan currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points in December and January next year.

Under the catalyst of macroeconomic positives, Bitcoin's price surged nearly 4% on the day to over $90,000; Ethereum (ETH) rose 2% to $3,025. Major altcoins including XRP, Solana (SOL), and BNB also saw increases. The total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market reached $3.08 trillion, rebounding nearly 3% within 24 hours, with a trading volume of $139 billion. Bitcoin's market capitalization share rebounded to 56.5%, while Ethereum accounted for 11.5%.

Capital flow reversal, ETF shows siphoning effect again

The ETF capital situation has shown significant improvement.

Previously, the market faced severe capital outflow pressure, even breaking historical records. However, Wednesday's data showed that Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $129 million, Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of over $78 million, Solana (SOL) ETFs increased by $53 million, and XRP ETFs attracted $35 million. Driven by macro confidence, institutional capital is being reallocated to the cryptocurrency market.