BTC小诸葛

Friends who want to sprint and succeed, look here! Let's sprint together and let Xiao Zhuge work with everyone to seize this opportunity again! Xiao Zhuge is now recruiting strong players (5 spots)

Threshold: Starting from 5000 oil
If the funds are too small, you can only be led by the market; only with adequate funds can you truly execute high-frequency, stable, and systematic layouts. If you want stability, precision, and to seize the market dividends, having confidence is more important than skills. Ten days, five times; it's not just a slogan, it's practical results.

Xiao Zhuge's advantage has never been just talk, but the ability to capture turning points in advance, precise timing in rhythm, and extreme restraint on risks. Every entry has its logic, and every profit has its basis —
No speculation, no playing with false flames, only doing what can be understood and calculated accurately.
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$ZEC $XRP $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #ETH巨鲸增持 #特朗普加密新政

Isn't the market trend clear enough? Going short is the best strategy. This morning, I led my friends to secure a victory, and Auntie Bitcoin collectively harvested 3700 oil!
$BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息

The gold rebound has basically reached the target, and the bearish window has reopened. The current price level provides conditions for entering short positions, with a priority to look for a pullback to the 4280 line during the day; the medium-term structure remains unchanged, and the long-term short position target is still locked at the 4240 area!

Trend is the core of trading. As long as the downtrend is not broken, the bearish logic still holds, and long-term short positions should remain steadfast, just hold patiently. The market provides opportunities, and execution must be decisive.
#黄金 #美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

12.16 Big Cake Aunt's Morning Thoughts

The Nikkei has already started to react. As we get closer to the December 19th interest rate hike by the central bank, the pressure will only increase. Once a continuous decline forms inertia, the subsequent damage is often much worse than expected.

This time, the market sentiment is obviously different. Since Powell's last speech, market expectations for this non-farm payroll report have been significantly elevated, with everyone betting on data looking 'good.' This data is directly related to whether the subsequent interest rate cut expectations can hold.

In summary: This is a key data point that can directly ignite or extinguish market sentiment and must be closely monitored.

Take another look at the U.S. stock market — at this position, signs of instability have already begun to appear. It just needs one last bucket of water, and it could collapse right before your eyes.

From a technical perspective, the situation is not optimistic: on the 4-hour chart, the price has directly breached the lower Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Bands overall showing a downward opening, which is a typical downward trend formation. After breaking the band, there has been no decent retracement, and the price has been firmly pressed near the lower band, indicating that the bearish control remains strong. In terms of MACD, the death cross structure continues to extend, and the green momentum bars are not only not shrinking but are actually increasing, which means — the bears haven't finished yet. Although KDJ has entered the oversold zone, the golden cross has yet to appear, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are not active. Even if there is a rebound, the strength is likely to be limited. More importantly, we need to be wary of the market testing new lows again.

In summary:
📌 Now is not the time for emotional rebounds, but rather a phase to guard against 'another kick.'
📌 Data, interest rate expectations, and technical structures resonate together, with short-term risks still leaning downward.

Personal Advice
Big Cake: Enter at 86500-87000, targeting a downward look at 85000, and if it breaks, look at 83000!
Aunt: Enter at 2970-3000, targeting a downward look at 2860, and if it breaks, look at 2600!
$BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向 #美联储FOMC会议

Brothers, hold on to your short positions, continue to hold!
Long-term target looks at 74000, 2400!
$BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息

12.15 Pancake Aunt's Morning Thoughts

From the current market structure, after two consecutive bearish candles, the daily level has entered a sideways fluctuation range, and the overall pace has clearly slowed down, showing typical characteristics of weekend trading—light trading volume and insufficient willingness to choose a direction. Although prices have not yet shown accelerated downward movement, the recovery momentum is also limited, with the rebound height continuously constrained.

In terms of technical indicators, the KDJ has confirmed a dead cross at a high level and continues to diverge downwards, indicating a clear signal of weakening short-term trends, further solidifying the bearish dominance. Before the trend is effectively reversed, any rebound is more likely to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

At the same time, although the MACD histogram remains red, it operates below the zero axis and continues to expand, reflecting that bearish momentum has not materially diminished. During the market's rebound process, trading volume has not formed effective cooperation, and the willingness of bulls to follow up is clearly insufficient, so a high short position can still be taken in the morning.

Personal Suggestions
Pancake: 90300-91000 enter short, target looking down at 88000, break below looking at 85000!
Aunt: 3100-3130 enter short, target looking down at 3000, break below looking at 2860!
$BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议

12.11 Bitcoin Aunt's Evening Thoughts

On the hourly chart, although the price has repeatedly formed lower shadows near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating short-term support, the rebound has been consistently limited by the middle band, failing to generate a significant upward breakout. After multiple dips, while there has been temporary support, it has not been able to convert into sustained upward momentum, reflecting a lack of follow-through buying in the market and ongoing weak bullish sentiment. The current consolidation leans more towards a correction after the release of bearish momentum, with the overall structure still in a weak accumulation state.

In terms of indicators, the 4H MACD maintains green bars expanding below the zero line, with DIF and DEA diverging downward. The RSI has quickly pulled back from the overbought zone. If the short-term head breaks below the lower support line, the downside space will open up!

Personal Suggestions
Bitcoin: Enter at 90500-91200, target downward to 89k-88k, break below to see 85k!
Aunt: Enter near 3250, target downward to 3150-3100, break below to see 3000!
$BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #Token2049新加坡

This wave of interest rate cuts is entirely consistent with my previous judgment; the overall trend in the market is still heading south. The main players have never been reckless; there’s no reason to force a lift in such a structure—it's just providing a boost for the bears. Yesterday's brief rebound was merely due to the excessive accumulation of short positions above, and it was just a matter of clearing them out. Once the positions are harvested, the market will naturally continue to dive.

Now, the main players' scythe is glaringly obvious, and the direction couldn't be clearer. Follow the rhythm of the little Zhuge, and don't blindly rush in to be fodder. Market trends are not viewed through emotion but through logic. If the position isn't right, wait; only move when the point is reached.
$BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

Last night before going to bed, BTC suddenly surged, seemingly due to the market anticipating interest rate cuts, but upon closer examination of the recent capital structure—there is no significant influx of new funds. It appears more like the main players quickly driving the price up based on news, testing the waters for a bullish sentiment.

At this time, many people start shouting "the bull is back." But I disagree.
From the perspective of retail investors, any increase indicates a bull market. However, from the perspective of the main players, that is far from enough: a truly significant market movement must be accompanied by sufficient turnover and deep accumulation. But now? Neither signal has appeared. So I will neither take a fully bullish stance nor rashly follow the trend.

Some ask: Is there a chance of a sudden positive development, causing the entire market to take off? I can only say—the possibility is almost zero. The essence of the crypto market is a battleground for main players and manipulators; without prior accumulation, they will never lift the retail investors' boats.

As for today's operations, my advice is just one sentence: control your desires and hold back your hands. If you must place an order—be sure to set a stop-loss. In terms of direction: I will still maintain a bearish outlook.
$BTC #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

SOL has entered the end of the pullback in the 4-hour cycle, with prices consolidating along the lower boundary, and bearish momentum is weakening; a low-level stabilization and the formation of a bottom structure have appeared in the 1-hour cycle, and short-term buying pressure is beginning to strengthen.

Personal suggestion to enter between 130-132, with a target looking at 135-138, and a breakthrough at 142!
$SOL #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察

Today the bulls are still very strong, both the daily and 4-hour charts have stabilized. The long positions suggested in the morning have also successfully yielded gains, with Bitcoin rising 1500 points to 90700! The altcoin also has a space of 90 points!
$BTC $ZEC $BNB #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

The Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates this week, and many friends are unclear about the situation. Follow Little Zhuge, who is still offering a few spots to join. Starting at 5000 oil, together with Little Zhuge, we will issue at the current price in both short and medium-long term forms, leading everyone to recover and get back on shore!
$BTC $BNB $ETH #加密市场观察

December 18th Pancake Aunt's Morning Thoughts

Pancake has surged strongly, breaking through the key resistance of 91500, and the bulls have officially regained absolute control of the market! With this key level being forcefully conquered, the market has completely entered a new price exploration range, and the trend structure has been reinforced once again.

This breakout is not a mere emotional spike but is based on solid volume-price resonance: the moving averages are in bullish alignment, providing sustained upward momentum support; the upward trend line structure is intact, the central pivot is continuously rising, and the trend foundation is solid; proactive buying has consistently entered, and the capital flow is clearly bullish, driving prices higher step by step.

Against the backdrop of continuously accumulating momentum, the market is expected to further open up upward space, targeting the next stage's goal area. The current wave of market opportunities is prominent, and bullish holders should maintain a trend-following mindset, paying attention to the strength of support during pullbacks and continuing to follow up as a priority.

Personal Suggestions
Pancake: Enter long at 90,000-90,800, target looking at 91,500, 92,000, breakout looking at 93,000
Aunt: Enter long at 3,050-3,080, target looking at 3,150, 3,200, breakout looking at 3,300
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析 #隐私叙事回归

12.5 Bitcoin Aunt Morning Thoughts

From the 4-hour level, the price has decisively broken below the short-term upward trend line, and the bullish structure has been instantly pierced; the previous long bearish candlestick with significant volume resembles a bear's early warning of a downward trend, indicating a strong directional move. Additionally, a death cross has formed, and under this technical resonance, the subsequent market is highly likely to continue weakening along the established direction, with the downward pace possibly accelerating further.

Personal Suggestions
Bitcoin: Enter at 93000-93700, target downward at 92000, 90800; break below to watch 88000
Aunt: Enter at 3200-3230, target downward at 3120, 3060; break below to watch 3000
$BTC $ETH #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

12.4 Bitcoin Aunt Evening Thoughts

1H This wave has already ground to a close, the fluctuations are getting smaller and smaller, and market sentiment feels locked in a box, stifling. The upper range of 93k–94k has been attacked multiple times, all mercilessly smashed down, and the short-term top pattern is already very obvious. Below, 92k still provides some support, but each rebound is soft and weak, a typical case of "being pushed back down as soon as you lift your head".

MACD has already crossed to the downside, green bars are starting to gain strength; RSI has dropped directly to around 40, the entire rhythm has shifted into a weak zone; KDJ continues to cross downwards, the J value is plunging without any sign of stopping the decline.

4H is consolidating sideways, and 1H is sliding down, which is a standard short-term bearish oscillation structure. It’s not the kind of big top that is about to collapse, but it’s definitely not a place to chase long positions casually. The current bulls feel more like "not able to go up, not able to go down, and quite tired". The risk of chasing longs in the short term is much higher than the price seen.

Personal Suggestion
Bitcoin: Enter short at 93500-94000, target down to 92000-9w, if broken look at 88000!
Aunt: Enter short at 3200-3230, target down to 3100, if broken look at 3050!
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐

A new month, a new starting point. Little Zhuge will still only open a small number of slots for brothers with strong execution ability. Continue to snipe opportunities with Little Zhuge amidst the fluctuations, specifically targeting the rhythm that can recover health.

Starting from 5000 oil, 5 slots! The goal is to win back what has been lost. Those who want to catch up, see you in the chat room!
$ZEC $BNB $ETH
#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析

Dogecoin lacks short-term rebound momentum, and is still in a downward channel at the daily level, making short positions the optimal choice. Personally, I suggest entering a short position at 0.1385-0.140, with a target looking down to 0.135, and if it breaks, look at 0.13
$DOGE #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

The morning waterfall is simply too smooth, keeping up is just a money-making opportunity, with a short on Bitcoin at 90400, capturing nearly 3000 points of space, and 28k oil in Luodai!
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#加密市场反弹 #香港稳定币新规 #加密市场观察

This morning at 8 o'clock, the pancake was pressed against the ground and rubbed.

From 93000, it plummeted to 88500, a drop of 4.3% in one hour, and then continued to decline to 85555. ETH dropped 5%, BNB dropped 7%, and 210,000 people across the network were liquidated, with 640 million disappearing into thin air. This is not a randomly occurring black swan but a collective bearish signal of choir-level magnitude.

High leverage long positions were trampled.
Breaking below the key level of 90,000 instantly triggered 15 billion in forced liquidations, leading to a chain of liquidations → further price acceleration downwards → more liquidations, a typical case of killing the longs.

Xiao Zhuge explained the five core reasons behind this situation simultaneously:

1. The Federal Reserve turned hawkish.
The data in November was too strong, halving the expectations for interest rate cuts, the dollar soared, and Bitcoin was negatively correlated with interest rates at -0.9, with liquidity at freezing point directly draining the oxygen from high-risk assets.

2. ETF outflows for 7 consecutive weeks.
Institutions are not bottom-fishing but continuously withdrawing.
Last week, 88 million flowed out, and the funds that scrambled to buy at the beginning of the year have recently been dumping.

3. Regulatory uncertainty.
The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is stuck in the Senate, and the domestic emphasis on virtual currencies being illegal financial activities has resurfaced.

4. Long-term holders sold 800,000 BTC.

5. Technical weakness.
Falling 25% from the peak of 125,000, it was already on shaky ground.
The order book depth has shrunk, and sell orders can easily break through; even the Nasdaq's drop can drag BTC down with it.

The result is: macro tightening + institutional withdrawal + regulatory pressure + high leverage liquidations + technical collapse. This collectively triggered the knife this morning. Bitcoin is no longer a safe-haven asset but purely a risk asset, moving in sync with U.S. stocks. In the short term, it may hold around 86,000, but the pressure remains enormous. I personally predict it may need to touch 75,000 for a decent rebound. Starting off December like this, what follows—will only be more extreme stimuli…
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#加密市场反弹 #香港稳定币新规 #加密市场观察