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What to do when the adjustment ends?

If the market moves according to the analysis above and reaches a new high, you must not chase it. Additionally, when the adjustment wave ends, all spot positions must be liquidated.

It is very important to set up short contracts at potential turning points that may appear during the adjustment wave; there are opportunities for doubling.

The above are some personal views on the possibility of ETH reaching a new high again, for reference only. Subjective analysis is not a trading key and should not be used as a sole basis for trading; risk control is always the top priority. At the same time, be aware that if the market does not move as expected and goes directly to a new low, it means the above analysis is invalid, and the response will be another plan.

BTC is similar to ETH, but the structures are still different. If interested, you can discuss it with Yi Ming.

#ETH走势分析

How to trade a B-wave rebound? Is it advisable to participate in spot trading?

As mentioned before, the B-wave is a corrective wave, which is the most difficult phase to trade. The timing and pattern are uncertain, and signals change rapidly.

A corrective wave is, after all, a corrective wave, not a driving wave. After the correction, a driving wave will follow, and driving waves are downward.

If your trading skills are not strong, it's not recommended to buy spot at this stage. It's not worthwhile. Even if the previous analysis is correct, and the B-wave hasn't ended and there's still room for new highs, the current position has already moved at least 50%. What if the market doesn't follow this analysis? Entering spot trading will likely result in significant losses. Not all price swings are suitable for participation; some seemingly "opportunistic" opportunities should be missed.

Even if you believe you have the skills to participate in spot trading, you must consider the worst-case scenario. What if the market doesn't move as expected and makes new lows? How should you exit? These contingency plans must be in place before entering the market, not after you're already trapped.

In the remaining phase, Yiming plans to participate in: buying contracts on dips, but this requires confirmation of the chart pattern. Currently, no signal has appeared, and even if it's missed, participation should not be initiated without a signal. Furthermore, a fixed-amount stop-loss must be used as a risk management measure. Without these two prerequisites, participation in this corrective wave is not recommended; one should prepare for the subsequent driving wave.

#ETH走势分析

Why do we think that December 10th is not the end point of this rebound?

To propose this view requires great courage, but in the face of the current volatile market, everyone is confused. At this time, someone needs to step up and point the way, even if wrong, they should express their opinion.

The important reason is time. From November 21st to December 10th, there has been a total of only 19 days of rebound. This time, relative to the adjustment of wave A, is insufficient, mismatched, and uncoordinated.

Therefore, Yi Ming's view is that there will be more time nodes for high points to appear.

The turning point should occur between the 35th and 55th days, corresponding to approximately December 25th to January 15th of the following year. (Specific judgments need to be combined with the position and shape at that time)

#ETH走势分析

Why do we think ETH is in a B-wave rebound?

1: Time: From the peak on August 24 to the low on November 21, a total of 89 days (3 months), this 89 is a relatively important turning point in Fibonacci, and the 3-month period also aligns with the adjustment period of wave A.

2: Solar Terms: The turning point on November 21 corresponds to the Minor Snow solar term. Combined with the time perspective above, important time nodes also occur near solar terms, making it easier for market turning points to appear.

3: Space: From 4957 to 2620, the adjustment has accounted for 57.29% of the entire 3-year rise, which has exceeded 50% and is close to 60%. The target for the decline of wave A is within this range.

Summary: Key time nodes + reasonable space + solar terms, these three important elements overlap in judgment, and since November 21, what is happening is indeed the B-wave rebound. This rebound is an adjustment wave relative to the entire bear market, while the downward waves are the driving waves.

#ETH走势分析

Regarding ETH Market Views

Regarding the market, Yiming's viewpoint is: a fluctuating upward trend, with further rebounds to new highs expected.
Important viewpoints summarized:

1: The current market for ETH is in a B-wave rebound, and BTC will also rebound, but BTC's rebound should be seen as part of an A-wave decline, which is somewhat different from ETH's nature, leading to differentiated market movements.

2: The 3446 on December 10 for ETH is likely not the endpoint of this rebound, and there should be new highs ahead.

3: It is crucial to understand that the B-wave rebound is an adjustment wave in the overall bear market decline process. Among all wave structures, adjustment waves are the most complex and difficult to operate, so one must be cautious and consider the overall situation carefully.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

The Dual Cultivation of Traders: Technology is the Spear, and Capital Management is the Shield

Trading is a war. In this war, technical analysis is your 'spear', the tool for discovering market opportunities and choosing your attack direction. Whether it's moving averages, MACD, candlestick patterns, or other trading systems, they all help you judge trends and find entry points, with the aim of 'hitting the target and making a profit'.

On the other hand, capital management is your 'shield', the survival tool that protects you and defends against market counterattacks. It includes a series of rules like position sizing, stop-loss settings, profit-loss ratio planning, and drawdown control. Its sole purpose is to ensure that you do not suffer fatal damage in case of an attack misstep or market backlash.

The tragedy for the vast majority of retail investors is that they spend 90% of their time and energy honing that 'spear', trying to find the sharpest and most magical weapon, while completely ignoring the existence of the 'shield'.

The result is often: the offense looks sharp and can occasionally catch prey, but as soon as the market delivers a powerful counterattack, it can be completely defeated.

True trading masters are balanced cultivators of both the 'spear and shield'. They use the 'shield' (capital management) to define safe operational boundaries, and then within these boundaries, they wield the 'spear' (technical analysis) to strive for victory.

Offense determines how well you live, while defense determines whether you can survive. Starting today, value your capital management as much as you value your technical skills.

#加密市场反弹

BTC Trading Insights

In the past two weeks, the difficulty of trading has been quite high, and those who are actively trading must have deep feelings about it, especially trend traders.

The root cause is that the current market is in a corrective wave.

A corrective wave does not solely refer to a decline; the current larger cycle is a downturn, and the rebounds during this process are also corrective waves.

Characteristics of corrective waves: long duration, irregular shapes, and rapid changes in signals.

During this stage, trading frequency needs to be reduced. First, determine the overall direction, then identify key positions.

The current corrective wave is in response to the previous phase of decline, so the overall situation is an upward consolidation.

BTC's upper level faces resistance at the daily life line, while the lower level finds support at the daily life line, forming this consolidation range.

Reference range: 94000~86000

The difficulty of trading at the midpoint of this range is very high, so it should be avoided. Do not trade at non-key positions, do not occupy unfavorable terrain, and do not participate.

#BTC

New round of correction cycle?

Currently, there are four signals indicating that the market is entering a new round of correction.
(This is not a joke)

1: USDT.D This is the inverse indicator of BTC. It has tested the daily life line support twice without breaking it, and has rallied again.

2: BCH This asset's sensitivity is ahead of BTC, and it is also the second-tier mainstream with the largest rebound this time, approaching the weekly life line resistance. On the 8th, the daily line again showed a bearish engulfing pattern. Weekly life line resistance + daily bearish engulfing = new round of adjustment? New low?

3: ETH On the 26th, the article provided a reference for the resistance at 3420. Why mention this level? Because this is the 61.8 position of the weekly life line during the rebound. Now this asset's four-hour cycle shows a signal of turning empty again.

4: BTC This round of rebound has always been constrained by the daily life line resistance at the 93800 position. Why is this rebound weaker than ETH? Because during the previous correction, BTC's depth of correction was insufficient.

The above is the objective fact of the current market situation, just a summary, no fantasies, no speculation, no data analysis, and no fundamental analysis.

#BTC走势分析

Rhythm is very important

On November 26th, it provided a reference for the rebound position. Yesterday, I particularly emphasized getting out of the spot market; if you are slow, you will be punished.

You must have your own trading system and spend less time studying news, which is uncertain. Everything will eventually be reflected in the candlestick chart.

#BTC走势分析

Attention to spot trading

On the 26th, an article was posted here, indicating that ETH is experiencing a b-wave rebound.

Today, I want to remind you again.

Currently, in terms of both time and space, this b-wave rebound has already covered 70% of the space; chasing in the spot market now carries more risk than reward.

This b-wave rebound can be understood as a signal for all spot traders to exit, which is also a relatively ideal exit point during the entire (one year) correction cycle.

The decline of the c-wave is fast and has significant space.

#BTC走势分析

This is the market trend for the loom

In the past two weeks, it has not been very friendly for trend traders, as the market rhythm has changed too quickly.

Those who can 'buy low and sell high' may benefit.

In the absence of a clear trend, staying on the sidelines is the best choice.

#ETH走势分析

No need for so many phones, use an emulator on the computer to solve it.

Agree

Regarding BTC's intraday short-term trading

In the morning, there was a waterfall, and those who don’t understand the field started looking for reasons everywhere, either the domestic policy repression or the views of the Bank of Japan's market.

Remember, the market is always right; this kind of post-analysis is of no use.

It's simple, the rise of BTC and ETH since the 21st has reached the resistance of the daily life line, and this position was clearly written by Yi Ming last Wednesday on a certain platform.

The K-line structure will truly reflect the market trend, so take the time to study it calmly; at the very least, you should be able to judge the trend and know what to do at what position, that’s the key.

If you haven't mastered the basics yet, it might be better to put down your trades first and practice the fundamentals.

Currently: The four-hour cycle is bearish, and this signal came out on the 29th. Whether this bearish trend is a second pullback or a direct new low, we will leave it to time; the answer is with the market.

#BTC

#ETH走势分析

December Market View

First, let's talk about 2 objective facts regarding BTC currently

1: Just past November, the monthly closing of the BTC has fallen below the life line, which is the first time since the rise in November 2022.

2: The weekly BTC has closed below the life line for three consecutive weeks.

The above two points are objective facts about the market, not predictions. Based on these two objective facts, it can be directly determined that the high point on December 6th will be the endpoint of this rising cycle. No matter the position of any rebound afterward, it will not exceed this high point, at least for the next year.

#btc

Ethereum Analysis

In the previous content, it was discussed that Ethereum may have entered a b-wave rebound, and this content is shared separately.

The entire bear market's decline cycle is divided into abc three waves, where ac represents the downward wave, c wave is dangerous, fast, and has a large drop, while b wave is the rebound wave.

Not all rebounds are b waves, but the rebound at this position and time has a higher probability of being a b wave.

1: Time Aspect
From the high point on August 24 to the low point on November 21, it has been a total of 89 days, 3 months, which is also an important Fibonacci turning point time node.

November 21 is the day before the solar term 'Light Snow', with 'Light Snow' occurring on November 22.

2: Position

Since August 24, the decline has already wiped out 50% of the gains from the past three years. Generally speaking, the turning points of a wave and b wave also appear around the 50% mark.

3: Structure

Currently, the four-hour chart has持续站上生命线, exceeding 24 hours, indicating that short-term market signals have already shown bullish signs.

Key time + key position + changes in short-term structural patterns, these three conditions are currently present simultaneously, so it should be taken seriously.

The b wave rebound is very tempting and can easily be misjudged as 'the bull is coming'. During the upward process, a large number of chasing positions may become trapped, remember, this increase is for relieving those trapped, not for chasing more.

#ETH $ETH
$BTC

This is a rebound, not a reversal

First, it is important to clarify the overall big picture trend. From the weekly and monthly K charts of Bitcoin, it can be clearly seen that the weekly trend is in the right-side pullback period (bear market), and the monthly closing at the end of the month has a high probability of breaking below the lifeline. This overall trend is unlikely to change in the short term. During the entire pullback cycle, there will be rebounds, but do not regard rebounds as reversals.

#BTC : From the high of 126200 on October 6 to the low of 80600 on November 21, a total of 42 days. The pullback amplitude has just reached around 38.2%.

#ETH : From the high of 4957 on August 24 to the low of 2620 on November 21, a total of 89 days. This is an important Fibonacci turning point series over a period of 3 months. The pullback amplitude exceeds 50%.

From the perspective of time and space of this pullback, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown differentiated rhythms. Looking back at historical trends, they are basically in line. In 2022, Ethereum saw the bottom before Bitcoin, and this year, Ethereum saw the top before Bitcoin, which also conforms to logic.

Subjective views:
1: Ethereum is possibly in the b wave rebound currently.
2: Bitcoin's a wave adjustment has not ended, and the subsequent rebound space is limited.

Current situation: Bitcoin and Ethereum have been above the lifeline for more than 24 hours on the four-hour chart, which can be understood as a temporary stop of the decline. This stop of decline does not mean that new lows will not occur in the future, nor does it mean that today will definitely be a bullish line, but in the next few days, the probability of new lows is relatively small. The focus should be on buying at lower prices. Since this is the first time breaking above the lifeline, there is a high probability of a pullback confirmation action. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase directly.

Breaking above the lifeline determines the direction -- it is a fixed pattern, but it does not guarantee that trading will be profitable; finding a position is the core of the core. First, find the safety margin line for the pullback (stop-loss line), and then find a favorable terrain for ambush (entry position). Without a good entry position and a safe stop-loss position, even if the direction is correct, one will still stop-loss.

Since this is a rebound in the entire pullback process, every resistance position above should be taken seriously, especially avoiding chasing long positions near resistance levels. The following positions are for reference only:

Ethereum: 3120 3420 3910
Bitcoin: 93800 99200 110700

$BTC
$ETH