SpeculationLab

Many people who repeatedly win and lose in trading have a weak sense of "money" to begin with.
The moment they deposit into their account, they no longer see it as real money.
Therefore, their entries become careless, and they don't reflect on their trades, with only the thought of wanting to "hit it big" coming to the forefront.

Personally, I recommend withdrawing profits regularly once you make them. Actually use the money. It can be for meals or daily necessities.
Just by doing that, your approach to trading will definitely change.

The moment money is linked to "life" rather than being just a "number," trading becomes much more realistic.

Regarding the separate taxation of cryptocurrency, the realistic timeline is seen as the implementation in January 2028. It will take longer than expected, but the flow of incorporating it into the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act → operational confirmation → taxation has not changed.

The biggest point of separate taxation is not just that the tax rate will decrease, but that the environment will return to one where it is normal to make decisions on profit-taking and rebalancing. The current tax system has distorted the decision-making process for buying and selling.

Of course, it is not perfect. There is a high possibility that restrictions will remain on loss offsetting and loss carryforward, and DeFi and staking will likely be treated separately. The lower the tax rate, the more stringent the management of history and cost will become.

For this reason, I see the time until 2028 as a period to organize exit and holding policies based on the next system. Rather than waiting, it is a phase of preparing.

Warren Buffett states, "The natural course of government is to decrease the value of currency over time."
Regardless of the system in place, it is not easy to go against this flow.

As time goes by, the purchasing power of currency gradually diminishes. The dollar is no exception, and this is not just a story specific to certain countries; it is a global structure.

When viewing assets in another unit based on this premise, the perspective changes significantly. When considering housing prices in terms of Bitcoin, in 2015 it was about 688 BTC per house, in 2020 it was about 12 BTC, and now it is around 4.9 BTC.

In other words, when using Bitcoin as a benchmark, one can see that housing has been getting cheaper in the long term.

This is why thinking about "what assets can preserve value" has become more important than before. Instead of focusing on short-term price movements, observe long-term trends.
Just having that perspective should change the view significantly.

In Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture, a case where a teacher in their 40s was defrauded of approximately 180 million yen worth of cryptocurrency by a person claiming to be a police officer or prosecutor.
They were informed that 'their account is under investigation' and were instructed to open an account and make a transfer.

When observing this type of fraud, it tends to converge on the same points.
① The moment they are placed on the 'suspected side' rather than as a victim.
② Conversations progress only via phone or video call.
③ They are asked for action (opening an account, transferring money) before discussing the content.
④ There is time pressure with statements like 'right now' and 'if you don't cooperate, it will be unfavorable.'
⑤ At some point, moving assets becomes a prerequisite.

There is no rationality for the police or prosecutors to request individuals to transfer assets.
Once that line is crossed, the conversation is closer to guidance rather than investigation.

It is not so much about the presence or absence of knowledge, but when one is simultaneously deprived of their position and time, judgment tends to go awry.
Therefore, rather than asking 'Is this true?', I think it is more realistic to ask 'Is this flow natural?'

The Bank of Japan is increasingly likely to raise interest rates.
While this may seem like a domestic issue in Japan, it is not unrelated to global markets, especially risk assets like BTC.

For many years, the low-interest yen has been used as "the cheapest money in the world," supporting investments in stocks and cryptocurrencies. As this premise begins to change, the flow of funds will gradually shift as well.

What is important is not the interest rate number itself, but how many positions have been built based on the assumption of a "cheap yen." This movement may serve as a catalyst to reassess the structure of the market beyond just short-term price movements.

Forbes predicts that 2026 will be an era where multiple technologies such as AI, blockchain, and robots overlap.🤖

In recent years, we have often heard about blockchain, but it is more a mechanism that changes "how we record and trust" rather than a new way to make money.🧩

The point is simple.
Who holds the records?
Until now, a single administrator, such as banks or companies, managed the records.🏦
In blockchain, multiple people hold the same record individually.
Therefore, it is meaningless to rewrite only part of it.
If it differs from others, it can be recognized immediately.✍️

The role of the FRB (Federal Reserve Board) is simple.
Maximizing employment and ensuring price stability, these two must be maintained simultaneously.

If employment is too strong, inflation is likely to occur,
and if inflation is too weak, the economy cools and employment worsens.
The FRB is always monitoring this balance.

The two main tools used for adjustment are:
① Interest rates: Adjusting the momentum of consumption and investment = the speed of the economy
② Money supply: Adjusting the financial environment itself through QE and QT

Although policy may seem complex,
it is fundamentally centered around this structure.

There is a trading strategy with a win rate of 90%. Perhaps it will be quite accurate.

When you are in the bathroom. When you are eating. While shopping. Right before you go to sleep or just after you wake up.
In such casual moments, when you accidentally open the exchange.

"This price feels good, doesn't it?" "It seems ready to break out soon" "If I don't buy now, I might get left behind"

Thinking like that, when your fingers can't stop anymore.
Just slide those fingers a little down and press "Sell."

It's not just economic indicators that move the FOMC.
Doves, hawks, and centrists——
Understanding these three "dynamics" will clarify market reactions significantly.
In this illustration, I've summarized what each group prioritizes in various situations so that it's easy to understand at a glance.
The direction of the market changes greatly depending on "who holds the reins."

When I was learning painting, my teacher said, 'The best people have the best timing for stopping.'
Even now, while trading, I really think the same thing.
It's not about buying; it's about where to sell or where to cut that makes a person strong.

【The Core of the Rebound｜Vegas Edition】

After the price moves significantly away from the moving average line, it first returns to around Vegas.
When a "long wick" appears here, it becomes easier for a rebound to occur.

The reason for this is that the orders that have diverged are consumed, and there are many traders who base their strategies on Vegas. Whether it’s an upward or downward movement, this "initial return" is an easy target point.

However, since rebounds can occur deeply, a smaller position size + pre-set stop-loss is essential.

#BTC #ETH #candlestick_patterns

【Breaking News】Nomura revises FOMC outlook to 'rate cut'
Nomura predicts a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting.
The background includes dovish comments from Williams and Daly.
However, four members oppose the outlook for a rate cut.
On the other hand, Director Milan may support a 50bps rate cut.

Source: Reuters

The world in 2026 will not be about the "evolution of AI," but rather the "fusion" of AI × Robots × Blockchain taking center stage.

Forbes has indicated that technology will connect in one line, and the forms of our work, lives, and businesses will quietly but surely undergo 14 changes.

The foundation of trust in AI, agent economy, specialized robots, privacy regulations, the infrastructure of Web3, and the future where avatars become the "face" of companies——.

2026 will be the year when technology overlaps and the world is redesigned.
I have summarized it in an illustration, so please take a look if you are interested.

#Aİ #ロボット #ブロックチェーン

In the midst of a trend's "consolidation," it becomes easier for a significant movement to occur just once.
This movement is the moment when large players aim for stops.

If buying is skewed sideways, the stops for long positions are mostly on the lower side of the range. It is common to see a quick move to take these out before returning to the original direction.
The key point is the change in OI at the moment of a sharp drop (or rise).

If OI suddenly decreases, it's a sign that stops have been collectively taken out.
Whether in an uptrend or downtrend, this "movement" occurs with the same structure.
A typical move is to break out of the range and run swiftly to the recent high (or low).

#ストップ狩り #BTC #ETH

【The Essence of Ascending and Descending Triangles. What are the 'Precedents' of a Breaking Market?】
An ascending triangle is a shape where the lows gradually rise while the highs are capped. Because buying pressure continues to build, it is a very high-accuracy pattern that tends to break upwards easily.

However, because it is too well-known, right after it breaks, it can easily pull back deeply, so in the short term, it is essential to capture the 'initial wave of movement.'

A descending triangle is the exact opposite, where the highs gradually decline while the lows are supported. It tends to break down easily while being dominated by selling pressure, and it is also likely to extend after breaking down.

In both cases, the break after building pressure over a long time frame is the most reliable.

#BTC #ETH #TechnicalAnalysis

The market where you could "make a fortune in an instant" like in the past will not return.

That's why, now is the time to
・Determine what you can do
・Determine what you cannot do
is important.

Today's illustration summarizes that.

#BTC #ETH #仮想通貨市場