财经山石哥

In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a four-year high. The October employment figures were revised down by 105,000, mainly due to the Trump administration's "deferred resignation" plan, which resulted in over 150,000 federal employees being removed from the payroll.

· Market expectations: After the data was released, traders still bet on two interest rate cuts in 2026.
· Data quality: Due to the previous government shutdown, the October and November data may be distorted, reducing its reference value.
· Policy focus: The Federal Reserve may pay more attention to the December non-farm report, set to be released in early January 2026, as the basis for the next decision.

Major cryptocurrencies stabilized after the data was released, with Bitcoin rebounding to around $87,000. However, some analysts warn that the market environment remains fragile, and without positive catalysts, Bitcoin may dip below $80,000 in the short term. #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Yuhong's madness is said to be directly related to huge losses in cryptocurrency investments. This industry is highly risky, like the cliffs near Mauritius: terrifying to watch from the sidelines, panic-inducing once involved. For example, one investor once held 200 million Thai Baht in altcoins, suffering nearly half in losses. After being advised to sell the altcoins, increase their Bitcoin holdings, and keep liquid funds, they eventually turned a profit, earning 30 million dollars. This highlights that those who do not understand the operators might luck into profits, but those who are knowledgeable may not necessarily earn more, as the market fluctuates wildly, with luck and strategy coexisting. Yuhong's losses may stem from misjudging the market, over-investing in altcoins, or improper use of leverage, leading to enormous losses. Investing in the cryptocurrency world requires extreme caution, avoiding blind pursuits of high profits, and focusing on risk control is the path to survival. #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #

💥 黑色星期一席卷加密市场，比特币跌破85000美元，以太坊失守3000美元关口。24小时内超11万人爆仓，约29亿美元市值蒸发——这可能只是调整序幕。

真正的压力来自日本央行：本周会议加息至0.75%的概率已升至98%。三十年一遇的货币紧缩，正触发大规模的“日元套利交易平仓”。以往机构借入接近零息的日元，兑换美元后涌入比特币等资产赚取利差；如今借贷成本急剧上升，全球资本被迫抛售资产、换回日元偿还债务，加密货币首当其冲成为流动性提款机。

📉 本次暴跌背后存在多重诱因：
1️⃣ 美联储降息预期降温，鲍威尔表态谨慎，市场流动性预期收紧；
2️⃣ 渣打银行下调比特币目标价，巨鲸购买力出现触顶迹象；
⚠️ 风险或许尚未完全释放。急于抄底者，可能接下的是尚未落定的“飞刀”。

🔥 关键提醒：
保持冷静，优先持有现货。等待市场恐慌情绪充分释放，等待更明确的企稳信号。市场永远不缺机会，但只有留存实力，才能捕捉下一轮行情。

对于 $ASTER 解锁这样的市场事件，你认为当前是危机还是机遇？欢迎留言讨论。
#巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析

据吴说报道，资管巨头景顺（Invesco）与 Galaxy Asset Management 合作推出的质押型 Solana 交易所交易产品 Invesco Galaxy Solana ETP（QSOL）已于本周一（12 月 15 日）在芝加哥期权交易所（Cboe BZX）正式上市交易。

· 产品名称：Invesco Galaxy Solana ETP
· 交易代码：QSOL
· 上市时间：2025年12月15日
· 上市地点：Cboe BZX 交易所
· 管理费率：0.25%
· 初始持仓：约1.75万枚SOL
· 资产托管：Coinbase Custody Trust Company
· 定价参考：Lukka Prime Solana 参考汇率

该产品旨在为投资者提供受监管的SOL现货投资敞口，并通过Galaxy Digital进行质押以获得奖励，这些奖励将计入ETP的收入。QSOL是景顺与Galaxy合作推出的数字资产ETP系列中的最新产品，该系列还包括比特币ETP（BTCO）和以太坊ETP（QETH）。#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs

From 3 times of liquidation to stable profits, I spent 8 years summarizing 4 iron rules for survival in the crypto market:

1. Beware of the lure trap. The main players often use "box false breakout" and "late session sneak attack" to attract retail investors to take over. A surge in the morning with a drop in volume in the afternoon, a rise with a decrease in volume followed by a drop in volume, and frequent positive news at high positions; if any two of these occur, one should reduce their position.

2. High-level sideways trading means risk. After a significant asset rise, high-level consolidation, especially when the volume does not increase, is often a signal for main players to offload. If stagnation exceeds 10 days, one should consider reducing their position; if there are many positives but the price does not rise, then one should liquidate.

3. Volume precedes price. The true bottom is observed by volume, not price. When the trading volume shrinks to about 0.3 times the previous high volume and continuous mild increasing bullish candles appear, it is a relatively safe time to bottom-fish.

4. Strict capital management. Execute the "343 position rule": establish a position of 30%, increase to 70% when the trend is clear, and always keep 30% in cash. Control single losses within 2% of total capital, and resolutely avoid leverage.

Discipline and awareness reward in the crypto market. Survive, and you will have won against most people. #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Breaking News | December 16th, Tuesday

1. The UK Treasury plans to formulate new regulations for the cryptocurrency market.
2. The Brazilian Federal Police is cracking down on money laundering activities involving crypto assets, seizing and freezing assets worth approximately 685 million reais.
3. Hong Kong's Digital City launches a metaverse virtual real estate and Web3 business ecosystem closed loop, with XooRWA assisting SMEs in financing.
4. Google open-sources the deep research tool Gemini Deep Research, with performance comparable to GPT-4o at only one-tenth the cost.
5. Time Magazine selects "Creators of AI" as the 2025 Person of the Year, with the cover featuring 8 AI leaders including Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, and Musk. #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Friends who want to learn and participate should know that there are gains and losses in cryptocurrency investment. In this risk-filled market, only by continuously improving oneself can one survive through the fluctuations and ultimately turn the situation around. What truly helps you grow is often those experiences you fear the most. There is no need to be anxious about every loss, nor should you feel complacent about temporary gains. Remember, today is the youngest day you will ever be, and your future self will definitely become stronger. Wishing everyone: may your career rise step by step, and may life go smoothly in every aspect! #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

· The U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) did not list cryptocurrencies as a key risk item in its latest annual report
· The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued clear operational guidelines for cryptocurrency asset custody businesses
· The UK Treasury is working on drafting a new regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market
· The Polish cabinet has approved a draft law regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, pending presidential signature to take effect
· El Salvador's total holdings of Bitcoin have exceeded 7,500 coins
· Michael Saylor has updated the Bitcoin tracking dynamic again, with speculation that he may further acquire BTC#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #

You might think the bull market starts in 2025, but it could actually kick off earlier; you might believe the bull is here, but it might pull back and consolidate. The market always acts ahead of consensus, hitting the brakes during euphoria, shaking off the majority time and again.

The key is not to guess the timing, but to watch for signals: easing policies, leading stocks breaking previous highs, movements of on-chain whales. Capture the ambush before the launch and the sprint during the frenzy, and during the repeated fluctuations of the 'coma period', try to just watch the show without exhausting your patience.

Maintain a flexible position and keep enough ammunition. When the bull comes, you must be present; when the bull is stuck, there's no need to force it. Missing out is not scary, what's scary is being tripped up repeatedly by the same old tricks. In this round, make sure to be half a step ahead, rather than getting left behind for the third time. #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

BCH current price 578.6, daily line shows a peak, trend turns bearish. It is recommended to attempt a 3x short position, using low leverage to strictly prevent spike risks. The price is expected to fall back, and the next five months may be the main theme for short selling. Hold patiently, the opportunity is promising. #ETH走势分析 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

(Note: The market has risks, and no strategy can guarantee profits, please make decisions cautiously.)

Macroeconomic Impact: The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Takes Effect, Market Response is Tepid

This week, the Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of the year, but since it had already been priced in by the market, and there are clear internal disagreements about the future policy path, the market showed a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trend, failing to provide a boost to cryptocurrencies. Currently, market focus has shifted to the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19, with concerns that it may raise interest rates and trigger a closure of yen carry trades, leading to a tightening of global liquidity and resulting in volatility pressure on assets like Bitcoin.

#BitcoinSuperTopic##Finance#加密市场反弹

The current ETH market continues to consolidate, and weekend trading is relatively flat. Well-known bull Huang Licheng has once again faced liquidation, attracting attention. Personally, I have chosen to liquidate 80% of my funds, leaving only 20% for cautious operations.

Recently, the market has repeatedly shown signs of manipulation, with obvious signs of control, and the violent fluctuations also indicate irrational volatility. Currently, it is not an ideal time for spot dollar-cost averaging; gradual positioning can be considered for next year. It should be noted that if the direction of the spot is wrong, it will also depreciate, and the recent market often completes movements quickly within an hour, showing a pulsing trend.

In terms of operations, one should remain patient and wait for more favorable entry positions—good positions are the foundation of profit, while poor positions can easily lead to passive holding of positions. As long as one controls their hands, avoids opening positions recklessly, strictly implements stop-losses, and adheres to familiar trading patterns, significant losses can usually be avoided.

The last bear market witnessed the collapse of institutions such as Three Arrows Capital and FTX; who will face the test in this cycle remains to be seen.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

A person's wealth level depends 99% on the historical process they are in, rather than on individual effort. Only by acting in accordance with the tides of history can effort truly translate into results.
In other words, only by making the right moves amidst significant trends and daring to accumulate can one achieve breakthroughs; without timely opportunities, even the greatest efforts often result in stagnation.
Therefore, what matters is not just action, but taking action at the right historical moment. Be patient, wait for and seize the next big trend. #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #ETH走势分析 #美联储降息

Ethereum's daily chart has completed three rounds of rebounds and pullbacks, currently at a key support level, but the rebound strength is relatively weak. Future trend assessment: high probability of replicating the historical 'false breakdown' before starting a new round of upward movement; low probability of effectively breaking the support and returning to a downward trend, or directly stabilizing at 3200 points for a rebound. In terms of operations, if going long near 3200, it is recommended to pair with a Bitcoin short position to hedge risks. #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹

Blood and tears story! I was misled by the "crypto master" Old Tony and lost 3.6 million, leading to my family's ruin. He disguised himself as a "trading genius" in overseas communities, promising that the funds would be personally managed by him, guaranteeing capital protection with annual returns as high as 80%. Tempted by the high returns, I invested my entire fortune.

As a result, the so-called investment was all a scam: his random trading guidance led to heavy losses, and he refused to allow withdrawals under the pretext of "locking in value." In less than three months, he blocked me and disappeared, leaving me with nothing.

The central bank and 13 other departments have long made it clear that virtual currency trading speculation is illegal financial activity, and all promises of "capital protection and high returns" are scams. I have gathered all the evidence and will firmly report this, vowing to bring the fraudster to justice. I hope all investors take me as a warning and not believe the lies of easy gains! #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察

The core information from the latest Federal Reserve meeting is as follows:

1. Interest Rate Decision: A decision was announced to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate range down to 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third rate cut of the year, but there was a split in the internal vote (9:3).
2. Conservative Future Path: According to the latest dot plot, officials' median prediction for the interest rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%. This suggests that the mainstream expectation is only one rate cut in 2026, with a pace slower than some market expectations.
3. Restart of Treasury Purchases: Starting from December 12, approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities will be purchased. The Federal Reserve explicitly emphasizes that this move is not quantitative easing, but a technical operation to ease overnight market liquidity tightening.
4. Market Reaction: Following the resolution, U.S. stocks rose. However, due to the potential slowing of future rate cuts and the nature of bond purchases being short-term liquidity management, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen. #美联储降息 #加密市场观察

The "dovish-hawkish" pattern you observed is accurate. The current market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December, so the marginal impact of Powell's speech has indeed weakened.

This weakening primarily stems from two levels: first, the unprecedented split between the "dovish council" and the "hawkish regional Fed" has diluted the market's attention to a single signal from the chairman; second, with the chairman's succession approaching in 2026, the market has begun to bundle future policy paths with the tendencies of popular successors (such as Harker).

Therefore, the market's focus has shifted from a single rate cut to more long-term signals: the "dot plot" from this decision predicting the number of rate cuts in 2026, and how Powell balances current actions with policy independence under future political pressure. #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察