Steven_Research
Long-term investor
Founder SR INVEST, holder $BNB
Top 14 independent Researcher at @Binance The Blockchain 100 | 2025
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Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
The market is pretty quiet, and most of us aren't too focused on macro anymore, right?
*Tuesday, 4/28 BoJ
- (Bank of Japan): Interest rate decision announcement. This is a key event that directly impacts the Yen and the entire Asian market.
- US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board): The US consumer confidence index will be released. This is an important measure of economic health and the mindset of American consumers.
*Wednesday, 4/29
- FOMC (US Fed): Interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET (which is 1:00 AM on 4/30 Vietnam time). The market will be focused on analyzing Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about potential rate cuts in the near future.
- BoC (Bank of Canada): Interest rate decision along with the monetary policy report.
*We can see that the actual trend (and forecasts from major banks) from last year until now will mostly be to maintain or slightly lower interest rates, not too many surprises, and CME forecasts nearly 100% to keep it steady.
- But looking further out, we will witness a new construction phase, right folks? During this time, let's focus on accumulating knowledge, skills, resources, and perseverance, alright?
*Tuesday, 4/28 BoJ
- (Bank of Japan): Interest rate decision announcement. This is a key event that directly impacts the Yen and the entire Asian market.
- US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board): The US consumer confidence index will be released. This is an important measure of economic health and the mindset of American consumers.
*Wednesday, 4/29
- FOMC (US Fed): Interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET (which is 1:00 AM on 4/30 Vietnam time). The market will be focused on analyzing Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about potential rate cuts in the near future.
- BoC (Bank of Canada): Interest rate decision along with the monetary policy report.
*We can see that the actual trend (and forecasts from major banks) from last year until now will mostly be to maintain or slightly lower interest rates, not too many surprises, and CME forecasts nearly 100% to keep it steady.
- But looking further out, we will witness a new construction phase, right folks? During this time, let's focus on accumulating knowledge, skills, resources, and perseverance, alright?
IT SEEMS AAVE HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY SAVED
Aave is dealing with bad debt of around $200 million (equivalent to ~75k–100k $ETH) to cover the shortfall of rsETH after the exploit (after accounting for frozen ETH + recoveries from Aave/Compound), as I have analyzed in previous posts.
*As of now, approximately $237 million has been raised (details in the image):
- Aave DAO: 25,000 ETH (~$58 million) from treasury (fixed commitment).
- Stani Kulechov (founder of Aave): 5,000 ETH personally.
- Mantle: 30,000 ETH (in the form of a loan facility with interest).
- Lido: up to 2,500 stETH (~$5.7 million).
- KelpDAO contributed 2,000 ETH (~$4.66 million) from treasury.
- Arbitrum DAO (30.76k ETH frozen ~ $71 million) froze the ETH from the hacker.
- EtherFi 5,000 ETH (~$11.65 million)
- Golem Foundation 1,000 ETH
- And over 101,000 small contributors from the community.
=> Most of the large amounts are still awaiting governance vote (Arbitrum, Aave, Mantle, Lido, Etherfi). Only when the vote passes and the transfers are completed will it be considered “real money.” However, tallying up the pledges like this allows the market to see clearly that “DeFi United” is already over-covered.
=> Although it's still at the consensus stage, it helps Aave avoid a domino effect, bad debt is under control, outflows have stopped, and market confidence is recovering.
=> The amount of TVL outflows from Aave has temporarily halted but has not yet returned; TVL remains around 14B$ .
- What are your thoughts? Has this issue been resolved?
Aave is dealing with bad debt of around $200 million (equivalent to ~75k–100k $ETH) to cover the shortfall of rsETH after the exploit (after accounting for frozen ETH + recoveries from Aave/Compound), as I have analyzed in previous posts.
*As of now, approximately $237 million has been raised (details in the image):
- Aave DAO: 25,000 ETH (~$58 million) from treasury (fixed commitment).
- Stani Kulechov (founder of Aave): 5,000 ETH personally.
- Mantle: 30,000 ETH (in the form of a loan facility with interest).
- Lido: up to 2,500 stETH (~$5.7 million).
- KelpDAO contributed 2,000 ETH (~$4.66 million) from treasury.
- Arbitrum DAO (30.76k ETH frozen ~ $71 million) froze the ETH from the hacker.
- EtherFi 5,000 ETH (~$11.65 million)
- Golem Foundation 1,000 ETH
- And over 101,000 small contributors from the community.
=> Most of the large amounts are still awaiting governance vote (Arbitrum, Aave, Mantle, Lido, Etherfi). Only when the vote passes and the transfers are completed will it be considered “real money.” However, tallying up the pledges like this allows the market to see clearly that “DeFi United” is already over-covered.
=> Although it's still at the consensus stage, it helps Aave avoid a domino effect, bad debt is under control, outflows have stopped, and market confidence is recovering.
=> The amount of TVL outflows from Aave has temporarily halted but has not yet returned; TVL remains around 14B$ .
- What are your thoughts? Has this issue been resolved?
The total deposit volume on Aave has now net flowed out $16.2 billion.
It has dropped to $29.6 billion from the peak of $45.8 billion following the rsETH incident.
Spark has partially benefited from the outflow of capital from Aave (after Justin Sun withdrew $ETH from Aave and deposited into Spark). The TVL before the event was $1.9 billion and is currently at $3.6 billion, netting in nearly $1.7 billion.
Token $SPK has also seen impressive growth, and this morning's token listing rally has pushed SPK close to a 3x from the bottom in 2 weeks.
It has dropped to $29.6 billion from the peak of $45.8 billion following the rsETH incident.
Spark has partially benefited from the outflow of capital from Aave (after Justin Sun withdrew $ETH from Aave and deposited into Spark). The TVL before the event was $1.9 billion and is currently at $3.6 billion, netting in nearly $1.7 billion.
Token $SPK has also seen impressive growth, and this morning's token listing rally has pushed SPK close to a 3x from the bottom in 2 weeks.
STRATEGY AND BITMINE HAVE TURNED PROFIT AGAIN!
While we are waiting for the bottom, the two biggest players hodl $BTC and $ETH have been diligently DCA-ing and have now made a profit.
- Currently, Strategy hodl 815.061 $BTC was bought for ~61.56 billion USD at an average price of ~75,527 USD per bitcoin (Market price is about $76K and they are currently in the black).
- Along with BitMNR hodl 4,976,485 ETH at an average price of 2,301 USD for each ETH (The current market price is about $2,321 and they have returned to profitability).
*Just a few months ago, they had to bear a huge unrealized loss:
- With Strategy, by the end of Q4 2025, they faced an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion USD (the largest), and in Q1 2026, they still had an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion USD.
- With Bitmine, at the beginning of February 2026, they experienced an unrealized loss of ~$8 billion USD (the highest in history), after which this loss gradually decreased but still remained around a negative of over $6 billion USD that month.
=> Both of these entities have "returned to shore" and are currently showing clear profits thanks to the recovery in crypto prices + additional purchases to lower cost basis.
=> Strategy is holding about ~4.07% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin and Bitmine is holding about 4.123% of the current total supply of Ethereum (their target is 5%, which they may soon achieve).
=> Currently, they are just about to be in the black, do you think they will continue to make profits in the coming time or will they reverse back into the negative?
While we are waiting for the bottom, the two biggest players hodl $BTC and $ETH have been diligently DCA-ing and have now made a profit.
- Currently, Strategy hodl 815.061 $BTC was bought for ~61.56 billion USD at an average price of ~75,527 USD per bitcoin (Market price is about $76K and they are currently in the black).
- Along with BitMNR hodl 4,976,485 ETH at an average price of 2,301 USD for each ETH (The current market price is about $2,321 and they have returned to profitability).
*Just a few months ago, they had to bear a huge unrealized loss:
- With Strategy, by the end of Q4 2025, they faced an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion USD (the largest), and in Q1 2026, they still had an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion USD.
- With Bitmine, at the beginning of February 2026, they experienced an unrealized loss of ~$8 billion USD (the highest in history), after which this loss gradually decreased but still remained around a negative of over $6 billion USD that month.
=> Both of these entities have "returned to shore" and are currently showing clear profits thanks to the recovery in crypto prices + additional purchases to lower cost basis.
=> Strategy is holding about ~4.07% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin and Bitmine is holding about 4.123% of the current total supply of Ethereum (their target is 5%, which they may soon achieve).
=> Currently, they are just about to be in the black, do you think they will continue to make profits in the coming time or will they reverse back into the negative?
The market capitalization of Stablecoins reached an ATH of 320 billion dollars, +146% in 2 years
- 2024: DeFi brings profits, synthetic usd appears
- November 2024: Trump wins, capital flows flood for yield returns
- 2025-26: GENIUS Act, OCC bank charter, cash flow from institutions
Different catalysts, but flowing in the same direction.
- 2024: DeFi brings profits, synthetic usd appears
- November 2024: Trump wins, capital flows flood for yield returns
- 2025-26: GENIUS Act, OCC bank charter, cash flow from institutions
Different catalysts, but flowing in the same direction.
What happened today?
- $ORDI increased over 160% in 24h
- $BASED increased 120%
- $SIREN also doubled
Additionally, the most talked-about story is $ASTEROID - the astronaut dog (created by a little girl who had pediatric cancer and passed away about 3 months ago) who painted it herself. The girl was inspired by Elon Musk's dog, Floki.
- Asteroid was chosen as the “zero-gravity indicator” (a floating toy to indicate that the ship has entered a state of zero gravity) for SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission in 2024.
- It actually flew up to the sky, and Little Liv even sold replicas to donate to St. Jude Hospital (which treats pediatric cancer). This story is very touching and highly humanitarian.
- There was a user on X who suggested: “Use $ASTEROID as the official mascot for the Polaris Dawn mission!” => elonmusk replied with a short sentence: “Will answer shortly.”
- After Elon Musk's comment, the tokens named ASTEROID skyrocketed hundreds of times after this news, with market cap increasing from a few hundred k to tens of millions of dollars. There are currently two versions on SOL and ETH.
=> Some traders only spent a small amount of about 11 SOL (around 960 USD) buying through 3 wallets, and after 2 hours it became 337K USD, which is x351 times.
=> Overall: This is a pure meme coin, with no utility, entirely based on hype and sentiment. Moreover, there are many different versions.
=> Warning: Meme coins like this are very high risk, easily rug or dump 80-90% within a few hours. DYOR, NFA
- $ORDI increased over 160% in 24h
- $BASED increased 120%
- $SIREN also doubled
Additionally, the most talked-about story is $ASTEROID - the astronaut dog (created by a little girl who had pediatric cancer and passed away about 3 months ago) who painted it herself. The girl was inspired by Elon Musk's dog, Floki.
- Asteroid was chosen as the “zero-gravity indicator” (a floating toy to indicate that the ship has entered a state of zero gravity) for SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission in 2024.
- It actually flew up to the sky, and Little Liv even sold replicas to donate to St. Jude Hospital (which treats pediatric cancer). This story is very touching and highly humanitarian.
- There was a user on X who suggested: “Use $ASTEROID as the official mascot for the Polaris Dawn mission!” => elonmusk replied with a short sentence: “Will answer shortly.”
- After Elon Musk's comment, the tokens named ASTEROID skyrocketed hundreds of times after this news, with market cap increasing from a few hundred k to tens of millions of dollars. There are currently two versions on SOL and ETH.
=> Some traders only spent a small amount of about 11 SOL (around 960 USD) buying through 3 wallets, and after 2 hours it became 337K USD, which is x351 times.
=> Overall: This is a pure meme coin, with no utility, entirely based on hype and sentiment. Moreover, there are many different versions.
=> Warning: Meme coins like this are very high risk, easily rug or dump 80-90% within a few hours. DYOR, NFA
The "whales" have accumulated 270,000 $BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013.
Reserves on the exchange are at their lowest level since December 2017.
The supply to meet new demand is shrinking 🤔
Reserves on the exchange are at their lowest level since December 2017.
The supply to meet new demand is shrinking 🤔
The increase $BTC currently still lacks sustainability and is easily influenced by liquidity fluctuations or the
derivative cash flow. This upward trend is only truly certain when SPOT buying power stabilizes again.
The number of profitable sellers has been depleted, and liquidity on the chain has dropped to
its lowest level of the cycle. This is a typical characteristic of a bear market that is
transitioning to the final stage.
There is still a GAP from $72,000 to $82,000 that cannot be filled. Combined with technical analysis and
on-chain indicators, we can expect a recovery in this range.
However, in the medium term, there is a concern due to the concentration of a large supply at $84,000. A group
is ready to wait to sell when the price approaches their breakeven point.
derivative cash flow. This upward trend is only truly certain when SPOT buying power stabilizes again.
The number of profitable sellers has been depleted, and liquidity on the chain has dropped to
its lowest level of the cycle. This is a typical characteristic of a bear market that is
transitioning to the final stage.
There is still a GAP from $72,000 to $82,000 that cannot be filled. Combined with technical analysis and
on-chain indicators, we can expect a recovery in this range.
However, in the medium term, there is a concern due to the concentration of a large supply at $84,000. A group
is ready to wait to sell when the price approaches their breakeven point.
- $BTC return to test the price range of 65k when BTC reaches the first resistance level of 76k
- Forming a small frame structure of lower highs and lower lows creates a short-term downtrend
🔍
Resistance
- The key level of the current downtrend in the D frame is the 72k range
Support
- 65k-66k is still a strong support zone at this time
- The short-term trend will recover. BTC breaking 72k will return to the 76k mark, and the next expectation will be 86k
- If the market is too bad and unstable due to political concerns, BTC will continue to break 60k and will return to the 50k - 52k mark
- Forming a small frame structure of lower highs and lower lows creates a short-term downtrend
🔍
Resistance
- The key level of the current downtrend in the D frame is the 72k range
Support
- 65k-66k is still a strong support zone at this time
- The short-term trend will recover. BTC breaking 72k will return to the 76k mark, and the next expectation will be 86k
- If the market is too bad and unstable due to political concerns, BTC will continue to break 60k and will return to the 50k - 52k mark
The hyperbridge on Polkadot was hacked, token $DOT on Ethereum dropped tens of thousands of times close to 0
- The hacker was well-prepared, creating false evidence to deceive the bridge on the ETH network and minting over 1 billion DOT tokens
- After that, over 1 billion of those tokens were dumped into a pool on the Ethereum chain in one transaction, bringing in $273,000 (about 208 $ETH )
- The price of DOT tokens on ETH dropped more than 10 thousand times, close to 0 and could not recover
- Polkadot stated that this hack only affected DOT tokens on ETH, and the entire native chain and other protocols were not affected
- The hacker was well-prepared, creating false evidence to deceive the bridge on the ETH network and minting over 1 billion DOT tokens
- After that, over 1 billion of those tokens were dumped into a pool on the Ethereum chain in one transaction, bringing in $273,000 (about 208 $ETH )
- The price of DOT tokens on ETH dropped more than 10 thousand times, close to 0 and could not recover
- Polkadot stated that this hack only affected DOT tokens on ETH, and the entire native chain and other protocols were not affected
THE PRE-IPO FUNCTION OF BINANCE WALLET
This is a new feature of crypto exchanges entering the private equity market, allowing ordinary users to buy "early" shares of large unlisted companies. What do you need to know about this feature?
Launched on 04/10/2026, it allows retail users to access pre-IPO assets of major tech unicorns (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril...) through tokenization on the blockchain (primarily Solana).
- Current assets (according to the Pre-IPO interface in the app):
$SpaceX
$OpenAI
$Anthropic
$Anduril
$XAI
=> These stocks are pre-IPO, meaning they have not been officially listed yet, but are traded in the form of early valuation.
- Users can access Binance Wallet, select the Pre-IPO tag to buy/sell immediately without any conditions.
*Operation mechanism:
- PreStocks holds real shares of the aforementioned companies through an offshore SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) structure. Then they are tokenized on the Blockchain at a price ratio of 1:1.
- But note that this is a token issued pegged to the corresponding price, when we buy it, it is not a real share, but just a token, okay folks?
=> Its effect will purely allow users to trade/benefit based on the valuation of these companies; we are not actual shareholders.
=> No voting rights, dividends, shareholder rights, and it does not appear in the company's books. This is a derivative in the form of tokenized economic interest (Reg S - exemption for investors outside of the US).
This is a new feature of crypto exchanges entering the private equity market, allowing ordinary users to buy "early" shares of large unlisted companies. What do you need to know about this feature?
Launched on 04/10/2026, it allows retail users to access pre-IPO assets of major tech unicorns (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril...) through tokenization on the blockchain (primarily Solana).
- Current assets (according to the Pre-IPO interface in the app):
$SpaceX
$OpenAI
$Anthropic
$Anduril
$XAI
=> These stocks are pre-IPO, meaning they have not been officially listed yet, but are traded in the form of early valuation.
- Users can access Binance Wallet, select the Pre-IPO tag to buy/sell immediately without any conditions.
*Operation mechanism:
- PreStocks holds real shares of the aforementioned companies through an offshore SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) structure. Then they are tokenized on the Blockchain at a price ratio of 1:1.
- But note that this is a token issued pegged to the corresponding price, when we buy it, it is not a real share, but just a token, okay folks?
=> Its effect will purely allow users to trade/benefit based on the valuation of these companies; we are not actual shareholders.
=> No voting rights, dividends, shareholder rights, and it does not appear in the company's books. This is a derivative in the form of tokenized economic interest (Reg S - exemption for investors outside of the US).
The smart money held is $AERO , increasing by 28.81% after 7 days. The whale balance increased by 67.98%. Meanwhile, the price remains at 0.33 USD.
A notable accumulator: Former smart trader [0xf20431] - bought $ AERO through the CoW Protocol for over 4 months, added back 18 hours ago, did not sell throughout the entire history.
A notable accumulator: Former smart trader [0xf20431] - bought $ AERO through the CoW Protocol for over 4 months, added back 18 hours ago, did not sell throughout the entire history.
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