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4.30 Market Dynamics Analysis: Warning on Deep Pullback Risks

During last night's trading session, traditional tech giants delivered a satisfactory earnings report, with Microsoft and Google's financial data shining brightly, and Intel's stock price also saw a significant surge. Currently, the entire financial market's chase for the AI concept has evolved into an extremely fervent state. However, in stark contrast to the hot atmosphere in the traditional tech sector, the crypto segment is experiencing a comprehensive downturn.

Focusing on BTC's specific price action, the recent upward bounce cycle has officially come to an end. Observing the one-hour candlestick chart, it's clear that the previous bullish ascending structure has completely collapsed, and the moving averages are transitioning from a bullish arrangement to a bearish-dominated downward formation.

Moreover, on the daily timeframe, BTC has now pulled back and touched the crucial EMA20 technical level. Moving forward, it's essential to remain vigilant; if the daily candlestick ultimately confirms a substantial breakdown below this support line, the market is expected to embark on a new downward trend. Please approach the market rationally and manage your risk appropriately.

The market watch report from April 27 indicates that we can expect a significant reversal in the bullish-bearish dynamics over the next month.

Looking back at recent price action, BTC has seen a four-week rally, and the price has steadily moved into the 80k to 86k resistance zone. On the market indicators front, the funding rate has rebounded from a previously deep negative range to a slightly negative level. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has emerged from extreme fear, successfully returning to a neutral state.

From the perspectives of the investor community, data from HYPE wallets shows a notable shift. Retail investors have shifted their positions from bearish to a slight bullish inclination, while the sentiment among large whale investors has changed from bullish to a more hesitant wait-and-see approach.

Overall, the current market sentiment has moved away from the extreme pessimistic bearish atmosphere and returned to neutral. In this environment, the market only needs one last surge to fully ignite retail participation, though this final sprint will also signal the complete end of this rally.

4.22 Market Analysis Firmly Repelling Bearish Forces

When many participants in the market begin to blindly follow trends, relying on their inherent experience to determine that the 78,000-point level is just a false breakout, we need to remain objective and calm. In fact, the overall bullish pattern of BTC has not undergone any substantial changes, and it has unknowingly basically recovered the previous decline space.

Looking ahead to the next trend, the next target for the market's impact will be above the 80,000 mark, and even touching 85,000 later is a completely logical expectation. The bearish forces currently in the market are bound to transform into fuel that accelerates price increases, providing strong momentum for the ascent. From an operational strategy perspective, when these bearish investors are forced to trigger stop-losses and exit the market, those specific price areas will also be the ideal positions for me to gradually reduce my long positions.

Exploring Market Trends on April 20: Is it a Reappearance of Past Trends or Does it Contain New Mysteries?

At this time point of April 20, the market's movements have sparked curiosity among everyone. Looking back at last week, BTC experienced a slight pullback after a wave of upward movement. This scene inevitably reminds one of the wave in January that reached 98000. The similarity between these two movements is striking; both occurred after successfully breaking through the consolidation area, consistently moving upwards to touch the weekly EMA20 indicator, and only then began to enter the pullback phase.

However, the development of financial markets often does not simply replicate the past. Recently, the price of BTC has already reached the threshold of 78000, which exactly meets my personal minimum expected value for this round of rebound. However, based on the current market performance, this upward trend does not seem to have reached a conclusion. To more objectively grasp the context of the market, I have set a clear reference standard: only when the daily candlestick genuinely and effectively breaks down below the EMA20 will I confirm that this rebound trend has truly declared an end.

Recently, an unexpected phenomenon has emerged in the market. Many friends are comparing two recent market trends, and quite a few people believe that the current level of 78000 points will replicate the trend of the previous 98000 stage, followed by a significant drop.

In fact, relying purely on past trajectories to predict the future is likely to lead bearish investors to face huge losses. It is foreseeable that the price of BTC will not plummet directly as they wish; instead, it will at least rise to the 80,000 mark, and there is even a chance to advance towards 85,000. This round of upward momentum is bound to continue until those holding a bearish view completely change their mindset, from bears to bulls, before it comes to an end.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced an extremely severe cliff-like crash. It is undeniable that contract trading itself carries a high degree of speculative nature, and participants should be mentally prepared for both profits and losses. However, this unusually rapid decline has strong characteristics of malicious intervention by main funds. Therefore, we sincerely suggest that Binance officials intervene in the investigation, carefully verify those fund accounts suspected of manipulating prices, to confirm whether they have any hidden interests associated with the project team. @cz_binance @heyibinance

April 17 Market Situation Comprehensive Analysis

In the cryptocurrency market on April 17, altcoins experienced a comprehensive market explosion, especially the MEME sector which showed extremely active trends. Specifically, projects including ORDI, siren, and based all doubled in price within just one day. This round of sharp price increase indicates that major funds are actively seizing the opportunity to lift the market.

Turning our attention to Bitcoin, we find that there is a certain divergence between market sentiment and price trends. Currently, the bearish sentiment among retail investors regarding BTC still predominates. This psychological expectation is reflected not only in the continuously negative funding rates but also intuitively in the imbalanced long-short ratio data of 0.76.

However, from a technical perspective, the market's performance remains very optimistic. On an hourly basis, Bitcoin's bullish trend continues to steadily persist. Observing yesterday's daily trend, the market recorded a long lower shadow and broke down through the lowest point of the past two days during trading. In technical analysis, this is quite a positive bullish signal. Based on the characteristics of the market mentioned above, we expect that the significant threshold of 76000 may be successfully breached by the bulls at any time.

Through three key charts, we provide an in-depth analysis of why bearish investors in the market may continue to be under pressure.

First, let's take a look at the latest trends in funding rates. Currently, the market's funding rates remain in negative territory. Meanwhile, the annualized lending rate for USDT on Binance has dropped to a very low floor price of 3%. The current state of almost no demand for lending reflects the investment sentiment of ordinary retail investors, which is at a rather low ebb.

Next, we examine the long-short ratio situation monitored by AI. When the BTC price strongly broke through the 76000 mark, the market's long-short ratio once plummeted to 0.65. In this extremely bearish market, many retail investors experienced a brutal market washout. Although the ratio has gradually recovered to 0.8, the overall market sentiment still shows signs leaning towards bearishness.

Finally, let's take a look at the data feedback from the Hyperliquid wallet. The market has shown a clear differentiation; smaller retail investors continue to insist on shorting, while large holders with substantial capital have already taken profit on some long positions, yet they still maintain an optimistic outlook on the overall market.

Many trading mentors in paid communities on the market are accustomed to using data tables every day to showcase their extremely high win rates and substantial profit points. Objectively speaking, this mostly belongs to a kind of theoretical self-appreciation. Once applied to real trading, these seemingly perfect account performances often struggle to withstand the test of the market.

In the entire trading system, finding the right entry point actually only accounts for 20% of the weight. The real keys that can determine the success or failure of a trade are the planning of funds and positions, risk prevention mechanisms, exit strategy arrangements, and a mature psychological state.

Specific practical operations involve many complex aspects, such as how to scientifically set stop-losses, when it is appropriate to take profits in batches, when to adjust to a breakeven state, and under what circumstances to start trailing stop-losses to maximize profits. At the same time, how to allocate long and short positions in different market cycles, how to define the rules for increasing and decreasing positions, and how to establish risk control standards for individual orders, overall positions, and the entire account. Completing these professional actions cannot rely solely on personal subjective intuition or a momentary impulse, but must depend on a vast amount of data statistics as a solid analytical foundation.

After experiencing the Taco market, the current U.S. stock market is providing investors with an excellent opportunity to recover funds. Recently, I have transferred my assets from other brokerage platforms to the currently popular BIT for U.S. stock trading. Speaking of BIT, its background is quite solid, as it was formerly a senior asset management institution in Asia called Matrixport. The platform not only has seven years of institutional service experience but was also created by the founder of Bitmain. It is worth mentioning that the platform has recently invested significant resources to upgrade its official website to a top-level domain https://t.co/6IKnIfjlQa.

For cryptocurrency investors, participating in the U.S. stock market usually faces three main obstacles. The first is that funds must be transferred in fiat currency; secondly, traditional brokers require binding to a physical bank account, making the whole process quite cumbersome; finally, if one chooses synthetic assets on-chain, they often can only buy illiquid fake stocks. In response to these pain points, BIT offers a very straightforward solution.

In terms of capital turnover, the platform has achieved seamless integration with stablecoins. Users can directly use U for deposit operations, and funds can arrive in seconds, allowing for quick placement of U.S. stock trading orders. In terms of trading channels, as a licensed institution, the platform has established direct connections with U.S. local brokers, making the trading process exceptionally smooth. At the same time, it complies with non-CRS regulations and fully supports users from mainland China in opening accounts. Most importantly, the stocks purchased here are genuine and authentic. The platform covers all market stocks and ETF products, allowing investors to truly enjoy complete shareholder rights, including participation in dividends and voting rights.

In addition, it is understood that the platform plans to launch an IPO subscription function in the future, and I am very much looking forward to this service being able to smoothly catch up with the related operations of SpaceX in June. In short, through this convenient channel, everyone can easily use funds from the cryptocurrency market to directly invest in and hold real U.S. stocks.

April 9 Market Observation: This round of rebound is just the beginning

Let’s first analyze the recent technical trends. According to the feedback from the daily chart, the market has entered a state of consolidation with reduced volume after experiencing a significant breakout. If we switch the observation period to the hourly level, we can clearly see that a positive bullish trend has already been established. All moving averages are maintaining a standard bullish arrangement, with the overall high and low price points steadily rising, and continuously crossing over the various high points formed during the previous downtrend. All these market characteristics are conveying a clear signal that the current upward rebound has just begun.

At the same time, there are some new external dynamics in the news. Even in the face of Iran's sudden decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again, there is no need to overly worry about the future market. This large-scale rebound, which has been brewing at the bottom for 2 months, will not easily come to a hasty end in the short term. One key market logic to remember is that external news never possesses the ability to reverse the core operational trend; it is often used during specific periods to accompany the development of existing trends.

3.31 Why I insist that BTC will rebound above 80,000
I know everyone is bearish; it's the easiest thing to be bearish in a bear market and bullish in a bull market, but recognizing secondary fluctuations is a difficult task
1. BTC was the first to enter the bear market and halved, it will rebound independently; recently, U.S. stocks have been hitting new lows every day, yet BTC remains above 60,000
2. BTC's weekly RSI is oversold; although it hasn't bottomed yet, a significant rebound is warranted
3. The oscillation has lasted for 2 months, April is the month of revelation

March 30 Market Observation: Touching the Lower Limit of the Fluctuation Range, Maintaining a Bullish Outlook

In the past nearly two months, the price movement of BTC has mainly fluctuated within the range of 65000 to 74000. Although there were once false breakouts above and below the range during this period, the price has quickly adjusted each time and returned to this normal fluctuation area. This market behavior clearly indicates that the overall market in the past two months has not formed a clear unilateral trend, but is in a consolidation and accumulation phase, aiming to lay the foundation for the next wave of new trends.

Observing the latest trends, the price has once again fallen back and is testing the lower boundary of this fluctuation range. In the absence of substantial and effective breaks below the support level, it is evidently not suitable to adopt a pessimistic bearish strategy at this stage. Overall, the price relying on the current lower support is still very likely to rise again towards the upper boundary of the range.

Discussion on the relationship between the 3.28 BTC bear market bottom and the RSI indicator

Looking at historical trends, in all bear market phases that BTC has experienced, there have been occurrences where the weekly RSI value has dropped below 30, which clearly reflects that the market is in a significant state of overselling. Reviewing the trends of 2015 and 2018, when the weekly RSI fell below 30, it often corresponded precisely to the final bottom of the bear market. By 2022, this indicator fell below 30 again, with the coin price reaching the level of 17000. Although it did not completely touch the absolute lowest point, it was already very close to the bottom area.

From a long-term evolution perspective, BTC has shown a pattern where each bear market gradually strengthens while the bull market relatively weakens. This cyclical evolution has directly led to an increase in the number of occurrences where the RSI indicator falls below 30, and the time spent at this low level is also continuously extending. Considering all the dimensions mentioned above, regarding the current BTC at the 60000 level, my personal judgment is that it has not truly reached the bear market bottom. However, it is evident that the subsequent rebound space will definitely exceed this.

March 27 Market Dynamics Observation: Global Markets Continue Downward Trend

Hello everyone. Yesterday, the global stock markets continued to maintain a persistent downward trend. Looking back, I issued a risk warning on March 4th that the U.S. stock market was about to shift from bull to bear, and then on March 20th, I reminded everyone that the bull market in A-shares had come to an end. Now, a few weeks have passed, and major stock markets have indeed experienced a fierce correction as expected.

However, it is worth noting that in the recent trading cycles, BTC and the NQ100 index have shown signs of rebound and warming, with BTC especially demonstrating resilience and strength in its recent overall performance.

From the current market perspective, BTC is undergoing low-volatility sideways consolidation around the EMA20 moving average. This state of accumulation indicates that it is patiently waiting for the complete end of the first phase of the stock market's downward trend. Based on the assessment of various data, it is expected that within the next two weeks, the market will officially initiate a significant rebound.

March 26 Market Observation: A significant market fluctuation is quietly brewing.

For friends who have been continuously paying attention to the crypto market, the recent market situation has already released relatively clear signals. Observing the current trend, it can be found that the short-term moving averages of BTC and ETH are not only flattening but are also gradually approaching the mid-term moving averages. Meanwhile, the prices of these two core assets are steadily maintaining above the EMA20 indicator, showing characteristics of continuously shrinking trading volume and the formation of small candlesticks. From a professional perspective, these signs fully indicate that the market is making the final energy accumulation for the next round of concentrated explosion.

Based on the current rhythm, the new round of market activity is expected to officially start within the next two weeks. Once this trend is established and unfolds, we can ultimately expect to witness significant market fluctuations of up to 10% to 20%. In terms of specific price expectations, the upward target for BTC is likely to reach the range of 80,000 to 85,000, while the expected target for ETH is between 2,600 and 3,000. It is recommended that everyone prepare accordingly in advance to rationally welcome the upcoming market changes.

Embracing 3.25: A significant market rebound is on the verge of unfolding

After experiencing a month and a half of fluctuations and consolidation, we can observe that the bottom support for BTC is steadily rising. Currently, the short-term moving averages are displaying a flat operational trend and are gradually converging towards the mid-term moving averages. Based on the current trend characteristics, it is expected that within one to two weeks, the market will initiate a substantial upward trend. The anticipated target for this rebound is expected to break through the 80,000 mark, and if the overall momentum is stronger, it may even reach the high of 85,000.

On the other hand, although ETH has been relatively quiet over the past six months, from the perspective of trading pair trends, ETH/BTC has undergone a thorough market adjustment. Moving forward, as long as the relevant indicators can successfully cross and stabilize above the critical point of 0.323, ETH is sure to experience a very fierce upward explosion.

3.24 Market Trend Deep Analysis: The cryptocurrency sector is about to experience the most significant rebound in this round of bear market.

In the past one and a half months, the market has undergone a prolonged consolidation period. During this time, we have observed that BTC's bottom support is steadily rising, indicating that it is well-prepared for a significant upward push. From a conservative perspective, BTC is expected to pull back and rise to around 80,000; if the rebound is stronger, it may reach a high of 85,000. Meanwhile, ETH's subsequent price is also expected to recover to around 2,600.

Turning our attention to the traditional financial sector, the current stock market trend has clearly shifted from bullish to bearish. With the risks of macroeconomic recession and potential interest rate hikes being gradually digested and realized by the market, the stock market will face significant resistance in the coming stages, making it difficult to return to the previous bullish support levels.

As for gold within the commodity sector, its price trend has currently confirmed a peak. However, it is important to note that this critical level of top formation will not be completed rapidly in a short period. In the coming months, gold is likely to exhibit a sustained and wide-ranging oscillation within the price range of 3900 to 5300.

March 23 Market Observation: Stock Markets and Precious Metals Suffer Major Setbacks, Cryptocurrency Market Continues to Rebound

Recently, global financial market volatility has intensified, with various asset classes showing clear differentiation in trends. A review of past market patterns reveals that significant increases in oil prices often transmit high inflation pressures to the macroeconomic level, thereby triggering concerns about economic recession. This is one of the core logics that has driven traditional stock markets into bear markets. The recent performance of the stock market confirms this pressure, as the US and A-shares, which had previously experienced rises, subsequently exhibited a downward break. The Asian markets have also been notably affected, with Japan and South Korea's stock indices both experiencing a substantial decline of over 4% during early trading.

In terms of commodities and precious metals, gold and silver have also encountered severe crashes. There are two main reasons for this situation: on one hand, some previously accumulated funds have opted to take profits; on the other hand, the delay in expectations for interest rate cuts has directly triggered a rapid surge in government bond yields. Against the backdrop of rising overall yields, non-interest-bearing assets like gold have significantly decreased in attractiveness to capital, resulting in concentrated market sell-offs.

Although traditional macro assets are generally facing significant downward pressure, the rebound in the cryptocurrency market has not yet ceased. Taking BTC as an example, its subsequent upward momentum still exists. Analyzing the overall market trends, as long as the price does not break below the critical level of 65600 in the short term, BTC can still maintain a trend of oscillating upward with a continuously rising bottom focus.

3.23 Market Dynamics Analysis: Global Stock Markets Face Significant Setbacks, Cryptocurrency Rebound Continues

Hello everyone, today I bring you the latest market observations. The current performance of the global equity markets is under considerable pressure. Following the previous decline of both the US and A-shares breaking important support levels, the Asian markets have also been significantly affected, with stock indices in Japan and South Korea both experiencing sharp declines of over 4% during the morning session. Looking back at historical experience, the rapid increase in oil prices usually pushes the stock market into a bear market cycle, as high inflation ultimately transmits to the real economy and triggers a recession.

Meanwhile, the precious metals sector has also seen significant fluctuations. The sharp drop in gold and silver prices is primarily due to some funds choosing to take profits. Additionally, due to the delayed expectations of interest rate cuts in macro policy, government bond yields have surged rapidly, which has directly led to a concentrated sell-off in assets like gold that do not generate interest income.

Despite the traditional financial markets facing numerous challenges, the performance of digital currencies shows a different rhythm. Currently, the rebound of BTC is far from over. In the upcoming trends, as long as its price does not fall below the key defense line of 65600, the overall pattern will still maintain a trend of continuously rising bottoms.