thosansong

If you guys like the way I analyze, you can join the community to discuss in real time about BTC / XAU/...

Below is the old plan I posted in the community, and every day I’ll continue posting the plan.

👉👉See and join here: @thosansongchat / @thosansongchannel

In the group, I’ll chat with you guys about anything you’re curious about, and I’ll also compile the most common questions to cover in livestreams and answer them together with you.

Everything is free—no extra fees at all, guys.

Above, I only post about 1–2 posts per day, so if you want updates faster, come into the group so it’s easier to follow and discuss with me directly.

Bitcoin ATM machines are gradually disappearing

In just the first 6 months of 2026, the number of Bitcoin ATMs worldwide dropped from 39,158 to 28,322 machines—an almost 28% decrease. Notably, 96% of the machines removed came from the United States

In my opinion, this isn’t a sign that crypto is declining, but that the infrastructure is changing. Technology always evolves—what’s more convenient will replace the old

On one hand, more and more people are trading directly on exchanges or using on-chain wallets, so the demand for ATMs is falling. On the other hand, the US has also tightened regulations after a string of Bitcoin ATM scam cases, driving operating costs higher. Even one of the biggest Bitcoin ATM operators in the US has filed for bankruptcy this year

If these Bitcoin ATM machines come to Vietnam, do they have room to shine, guys—will you fomo or switch to p2p on a cex for speed? ?? 🤓

📌 BTC 3/7 - 5/7: The weekend could easily see a double-sided sweep...

Yesterday, BTC had a fairly good rebound after the NFP news, rising from the 60k area to around 61k-62k. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, if it reclaims 60k8-61k2, it will reduce the priority of shorts, and the rebound could extend to 62k5-64k.

Right now, BTC has reclaimed the 60k8-61k2 zone, so the short-term outlook is more positive. The H1-H4-H12-1D timeframes are building up again quite well. Currently, there’s a reaction at the 62k key level, but the swing still isn’t leaning toward a SHORT.

The most important news is that last night’s US NFP came in weaker than expected. The US added only about 57k jobs, below the 110k forecast, and unemployment stayed at 4.2%. This data reduces concerns about the Fed raising interest rates further, giving BTC a reason to rebound.

However, from today until 5/7, the US market is off for the National Day holiday. US stocks are closed, traditional liquidity is thin, while crypto still runs 24/7. This is exactly the kind of weekend where a double sweep can easily happen—especially since BTC has just bounced up toward nearby resistance.

📈 Current strategy:

I’m not prioritizing strong shorts as much as in the past few days. If BTC holds above 60k8-61k2, then I’ll prioritize buying on pullbacks during the M5-M15 rebounds to ride the H1-H4 trend, with the near target around 62k5-64k.

But if BTC loses 60k8 again, be careful—because then the reclaim could turn into a bull trap. At that point, price may get pulled back to 59k-58k8, and even deeper to 56k-55k if selling pressure returns.

Shorts can still be traded, but only as quick scalps when BTC reaches 62k5-64k and the move is weak, unable to hold the new highs.

👉 Main view: If 60k8-61k2 is held, there’s still room for another rebound. If that zone is lost, then close up and wrap it (bỉm).

Live later at 15:00. Anyone who hasn’t joined my group chat yet, check the pinned post at the top!

📌 BTC 2/7 - Which vehicle to board...

Yesterday, BTC bounced from 57.8k back to around 60k-61k. This move helps the price temporarily escape the dangerous zone around 58k, but to say BTC is returning to an uptrend is still a bit early—however, there are already some positive signs.

Looking at technicals, 60k8-61k2 is currently the nearest resistance. If you don’t take a multi-timeframe (TG) view well, many people will still look to short at this resistance area, as in previous retest attempts. However, right now the H1-H2-H4-H6-H8-H12-1D timeframes have all aligned and are entering the process of building up their own uptrend.

The most important news today is the Nonfarm Payrolls at 19:30 VN time, along with the unemployment rate and average wages. This set of data will determine how the market interprets the Fed.

If NFP is strong, unemployment doesn’t rise, and wages stay high, the market will think the Fed doesn’t need to ease yet. Then DXY/yields may jump, and BTC is likely to be pushed down again.

On the other hand, if employment weakens moderately—without being bad enough to trigger recession fears—BTC could benefit from expectations of interest-rate cuts returning.

📈 Current strategy:

This time, the plan will prioritize M5 and M15 pullback points to long and continue riding the trend across the H to 1D timeframes.

No longer prioritizing SHORT. Since the larger timeframe signals have turned, if shorting is done at all, it should only be short for scalping, then exit quickly.

This afternoon at 15:00 live, by the way—if you haven’t joined my group chat yet, check the pinned post at the top of the page.

📌 BTC 1/7 - Can it withstand 58k ???

Yesterday, BTC still couldn’t break above 60k8, and this morning it dipped to 57k8 before bouncing back around 58k8-59k. This support zone is being tested very intensely, and there isn’t any convincing buying pressure yet.

From the technical analysis perspective, the structure is still leaning bearish. The larger timeframes from 2D to 1M are in full agreement on “FULL DUMP”. The smaller timeframe is currently only a technical rebound after the drop. These rebound moves should still be viewed as bounces for setting up shorts.

Today’s news is quite packed. In the afternoon, there’s European inflation. In the evening, the US has ADP at 19:15, a speech by Kevin Warsh around 20:00, and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 21:00 (Vietnam time). These are all news items that are likely to cause BTC to swing sharply because they are directly related to interest-rate expectations.

Last night, US Consumer Confidence ticked up slightly, but the assessment of jobs weakened. That means the market is in a gray area: too weak and people fear a recession, but too strong and the Fed has reason to keep interest rates high.

Personal viewpoint:
BTC doesn’t need any further bad news to keep falling. Just a lack of buying force is enough to make it difficult for the price to bounce. The recent ETF still has many strong outflow sessions. Short-term holders are under pressure, and the price has been below resistance for too long.

📈 Current strategy:

- I still prioritize SHORT over LONG. A good short entry zone is when BTC rebounds up to 59k8-60k8, but the strength is weak and it can’t break through resistance.

- SL can be considered around 61k2, or wider at 62k2 if trading a swing. The near-term TP is still 56k-55k.

- During the day, you can still scalp short-term LONG, but now there’s M30 SHORT timing that overlaps with tonight’s news release time, so be careful.

Tonight I’ll be live at 20:00. If you haven’t joined my group chat yet, check the pinned post at the top!

📌 BTC 30/6 - This week is not easy to breathe...

Today, BTC is still moving quite uncomfortably, continuing to hover around the 59k-60k zone. After a sweep down to 58k, the price hasn’t fully broken down, but the rebound force isn’t strong enough to confirm a clean return to an uptrend.

From a technical analysis (PTKT) perspective, the larger timeframes from 1D to 1M are all in agreement: “FULL DECLINE.” Therefore, any rebound should still be viewed as a bounce within a weaker trend beforehand.

My personal macro outlook for this week:

BTC isn’t weak because of a single bad news story; it’s weak due to a lack of fresh buying power. The ETF has still been seeing outflows, short-term holders are still selling at a loss, and macro conditions continue to revolve around whether US interest rates will remain kept high or not.

If employment data remains strong, the market will interpret that the Fed doesn’t need to loosen policy yet. In that case, BTC is unlikely to surge strongly because large money is still in defensive mode. Conversely, if jobs weaken but not too badly, BTC could benefit from expectations that rate cuts may return.

📈 Current strategy:

I don’t really like going LONG right now, because resistance at 60k8 has been tested again 4-5 times, and the price has stayed below that zone for 4-5 days. That indicates the buying pressure isn’t strong enough to break upward.

The SHORT scenario is still preferred. Stop-loss could be considered above 61k2 or wider above 62k2, since the D-W-M frames still support the decline. The near-term feasible take-profit is the area below 55k-56k.

👉 Main view: If BTC holds 58k8-59k, there’s still room for a rebound. If it loses this zone, then it’s cooked.

Wishing everyone an effective trading and working day 💰🔥!

This evening I’ll still be live at 15:00 and 20:00. If you haven’t joined my group chat yet, check the pinned post at the top!

📌 BTC 29/6 - Will the upcoming July monthly candle be different from the past?

Last week, BTC had as many as 4 phases of sweeping down to the 58k-59k bottom, but it still held and wasn’t broken decisively thanks to support from the 1D framework. However, you should still be careful with the current bottom-buying moves.

The main trend across timeframes from H12 - 1D, 2D - 1M is still a fully bearish trend. So if you want to swing trade and catch big waves, you should still prioritize SHORT over LONG (until around July 15-20, if BTC continues to hold the 58-59k zone—then we can reassess).

Right now, BTC seems to want to enter a correction phase of the H timeframes such as H4 H6 H8. But the rebound wave may be quite unpleasant in terms of structure. So if you do want to go LONG, you should choose slightly farther SL points.

📈 Current strategy:

- You can wait for correction waves on smaller timeframes like M5 M15 to catch the next upward wave from H1 and H4. But since current LONG positions are going against the main trend, trading it is quite intense—and the profit won’t be much unless you can choose an SL point with good RR.

- More relaxed approach: wait for a swing SHORT order on the H timeframes and ride the main trend. And if BTC can’t hold 58-59k by mid-July, chances are it will turn bearish again.

👉👉 Specifically, the orders and positions I’ll share for free and directly in the group as well as in the daily livestream. If you haven’t joined the group yet, message me privately or check the pinned post at the top.

Wishing you all an effective trading day 💰🔥!

Tonight’s livestream at 8pm—see you, brothers. Join my private group through the pinned post at the top, everyone.

📌 BTC 26/6 - Expiration coming up, playing it cool bro...

Today, BTC is moving in a very annoying way: it just swept down into the 58k zone, then pulled back and rebounded around 59k8-60k.

From the technical chart, BTC hasn’t fully broken yet, but it also doesn’t have enough strength to confirm a beautiful return to the uptrend. The smaller timeframes are getting quite noisy and choppy today because there is a big options expiration at 15:00 VN time, so short pump-and-dump moves within the day are pretty normal.

The most important zone right now is still 58k-59k. If this level holds and after the expiration the price isn’t sold off again, BTC can rebuild the rebound wave and potentially run back to 62k-63k first; only then should we think further about 65k-67k.

If after 15:00 BTC breaks 58k instead, then be more careful, because at that point it may no longer just be derivative/expiration-driven shakeouts—there could be real sell pressure. Then the 56k-55k zone will likely be pulled back to for a retest.

📈 Current strategy:

Right now I’m not prioritizing FOMO longs chasing in the middle of the range. If you want to long, wait for price to come back to 58k-59k and show a clear reaction, then enter; or wait for BTC to reclaim 60k8-61k5 with strong force, and a retest long would be safer.

As for shorting, you also shouldn’t short randomly just where price is currently pulling back. The cleaner short scenario would be BTC rebounding up to 61k5-62k5 or any zone where the momentum is weak—if the smaller timeframes keep breaking down and drifting lower, then shorting the bounce and targeting the bounce down becomes easier.

In general, today is better to time after 15:00 rather than trying to predict the expiration. Before expiration, price is very likely to whip both directions and leave people lost.

👉 My main view: if BTC holds 58k, then there’s still a chance for a rebound back up to 62k-65k. If it loses 58k, be careful about a deeper push toward 55k-56k.

Wishing everyone an effective trading day 💰🔥!

This afternoon there’s a live session at 16:00. If you haven’t joined my group chat yet, check the pinned post at the top!